Natural Gas Market Update
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1 Natural Gas Market Update John Jicha - MGE Director - Energy Supply and Trading Madison Gas and Electric Company
2 Agenda What a difference ten years can make Low prices Fundamental factors impacting the energy markets Where do we go from here? 1
3 Hurricane Katrina 2
4 New Orleans 3
5 NYMEX Natural Gas Futures $/Dth $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Gas-Fired Generation Declining Production Hurricanes Katrina and Rita $0 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Source: NYMEX 4
6 Fundamentals of 2005 Supply Demand LNG Imports, 3% Shale, 5% Pipeline Imports, 14% Offshore, 15% Associated, 4% Commercial, 14% Other, 8% Industrial, 30% Residential, 22% Onshore, 59% Electric Power, 27% Source: EIA 5
7 NYMEX Natural Gas Futures $16 $/Dth $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $ Peak LNG Imports Shale Revolution Winter warmest in 65 years $0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: NYMEX 6
8 NYMEX Natural Gas Futures $/Dth $3.30 $3.20 $3.10 $3.00 $2.90 $2.80 $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 1/2/2015 2/2/2015 3/2/2015 4/2/2015 5/2/2015 6/2/2015 7/2/2015 8/2/2015 9/2/2015 Source: NYMEX 7
9 Supply Fundamentals 8
10 Production and Imports U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) annual change (Bcf/d) Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. non-gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. net imports (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis) Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September Marketed production forecast (left axis) 9
11 Rig Count # of Rigs 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 $/Dth Natural Gas Rig Count Natural Gas Futures Price Source: NYMEX and BakerHughes 10
12 Production by Type Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) Alaska Coalbed methane Tight gas Lower 48 Offshore Other Onshore Shale gas Source: EIA 11
13 Map of Shale Basins 12
14 Shale Production by Basin Bcf/d Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Rest of US 'shale' Source: EIA 13
15 Shale Production Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) Source: EIA 14
16 EIA Storage Inventory 20
17 Demand Fundamentals 21
18 Consumption 22
19 Consumption Growth 30 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) Residential Commercial Transportation Electric power Industrial 9.38 Source: EIA 23
20 Changes in Power Generation 6 Trillion kilowatt hours % 28% 31% Petroleum & Other/Other Nuclear Coal Renewable Natural Gas Source: EIA 24
21 Net Pipeline Imports (Exports) Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) Outlook 2005 Outlook Source: EIA 26
22 LNG Net Imports (Exports) Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) Outlook 2005 Outlook Source: EIA 27
23 World LNG Prices Source: FERC 28
24 LNG Export Terminals Approved Under Construction Current Exports Sabine Pass LNG 2.76 Bcf/d ConocoPhillips, Kenai, AK Cameron LNG 1.7 Bcf/d Freeport LNG 1.8 Bcf/d Cove Point LNG 0.82 Bcf/d Corpus Christi LNG 2.14 Bcf/d Re-exports 13.3 Bcf per year or about Bcf/d to Japan Freeport LNG, Freeport, TX Exports 2.66 Bcf per year or about Bcf/d to Brazil Approved Not Under Construction Sabine Pass LNG 1.40 Bcf/d 30
25 Outlook 31
26 Heating Degree Days 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Normal November December January February March 32
27 El Niño Could be among the top four strongest on record Last strong El Niño occurred in Weather Impacts Warmer than normal Drier than normal Limits the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones 33
28 El Niño 34
29 Winter Forecast NOAA (January-March) Farmer s Almanac (January-March) 35
30 Future Prices $4.75 $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20 Oct-20 Mar-21 Aug-21 Jan-22 Jun-22 Nov-22 Apr-23 Sep-23 Feb-24 Jul-24 Dec-24 May-25 Oct-25 Mar-26 Aug-26 Jan-27 Jun-27 Nov-27 $/Dth 36
31 Key Takeaways Demand growth expected to be 15+ Bcf/d Mid-continent 5-year gas demand growth driven by increases in natural gas-fired power generation capacity At current prices, supply will be flat to small growth year to year Changes in gas flows into the Midwest Prices will be relatively stable in the short-term Prices in the long-term may increase as increased demand potentially outpaces supply 37
32 On Demand Savings Program Matthew Matenaer P.E. - Senior Program Manager Focus on Energy
33 FOCUS ON ENERGY ON DEMAND SAVINGS PROGRAM MADISON GAS AND ELECTRIC MAJOR CUSTOMER COUNCIL MEETING Matthew Matenaer Program Manager October 6, 2015
34 BACKGROUND National Governors Association Award Intent of the ODS Program Short-term Long-term Program Timeline June 2015 to December 2016 Active Summertime Periods: June September On-Peak Periods: 10 a.m. 9 p.m., Monday-Friday excluding holidays 42
35 CUSTOMER ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA MGE Demand customer of 20 kw+ (on-peak) CG-2, CG-4, CG-6 Target customers: 150 kw + Existing EMS Ability to cycle equipment or stagger start-up times 43
36 TARGETED CUSTOMER TYPES Healthcare Cold Storage Local Government Retail Commercial Office Lodging Industrial 44
37 ON-PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS METHODOLOGY 45
38 ON-PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS METHODOLOGY 46
39 ON-PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS METHODOLOGY 47
40 COMMON DEMAND LIMITING STRATEGIES HVAC pre-cooling and control sequencing Float temperature set points Set kw thresholds in EMS Set lighting schedules based on space occupancy Staggering equipment run times Delay battery recharging Compressor cycling 48
41 ELIGIBLE CUSTOMER INCENTIVES $10/on-peak kw shed per month Example: 55 kw (June) x $ kw (July) x $ kw (August) x $ kw (September) x $10 = $2,350 $500 fee reimbursement for installation of pulse output signal provided by MGE $1500 co-pay for EMS pulse output signal connection 10% efficiency bonus for capital projects that qualify for Focus on Energy on-peak kw savings Example: Capital project for LED stairwell lighting eligible for $1500 incentive; when approved, $150 bonus added for enrollment in ODS 49
42 PARTICIPANT COST-REDUCTION IMPACT Scenario: CG-2 customer ( kw) saves 55, 50, 60, 70 kw for the months of June-Sept. Total economic benefit to ODS participant for 4-month participation period: Utility/Program Cost-Savings Category Cost Savings ODS Incentives ($10/kW/month) $2,350 On-peak Demand Savings (~$0.45/kW/day) $3,230 Customer Max Demand Savings* (~$0.10/kW/day) $1,930 Electricity Consumption Savings (base + peak ~$0.10/kWh) $930 Total Savings: $8,440 *Assuming max demand is set in summer, 12 months worth of savings 50
43 ADDITIONAL BENEFITS OF PARTICIPATION FREE value add to participants Tracks demand savings and consumption savings over time compared to the customized baseline Capable of push messaging to facilities staff Tracks energy efficiency upgrade performance through energy markers Installation requirements: LAN Ethernet connection, power source near meter 51
44 ROLE OF TRADE ALLIES Leverage existing customer relationships with Trade Allies that perform ongoing maintenance of existing EMS Trade Ally responsible for identification and implementation of demand limiting strategies into customer EMS Trade Ally incentives: $100/kW (average annual) Must be registered Trade Ally with Focus on Energy 52
45 CUSTOMER RECRUITMENT STRATEGY Recruitment Period October May 2016 Ongoing collaboration with existing Focus on Energy non-residential program staff and MGE customer account representatives to identify ideal candidates 53
46 CONTACT ON DEMAND SAVINGS PROGRAM Call: Visit: /FOCUSONENERGY 54
47 Community Energy Conversations Lynn Hobbie, Senior Vice President - Marketing and Communications Madison Gas and Electric Company
48 Community Energy Conversations Ten years ago, we held our first community energy conversations. Informed our Energy 2015 Plan Increased wind energy Grew our green pricing program Discontinued coal at the downtown plant
49 Community Energy Conversations Our Energy World is Changing We invite you to help MGE build a community energy company for the future. With your help, MGE will create: An energy plan that sets direction for the next 10 to 15 years for our energy supply mix and customer services. A set of next steps programs, projects, and opportunities to work together with customers to move us in that direction.
50 Community Energy Conversations We are seeking input. We ve created a Discussion Guide that explores opportunities and challenges in a world of evolving technology. Inviting customers to read it and share feedback with us.
51 Community Energy Conversations We are seeking input. We ve hired Justice and Sustainability Associates (JSA) to conduct in-person conversations. Began with introductory meetings with various groups and stakeholders. Holding 50 or more small group, deliberative conversations now and through fall.
52 Community Energy Conversations Objectives We want to take advantage of new technology and respond to our customers evolving needs and preferences. We ve identified the following objectives that, taken together, reflect the kind of energy company we want to be in the future to best serve our community with respect to rapidly changing technology.
53 Community Energy Conversations Objectives Objective 1: Provide our customers with options they want today and in the future. Objective 2: Help our customers control their energy use and costs, which in turn will minimize the need for costly new electric generation and distribution systems. Objective 3: Transition MGE to a more environmentally sustainable energy supply. Objective 4: Provide a dynamic, integrated electric grid that supports a range of distributed and centralized energy technologies and reliable service to MGE customers at a reasonable cost. Objective 5: Ensure that changing technology serves all customers equitably.
54 Community Energy Conversations Lend your voice to this important conversation. Visit mge.com/conversations where you can: Read the Discussion Guide and related information Send us your feedback via an online work sheet Major Customer Community Energy Conversation
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