Silveira, Energy and Climate Studies, KTH 1. Sustainable Development Vision or Fiction? Sustainable Development Vision or Fiction?

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1 Sustainable Development Vision or Fiction? Semida Silveira Visiting Professor, PhD Energy and Climate Studies KTH Industrial Engineering and Management September 08, Sustainable Development Vision or Fiction? From development to sustainable development the history of the sustainable development agenda Sustainable energy systems what is needed? 2 What is development? "a process which makes people better off by increasing their command over goods and services and by increasing the choices open to them" (Elkan, 1976) 3 1

2 Development successes increase in welfare technological development more and better goods at low prices more and better services 4 How to measure welfare? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP per capita (purchasing power) Distribution of income (gini coefficient) Energy consumption Employment rate Infant mortality Life expectancy Literacy 5 Literacy rates 6 2

3 Development failures bad distribution of welfare bad management of resources market imbalances pollution 7 Environmental degradation physical manifestations reduction of quantity reduction of quality reduction of diversity 8 What is development? What has been happening to poverty? What has been happening to unemployment? What has been happening to inequality? If all of these have declined, then there has been development." (Seers, 1977) 9 3

4 The gap 30% of world s population is poor 1/3 of pop in developing countries has less than US$ 1 / day 20% of poorest control 1.1% of global income 20% of richest control 86% wealth disparities are growing between urban and rural areas 2/3 of commercial energy is used in developed world 10 The gap 11 The gap 12 4

5 Development successes and failures increase in welfare (food, goods, services) Market failures allocation failures bad distribution bad management of the environment 13 What is development? intensive concentration of activities requiring a high degree of synchronization and sequential ordering over a short period of time during which the whole social fabric of a country is transformed and its spatial structure reorganized" (Mabogunje, 1989) 14 Temporal aspects of development and growth Levels of societal change growth development Time 15 5

6 What is development? evolutionary process dynamic unfolding of multiple relationships evolution of new structures social, economic, spatial and environmental transformations 16 Limitations of growth theories strong focus on modernization overemphasis on economic forces underestimation of social counter forces ignorance of dependency factors hierarchical approach to spatial relationships ignorance of environmental constraints 17 Questioning development definitions economic development is an evolutionary process which uses the resource endowment of the planet to meet the needs and aspirations of its human population individually and collectively" 18 6

7 However, the most fundamental law governing our planet s finite resources states that matter can neither be created nor destroyed; it can, however, be reshaped or transformed. Energy is needed to convert matter from one form to another" 19 Questioning development definitions An essential feature of development is the progress from the direct use of goods in nature to the processing of such goods and the adding of value to them. This results in the continuous transformation of natural capital to human-made capital." 20 However, Some forms of matter found in nature have as much utility to human society without change as others provide only after conversion" 21 7

8 Questioning development definitions Modernization is one necessary requirement for a country to attain development" 22 However, There is no one path to modernization. Environmental considerations can play a major part in the choice of a technological option. " 23 What is sustainable development? a development strategy that manages all assets, natural resources, and human resources, as well as financial and physical assets, for increasing long-term wealth and well-being" (Repetto, 1986) 24 8

9 Socio-spatial-productive interaction spatial configuration environment social framework productive structure (Silveira, 1993) 25 From duality to a multi-directional concept Sustainable development = maximizing economic growth sustainability development sustainability development Increase in quality of life and social equity Long-term survival of systems that provide foundations for development (Gudmundssson and Höjer, 1996) 26 International process to deal with the shortcomings of development 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment 1983 World Commission on Environment and Development 1987 Brundtland Report - Our Common Future 1987 Montreal Protocol 1992 UNCED Rio 1993 World Conference on Human Rights 2000 MDGs (UN Millennium Development Goals) 2002 WSSD Johannesburg 27 9

10 What is sustainable development? development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (Brundtland Report, 1987) 28 What is sustainable development? process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are all in harmony and enhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations" (Brundtland Report, 1987) 29 Brundtland Report policy focus population and human resources food security species and ecosystems energy industry urban challenge 30 10

11 What is sustainable development? must be considered as an experiment with incremental advances, midcourse corrections, and constant feedback of measurements about the environment" (Richard A. Carpenter, 1990) 31 UNCED Earth Summit, Rio 1992 Agenda 21 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development Climate Convention Convention on Biological Diversity Statement of Principles of Forests 32 The Agenda 21 addresses social inequality environmental degradation changes in patterns of production and consumption mechanisms to implement a new development path the roles of various actors 33 11

12 Milennium Development Goals (MDGs) eradicate extreme poverty and hunger achieve universal primary education promote gender equality and empower women reduce child mortality improve maternal health combat HIV / AIDS, malaria and other diseases ensure environmental sustainability develop a global partnership for development 34 WSSD (2002) main targets halve proportion of people without drinking water and sanitation 2015 reverse natural resource degradation reduce biodiversity loss significantly (2010) minimize harmful effects of chemicals 10-year framework program for sustainable production and consumption implement sustainable development strategies 35 Measures of sustainable development ISEW - Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare MIPS - Material Intensity Per Unit of Service Delivered Ecological footprint SDR - Sustainable Development Records HDI Human Development Index 36 12

13 Sustainable Development Vision or Fiction? From development to sustainable development the history of the sustainable development agenda Sustainable energy systems what is needed? 37 Strategic issues influencing the global energy agenda security of energy supply environmental threat caused by energy deployment and use accessibility of modern energy in developing countries investment needs in energy-supply infrastructure market competition 38 HDI vis a vis per capita energy consumption

14 Relation of life expectancy and energy consumption per capita 40 Relation of infant mortality and energy consumption per capita 41 energy use per capita by regions,

15 Electricity deprivation 43 Critical role of energy in WEHAB priority areas 44 The global energy supply gas 18.8% hydro 2.1% other 0% biomass 10% nuclear 7% other 3% oil 34% renew. & waste 2% oil 53.2% coal 22.3% nuclear 1.3% 6,036 Mtoe 66% increase gas 22% 10,038 Mtoe coal 24% 45 15

16 example of the energy chain from extraction to services coal 46 impacts of out energy systems Insult Lead emissions Oil added to oceans Methane flow to atmosphere Sulphur emissions Mercury emissions Nitrous oxide Particulate emissions Carbon dioxide emissions Share caused by commercial energy supply, mid-1990s 41% fossil fuel burning incl. additives 44% harvesting, processing and transport 18% fossil fuel harvesting and processing 85% fossil fuel burning 20% fossil fuel burning 12% fossil fuel burning 35% fossil fuel burning 75% fossil fuel burning 47 The Climate Convention ultimate objective Achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system 48 16

17 The climate system 49 CO 2 concentrations over the past 1000 years 50 Greenhouse gas concentrations

18 Variations on Earth s surface temperature Northern Hemisphere, past 1000 years 52 Variations on Earth s surface temperature Global decarbonization of energy Source: IPCC report on emissions scenarios

19 Global CO 2 emissions in reference and alternative scenarios Source: IEA 55 IEA alternative policy scenario with key policies for CO 2 reduction OECD/IEA Silveira, 2007 ECS, KTH 56 Change in CO 2 emissions in OECD countries

20 Fuel shares of world primary energy supply 2003 Source: IEA energy statistics 10,579 Mtoe 58 Challenges in renewable energy markets No obvious energy technology path Integration of new technologies into the existing infrastructure (i.e. the grid) Development of off-grid solutions Integration of energy with other sectors Cost-effectiveness of renewable options Competition from oil and gas industry Transaction costs (logistics, land use, stakeholders) Regulatory approvals Credit renewable energy systems for other benefits 59 Challenges to investors in the energy sector Deal with short-term policy frameworks Fiscal issues / incentives / market mechanisms Multiple objectives of energy policies Public-private partnerships Environmental regulations Protectionism Understand heterogeneous markets Make money with corporate social responsibility 60 20

21 IIASA-WEC energy scenarios C1 and C2 Source: Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives, IIASA-WEC energy scenarios A1 and A3 Source: Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives, The global energy supply

22 The global energy sector future potential Next 20 years no natural resource limits increase in energy consumption no radical change in the energy mix/ increase of energy market integration Next 50 years no natural resource limits stabilization of energy consumption structural changes and better use of local resources are possible 64 The global energy sector future potential Next 20 years more secondary energy, increase in trade and flexibility increase in the use of all fossil fuels limit share of energy supply from renewables Next 50 years non-oecd are larger energy producers and users than OECD importance of oil and gas decreases, nonconventional fossil sources come into use Biomass, solar and wind become important, other res may will also increase 65 The global energy sector future potential Next 20 years low turn over of energy production capital increase in CO 2 emissions 20-30% increase in efficiency changes in lifestyles and production patterns - marginal effect on energy demand Next 50 years all installed capacity renewed at least once stabilization of emissions and gradual decrease thereafter efficiency increases of 60% or more significant changes in lifestyles and production cycles important for energy use patterns 66 22

23 Dealing with energy and climate challenges less fossil more renewables efficient energy supply and use technological challenge sustainable development restructuring of markets ecologically, socially and economically robust systems; increased energy service access; climate change mitigation competitive markets new systems new investment patterns 67 A sustainable energy path implies wider access of modern energy convergence of energy use per capita less fossil fuels / more renewables reduction of greenhouse gas emissions improvement of markets for renewables security of energy supply 68 Building a sustainable energy path is possible but we need to keep reviewing the development paradigm! 69 23

24 Thank You for your attention! Energy and Climate Studies KTH Industrial Engineering and Management 70 24