The climate impact of forestry extends beyond its carbon budget. Sebastiaan Luyssaert

Transcription

1 The climate impact of forestry extends beyond its carbon budget Sebastiaan Luyssaert

2 Paris Agreement Article 2 Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial [ ], recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Article 5 Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases [ ], including forests. Article 7 [ ] makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems. [ ] greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts. UNFCCC, 2015

3 Paris Agreement Article 2 Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial [ ], recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Article 5 Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases [ ], including forests. Article 7 [ ] makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems. [ ] greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts.. UNFCCC, 2015

4 Paris Agreement Article 2 Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial [ ], recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Article 5 Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases [ ], including forests. Article 7 [ ] makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems. [ ] greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts. UNFCCC, 2015

5 Paris Agreement Article 2 Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial [ ], recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Article 5 Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases [ ], including forests. Article 7 [ ] makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems. [ ] greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts. UNFCCC, 2015

6 Height above sea level (m) From Paris to the Earth system ,000 12,000 Top of the troposphere Atmosphere Planetary boundary layer Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

7 Height above sea level (m) From Paris to the Earth system ,000 12,000 Article 2 Top of the troposphere Atmosphere Article 7 Planetary boundary layer Article 5 Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

8 Height above sea level (m) The basics of the radiative balance ,000 12,000 out IN = OUT in Top of the troposphere Absorbance Reflectance Atmosphere CO2 Water vapor Condensation nuclei Planetary boundary layer Reflectance Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

9 Height above sea level (m) The basics of climate change ,000 12,000 Δ out << 0 IN >> OUT in Top of the troposphere Δ Absorbance Atmosphere CO2 Water vapor Condensation nuclei Planetary boundary layer Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

10 Height above sea level (m) Article 5 A carbon perspective ,000 12,000 Δ out < 0 IN > OUT in Top of the troposphere Δ Absorbance Reflectance Atmosphere CO2 Water vapor Condensation nuclei Planetary boundary layer Reflectance Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

11 Height above sea level (m) Article 2, 5 & 7 An Earth system perspective ,000 12,000 Δ out? IN > OUT in Top of the troposphere Δ Absorbance Δ Reflectance Atmosphere CO2 Water vapor Condensation nuclei Planetary boundary layer Δ Reflectance Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

12 Assessing the net climate effect Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Wood transformation: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Roughness

13 Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Transformations: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Sensible heat Roughness Assessing the net climate effect Net Climate effect (includes feedbacks) Biogeochemical forcing GHG sink GHG accounting Biophysical forcing (Non) radiative Top of the troposphere Planetary boundary layer Land surface Bottom of the biosphere

14 Assessing the net climate effect Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Transformations: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Sensible heat Roughness Net Climate effect (includes feedbacks) ARTICLE 5 Biogeochemical forcing GHG sink GHG accounting Biophysical forcing (Non) radiative 26 Pg C

15 Assessing the net climate effect Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Transformations: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Sensible heat Roughness Net Climate effect (includes feedbacks) ARTICLE 2, 5 & 7 Biogeochemical forcing GHG sink GHG accounting Biophysical forcing (Non) radiative 7 Pg C

16 Assessing the net climate effect

17 Assessing the net climate effect Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Transformations: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Sensible heat Roughness Net Climate effect (includes feedbacks) Biogeochemical forcing GHG sink GHG accounting Biophysical forcing (Non) radiative Earth system models Integrated assessment models (economic feedbacks!) Observations Life cycle analysis Simple models Complex models

18 Assessing the net climate effect Soil: CO2, CH4, N2O Litter: CO2 Biomass: CO2 Land-use: CO2, CH4, N2O Land-cover: CO2 Disturbances: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Management: CO2 Transport: CO2 Transformations: CO2 Wood products: CO2 Landfilling: CO2, CH4 Avoided emissions: CO2, CO, CH4, N2O Albedo Emissivity BVOCs Sensible heat Roughness Net Climate effect (includes feedbacks) Biogeochemical forcing GHG sink GHG accounting Biophysical forcing (Non) radiative High uncertainty on the sign of the net change Low uncertainty on the sign of the gross changes Moderate uncertainty on the magnitude of the gross changes

19 Article 2, 5 & 7 An Earth system perspective - When managing the carbon balance of a forest, unintended but unavoidable changes in surface properties and behavior occur. These should be accounted for when assessing the climate impact of forest management. - Carbon-management and climate-management should not be used interchangeable