2nd annual RUG meeting

Transcription

1 1 st RUG meeting 2 4 December 2013 Oceanographic Museum, Monaco 2nd annual RUG meeting Acting on ocean acidification: getting ahead of the curve January 2015 Oceanographic Museum, Monaco Photo credit: Underwater Earth

2 With thanks to our partners and sponsors

3 Key information Wifi is available in this meeting room log on to Oceano Museum and the connection will be made after accepting terms and condition Numbers for OA-iRUG dinner? Confirm attendance by coffee break Departure times for Saturday? Wear name tags at all times and please return to us at end of meeting Advice will follow from IUCN on claiming flights/receipts

4 Reference User Group concept It was first applied to the EU COST-IMPACT programme (Costing the impact of demersal fisheries on the marine environment) to ensure the relevance, userfriendliness and outreach of the research. The RUG concept has since been applied to other projects including IMCO 2 (The Implications of CO 2 in Marine Ecosystems ) and most recently for the EPOCA Project (European Project on Ocean Acidification 2008 for 4 years).

5 The Ocean Acidification international Reference User Group Established in 2013 Examine in detail the types of data, analyses and products that are most useful to managers, policy advisers, decision makers and politicians in explaining ocean acidification; Take a major role in the process of ocean acidification science to policy knowledge transfer; and Achieve wider society engagement and understanding of the implications of ocean acidification, in conjunction with other global environmental stressors such as warming and deoxygenation.

6 Objectives for this meeting The core aim of the RUG meeting is to determine: What is feasible to achieve by way of forecasting over the next 10 years? What we can already do based on current resources? What do we ideally need to do? (see conceptual framework in agenda) What additional resources are needed to fund the ideal approach we jointly create? What new capacity is needed in the community to deliver the ideal approach?

7 Remember!! Guidance to chairs, panellists and speakers!!! Time is limited SO please keep electronic notes of your comments and ideas on each session and on Friday send to and

8 Outcome A publication ready in time for Paris COP Acting on ocean acidification: getting ahead of the curve that: Highlights lessons and implications from earth s history Managing increasing risk Reaffirms the need for rapid and significant cuts in CO 2 emissions Sets out an agenda for action to develop forecasting capacity and capabilities 8-side report, launch?september 2015.BROAD BRUSH STROKES

9 3 rd RUG meeting in Paris Focus on gaps in science and new science questions arising from the 2 nd RUG meeting and outcomes of socio-economics workshops Arrivals: Sunday 5 th July Meeting: 6 th (debating the science) and 7 th July (creating the conclusion) Venue: UNESCO

10 Objectives for this meeting This meeting will also be used to inform and build further development of the Monaco Ocean Acidification Action Plan 2 page policy summary Longer informative guide Launch June 2015 Help with revising sections Confirmation of image rights Offers of translation Languages English, French and?? Timing for release Hard copies

11 Thursday 15 th AGENDA Friday 16 th Welcome Self-introductions tour of the room Why do we need a Forecasting system? Break What should we focus on? Lunch How do we link biochemical forecast models to biological impacts? Break What do stakeholders want to know? What regions of the world would we focus on and why? Break Who should be involved? Lunch What do we need to make this happen? Break What are the next steps leading to an action plan for implementation? XPRIZE OA-iRUG Le Saint

12 Self-introduction of participants Please say who you are, which country and your job..

13 Session 1: Why do we need a forecasting system? Chair: Dan Laffoley/John Baxter Panelists: Dan Laffoley, Jan Newton, Libby Jewett and Dick Feely Speaker: Jim Orr Plenary discussion: How can models be used to address globalscale policy issues?

14 Getting ahead of the curve Progressive and measurable ocean acidification under way Even if Paris COP agreed significant emission cuts we are locked into physical and chemical ocean change Areas of ocean are vulnerable with some regions already feeling the changes Need to get ahead of the curve by creating mechanisms by which vulnerable areas can be advised on degree, rate and nature of future change So need to build on science and economics work, marry the aspirations of an observing system with the needs of vulnerable areas, and inform a new blue alliance of concerned and vulnerable nations and states

15 OA is a global condition with local effects Source: IPCC Report pco 2

16 OA: Washington s natural environment, local economies, and cultural resources Washington is the US s leading producer of farmed oysters, clams, and mussels. OA has the potential to impact the state s $2 billion seafood industry which generates over 42,000 jobs. Washington has already seen production failures at Pacific Northwest oyster hatcheries between Such losses will intensify as the ocean s acidity is predicted to increase by % over pre-industrial levels by 2100, making it more corrosive to shellfish.

17 OA: Washington s response Recognizing the risks of OA to Washington, Governor Christine Gregoire created the Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel on OA in Washington became a leader by looking at what a state could do to address OA. The Panel recommended 42 actions that collectively form a comprehensive strategy for addressing OA in Washington s marine waters. Funded are: 1) Monitoring; 2) Forecasting; 3) Biological expts on local spp. The work of the Panel is well known, inspiring other U.S. states to follow WA s lead in developing regional action plans to address OA.

18 Lines of defense for adaptation Real-time observations at the hatchery or growing sites Communicated!! Real-time observations at the adjacent estuary, sea, or ocean Regional forecasts on days to weeks scale (weather) Forecasts at months to years scale (seasonal to interannual)

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20 Forecast model output for sea surface temperature, specifically colored for water temperatures that tuna favor (red) vs. are not found in (blue)

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22 Decisions Information

23 OA is a global condition with local effects We need local through global scale ecosystem observations and forecast modeling in order to get understanding of either scale correct This issue demands our coordination, networked skill, open analysis & communication

24 Types and Scales of Models Needed - Jewett Global Ocean Models Will help us understand and predict changes in the surface open ocean geochemistry. These exist. Coastal Models (geochemistry to biology to economies) But if we are going to provide information useful to local areas, we will need coastal models which are much more difficult to build quickly for lots of areas. Must incorporate upwelling, winds, nutrients, biology, currents etc. And ideally they will link to ecological models so we can provide information to help communities adapt Models help us also test our knowledge of these complex systems! But we can only do this if we have ocean observations (including biological observations) to validate them. Necessary if people are going to rely on them to make societal change

25 Goals: Ocean Acidification Measurement Tools Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Improve understanding of acidification conditions Improve understanding of ecosystem response Provide data for model validation 62 Scientists from 30 countries are currently participating in the network URL:

26 Goals: Ocean Acidification Measurement Tools Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Improve understanding of acidification conditions Improve understanding of ecosystem response Data Gaps 1) Arctic Ocean 2) South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans 3) Southern Ocean Provide data for model validation

27 Ocean Acidification Measurement Tools Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Wave Gliders Profiling Gliders

28 Comparison to ship-based sections Top: Ship section on Sept 11 Bottom - Glider section Sept (headed onshore) on the Oregon coast. Aragonite Saturation State Dissolved Oxygen in µmol kg -1 Juranek et al (in preparation)

29 Ocean Acidification Measurement Tools Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Wave Gliders Profiling Gliders Automated pco 2, DIC System for Hatcheries the Burkeolator

30 Ocean Acidification Measurement Tools Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Wave Gliders Profiling Gliders

31 Where does GOA-ON need to be? fill in gaps add biology