Energy Sense. Power System Engineering, Inc. Tom Butz.

Transcription

1 Energy Sense Tom Butz Power System Engineering, Inc. June 15, 2017

2 Energy Sense Energy Education Making Boring Facts Interesting Making Complicated Concepts Easier to Understand Unique Electric System Characteristics Unpack Common Misconceptions Reliability, Reliability, Reliability Keep abreast of Current Issues Energy is not Technology Technology doesn t Heat, Cool, or Move things 2

3 Functional Definition of Energy Energy allows the leveraging of a workforce to create the greatest net economic value. Contrast to Primitive Camping All Time Spent Simply Surviving Contrast to Less Developed Countries Cooking over fire Walking vs. Driving Labor Intensive Construction Sites Significant Elements Instant Mechanical Energy (fuel and electric) Transportation Food Chain Farming, Processing, Transportation & Storage Controlled Climate 3

4 How Much Energy do We Use? Quadrillion Btus (1 x Btu) Quads What is a Quad? Energy to Warm a 270 acre Lake 20 ft deep 70 F to 212 F Thermal Energy in 8 billion gallons of gasoline Breakouts Hydro, 2.5 Renewable, 2.8 Trans, 26.8 Residential, 21 Commercia l, 18 Petro, 35.9 Natural Gas, 26.9 Industrial, 30.7 Coal, 18 Nuclear, 8.3 4

5 Energy Units Summary Energy Usage Is Significant Coal provides 50% or 20.5 Quads of 40.5 Quads Energy Renewable is 3.5 Quads, with 2.4 Quads from Hydro Wind is 0.5 Quads Electric Energy has 27.5 Quads of Losses out of 40.2 Quads Limits to Thermal Efficiency 5

6 Start with a Camp Fire Energy Mechanical Work Provides heat, cooking fuel, light Doesn t Provide Help with Dishes Power to Vacuum Tent Clean heat source Process of Energy Mechanical Work Very Complex Fueled Industrial Revolution Launched Energy Revolution 6

7 Energy Mechanical Work From Campfire to Motion Steam Engine Internal Combustion Engine Steam Turbine Electricity Conventional Fuel Coal, Oil, Natural Gas Nuclear Fuel Solar Combustion Turbine Electricity Conventional Fuel Oil, Natural Gas Other Electricity Sources Wind, Solar, Hydro 7

8 Steam Engine 8

9 Internal Combustion Engine 9

10 10

11 Combustion Turbine Diagram 11

12 Steam Turbine 12

13 Combined Cycle 13

14 Nuclear Plant Turbine Deck 14

15 Hoover Dam Rotor 15

16 Conclusions Thus Far Modern Energy Delivery Has Developed From fire to Many Useful Forms Electricity Generation is Extremely Complex Economy is Fueled by Energy Leverage Labor Our Lives Are Much More Productive With Energy And now for Energy Sense Wind Generation Doesn t Impact Need for Foreign Oil We will have a constant need for gasoline and other fuels to provide our lives with work and convenience 16

17 Examples of Instant Energy More Conclusions Turn the key drive Flip the Switch Electric Power Instant Energy Availability Expectation Need CSX Commercial 1 gal of fuel moves Freight 435 Miles 17

18 Current Usage Gasoline Consumption Approximately 16 Quadrillion Btu or 16% of National Energy Usage Vehicle Usage 2,700 Billion Vehicle Miles/Year CAFE Standard 28 MPG Future 4,203 Billion Vehicle Miles/Year by 2035 Projected 17.6 Quads by 2035 CAFE Standard 40 MPG 18

19 Transportation Breakout of Transportation Fuel Gasoline 16.4 Quads (2,644 billion vehicle miles) Ping maximum electric car potential Energy view Assume 35% efficiency 1,682,300 GWh Electric Energy 480,000 MW of wind assuming 40% Capacity Factor Shape of wind vs. shape of electric charging? Electric Car Trend Ranges expected to dramatically increase to 200 miles / charge More charging Stations Faster Charging Stations Fast Charging in the range of kw Aggravates Shape of supply vs. shape of demand 19

20 Issues for Gasoline Fuel No New Refinery Built in 30 years World-wide Demand for Gasoline Has Driven Price Up Significantly Price Dropped in October 2008 With Slow Economy Danger of High Prices w/economy Recovery Policy Promoting Energy Independence Must Include Domestic Oil Production Energy Density Comparison 115,000 Btu/Gallon = 42,593 Btu/kg 8,516 net Btu/kg with 20% Efficiency NiMH Battery Btu/kg 20

21 Transportation Breakout of Transportation Fuel Gasoline 16.4 Quads (2,644 billion vehicle miles) Ping maximum electric car potential Energy view Assume 35% efficiency 1,682,300 GWh Electric Energy 480,000 MW of wind assuming 40% Capacity Factor Shape of wind vs. shape of electric charging? Electric Car Trend Ranges expected to dramatically increase to 200 miles / charge More charging Stations Faster Charging Stations Fast Charging in the range of kw Aggravates Shape of supply vs. shape of demand 21

22 Digging Deeper 22

23 Generation Sources Central Generation Distributed Generation Transmission System Electric Delivery System High Voltage Three Phase System Alternating Current Allows Voltage Transformation Distribution System Lower Voltage 13.5 kv & 12.8 kv Overhead Older Areas Underground Newer Areas 23

24 Generation Transmission Distribution 24

25 Connections Electric Delivery Generation Transmission Distribution End Use Each Load is Directly Connected to the entire system Transformers Change Voltage for Each Phase Generation Transmission Distribution Delivery and Use is Matched Each Instant of Time Generation + Losses = Electric Usage 25

26 System Frequency 60 hz Delivery Use Matching Frequency Monitored Constantly Frequency Changes Shown in Area Control Error (ACE) Calculated MW of instant mismatch on System Provides information used to send to generation units Changes dispatch of generation on the system seeking to match the generation and load System Protection For Low Frequency Event Three Low Frequency Levels Target 10% load for Each Level 59.3 hz 10% load shed 59.0 hz 10% load shed 58.7, hz 10% load shed 26

27 0:00 0:20 0:40 1:00 1:20 1:40 2:00 2:20 2:40 3:00 3:20 3:40 4:00 4:20 4:40 5:00 5:20 5:40 6:00 6:20 6:40 7:00 7:20 7:40 8:00 8:20 8:40 9:00 9:20 9:40 MISO hourly load MW - 5 Min Values ,

28 T08:00: T08:03: T08:06: T08:09: T08:12: T08:15: T08:18: T08:21: T08:24: T08:27: T08:30: T08:33: T08:36: T08:39: T08:42: T08:45: T08:48: T08:51: T08:54: T08:57: T09:00: T09:03: T09:06: T09:09: T09:12: T09:15: T09:18: T09:21: T09:24: T09:27: T09:30: T09:33: T09:36: T09:39: T09:42: T09:45: T09:48: T09:51: T09:54: T09:57:00 Example of Area Control Error (ACE) MISO - 30 Second ACE - MW ACE is +/- 1% Load Shed Starts at 10% (8,300MW) Largest Gen Units 800MW

29 Questions What Happens to System Frequency(normal 60 hz) when Load is Greater than Generation? Increases Decreases How do electric protection systems react when the System Frequency gets below 59.3 hz? System protection systems automatically shed load System protection sends message to system operators 29

30 Electric Delivery Travels at Nearly Speed of Light Round Trip - New York to Los Angeles 32 times/second Unique to All Other Energy Forms Supply Must Match Usage Each Instant of Time Maintain Thermal Limits, Voltage Profile, Real and Reactive Power, and Overall System Stability Simple Sounding Concept but Extremely Complex 30

31 Daily Operations Forecast Load Hourly Electric Delivery Determine Best Generation to run Call for Dispatch of Generation Monitor Actual Load Real Time Generation Baseload Generation Dispatched First Intermediate and Peaking may Follow Peaks Depending on Load Level 31

32 Planning Cycle Planning Studies Regulatory Approval Design Construction Operating Cycle Seasonal Assessments Electric Delivery Timeframe Adequate Generation and Transmission Weekly, Daily, Hourly, 5 Min, Each Instant 32

33 Hourly Load 8760 Hours / Year 33

34 1 Week Hourly Data 34

35 Generation Dispatch to Meet Load Intermediate/Peaking Baseload Generation 24/7 35

36 36

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38 How Much Wind? 38

39 MISO 2013 Wind Expansion Dispatch Evaluate Scaling Factor to Wind Shape Seek to Minimize both Excess energy and shortfall energy Excel Goal Seek -> Default Factor=1 Resulting Factor -> Scaled Wind Energy Summary Peak 101,098 MW Energy 362,411 GWh Capacity Factor 40.9% Percent of load served 72% 39

40 MW MISO 2013 Hourly Load and Wind

41 MISO 2013 Hourly Load and 10x Wind

42 MISO Wind Expansion Dispatch - Cont Excess Energy 40,253 GWh 51,429 MW Capacity Factor 8.9% Shortfall Energy 181,955 GWh 84,240 MW Capacity Factor = 24.7 % Actual installed capacity would need to be 12% higher due to planning reserves Installation Capacity of 94,372 MW Number of Starts 188 Hours of Operation - 6,154 70% of all Hours 42

43 Energy Storage Analysis Storage considered Very Important with Higher levels of intermittent energy production Use MISO 2013 Load and Wind Shape Each Surplus energy hour placed into storage Each deficit energy hour withdraw from storoage Seek annual adequate energy Requires a wind scaling factor of 16 x existing wind Storage Requirements 80,000 MW peak Over 740 hours of energy storage! Far beyond a daily energy storage need 43

44 Question High Penetrations of Renewable Energy are expected. What percentage of hours could 10 times the current amount of wind serve load in a year? 100% 70% 30% 44

45 Thank You: Power System Engineering, Inc. Name Tom Butz Title Sr Consultant Direct: (763) Mobile: (612)

46 Power System Engineering, Inc. (PSE) is a full-service consulting firm for electric utilities. Our team has extensive experience in all facets of the utility industry, including communications, IT, and smart grid automation; economics, rates, and business planning; electrical engineering; planning and design; and procurement, contracts, and deployment. Established in 1974 to serve the engineering and technology needs of electric cooperatives. Have served more than 250 clients including distribution cooperatives, G&Ts, municipal utilities, and IOUs. 100 % employee owned and managed. About 84 employees with offices in Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, South Dakota, Indiana, and Kansas. PSE is independent: o o o About PSE PSE is a 100 % independent consulting firm with no sales ties or marketing affiliations with any vendors. PSE is NOT a value-added reseller (VAR) of any software, hardware or services from any supplier. Our entire business model is based on being an agent, advocate, resource, and technical advisor to our clients. 46

47 PSE Services Utility Automation Technology Work Plans Integration, Testing, Training and Support Cyber Security & IT Assessments Substation and Distribution Automation Strategic Planning Consulting and Procurement services on SCADA, AMI/AMR, OMS, GIS, CIS, and others Economics & Research Load Forecasting Statistical Performance Measurement (Benchmarking) Market & Load Research Energy Efficiency Demand Side Management (DSM) Value of Service Other Economic Studies Rates & Financial Planning Revenue Requirement Studies Class Cost of Service Studies Rate Design Key Account Services Rate Comparisons & Competitive Assess. Strategic & Financial Planning Communications Strategic Comm. Planning Technology Assessments: Private vs. Commercial Land Mobile Radio Design Radio Path & Propagation Studies Fiber WAN Design & Procurement GIS Mapping & Integration of Communication Assets Microwave & Fixed Data Design & Procurement Engineering & Design System Planning Studies Distributed Generation Strategies Transmission Studies Power Factor Correction Studies System Loss Evaluation Substation Design Line Design 47