Eduardo Perez

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1 JUSTIFYING SMALL LNG SHIPPING FOR INTER-ISLAND TRANSPORTATION AND DISTRIBUTION: FACTORS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS FOR A BUSINESS CASE Eduardo Perez small-lng.com 1

2 Intro Why me? Dow 14 years in Spain, The Netherlands, Argentina and USA Norgas Carriers 2 years in the USA and Singapore Lauritzen Kosan 7 years in Denmark and Spain Own consultancy firm on small scale LNG shipping PLEASE ASK QUESTIONS small-lng.com 2

3 The world today 3

4 LNG Trade Flows small-lng.com Source: 4

5 LNG Trade Flows small-lng.com Source: 5

6 LNG Trade flows

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9 The world tomorrow How Shale gas will change the world in the near-future 9

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12 World Shale gas reserves 12

13 US Natural Gas Pipelines: 3 million miles of pipelines, about the same amount of paved roads 13

14 European Natural Gas Pipelines 14 Source:

15 Opportunities Shale gas will grow at different paces due to political restrictions Lack of pipelines will force Asia to use more ships Global price gaps now, regional price gaps in the near future 15

16 A quick look at Asia 16

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18 Singapore LNG terminal Current capacity: 6 MM MTs per annum 3 tanks with capacity for 540,000 cbms LNG 4th tank in 2018 will increase it to 11 MM MTpa Singapore as a hub for the region Terminal can handle 2 Q-Max and 1 "smaller LNG tanker" at a time Source: 18

19 LNG Infrastructure to support Small LNG Shipping and Distribution Hubs and receiving terminals as market facilitators Singapore terminal South China Sea carriers 50% of the world LNG Asia LNG consumption about 170 MM MTs (2012) Major producers in the area small-lng.com 19

20 How will the development of Small LNG Shipping change trade in Asia? small-lng.com 20

21 SEA: 600 MM ppl / 20,000 islands Source: 21

22 Indonesia LNG facilities & pipelines 22

23 Bali - Small LNG terminal Bontang LNG (East Kalimantan) to Bali Shuttle ship: Surya Satsuma (23,000 cbms) Receiving terminal: FRU + FSU (Chinese NB 26,000 cbms) FSU to be replaced by a new FSU from Korea in 2017 Second small LNG plant in Bali? 23

24 Small LNG Challenges & Opportunities Local cabotage laws Indonesia: importer and exporter of LNG Competing terminals End of fuel subsidies Newcomers to the market: Australia 24

25 A quick look at the Americas So Source: 25

26 Island States and US territories Source: 26

27 Residential electricity prices Source: 27

28 Gas Carriers 28

29 Types of tanks in Gas Carriers: Membrane Best for bigger ships Best for shallow draft 29

30 Types of tanks in Gas Carriers: Moss Best for bigger ships 30

31 Types of tanks in Gas Carriers: Type-C tanks Best for smaller ships Multiproduct 31

32 Small Gas Carriers Fully Pressurized: ambient SemiRefs and FullyRefs: - 48 deg C LEGs (ethylene/ethane carriers): -104 deg C LNG carriers: -162 deg C 32

33 Gas Carriers Pyramid (Type C) º C (LNG) Small LNG Carriers (LEG+LNG) % º C (Ethylene) - 88 º C (Ethane) - 48 º C (PPL) Ambient temp. LEG Carriers (Semi-Ref+Ethylene) % Semi-Ref Carriers (LPG, But, PPL) Pressurized Carriers Small-LNG.com 33

34 What is a Small LNG Carrier From 0 to 40,000 cbms Not a standard. Some people will use other ranges degc 34

35 Shipping is only part of the SC cost Pipeline Liquefactio n Plant LNG Storage LNG Tanker LNG Storage Vaporizers Pipeline 35

36 When and where to use Small LNG carriers Islands Seasonal consumption Isolated places / expensive pipelines Pipeline expansions Pre-marketing / new markets Inland waterways LNG as fuel Pollution restrictions 36

37 Small LNG Carriers - world's fleet Very small fleet, less than 40 ships worldwide Most of them already in a long term deal 37

38 Strictly confidential 38

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51 Subscribe to our newsletter small-lng.com/subscribe 51

52 Small size LNG shipping market 52

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58 Recent Developments in Small Scale Shipping Type C tanks and petchem ShipOwners Multi-product carriers LNG as fuel Advances in design bring new flexibility at load and disports. small-lng.com 58

59 Key Success Factors for Leading players Multiproduct carriers Building against long term T/C contracts Controlled risk Global fleet small-lng.com 59

60 Considerations Dual fuel engine Position of manifolds Multiproduct vs. LNG dedicated Cost Time to change grades 60

61 Yes, but, how much? The theoretical hire of a small LNG carrier is: Ethylene market rate + 20% extra for LNG capabilities So in today s market: - 8,250 cbms ethylene carrier: USD 525,000 pcm - 8,250 cbms LNG carrier should be USD 630,000 pcm (Nov months hire rate) Disclaimer: this is a theoretical calculation based on ship building costs and in a liquid market. This is not a proposal and not an offer. 61

62 Gas Carriers Pyramid (Type C) º C (LNG) Small LNG Carriers (LEG+LNG) % º C (Ethylene) - 88 º C (Ethane) - 48 º C (PPL) Ambient temp. LEG Carriers (Semi-Ref+Ethylene) % Semi-Ref Carriers (LPG, But, PPL) Pressurized Carriers 62

63 Yes, but, how much? (cabotage) In a domestic market, you have to add: Ethylene market rate + 20% extra for LNG capabilities Plus: - Extra cost of legal requirements - Extra costs of local crew - Extra cost of reduced competition 63

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65 Canary Islands random exercise 65

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67 New ideas in Small LNG Shipping 67

68 Source: 68

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71 GTT Membrane shallow draft bunker barge Source: 71

72 Jensen (Crowley) bunker barge Source: 72

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75 LNG Bunkering 75

76 Where are the ships today?

77 Main uses for small LNG carriers Bunker ships for LNG bunkering: Only in Northern Europe Why? ECA restrictions Virtual pipeline: bringing product to remote or isolated locations: Main driver in Asia Mainly in RICH countries (Japan & Norway)

78 LNG as fuel In 2015, seaborne traffic in North America, the US Caribbean, and European waters will be mandated to reduce fuel sulfur content. New barge and ship designs There are 100 LNG fuelled ships today (90% in Norway) DNV predicts 1000 ships by 2020 ( 78

79 Emission Control Areas SOX limits: % % 79

80 LNG as fuel EU subsidies European ports leading with standard bunkering procedures: Dunkirk, Rdam, Zeebrugge, Antwerp (and Singapore) Spanish re-loads Environmental vs economical motivations The mighty USA 80

81 Contracts 81

82 Parties involved in a shipping contract Shipper Charterer Broker / consultant Ship Owner / Ship Operator Receiver (please, never skip them) 82

83 Parties involved - let me sell the consultant's services Shipping is normally a small part of the total project Shipping is a vital part of the project Shipping has to be invisible and RELIABLE The cost of consultants and brokers is significant in absolute terms but minimal in relative terms A consultant will help to optimize, reduce costs and avoid unnecessary mistakes Can you afford NOT having a shipping consultant? 83

84 Shipping Contracts: Types of contracts Spot CoA: Contract of Affreightment T/C: Time Charter 84

85 Shipping Contracts: Cabotage Cabotage adds complexity: Building locally or importing Building locally: Is it possible? (technically,economically) How much? Importing: taxes Temporary import Local company Local flag Local crew (training) Added costs 85

86 Types of contracts: Spot Spot contract: One cargo on one ship for specific dates from A to B Higher prices No long term commitment Extremely dangerous in Small LNG because of the small size of today's world fleet 86

87 Typical Spot indication We are pleased to indicate as per following, 01. Charterers: Charterer A 02. Owners: ShipOwner B as Owners or as disponent Owners. 03. Vessel: LNG X (descriptions as per SIGTTO Form) 04. Cargo: MIN MTs CHOPT UPTO FULL CAP LNG 05. Load: OSP/B Tarragona 06. Discharge: OSP/B Dunkirk 07. Laycan: Laycan Sep 1-15, 2013 to be narrowed by owners to 10 days by 4th Aug and to 5 days by 23rd Aug 08. Freight: USD 200 per metric ton 09. Laytime: 100 mtph load/100 mtph disch shinc reversible 10. Demurrage: USD 23,000 per day prorata. 11. Last cargo: LNG 12. Presentation: Under LNG vapours ready to load 13. LoadTemp: Please indicate. In case cooling is required, additional costs will have calculated. 14. Distchtemp: Please indicate. In case cooling is required, additional costs will have calculated. 15. CP: Asbatankvoy Charter Party with logical amendments. 16. Comms: 2pct comm to Broker C 17. Agents: Owners agents both ends. 18. Approvals: Big Corp D approval 19 Other Terms: ShipOwner B stardard LNG terms 87

88 Types of contracts: CoA CoA: Contract of Affreightment A contract for a certain number of cargoes in a certain period among different ports. Better for complex trades with Ship Owners with big fleets. Freight includes: Port costs Bunkers Crew Ship maintenance 88

89 Typical CoA indication COA Indication: Date: 6 Aug 2013 Subject: Charterer A reconfirmation latest within 22 July Charterers: Charterer A, Finland Owners: ShipOwner B, Greece Contract Type: Contract of Affreightment Period: 1st February st December 2014 Shipments: Minimum 1 charterers option up to 4 shipments during the contract period. Additional shipments by mutual agreement. Tonnage: ShipOwner B newbuilding LNG carriers (descriptions as per Gas Form C), suitable for both the carriage of refrigerated LNG and the ports covered in this COA. Vessels are to be subject to charterers suppliers receivers ship vetting acceptance. Product to be Shipped: Refrigerated LNG Cargo Quantity per Shipment: Charterers option up to full cargo. Loading: OSP/B Tarragona at a temperature of approximately minus 161 degrees centigrade. Discharge: In charterers option 1 or 2 safe ports, one safe berth each port, in charterer s option, from within the following ranges: A) Mediterranean Freight: A) Mediterranean: USD 888,000 LS If a second discharge port is declared, then an additional USD 65,000 lumpsum will be added to the highest applicable freight rate. Laytime per Shipment: Loading : 100 mts per hour shinc Discharging : 150 mts per hour shinc Laytime fully reversible Additional 12 hours if second discharge port declared. Demurrage: USD 55,000 pdpr Shipment Schedule: TBA Last cargo: TBA Vessel Presentation: Vessel is to present all cargo tanks and associated systems at LNG loadport under shore supplied nitrogen atmosphere with max 0.2 pct oxygen content by volume with a dew point of max minus 45 degrees C. Ship Vetting: Owners agree to co-operate fully with charterers suppliers receivers ship vetting personnell, including any requests to physically inspect/visit vessels while at building yard, load and discharge ports. 89

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91 Types of contracts: T/C T/C: Time Charter A ship gets hired for a certain period of time. Most likely scenario for Small LNG in the short term The hire includes: Crew Ship maintenance The hire doesn't include: Bunkers Port costs 91

92 Building against a T/C A Charterer need a ship to move LNG A ShipOwner agrees to build a ship against a long-term T/C deal (15-25 years) ShipOwner contracts a ShipYard and builds Ships enters long term T/C Charterer pays a monthly hire for the life of the contract Purchasing option after a certain period Replacement option Early cancellation clauses and engines 92

93 Typical T/C indication TIME CHARTER for Charterer: Charterer A (please provide full style) Owner: ShipOwner B, Greece. Vessels: 1,700 cbm LNG carrier LNG Carrier C (Basic specifications attached ) Period: Two years. Lay/can: Jan 1st, 2014 to Feb 31st 2014, to be narrowed down to 15 days by Charterers upon signature of the C/P. Owners to narrow down from 15 days to 10 days one month before delivery. Delivery: SEA Redelivery: SEA Trading range: Worldwide always within IWL Products: LNG Hire: US$ 666,000 pcm. Hire to be annually adjusted by a mutually agreeable inflation factor C/P: Shelltime 4 suitably and logically amended Description: Capacity 2 tanks total 1,700 cubic metres Commission: 3pct paid to Broker C Other clauses: Charterer to have the option to redeliver the ships to Owners at any time after the end of year number one. Three months notice is required. 93

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95 Considerations for small LNG shipping in South East Asia Lack of available tonnage Have to look at the whole picture: Indonesia + Malaysia + Philippines + Singapore + Australia Using synergies and existing experience in other markets Innovation and right technology for each project 95

96 South East Asia - near future Many new opportunities for FSUs and FSRUs Lack of ships Use of existing tonnage (Pavillion from Singapore) The importance of planning Opportunities for international players (Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, etc) 96

97 Floating LNG 97

98 FSRU / FLNG / FSPO / FRU / FSU FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas FPSO: Floating Production, Storage and Offloading FRU: Floating Regasification Unit FSU: Floating Storage Unit 98

99 Bali - Small LNG terminal Bontang LNG (East Kalimantan) to Bali Shuttle ship: Surya Satsuma (23,000 cbms) Receiving terminal: FRU + FSU (Chinese NB 26,000 cbms) FSU to be replaced by a new FSU from Korea in 2017 Second small LNG plant in Bali? 99

100 Small scale FSRUs Pros: Low(er) costs than on-shore terminals (?) Faster deployment Flexibility Adaptability Cons: No transfer of expertise Smaller impact in local employment Only a handful of companies in the market (for now) 100

101 Small scale FSUs Pros: Great opportunities reconditioning existing tonnage Faster deployment Flexibility Adaptability Cons: No transfer of (limited) expertise Smaller impact in local employment 101

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103 Considerations for FSRUs/FSUs in South East Asia Lack of available tonnage Availability of older and bigger tonnage Small scale LNG carriers acting as FSUs will reduce the available fleet 103

104 Supply Chain Analysis 104

105 Supply Chain Analysis Load port(s): berth, storage and restrictions FSU/FSRU/FLNG Disport(s): berth, storage and restrictions Ports congestions Milk-runs vs. one-to-one distribution Optimal tonnage vs. available tonnage 105

106 Supply Chain Analysis: items to consider Seasonality and scalability of the solution: will it survive the pass of time? One ship vs several ships solution: One ship: More economical Less flexible More risky (vessel downtime) Several ships: Redundancy Risk of delays Risk of failure Maintenance and drydocking 106

107 Your case, can we help What is your case? Do you want to share? Not ready to openly share? Please contact me after the workshop if you want to discuss your options. 107

108 THANK YOU Eduardo Perez Small-LNG.com

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