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1 Backgound Note Q-Tool Extensions ZEW Mannheim Competitiveness Implications of Euopean Leadeship in Climate Policy 1 Intoduction The tem competitiveness has tuned into a catchwod in vtually evey political debate on new egulatoy poposals. Howeve, the notion of competitiveness vaies widely and is subject to contovesial judgments. s a pominent opponent to the inflationay use of the catchwod competitiveness, Kugman (1994) states that competitiveness is a meaningless wod when applied to national economies. nd the obsession with competitiveness is both wong and dangeous. On the othe hand, national govenments and intenational oganizations seek to assess policy intefeence with espect to some constuctive indicatos on competitiveness. Within the Euopean Union, the Euopean Council stated the so-called Lisbon pocess in 2000 which established the issue of competitiveness as a pioity aea fo EU policy. The seventh edition of the Commissions Repot on Euopean Competitiveness (EU 2003) undestands competitiveness to mean high and ising standads of living of a nation with the lowest possible level of involuntay unemployment, on a sustainable basis. Reflecting the policy pioities within the EU, thee is the need to measue egulatoy decisions against the effects on competitiveness. In fst place, this eques the definition of measuable indicatos fo competitiveness: n issue that can not be clealy measued will be difficult to impove. In second place, it is inevitable to apply methodologies which allow fo an appopiate systematic and consistent quantification of competitiveness implications associated with diffeent egulatoy options. In this pape, we povide an oveview of vaious definitions of the tem competitiveness. We then pesent seveal indicatos that can be used to quantify specific aspects of competitiveness. In ode to demonstate how such indicatos can be opeated within an economy-wide quantitative famewok, we pefom an illustative policy analysis on EU leadeship in climate policy (i.e. the EU is assumed to adopting sticte cabon emission egulation as compaed to othe egions): Selected indicatos of competitiveness ae implemented into the coe static vesion of the PCE geneal equilibium model which has been developed unde the auspices of the I.Q. Tools poject. t hand of this model famewok, we ae not only able to quantify the impacts of policy egulation on competitiveness indicatos such as Tems of Tade (ToT) o Revealed Compaative 1

2 dvantages (RC) but also fo impotant macoeconomic indicatos such as eal consumption, sectoal output etc. The emainde of this pape is stuctued as follows. Section 2 gives an oveview on the concept of competitiveness at the fms, secto, as well as county level; futhemoe commonly used indicatos at the espective levels ae pesented. Section 3 povides a moe detailed discussion of selected indicatos at the secto level which can be dectly implemented within the computable geneal equilibium appoach. Section 4 povides an illustative policy application on unilateal EU cabon emission estictions based on the PCE model. detailed algebaic desciption of the static coe model vesion is given in the appendix. 2 Notions of Competitiveness The concept of competitiveness oiginates fom the application to individual fms. Beginning in the sixties, many attempts wee made to define the concept on a highe aggegated level, i.e., fo sectos o even fo whole counties. t the fm level, thee is a elatively well established liteatue on indicatos fo competitiveness. s Matin (2004) puts it: t the fm, o mico-economic, level thee exists a easonably clea and staightfowad undestanding of the notion of competitiveness based on the capacity of fms to compete, to gow, and to be pofitable. t this level, competitiveness esides in the ability of fms to consistently and pofitably poduce poducts that meet the equements of an open maket in tems of pice, quality, etc. ny fm must meet these equements if it is to emain in business, and the moe competitive a fm elative to its ivals the geate will be its ability to gain maket shae. With espect to indicato systems fo measuing competitiveness one can geneally distinguish between ex-ante indicatos which ae input- o policy-based and ex-post indicatos which ae based on what is obseved on the maket. The latte ae also called output- o pefomance- based indicatos. t the fm level, examples fo policy-based indicatos include R&D expenditues, innovation potential, cost stuctue, o human capital stock. Fm chaacteistics like maket shae, pofitability o poductivity may seve as examples fo pefomance-based indicatos. Competitiveness at the sectoal level is an impotant policy issue since many counties featue a limited numbe of sectos which appea most elevant fo the economic pefomance. Fo example, the automobile industy is peceived as a key industy in seveal EU counties. s a consequence, the Euopean Competitiveness Repot has a sepaate chapte on the automobile industy. The eight edition of the Euopean Competitiveness Repot (EU 2004) also povides what could be intepeted as a definition of competitiveness fo the sectoal level: The analysis of competitiveness [ ] focuses on the ability to defend and/o to gain maket shaes in open, intenational makets by elying on pice and/o the quality of goods. This ability is affected by a wide ange of factos and conditions anging fom poduction costs to 2

3 technological and oganizational innovation, fom the egulatoy famewok to macoeconomic developments. Policy-based indicatos fo the competitiveness of a whole secto ae simila to the ones used at the fm level, such as R&D expenditues, innovation potential o investment flow (e.g. foeign dect investment). mong the pefomance-based indicatos next to pofitability and poductivity thee ae measues such as the Relative Wold Tade Shae (RW), Revealed Compaative dvantages (RC) o the Constant Maket Shaes (CM) measue. The two latte concepts ae also employed to assess competitiveness at the national level. Concepts of competitiveness at the national level ae vey contovesial. Kugman (2004) explains his vey citical view as follows: The idea that a county s economic fotunes ae lagely detemined by its success on wold makets is a hypothesis, not a necessay tuth, and as a pactical, empical matte, that hypothesis is flatly wong. In contay to such fundamental citicism, concepts of competitiveness at the national level ae widely used theeby incopoating vaious aspects of competitiveness at the levels below. Table 1 povides a selection of indicatos at the national level accoding to fou wide-spead classifications ( abilities ): (i) the ability to sell, (ii) the ability to ean, (iii) the ability to attact, and (iv) the ability to adjust. Obviously, it may be difficult to distinguish to which ability a cetain indicato belongs to. Fo some aeas, especially within the ability to adjust, it can be had to find meaningful indicatos at all. Table 1: List of competitiveness indicatos at the national level bility to sell bility to ean bility to attact bility to adjust Cuent account Tems of tade Real exchange ate Wold maket shae (CMS) Revealed compaative advantage (RC) Pe capita income [Technological competitiveness] (Labo-) poductivity [Human capital] Net foeign dect investment Copoate tax buden Level of wages [Infastuctue] [Labo maket egulation] [djustment to new supply / demand stuctue] [Flexibility of wages] [Flexibility of exchange ates] Unemployment ate N.B.: Enties in backets show aeas whee a numbe of indicatos can be defined but ae not futhe specified hee. s to numeical model-based analysis, the question which of the indicatos at the level of fms, sectos, o counties can be implemented depends on the specific modeling famewok. In the extension and application of ou standad multi-secto, multi-egion CGE famewok, we will compulsoily focus on indicatos fo sectoal competitiveness but also epot standad indicatos of competitiveness at the national level such as tems-of-tade o national income. 3

4 3 Selected Competitiveness Indicatos fo CGE nalysis We discuss thee ex-post output-based indicatos Relative Wod Tade Shae (RW), Revealed Compaative dvantage (RC) and Constant Maket Shae (CM) established in the boade liteatue on competitiveness that ae dectly amenable to CGEbased policy analysis. 3.1 Revealed Compaative dvantages (RC) RC is sometimes called the empical countepat of the theoetical concept of compaative advantages. In pactice, RC values ae based on tade data, elating expot with impot data. Following Balassa (1965), the RC index based on two dimensions (county, secto) is defined as: whee: RC ij = j X X ij ij / M ij / M j ij i:= j:= is the index fo egions, is the index fo sectos, X ij := denotes expots of secto j by egion i, and M ij := efes to the impots of secto j in egion i. Within the RC, the atio of expots by a specific secto ove its impots is elated to the atio of expots ove impots acoss all sectos of the egion. If the sectoal expot-impot atio is identical to the economy-wide atio, the RC value takes the neutal value of one. If the sectoal atio is lage than one, it is meant to eflect (ex-post) a cetain compaative advantage of this secto, which is expoting moe then othe sectos on aveage. Thee is a ange of slightly diffeent RC measues and nomalization appoaches (fo mapping the index to the ange between zeo and one). Fo ou illustative analysis pesented in section 4, we will stick to the simple definition given above. 3.2 Relative Wold Tade Shaes (RW) simila attempt to quantify secto-specific competitiveness is the one that uses elative wold tade shaes (RW). This index compaes the shae of a county s expots in a cetain secto with the shae of the county s oveall expots: RC ij = j X X ij ij / / X ij j i j X ij. 4

5 3.3 Constant Maket Shaes (CMS) The CMS method is also based on wold maket shaes. It compaes the actual development of expots against the development that would have been necessay to keep the wold expot shae constant. Typically, the development of expots is additively o multiplicatively decomposed into a gowth effect and a competitiveness effect. In the simplest additive (tautological) decomposition the CMS eads as: whee: ( x t 0 0 t 0 0 x ) = x + ( x x x ). t x := denotes expots of a county at time t, 0 x := indicates expots of a county in the base yea, j := is the secto index, k := is the county index, and := denotes the change (gowth ate) of wold expots between the base yea and time t. The fst tem x 0 t 0 0 is efeed to as gowth effect, while the second tem ( x x x ) can be viewed as the global competitiveness effect. If the competitiveness effect is zeo, then the change in expots of the county (secto) matches the change in the est of the wold which implies that the shae in wold expots emained constant. If the competitiveness effect is positive, then the wold maket shae has inceased as compaed to the efeence peiod. The CMS in the fom cited above is not capable to eflect any sectos specific contibutions to the changes. This can be ovecome by a moe sophisticated decomposition into fou pats: (i) a gowth effect, (ii) a sectoal effect, (iii) a egional effect, and (iv) a competitiveness effect. This can be fomalized as follows: t ( x x 0 ) = x t 0 x j ( j ) + x jk ( jk j ) + ( x x jk jk jk j j k If a county specializes in sectos with a high gowth potential then this indicato would show a high stuctual effect, while a specialization in expot egions with a high gowth potential would lead to a highe egional effect. In this famewok the competitiveness effect is meant to eflect the expot changes which ae not due to sectoal o egional changes. The decomposed CMS is widely used as an indicato fo competitiveness (see Tabold (1995) o Reichel (1999)). The OECD, fo example, uses a slightly extended five-step decomposition of the geneal CMS appoach (OECD (2001)). j k x 0 jk ). 5

6 4 Policy pplication: EU Leadeship in Climate Policy 4.1 Policy Backgound Intenational concen about climate change has led to the signatue of the Kyoto Potocol in 1997 aiming at emission tagets fo industialized counties to be achieved duing the commitment peiod Initially, the Potocol being in foce afte Russia s atification since ealy 2005 was celebated as a beakthough in intenational climate potection. Howeve, the U.S. withdawal fom the Potocol and full tadability of emission entitlements that the fome Easten Bloc has been conceded in excess of its anticipated futue business-as-usual emissions (so-called hot a) implies that the fst commitment peiod of the Kyoto Potocol is likely to accomplish vey little in tems of global emission eduction (see e.g. Böhinge (2002)). Moeove, it has not yet been negotiated which abatement tagets to what paties will apply afte the fst commitment peiod The appaent failue of the Kyoto Potocol with espect to envonmental effectiveness does not come much as a supise fom the pespective of standad economic theoy given the lack of a supanational authoity and the huge fee-iding incentives in global public good povision. The ationale behind fee-iding in climate policy is to save abatement costs while benefiting fom abatement effots of othe counties. lthough all counties could be bette off if they behaved in a coopeative way, each county has an incentive to take a fee-ide. This may lead to the well-known tagedy of the commons. Despite of this pisones' dilemma situation thee might be easons fo single counties to take a leading ole and act unilateally. Fo example, a county may decide to make shot-tem sacifices in the expectation of long un benefits fom an incease in the numbe of signatoy counties. nothe motivation which is especially elevant in the EU context could be the domestic political envonment whee votes demand concete envonmental action. s a matte of fact, the EU is viewing itself as the key pomote of climate potection activities the fm willingness to unilateal action. t the same time, EU policy makes fea negative impacts on intenational competitiveness of key enegy-intensive industies when adopting (much) sticte emission egulation as compaed to tading patnes. pat fom advese implications of unilateal emission egulation on EU industies, thee is a potentially impotant envonmental dimension to sub-global action egading climate change: Unilateal abatement may lead to an incease in emissions in non-abating egions, educing the global envonmental effectiveness. This phenomenon is efeed to as "leakage". Emission leakage in the case of EU unilateal cabon abatement can be measued as the incease in non-eu emissions elative to the eduction in EU Membe States. Thee ae thee basic channels though which cabon leakage can occu (Felde and Ruthefod, 1993). Fst, leakage can aise when in counties undetaking emission limitations enegy-intensive industies lose in competitiveness and the poduction of emission-intensive goods elocates aising emission levels in the non-paticipating egions (tade channel). Secondly, cut-backs of enegy demands in a lage egion due to emission constaints may depess the demand fo fossil fuels and thus induce a dop in wold enegy pices, which in tun could lead to an incease in the level of demand (and its composition) in othe egions (enegy channel). 6

7 Thdly, cabon leakage may be induced by changes in egional income (and thus enegy demand) due to tems of tade changes. Leakage ates eflect the impact of sub-global emission abatement stategies on compaative advantage. To educe leakage and impove cost-efficiency of unilateal action, exemptions o tax-beaks fo enegy- and expot-intensive industies ae a commonly adopted stategy. Howeve, an appopiate tax diffeentiation scheme would call fo a caeful accounting of embodied emissions in impots and expots. Othewise, the cost of meeting a specific eduction taget may inceases substantially because the maginal cost of emission eduction ae no longe equalized acoss sectos. t the pactical level, the isk of potentially costly tax beaks to enegy- and expot-intensive sectos is appaent as manages of these politically influential industies use the leakage agument to push fowad wide-anging exemptions. 4.2 Non-technical Summay of the CGE Famewok (PCE) To investigate the implications of EU leadeship in climate policy on sectoal competitiveness, goss economic welfae (abstacting fom benefits of changes in envonmental quality), and global cabon emissions we make use of the static multi-secto, multi-egion model PCE fo the wold economy. Figue 1 lays out the diagammatic stuctue of the coe model. Pimay factos of a egion include labo, capital, and esouces of fossil fuels ff (cude oil, coal, and gas). The specific esouce used in the poduction of cude oil, coal and gas esults in upwad sloping supply schedules. Poduction Y of commodity i in egion, othe than pimay fossil fuels, is captued by aggegate poduction functions which chaacteize technology though substitution possibilities between vaious inputs. Figue 1: Diagammatic oveview of the model stuctue M Othe Regions C Y Fossil fuel sectos, electicity, enegy-intensive sectos, and othe sectos R L K Q ff, Region 7

8 Nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions with seveal levels ae employed to specify the substitution possibilities in domestic poduction sectos between capital, labo, enegy, and non-enegy intemediate inputs. Final demand C of the epesentative agent R in each egion is given as a CES composite which combines consumption of an enegy aggegate with a non-enegy consumption bundle. The substitution pattens within the non-enegy consumption bundle as well as the enegy aggegate ae descibed by nested CES functions. CO 2 emissions ae associated with fossil fuel consumption in poduction, investment, and final demand. ll goods used on the domestic maket in intemediate and final demand coespond to a CES composite of the domestically poduced vaiety and a CES impot aggegate M of the same vaiety fom the othe egions, the so-called mington good. Domestic poduction eithe entes the fomation of the mington good o is expoted to satisfy the impot demand of othe egions. Endowments of pimay esouces ae fixed exogenously. In the coe simulations, we assume competitive facto and commodity makets such that pices adjust to clea these makets. Within ou static famewok, macoeconomic investment is fixed at the benchmak level (altenatively we might intoduce a maginal popensity to save o a model specification whee the maginal costs of investment equals the etun to investment given myopic expectations). The model is based on most ecent consistent accounts of poduction, consumption, bilateal tade and enegy flows fo 87 counties and 57 sectos povided by the GTP 6 data base fo the base yea 2001 (Dimaanan and McDougall (2006)). Table 4: Model dimensions Poduction sectos Enegy Coal Cude oil Natual gas Refined oil poducts (OIL) Electicity Non-Enegy Enegy-intensive sectos (EIS) Rest of industy and sevices (OTH) Savings good Regions and pimay factos Regions Euopean Union (EUR) Non-EU OECD (OEC) Rest of Wold (ROW) Pimay factos Labo Capital Fixed facto esouces fo coal, oil and gas Fo the sake of compactness, we have aggegated the GTP counties to 3 majo egions: Euopean Union (EUR), Non-EU OECD (OEC), and Rest of Wold (ROW). The sectoal aggegation in the model has been chosen to distinguish cabon-intensive sectos fom the est of the economy. It captues key dimensions in the analysis of geenhouse gas abatement, such 8

9 as diffeences in cabon intensities and the degee of substitutability acoss cabon-intensive goods. The pimay and seconday enegy goods identified in the model ae coal, natual gas, cude oil, efined oil poducts, and electicity. Impotant cabon-intensive and enegyintensive non-enegy industies that ae potentially most affected by cabon abatement policies ae aggegated within a composite enegy-intensive secto. The emaining manufactues and sevices ae aggegated to a composite industy that poduces a nonenegy-intensive maco good. The pimay factos in the model include labo, physical capital, and fossil-fuel esouces. Table 2 summaizes the egional, sectoal, and facto aggegation of the model. 4.3 Scenaios and Results In ode to illustate the consequences of the Euopean Union moving fowad in tems of global climate policy we assume unilateal emission abatement within the EU while tading patnes abstain fom any compaable cabon emission egulation. We diffeentiate the unilateal EU policy along two cental dimensions: Fstly, the degee of leadeship measued in tems of the unilateal eduction taget of EU emissions vis-à-vis the benchmak situation whee no effective emission abatement policy applies; the emission eduction taget is set subsequently at 5 %, 10 %, 15 %, 20 %, 25 %, and 30 % of the base yea emission level. Secondly, the level of tax diffeentiation between cabon-intensive (nonelectic) industies EIS and OIL and the est of the economy; the atio of implicit tax ates to achieve the exogenous EU emission eduction taget anges fom unity (i.e. unifom cabon taxes), via factos of 2, 5, 10, and 20 to full exemption of the cabon-intensive industies. Ratios highe than one indicate that taxes ae disciminated in favo of cabon-intensive industies fo example a atio of 20 implies that the cabon tax ate in the est of the economy is twenty times highe than fo cabon-intensive industies. We use contou plots ove the unilateal emission abatement taget and the tax atio to visualize ou esults. Note that in the gaphs we efe to the case of full tax exemptions of cabon intensive industies with a label inf fo the associated infinite tax atio. Figues 2a.- d. epot the implications of unilateal EU cabon policies fo economic welfae, implied cabon taxes, tems of tade, and cabon leakage. Neglecting envonmental benefits fom cabon abatement, unilateal emission constaints impose non-negligible welfae losses fo the EU economy which incease towads highe eduction tagets and moe ponounced tax diffeentiation in favo of cabon-intensive industies. In ou coe simulations, welfae losses measued as eduction in eal consumption (hee:. Hicksian equivalent vaiation) may amount to as much as 2.5 % fo the case of fully exempting cabon-intensive industies and emission tagets of 30 %. The associated cabon values fo the est of the economy ae displayed in Figue 2b which also yields by means of the tax atio the lowe cabon value fo cabon-intensive industies. In the case of full tax exemptions to cabon-intensive industies, the cabon value imposed on the est of the economy anges up to seveal hundeds of $US pe ton of cabon which explains the excess cost of disciminating policy egulations due to foegone cheap abatement options in the cabon-intensive segments of the economy. 9

10 Figue 2: Economic and envonmental implications of EU cabon emission constaints a. Welfae (% HEV fom BaU) b. Cabon tax fo est of economy ($/t of C) c. Tems of tade (in %) d. Leakage (in %) Figue 2c. epots the changes in the tems of tade, i.e. the index of the pice of EU s expots in tems of its impots. The tems of tade deteioate as that index falls. Refeing to the cental theme of ou analysis both indicatos, i.e. changes in eal consumption (income) as well as changes in the tems of tade, signal a loss in EU competitiveness at the national level due to unilateal policy action. Fo both indicatos, the implications of moe stingent unilateal emission eduction tagets fo competitiveness ae unambiguously negative. Howeve, thee is a qualitative diffeence between the two indicatos egading the implications of tax diffeentiation. While moe ponounced tax diffeentiation in favo of cabon-intensive industies clealy induces additional consumption losses, the tems of tade may impove due to the possibility of tax buden shifting via highe expot pices of cabonintensive poducts. Figue 2d. illustates the poblems of unilateal action in climate policy egading global envonmental effectiveness. Fo ou model paameteization, a substantial pat of EU abatement aound 30 % is offset though inceased emissions of non-egulating 10

11 tading patnes. Leakage ates ae elatively obust with espect to the level of the emission eduction taget. s expected, leakage ates decline with tax discimination of cabon- and expot-intensive industies howeve, the magnitude of leakage eduction tuns out to be athe small Figues 3a.-c. summaize the impacts of unilateal EU cabon policies on sectoal poduction of diffeent industies. Imposition of cabon constaints induces stuctual change which inevitably goes at the expense of cabon-intensive industies. Towads highe emission eduction tagets, the output losses fo these industies may become dastic in paticula fo the mineal oil industy. In tun, tax cuts may offset the advese output effects fo cabonintensive industies to a lage extent. While tax beaks ae clealy beneficial fo cabonintensive industies, they go at the expense of the emaining industies (OTH) which ae subject to elatively highe cabon tax ates to meet the exogenous oveall emission eduction taget. Output losses fo these industies may substantially incease towads stong pefeential tax teatment of cabon-intensive industies. The competitiveness effects at the sectoal level ae epoted in Figues 4a.-c. in tems of changes of RC. The changes of RC eflect changes in compaative advantage acoss sectos due to policy intefeence. With unifom (tax) teatment, sectos which ae elatively cabon-intensive lose competitiveness wheeas elatively cabon-extensive sectos gain in competitiveness. Losses and gains ae einfoced with the magnitude of unilateal emission eduction tagets. Howeve, tax diffeentiation in favo of cabon-intensive industies can lagely neutalize the implications of emission constaints on sectoal competitiveness. Ou esults highlight the citical significance of competitiveness indicatos at the sectoal level. Fo a balanced view, it is impotant to account fo changes acoss the vaious sectos of the domestic economy athe than focusing on a vey naow segment of the economy which might be most affected by policy-induced stuctual change. In addition, sectoal implications must be taded off with economy-wide impacts. Obviously, impovements in competitiveness fo some industies may not only wok at the expense of competitiveness of othe industies but induce an oveall loss in national competitiveness measued in tems of eal income. Figues 5a.-c. povide futhe insights into the economy-wide cost implications of unilateal abatement policies. Figue 5a. indicates the additional costs the EU would have to undego in ode to compensate fo cabon leakage. The cost incease amounts to oughly 50 % to 100 % of a stategy without leakage compensation depending on the level of the unilateal emission taget and the chosen tax diffeentiation. Figues 5b. and 5c. illustate the cost implications of tax diffeentiation (i) fo the ealistic case when leakage is not compensated and (ii) fo the athe unealistic case of leakage compensation. If we do not account fo leakage, lage tax diffeentiation may be costly in paticula fo highe unilateal eduction tagets (although at lowe eduction tagets thee might be some limited scope fo exploiting tems of tade effects though tax discimination vis-à-vis unifom taxation). If leakage must be compensated fo, some degee of tax discimination in favo of cabon-intensive industies may in fact be beneficial as compaed to unifom taxation. 11

12 Figue 3: Changes in sectoal poduction of EU industies a. Enegy-intensive industies (EIS) b. Mineal oil industies (OIL) c. Othe industies and sevices (OTH) 12

13 Figue 4: Changes in sectoal competitiveness of EU industies RC (in % fom BaU) a. Enegy-intensive industies (EIS) b. Mineal oil industies (EIS) c. Othe industies and sevices (OTH) 13

14 Figue 5: Cost implications of unilateal cabon estictions fo the EU a. dditional cost of leakage compensation (in % of cost without leakage compensation) b. Cost of tax diffeentiation without leakage compensation (base: unifom taxation) c. Cost of tax diffeentiation with leakage compensation (base: unifom taxation) 14

15 5 Conclusions Since the Euopean Council stated the Lisbon pocess in 2000, the issue of competitiveness is an aea of high and ising pioity within EU policy. Howeve, the notion of competitiveness often emains athe vague and theefoe is difficult to addess though igoous economic analysis. In this pape, we have discussed altenative definitions of the tem competitiveness complemented by indicatos that can be used to quantify specific aspects of competitiveness at the level of fms, sectos, o counties. We have then illustated how indicatos of sectoand county-specific competitiveness can be opeated in a conventional CGE famewok along the example of EU leadeship in climate policy. Ou analysis waants the caeful and complementay use of altenative competitiveness indicatos. When assessing competitiveness impacts of policy egulation at the sectoal level, it is impotant to tade off changes acoss all the sectos of the domestic economy athe than focusing on only a few banches which might be most exposed at fst glance to policy measues. In addition, sectoal implications must be weighted against economy-wide impacts. s a matte of fact, impovements in competitiveness fo some industies may not only wok at the expense of competitiveness of othe industies but induce an oveall loss in national competitiveness. Refeences Balassa, B. (1965): Tade libealization and evealed compaative advantage, The Mancheste School of Economic and Social Studies 33, Böhinge, C. (2002): Climate Politics Fom Kyoto to Bonn: Fom Little to Nothing?, The Enegy Jounal 23 (2), Dimaanan, B.V. and R.. McDougall (2006): Global Tade, ssistance, and Poduction: The GTP 6 Data Base, Cente fo Global Tade nalysis, Pudue Univesity. Felde, S. and T.F. Ruthefod (1993): Unilateal ction and Cabon Leakage: The Consequences of Intenational Tade in Oil and Basic Mateials, Jounal of Envonmental Economics and Management, 25, 1993, EU (2003): Seventh edition of the Commission s Repot on Euopean competitiveness, Euopean Commission, Bussels, download at: EU (2004): Eight edition of the Commission s Repot on Euopean competitiveness, Euopean Commission, Bussels, download at: n.pdf 15

16 Kugman, P. R. (1994): Competitiveness: Dangeous Obsession, in: Foeign ffas, Council on Foeign Relations, NY, Matin, R. L. (2004): Study on the Factos of Regional Competitiveness - daft final epot fo The Euopean Commission Dectoate-Geneal Regional Policy, Cambidge Econometics. OECD (2001): Measuing Poductivity OECD Manual, Pais. Reichel, R. (1999): Ökonomische Theoie de intenationalen Wettbewebsfähigkeit von Volkswtschaften, Deutsche Univeistätsvelag, Wiesbaden. Tabold, H. (1995): Die intenationale Wettbewebsfähigkeit eine Volkswtschaft, in: DIW (1995): Vieteljaheshefte zu Wtschaftsfoschung, Duncke&Humblot, Belin,

17 ppendix: lgebaic Model Summay Two classes of conditions chaacteize the competitive equilibium fo ou model: zeo pofit conditions and maket cleaance conditions. The fome class detemines activity levels and the latte detemines pice levels. In ou algebaic exposition, the notation Π is used to denote the pofit function of secto j in egion whee z is the name assigned to the associated poduction activity. Diffeentiating the pofit function with espect to input and output pices povides compensated demand and supply coefficients (Hotelling s lemma), which appea subsequently in the maket cleaance conditions. We use i (aliased with j) as an index fo commodities (sectos) and (aliased with s) as an index fo egions. The label EG epesents the set of enegy goods and the label FF denotes the subset of fossil fuels. Tables.1.6 explain the notations fo vaiables and paametes employed within ou algebaic exposition. Figues.1.4 povide a gaphical exposition of the poduction and final consumption stuctue. Numeically, the model is fomulated as a mixed complementaity poblem (MCP) in GMS. z Zeo Pofit Conditions 1. Poduction of goods except fossil fuels: Π Y = ( ) [ ( ) ] η 1 η KLE X X X + ( 1 ) 1 KLE 1- KLE E E 1 - σ σ E σ L K KLE θ p θ p η θ p p +( 1- ) α w j α v j = 0 i FF j j θ θ θ 2. Poduction of fossil fuels: Π Y = j EG ( ) 1 1 σ Q, i 1 σ Q, i 1 η 1 η 1 X X X, + ( 1 ) 1 Q σ Q i Q FF FF FF θ - + (1 ) + + p θ p η θ q θ θ L w θ K v θ p j = 0 i FF 3. Secto-specific enegy aggegate: E E 1 σ ELE ELE Π = p - θ p { ELE, } + (1 θ 4. mington aggegate: Π = p - ELE ) θ CO p 1 σ CO { CO, } 17 + (1 θ CO ) 1 1 σ 1-σ 1-σ M CO2 CO2 ( θ p + (1 ) p ) + t a i = 0 θ 5. ggegate impots acoss impot egions: 1 1-σ M M M M X 1-σ M Π = p - is p is θ s 6. Household consumption demand: Π C = p C E - θ C p E 1-σ C EC E +(1-θ C = 0 ) i FF p γ ) 1-σ EC 1 1-σ EC Π j LQ = 0 p β j j j j 1 σ CO 1 σ 1 σ ELE CO 1 1 σ ELE 1 =0

18 7. Household enegy demand: Π E C = p E C E - θ i FF ic p 1-σ FF, C 1 1-σ FF, C = 0 Maket Cleaance Conditions 8. Labo: Y L = Π Y i w 9. Capital: = Π K Y i v 10. Natual esouces: Y Q = Π Y q Y i FF 11. Output fo domestic makets: Y Π Π Y = j j p p 12. Output fo expot makets: Y Π Y = Π X M is p p j s M is X 13. Secto specific enegy aggegate: E = Y Π p Y E 14. Impot aggegate: = Π M M p 15. mington aggegate: Y Π = j Y j +C p j 16. Household consumption: C C p = w L + v K + Π p j FF 17. ggegate household enegy consumption: C Π EC = C E p C 18. Cabon emissions: CO2 = ai i CO2 C q j Q CO2 j + t CO2 + pcgd, Y CGD, + B 18

19 Table.1: Sets I J R S EG FF LQ Sectos and goods liased with i Regions liased with ll enegy goods: Coal, cude oil, efined oil, gas and electicity Pimay fossil fuels: Coal, cude oil and gas Liquid fuels: Cude oil and gas Table.2: ctivity vaiables Poduction in secto i and egion Y E ggegate enegy input in secto i and egion M ggegate impots of good i and egion mington aggegate fo demand categoy d of good i in egion d C ggegate household consumption in egion E ggegate household enegy consumption in egion C Table.3: Pice vaiables Output pice of good i poduced in egion fo domestic maket p X p Output pice of good i poduced in egion fo expot maket p E p M p p C p E C w v q Pice of aggegate enegy in secto i and egion Impot pice aggegate fo good i impoted to egion Pice of mington good i in egion Pice of aggegate household consumption in egion Pice of aggegate household enegy consumption in egion Wage ate in egion Pice of capital sevices in egion Rent to natual esouces in egion (i FF) CO2 t CO 2 tax in egion 19

20 Table.4: Endowments and emissions coefficients ggegate labo endowment fo egion L K Q ggegate capital endowment fo egion Endowment of natual esouce i fo egion (i FF) B Balance of payment deficit o suplus in egion (note: B = 0 ) CO2 Endowment of cabon emission ights in egion CO a 2 Cabon emissions coefficient fo fossil fuel i (i FF) i Table.5: Cost shaes X θ Shae of expots in secto i and egion θ j Shae of intemediate good j in secto i and egion (i FF) KLE θ Shae of KLE aggegate in secto i and egion (i FF) E θ Shae of enegy in the KLE aggegate of secto i and egion (i FF) T α Shae of labo (T=L) o capital (T=K) in secto i and egion (i FF) Q θ Shae of natual esouces in secto i of egion (i FF) FF θ Shae of good i (T=i) o labo (T=L) o capital (T=K) in secto i and egion (i FF) T θ CO Shae of coal in fossil fuel demand by secto i in egion (i FF) θ ELE Shae of electicity in enegy demand by secto i in egion β j Shae of liquid fossil fuel j in enegy demand by secto i in egion (i FF, j LQ) θ M is θ θ E C γ θ E ic Shae of impots of good i fom egion s to egion Shae of domestic vaiety in mington good i of egion Shae of fossil fuel composite in aggegate household consumption in egion Shae of non-enegy good i in non-enegy household consumption demand in egion Shae of fossil fuel i in household enegy consumption in egion 20

21 Table.6: Elasticities η σ KLE Tansfomation between poduction fo the domestic maket and poduction fo the expot Substitution between enegy and value-added in poduction (except fossil fuels) σ Substitution between natual esouces and othe inputs in fossil fuel Q,i poduction calibated consistently to exogenous supply elasticities μ σ ELE σ CO Substitution between electicity and the fossil fuel aggegate in poduction Substitution between coal and the liquid fossil fuel composite in poduction σ Substitution between the impot aggegate and the domestic input 4 σ Substitution between impots fom diffeent egions 8 M σ Substitution between the fossil fuel composite and the non-fossil fuel EC consumption aggegate in household consumption σ Substitution between fossil fuels in household fossil enegy FF,C consumption FF μ CO =0.5 μ CRU =1.0 μ GS = Figue.1: Nesting in non-fossil fuel poduction Domestic maket vaiety CET Expot maket vaiety CES Non-enegy intemediates (M) Leontief Capital-Labo-Enegy (KLE) Capital-Labo (KL) CES Capital (K) Labo (L) CES Enegy (E) CES Oil-Gas-Coal Electicity CES Oil-Gas Coal Oil Gas CES 21

22 Figue.2: Nesting in fossil fuel poduction Domestic maket vaiety CET Expot maket vaiety Fuel specific esouce CES Non-fuel specific esouce inputs Leontief Intemediate inputs Labo Capital Figue.3: Nesting in household consumption Non enegy goods & Electicity (Cobb-Douglas composite) Consumption CES Fossil fuel composite Oil Gas Coal CES Figue.4: Nesting in mington poduction mington good CES Domestic maket vaiety Expots fom othe egions (CES aggegate) 22

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