FP7 Climate Change Research

Transcription

1 1 FP7 Climate Change Research Programme Environment (including climate change) European Commission DG Research & Innovation Environment Directorate Wolfram SCHRIMPF Deputy Head of the Unit Climate change and natural hazards Needs for regional response to risks of climate change Hanse-Office Brussels, 8 November 2011

2 2 FP7 structure and budget FP7 Indicative breakdown ( million)

3 FP7 research climate change-related priorities 3 Understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impacts Providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, costs and benefits of different policy options for mitigation and adaptation Improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climatefriendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future Focused on four main thematic areas: Environment (total budget 1.89 billion) Energy (total budget 2.35 billion) Transport (total budget 4.16 billion) Space and Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) (total budget 1.43 billion)

4 ENVIRONMENT (including climate change) 4 Climate change research is carried out under all its headings: Climate change, pollution and risks From the development of the knowledge base, to modelling and projections, to the assessment of vulnerabilities-impacts and costs, to adaptation and mitigation strategies Sustainable Management of Resources In particular on the effects of climate change on biodiversity, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, seas and oceans Environmental Technologies Low carbon technologies, C-removal technologies, resource efficiency Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development Climate-related observing systems, data management About 100 projects more than 500 M funding on climate change research in the first 5 FP7 calls

5 5 Areas of research Climate processes and modelling Role of the oceans Carbon and nitrogen cycles Arctic research Atmosphere pollution and processes Water resources Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation Economics of climate change and mitigation pathways

6 6 Climate processes and modelling Modelling activities in FP7 Development of models for climate prediction and projection Research on basic climate processes (e.g. cloud physics, ocean/atmosphere interactions, climate systems like El Niño/La Niña, etc.) PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY Past4Future: Climate dynamics and abrupt changes analysis of the paleo-record MODELLING and PROJECTIONS COMBINE: New components in Earth System modelling EUCLIPSE: Process-oriented evaluation of Earth System Models EMBRACE: Earth system model bias reduction TOWARDS CLIMATE SERVICES CLIM-RUN: Provision of local scale climate information (focus on the Mediterranean) ECLISE: Provision of local scale climate information

7 7 Climate processes and modelling COMBINE - overall aim COMBINE brings together leading European modelling centres to face the challenge of building the next generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), to advance the capabilities of climate prediction and projection. It follows previous FP large-scale projects, such as ENSEMBLES from FP6. First achievements Implementation and testing of land use changes and wildfire impacts, processes for the terrestrial and oceanic nitrogen cycles, and processes related to methane emissions from permafrost and wetland changes. Evaluations of cloud-radiation and aerosol-cloud effects and land use impacts on tropospheric chemistry. Incorporation of tropical and polar stratospheric dynamical variability in ESMs. Improved understanding of processes regulating ice-sheet surface energy and mass balances; increased realism of the representation of surface snow processes in both ice-sheet and sea-ice models. A new ocean re-analysis has been conducted using up-to-date quality-controlled ocean observation data sets and atmospheric forcing fluxes, with significant progress in seaice assimilation. Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection

8 8 Role of the oceans Ocean acidification EPOCA - European Project on OCean Acidification Achievements Ocean acidity has increased by 30% in the past 200 years and could increase of at least another 100% by Even if ocean acidification is also a natural event, the current speed at which the ocean is acidifying today is 10 times faster than ever in the last 65 million years. Using 24 years of sea data in the Iceland Sea, surface water acidification in Arctic waters resulted 50% faster than in subtropical regions. 10% of Arctic surface waters will become corrosive to some forms of calcium carbonate in less than 10 years and half will become corrosive by mid-century. MedSeA Mediterranean Sea Acidification in a changing climate Overall aim Identify where the impacts of acidification on Mediterranean waters will be more significant; Generate new observational and experimental data on Mediterranean organisms and ecosystem; Provide best estimates and related uncertainties of future changes in Mediterranean Sea; Combine scientific and socio-economic analyses.

9 Arctic research Preservation of the Arctic in unison with its peoples through a better understanding of its natural and human environment. Key region in the global climate system, undergoing massive and rapid environmental change: Surface temperatures warming twice as fast as the global average, ice thinning faster than anticipated by climate models. Ice2sea overall aim Ice2sea is specifically focussed on the contribution to sea-level rise that will arise from loss of continental glaciers and ice sheets and which give rise to the largest part of the uncertainty in the projections. First achievements Ice2sea has proved that the most important factor concerning melting icesheets is not the air above them but the warmer oceans into which they flow. RECONCILE overall aim In the long run, climate change may radically alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to these changes and the future evolution of Arctic ozone, a complete representation of all relevant processes is necessary. RECONCILE sets out to reach full quantitative understanding of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss. First achievements RECONCILE played a key role in the recent discovery related to the ozone depletion over the Arctic. 9

10 Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Building of a comprehensive knowledge base to identify appropriate adaptation options, to assess their full costs and to support the development of medium and long-term adaptation strategies at national, regional and local scales CLIMSAVE Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Overall aim To develop a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that will allow stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors The tool will also enable stakeholders to explore adaptation strategies for reducing climate change vulnerability, discovering where, when and under what circumstances such actions may help. It will highlight the cost-effectiveness and cross-sectoral benefits and conflicts of different adaptation options and enable uncertainties to be investigated to better inform the development of robust policy responses RESPONSES - European responses to climate change: deep emissions reductions and mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation Overall aim Identify and assess integrated EU climatechange policy responses that achieve ambitious mitigation and environmental targets and, at the same time, reduce the Union s vulnerability to inevitable climate-change impacts. A new set of global low emissions scenarios ( ppm CO2-equivalent) will be developed, considering the EU 2 C objective 10

11 11 Adaptation/Mitigation Strategies Advanced knowledge on full economic costs of Climate Change Duration: 12/ /2011 Co-ordination: Stockholm Environment Institute, UK Paul Watkiss Assoc., UK (scientific co-ordination) Development of CC and socio-economic scenarios, including mitigation scenarios Quantification of their costs Assessment of physical effects and economic damages of major catastrophic events Update of mitigation costs of GHG emission reductions for medium and longterm reduction targets

12 Uncertainty Relative change in flood damage for the 12 RCMs (A1B) Robust decision making in adaptation planning A1B, combination of SES and CC Source Feyen et al JRC ISPRA 12

13 COSTS 13 Adaptation Costs and Benefits - River floods BENEFITS Benefits of adaptation, in billions of Euros per year, to maintain 1 in 100-year levels of flood protection in 2000s ( ), 2020s ( ), 2050s ( ) and 2080s ( ) for the A1B scenario (ensemble mean) based on LISFLOOD simulations driven by 12 regional climate models (all numbers in constant 2006 prices, undiscounted). Large benefits, low costs

14 Annual damage costs (billions euros / year (2005 value)) Coastal Damage Costs by Country Strong distributional patterns across Europe A1B, combination of SES and CC Source Nicholls et al 14

15 Physical Impacts Health Preliminary results Kovats et al Number of Heat Related Deaths from Climate Change (2050), A1B, No acclimatization, by country and by age group. 15

16 16 Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation IMPACT2C - Quantifying projected impacts under 2 C warming Duration 10/ /2015 Co-ordination: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH Climate Service Center (Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob) IMPACT2C will identify and quantify the impacts and most appropriate response strategies of a 2 C global warming for Europe and three selected vulnerable regions in other parts of the world: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins) and the Maldives. The overall aims of IMPACT2C are: Determination of the climate in Europe and most vulnerable regions for a 1.5 C and 2 C global warming compared to pre-industrial level. Consideration of impacts from a cross-sectoral perspective, e.g. for particularly vulnerable areas that are subject to multiple impacts where cumulative effects may arise (e.g. in the Mediterranean region) and in relation to cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities and the built environment).

17 17 Mean annual temperature increase (C ) up to 3 C in the 2 C warming scenario

18 18 Annual total precipitation change (mm/a) in the 2 C warming scenario

19 19 Horizon 2020 ( ) An overall proposed budget of 80 billion A single framework merging research and innovation (FP, CIP, EIT) A simple structure based on three pillars: Excellent science base Industrial leadership & competitive frameworks Tackling societal challenges (also Climate change) Simplification: a common toolkit of funding schemes and a single cost model Increased use of innovative financial instruments Currently discussed inside the Commission, expected for adoption on 30 November 2011

20 20 Europe 2020 priorities Horizon 2020 Objectives and structure International cooperation European Research Area Shared objectives and principles Common rules, toolkit of funding schemes Tackling Societal Challenges Health, demographic change and wellbeing Food security and the bio-based economy Secure, clean and efficient energy Smart, green and integrated transport Climate action & Resource Efficiency including Raw Materials Inclusive, innovative and secure societies Industrial Leadership and Competitive Frameworks Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies (ICT, nano, materials, bio, manufacturing, space) Access to risk finance Innovation in SMEs Simplified access Excellent Science Base European Research Council Future and Emerging Technologies Marie Curie actions on skills, training and career development Research infrastructures Supporting the objectives: European Institute for Innovation and Technology Joint Research Centre Dissemination & knowledge transfer

21 21 Thank you very much for your attention!

22 22 More Information European Research Portal: General information on the Seventh EU Research Framework Programmes: Specific information on research programmes and projects: General information requests: quiries Research for the environment: nvironment/index_en.cfm