A Brief Introduction to the Economics of Climate Change

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1 A Brief Introduction to the Economics of Climate Change Why Economics? Economics is not simply the study of money or finance! Terry Iverson Department of Economics Colorado State University April 2015 Why Economics? Does it make economic sense for the world to tackle climate change? Economics is not simply the study of money and finance! It is a social science that seeks to understand how the allocation of scarce resources gets determined in society (including the allocation of scarce environmental resources) Emphasis on incentives Realistic assumptions about human behavior Practical insights for public policy Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 1

2 Does it make economic sense for the world to tackle climate change? Does it make economic sense for the world to tackle climate change? Does it make economic sense for the world to tackle climate change? DICE 2013: Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy Base Optimal tax Limit t = 2 Emissions 2,010 2,020 2,030 2,040 2,050 2,060 2,070 2,080 2,090 2,100 Yale Economist William Nordhaus CO2 concentrations Base Optimal Limit 2 degc ,010 2,020 2,030 2,040 2,050 2,060 2,070 2,080 2,090 2,100 2,110 Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 2

3 Whatever the objective, the world has a long ways to go! Whatever the objective, the world has a long ways to go! To stabilize atmospheric CO2, emissions must eventually decline toward zero But since the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 1999, global carbon dioxide emissions have grown at an unprecedented 2.7 percent per year; on track to double from current level in 26 years 1. It is the greatest market failure of all time (Nicholas Stern) KEY OBSTACLES Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 3

4 2. Correction requires government, but no global authority with power The prisoner s dilemma of global climate policy Incentives in a multilateral environmental agreement 3. Current renewables not enough All countries face an incentive to free ride coast on the benefits of other nations actions while trying to avoid costs on self Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 4

5 Estimated generation costs for 2019 installation, US ($/MWh) Levelized cost of electricity by region Production costs Levelized Costs Intermittency Costs Levelized cost+ Intermittency Coal: ~ Natural Gas: ~ Wind: ~0 80* Solar: ~0 130* * Assumed capacity factor at high end of plausible range. Source: Energy Information Agency (2015) Source: International Energy Agency (2010) 1. Innovation responds to incentives KEY INSIGHTS Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 5

6 Example: Newell et al., 1999, Quarterly Journal of Economics Example: Newell et al., 1999, Quarterly Journal of Economics Prior to 1973, most innovations in air conditioning technology led to cheaper units, but not to more energy efficient units In contrast, with higher energy prices after 1973, most innovations favored more energy efficient units 2. There is a (second) market failure for green energy innovation 2. There is a (second) market failure for green energy innovation Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 6

7 3. Carbon tax (or cap & trade) is overwhelmingly the best option 3. Carbon tax (or cap & trade) is overwhelmingly the best option 1. Minimizes costs by ensuring that abatement occurs wherever it is cheapest 2. Achieves strongest incentives for innovation of any single policy option (though R&D subsidies also necessary) 4. The source of emissions is moving 5. Unilateral policy has problems CO2 emissions, 2010 Cumulative CO2 emissions, Developed Developing Projected emissions, 2040 Source: Energy Information Agency (2012) Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 7

8 5. Unilateral policy has problems 6. There are options to reduce leakage Prof Terry Iverson, CSU Department of Economics 8

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