NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HOW LARGE ARE THE IMPACTS OF CARBON MOTIVATED BORDER TAX ADJUSTMENTS. Yan Dong John Whalley

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1 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HOW LARGE ARE THE IMPACTS OF CARBON MOTIVATED BORDER TAX ADJUSTMENTS Yan Dong John Whalley Workng Paper NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambrdge, MA December 2009 We are grateful to the Ontaro Research Fund (ORF-3), CIGI, and the Socal Scences and Humantes Research Councl for fnancal support, and to Jng Wang and Hufang Tan for dscusson and comment The vews expressed heren are those of the author(s) and do not necessarly reflect the vews of the Natonal Bureau of Economc Research. NBER workng papers are crculated for dscusson and comment purposes. They have not been peerrevewed or been subect to the revew by the NBER Board of Drectors that accompanes offcal NBER publcatons by Yan Dong and John Whalley. All rghts reserved. Short sectons of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted wthout explct permsson provded that full credt, ncludng notce, s gven to the source.

2 How Large are the Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Tax Adustments Yan Dong and John Whalley NBER Workng Paper No December 2009 JEL No. F13,F18,F53 ABSTRACT Ths paper dscusses the sze of mpact of carbon motvated border tax adustments on world trade. We report numercal smulaton results whch suggest that mpacts on welfare, trade, and emssons wll lkely be small. Ths s because proposed measures use carbon emssons n the mportng country n producng goods smlar to mports rather than carbon content n calculatng the sze of barrers. Moreover, because border adustments nvolve both tarffs and export rebates, t s the dfferences n emssons ntensty across sector rather than emssons level whch matters. Where there s no dfference n emssons ntenstes across sectors, Lerner symmetry holds for the border adustment and no relatve effects occur. In our numercal smulaton analyses border tax adustments accompany carbon emsson reducton commtments made ether unlaterally, or as part of a global treaty and to be appled aganst non sgnatores. We use a four-regon (US, EU, Chna, ROW) general equlbrum structure whch captures energy trade and has endogenously determned energy supply so that global emssons can change wth polcy changes. We calbrate our model to 2006 data and analyze the potental mpacts of both EU and US carbon prcng at varous levels, ether along wth or wthout carbon motvated BTAs polces on welfare, emssons, trade flows and producton. Results ndcate only small mpacts of these measures on global emssons, trade and welfare, but the sgns of effects are as expected. BTAs allevate leakage effects as expected. In trade mpacts, compared wth no BTAs, BTAs reduce mports of commttng countres, and ncrease mports by other countres. EU and US BTAs aganst Chna reduce exports by Chna. Wth BTAs, the value of producton n the country wth carbon reducton measures are ntroduced ncreases, and other country s producton decreases compared wth the case of no BTAs. Wth the contracton of world trade flows caused by the fnancal crss, carbon motvated BTAs offer a prospect of a compoundng effect n a world whch s gong protectonst and decarbonzed at the same tme, but the added effects of BTAs seems small. Yan Dong Insttute of World Economcs and Poltcs Chnese Academy of Socal Scences 15th Floor of CASS Buldng No.5 Janguomen Ne Avenue Beng, Chna, dongyan@cass.org.cn John Whalley Department of Economcs Socal Scence Centre Unversty of Western Ontaro London, Ontaro N6A 5C2 CANADA and NBER whalley@uwo.ca

3 1. Introducton Emergng polcy proposals for carbon based tarffs or border tax adustments by EU, US and other OECD countres aganst developng countres that do not partcpate n global emssons reducton agreements are a central ssue for current clmate change negotatons 1. Although not formally part of the post Bal road map, de facto the threat of such measures s a central part of the negotaton process. Proposals for carbon motvated tax adustments nclude both mport tarffs (carbon tarffs) and export rebates by countres wth emssons reducton commtments aganst those wthout commtments. Such border adustments by partcpatng countres are drven by two related obectves. One s to provde compettveness offsets for domestc producers snce the added costs for domestc producers nvolved wth domestc carbon prcng mpose a compettve dsadvantage on them. The other s leakage,.e. that the reductons n emssons n partcpatng countres such as the EU and the US generate ncreases n emssons elsewhere. For countres such as Chna, who are heavly export-orented, and towards manufactures, the prospect s one of a world beng decarbonzed and gong protectonst at the same tme aganst a background of a contnung downturn n world trade for the fnancal crss. Border tax adustments and both ther ratonal and effects on trade s not a new topc. Earler debate on border tax adustments occurred followng the adopton of the value added tax n the EU as a tax harmonzaton target n the early 1960 s (see Dosser (1967), Shbata (1967), Krauss & Johnson (1972)). The academc lterature at that tme suggested that wth BTAs, a change between orgn and destnaton s smply that between a broadly based producton and consumpton rate both of whch are neutral, wth no drect effects on trade. Neutralty of trade, producton, and consumpton effects would thus preval under a tax bass change (see Krauss & Johnson (1972), Whalley (1979), Grossman (1980), and Lockwood et al.(1994)). As recently noted by Lockwood & Whalley (2008), carbon motvated border tax adustments dffer by product and sector, and so unlke n the debate on the VAT one needs to dstngush between prce level and relatve prce effects (Neumark (1963), Hufbauer(1996)). Wth product or sector specfc BTAs, relatve prce effects wll come nto play, and neutralty only holds n specal cases. Ths paper presents numercal smulaton results explorng the effects of carbon motvated border tax adustments n large OECD economes on welfare, global and country emssons, 1 See Brewer(2008), Dröge & Kemfert (2005),Weber & Peters(2009). 3

4 trade flows and producton 1. We use a mult-regon general equlbrum structure coverng the US, EU, Chna and a resdual rest of the world. In ths, countres produce commodtes of varyng emssons ntenstes usng substtutable fossl fuel based ol and non-ol nputs. Unlke n conventonal trade models n whch there s a fxed endowment of factor nputs for each country, here we ncorporate a supply functon for energy exportng countres wth ncreasng extracton costs. Snce emssons are drectly related to energy use n producton, emssons levels globally are endogenously determned and can change wth polcy change. In our numercal smulaton analyss of BTA s we construct a benchmark global equlbrum data set based on data for 2006 usng a number of data sources. Ths covers producton, consumpton, and trade between the four regons (Chna,EU,US, ROW).We calbrate our model to ths data set usng lterature based estmates of key elastctes. Results show that BTAs effects generally are small, dependng on the carbon prcng (or sze of emssons mtgatons) adopted by mportng countres. Ths s because both usng carbon emssons n producton of comparable goods n mportng countres produces small barrers compared to usng drect carbon content of goods and what produces real sde effects s the dfference n emsson ntensty across goods not the level of emsson. Carbon border adustments are not neutral snce border tax adustments n the carbon case are sector specfc and relatve prce effects occur. Carbon BTAs allevate the leakage effects as expected, but counteract the global emssons reducton effect of carbon prcng. Compared wth no BTAs, BTAs reduce mports of commttng countres, and ncrease mports by other countres. Wth BTAs the value of producton n countres wth carbon taxes ncreases, and other country s producton (n value terms) decreases compared wth no BTAs. 1 There are also legal ssues as to the GATT compatblty of such schemes. There are not dscussed here. See De Cendra(2006), Ismer & Neuhoff(2007). 4

5 2. The Model We use a 4 country general equlbrum model coverng the US and the EU as the sgnfcant potental users of border tax adustments, Chna as the maor possble target country, and a resdual rest of the world. There are no explct dynamcs. We use a sngle perod model based on 2006 data, whch can be nterpreted as a steady state. Regon utlty functons drectly ncorporate temperature change. We capture the ncremental mpacts of BTAs on emssons n 2006, and onto temperature change over 50 years, whch n turn enters utlty. We ndex the 4 countres n the model by and we use k to denote double country terms (exports of country product to country k ). In the model, there are two goods produced n each regon, ndexed by ( = 1, 2 ). Good 1 has hgh energy (emssons) ntensty, and good 2 has low energy (emssons) ntensty. Ths restrcton on dmensonalty s a reflecton of data avalablty. Goods across countres are assumed heterogeneous (the Armngton assumpton). The model specfes one fxed and one varable factor n producton of each good; E s energy nput and s moble across both countres and sectors. We assume ROW s the energy exporter and for smplcty, ROW does not produce fnal goods. Chna, EU and US thus export fnal goods to ROW and mport energy from ROW. In Chna, the EU and the US producton functons are: where k k ( k ) k Y = ϕ E α k =country, =sector k = 1, L 3, = 1,2 (1) k Y s the output of good produced n country k, k E s the energy nput n k country k s producton of good, ϕ are unts terms (scalar parameters), and α < 1 are the k producton exponents. We assume that the energy nput receves ts value margnal product, whch n turn equals the energy prce,e k Y k k k k k ( ) k pe = P = P k ϕα E E α 1 k = 1, L 3, = 1, 2 (2) We assume the Rest of the World s the energy exportng country, but unlke n tradtonal general equlbrum models whch use a fxed endowment of energy, here we ntroduce an extracton cost functon for the energy exportng country nto the model. As a result of the extracton cost functons n ROW, energy supply by ROW and wth ths global 5

6 emssons are now endogenously determned. To keep the model tractable, we model the US, the EU, and Chna as ol mportng wth an exogenous endowment of energy The extracton cost functon we use mples an ncreasng margnal cost of extracton and s wrtten as E. B3 = F( Q) = B1 B2Q (3) K + where K s the extracton cost, and Q (ol) s energy extracted. From the frst-order condtons for the extracton cost functon, we get dk df( Q) B3 p 1 E = = = B2BQ 3 (4) dq dq and the mpled energy supply elastcty s dk K EQ = = B3 1. (5) dq Q Dvdng the extracton cost functon by the energy prce, we can calculate the resources that are used n energy extracton. B3 K B1 + B2Q ER = =. (6) p p E E On the demand sde of the model, we assume a representatve household n each country wth a utlty functon defned over both goods and global temperature change (whch we later relate to emssons). We wrte ths as U = U ( RX, ΔT ) = [ r 1 σ d H H σ d 1 σ d + r 1 σ d L σ d 1 σ d L σ d σ 1 ] d C ΔT ( ) C where followng Ca, Rezman & Whalley (2009), RX s a composte of consumpton of hgh and low energy ntensve goods n all regons n country, and Δ T s global temperature change. H s a composte of hgh emsson goods consumpton across country sources, and σ d L s a composte of low emsson goods consumpton across country sources, s the substtuton elastcty between hgh and low emsson goods n country, β s the utlty weght placed on damage from temperature change. In ths formulaton, we specfy expected damage from emssons today as related to future nduced ncremental temperature change from today s emssons relatve to some upper bound. C can thus be thought of as the global temperature change at whch all economc actvty ceases (say, 20 ). In ths formulaton, as Δ T approaches C, utlty goes to zero; and as Δ T goes to zero, there s no welfare mpact of temperature change. We nterpret β (7) 6

7 Δ T as the temperature change that wll accrue over 50 years out to 2056 as a result of ncremental emssons (energy use) n In the utlty functons, RX s, n turn, a two level nested CES functon. Each regon s assumed to maxmze utlty by frst choosng among hgh and low energy (emsson) ntensty goods, and each regon then chooses among domestc and other country source of supply at a second level. RX can thus be wrtten as RX = f ( X, X, X, X, X, X ) (8) where k X s country s consumpton of good produced n country k. Each of the four regons maxmzes a top level utlty functon subect to a budget constrant. If I s ncome n country, ths can be wrtten as k k P X = I 1, 4 k = L. (9) Income n Chna, EU and US s revenue from the sale of goods mnus mport payments to ROW for energy. It also ncludes revenues from the sale of E, the energy endowment n country. We nclude carbon prcng revenue n the budget constrant, n the form of added costs from an nternal carbon prce (reflected n emssons reducton targets) related to emssons from energy use. We dscuss ths n more detal below. We also ncorporate border measures reflectng tarffs on mports and rebates on exports under border tax adustments.if we assume an exogenously gven trade mbalance, the ncome sde of the budget constrant becomes where I = P Y p ( E E ) + RC + R + TR = 1, L 3. (10) E RC s carbon prcng revenue, R s mport tarff revenue, and TR are exogenous transfers between countres (net goods mport plus net energy mport). These can be zero, but ncorporatng them allows calbraton to unbalanced trade data. Income n the ROW ncludes energy export revenues and addng transfers from or to abroad gves I = pe Q K + (11) 4 TR 4 In the model we also ncorporate a temperature change functon specfyng how temperature change vares wth annual emssons levels, assumed to preval over a number of years. For smplcty, we abstract from emssons growth n later years due to GDP growth, and any changes n emssons ntensty per unt of GDP. Ths s a strong assumpton gven 7

8 both growth and emssons ntenstes change n Chna, but s adopted to keep the model smple and tractable. Assumng emssons are related drectly to the amount of energy consumpton allows us to wrte the temperature change functon drectly as a functon of energy consumpton,.e. ) b b ΔT = g( E ) = a( E c (12) + In equlbrum, prces for fnal goods and energy are such that goods and factor markets clear. Goods market clearng mples: k k X = Y = 1, L 4, =1,2, k = 1, L 3 (13) Snce energy s moble across countres, n equlbrum global energy consumpton must equal global energy extracton. The energy clearng condton s thus: where E = E + ( Q ER) = 1, L 3 (14) E s energy consumpton, E s the combned energy endowment n Chna, EU and US, and ( Q ER) are the energy sales by the ROW (energy extracton mnus resources used n extracton). We complete the model by specfyng possble polcy nterventons lnked to country carbon prcng and use of border measures. For each good produced n country k, we defne the producer s prce (net of carbon prcng and border measures) as P k. The nternal consumer prces n country for good mported from country k (gross of carbon prcng and border measures) are denoted by P k, and are gven by P k where = P + λ p (15) k k c p c s the exogenous prce of carbon, λ k s the emssons ntensty of good produced n country k. Ths treatment nvolves applyng a border adustment based on the carbon prced emssons costs of producton n the mportng country. Ths dffers from usng drect carbon content of goods as n Mattoo et al.(2009), whch produces sharply hgher barrers. λ k pc s thus the carbon motvated consumer prce adustment for good produced n country mported by country k. The adustments we consder nclude dfferent forms of carbon prcng, carbon motvated mport tarffs and carbon motvated export rebates. If we consder country k as the country potentally adoptng both carbon prcng and border adustments. 8 λ k s emsson ntensty of

9 good produced n country k. The adustment at the border for exports by country to country k s λ k pc, and ths same adustment s used for all domestc producton f there s no export rebate. If export rebates apply exports from country k can be sold abroad at k P rather than P k and producers domestcally can stll cover costs. These are no border tax adustments faced by goods enhancng country k f k has no carbon prcng. We fnally also consder cases where the mportng country k only uses carbon tarffs as the border measure when they adopt carbon prcng, and do not use export rebates. 9

10 3. Data and Model Calbraton To use ths model to analyze the mpacts of varous border tax adustments, we frst buld a model compatble benchmark general equlbrum data set, whch we then use n model calbraton. Our base case data ncludes 2006 trade, producton, and consumpton data (as well as data on energy use) for our good of 2 sector classfcatgon (energy /non energy ntensve), and 1 varable factor (energy) structure for 4 regons (Chna, US, EU, ROW). Table 1 sets out the man features of the data set we have assembled n ths form. In Table 1-1, GDP data s from the World Bank s WDI database. The hgh-emsson sector n each country s taken to be the manufacturng ndustry. The low-emsson sector n each country s taken to be servce and agrcultural sectors. For Table 1-2, trade data s taken from the UNCOMTRADE database, and F.o.b. export values as reported by exportng countres are used. Ths data as reported aggregates energy and goods trade data n value terms. In Table 1-3, energy data for 2005 s from IEA energy statstcs. The unt of account used n the IEA statstcs data s thousand of tonnes of ol equvalent, whch we convert to bllon US dollars, (assumng 1 toe = 7.33 barrel of ol equvalent, ol prce (2006 average)=$50.64/per barrel). The extracton cost data for ROW s calculated usng the IEA energy balance table. We use all of ths data along sde 2006 trade producton and consumpton data. Table 1-4 reports 2006 sector energy ntenstes calculated usng GDP and energy consumpton data by country. These ntenstes are 4 tmes hgher n Chna than n the US and 8 tmes hgher n Chna than n the EU for the energy ntensty sector, and even larger for the non energy ntensve sectors. Table 1-5 presents data on goods consumpton by regon, after adustments are made to consumpton so as to be compatble wth GDP mnus exports. Table 1-6 reports 2006 aggregate energy consumpton data from IEA sources. 10

11 Table 1 Data Used n Model Calbraton Table GDP by Sector by Regon (Bllon $) Chna EU-27 US ROW Hgh Low Hgh Low Hgh Low Hgh Low GDP by sector GDP Source: World Bank s WDI database, OPEC Annual Statstcs Bulletn Table Blateral Trade Data (Bllon $) Export by Chna Import by Chna EU-27 US ROW Hgh Low Total Hgh EU-27 Low Total Hgh US Low Total Source: UNCOMTRADE database Table Adusted Energy (Ol) Balance Data (Bllon $) Hgh Low bllon $ Energy Net emsson Emsson Consumpton Endowment Import sector sector nput nput Chna Eu US ROW World ROW extracton cost data(bllon $) bllon $ Extracton Extracton cost Energy Endowment ROW Source: IEA ol statstcs 11

12 Table 1-4 Emsson Intensty Data tonne / bllon $ Hgh Energy Intensty Sector Low Energy Intensty Sector Chna Eu US Table 1-5 Consumpton of Domestc Goods (2006) (Bllon $) Consumpton of Domestc Goods Hgh ol ntensty goods Low ol ntensty goods Chna Eu US Table 1-6 Energy Consumpton by Regon n 2006 (Bllon US $) Year Chna EU-27 US ROW World Source: Internatonal Energy Agency: Key World Energy Statstcs, We calbrate the model to ths base case data set n whch no border adustments operate usng the standard calbraton methods set out n Shoven and Whalley (1984). Gven the use of both CES functons and an energy extracton functon n ROW, elastcty parameters play an mportant role n the analyss. In the central case model analyses elastcty parameters are set as follows. The consumpton elastcty that s the top level substtuton elastcty between hgh and low emsson goods n consumpton n all regons s set equal to 0.5. The lower level trade elastcty, e the substtuton elastctes between domestc and mported commodtes follow a rule of two, that s the substtuton elastcty between domestc and mported goods s set equal to 2, as dscussed n Hertel al. (2009). Ths rule was frst proposed by Jomn et al.(1991) and later tested by Lu, Arndt,and Hertel(2002) n a back-castng exercse wth a smplfed verson of the GTAP model. The extracton / energy supply elastcty n ROW s

13 For the temperature change functon, we follow Ca, Rezman and Whalley(2009) who use proectons of temperature change and emssons out to 2056 as Busness as Usual scenaros (BAU). We use a power functon ( = b ΔT = g E ) 0.001( E ) (17) wth g and b determned by calbraton to emssons levels n the BAU scenaro. We assume a temperature change ΔT Stern(2002)). of 5 between 2006 and 2056 (consstent wth Table 2 then reports the calbrated preference parameters n equaton (7) under alternatve damage assumptons from ncremental temperature change out to As dscussed n Ca et al.(2009), the calbrated share parameter β s a reflecton of the assumed severty of damage from ncremental temperature change. In our central case, we assume a BAU utlty loss of 3% of GDP n welfare equvalent terms from a 5 temperature change out to Ths mples β = We use the same value of β for all regons. Table 2-1 reports the parameter values n producton, preferences and extracton cost functons generated by calbraton. These are ndependent of the assumed utlty damage due to temperature change. 13

14 Table 2-1 Model Parameterzatons Generated by Calbraton to the 2006 Benchmark Data A. Parameters n C-D producton functons Chna EU-27 US hgh emsson goods low emsson goods hgh emsson goods low emsson goods hgh emsson goods low emsson goods technology coeffcent shares on energy B. Parameters n Nested CES Utlty functons Shares of hgh and low energy (emsson) composte goods hgh emsson goods Chna EU-27 US ROW low hgh low hgh low hgh emsson emsson emsson emsson emsson emsson goods goods goods goods goods goods low emsson goods Shares of consumpton of hgh energy (emsson) domestc and mport goods Chna EU-27 US ROW Chna-H EU-H US-H Shares of consumpton of low energy (emsson) domestc and mport goods Chna-L EU-L US-L C. Parameters n Extracton functons Constant Parameter Coeffcent parameter Constant Parameter

15 Table 2-2 shows the sze of EU and US border measures assocated wth carbon prcng at dfferent assumed levels. These are the border measures we use n our numercal k smulaton analyses. These follow drectly from equatons (15), P = P + λ p, and use the data n Table 2-2. From these we calculated the prce adustment at the border as λ p P. As can be seen, the barrers are small. Even when carbon prcng s assumed at $200 /ton, EU s mport barrers are stll less than 3%. The US prce adustment rate s hgher than the EU, but the level s stll small. k k c k c k Table 2-2 Levels of EU and US Carbon Taxng and Border Measures Carbon Prcng Assumed EU US $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton Hgh emsson goods 0.360% 0.720% 1.440% 2.879% Low emsson goods 0.325% 0.649% 1.298% 2.597% Hgh emsson goods 0.634% 1.267% 2.535% 5.070% Low emsson goods 0.448% 0.896% 1.793% 3.585% As we note above, these border measures contrast wth sgnfcantly hgher barrers f the carbon content of goods s used, as n Mattoo et al.(2009). These are also sharp dfferences f the emssons mpled by producton n exportng countres are used snce emssons ntenstes n our data are sharply huger n Chna than n the US and the EU. 15

16 4. Numercal Analyss of the Effects of Dfferent Carbon Motvated Border Measures We have used the resultng calbrated model based on the date n secton 3 above to smulate the mpacts of carbon prcng and border tax adustments on country welfare and global emssons, cross country trade flows and on producton by country. The carbon motvated polces nclude domestc carbon prcng at varous assumed prces wthout BTAs, smlar carbon prcng wth BTAs, and carbon prcng wth only an mport tarff (no export rebates). Results from comparng the base case data to model solutons generated for these border and domestc measures are presented n Tables 3-1 to 3-6. The mpacts generally on all countres from carbon motvated border measures are small. These reflect both the calculaton of border measures dscussed earler and based on the emssons generated by comparable domestc producton n the mportng country, rather than the carbon contaned n the mported good, and the role played by the dfference n emsson ntensty across sectors rather than levels. We use carbon emssons by domestc producton n the mportng country measure as ths correspond to proposed border measures n the US case. The result also confrm that BTAs are not neutral n ther mpacts due to sector specfcty, and hence relatve prce effects occurs. As for the effects of BTAs on emssons, BTAs allevate leakage effects as expected 1, whch counteract the emssons reducton effects of country carbon prcng. As for trade flows, compared wth no BTAs, BTAs reduce the mports of countres mplementng measures and ncrease the mports of other countres. Wth carbon prcng and BTAs the value of producton n countres wth carbon taxes ncreases, and other country producton values decrease compared no BTAs. In Table 3-1, we report the results of both carbon prcng and border tax adustments (mport tarff and export rebate) beng used by the EU aganst the US and Chna as an example of a BTA polcy change n the model. We make dfferent assumptons on the levels of domestc carbon prcng whch vary between $25/ton and $200/ton, and report results n each case. We frst measure welfare mpacts usng Hcksan compensatng varaton measures across base case and new equlbra, appled to the country utlty functons specfed n the model descrpton above. In these utlty based welfare measures the welfare mpacts of clmate change appears drectly, unlke other models. Compared wth no carbon 1 Also see the dscuss of leakage n Demally et al(2005), Demaret & Stewardson(1994),Fscher & Fox(2009). 16

17 prcng, all countres welfare ncreases despte the use of border measures aganst the US and Chna. Ths reflects the ont utlty gan from reduced emssons due to EU carbon prcng. Global emssons fall and as expected EU emssons decrease, and US and Chna ncrease emssons. In terms of trade mpacts, the EU reduces mports of non energy ntensve goods whle Chna and the US ncrease mports of non energy ntensve goods. The value of domestc producton n the EU, the US and Chna ncreases as prces rse due to carbon prcng and the use of border measures. Results n Table 3-1 show that sector specfc BTAs are non neutral n mpacts f carbon prcng occurs when energy ntenstes are dfferent between sectors. 17

18 Table 3-1 Impacts of Carbon Prcng and Border Tax Adustments by EU aganst US and Chna Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. Welfare Impacts of Hcksan EV as % of GDP 2.Impacts on Emssons (% change) 3.Impacts on Imports of non Energy goods by value at seller s prces (% change) $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % US 0.027% 0.055% 0.109% 0.219% Chna 0.032% 0.064% 0.127% 0.255% Total % % % % EU % % % % US 0.043% 0.086% 0.173% 0.345% Chna 0.043% 0.085% 0.168% 0.333% 4. Impacts on domestc producton (% change) Energy Intensve EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % Energy Non-Intensve EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % 18

19 In Tables 3-2 to 3-6, we use our central case model specfcaton, to analyze three broad groupngs of country carbon prcng arrangements and accompanyng BTAs. These are only the EU has carbon prcng, only the US has carbon prcng and both the EU and US ontly have carbon prcng. For the frst group for whch the EU has carbon prcng, we analyze the mpacts of three sub forms, the EU has no BTAs, the EU has BTAs aganst Chna and US, and the EU have mport tarffs aganst Chna and the US. In the second group, n whch the US has carbon prcng, we agan analyze three sub forms, US has no BTAs, US has BTAs aganst Chna and the EU, and US have mport tarffs aganst Chna and the EU. In the thrd group, both the EU and US have carbon prcng and we analyze seven sub forms n ths case. These are both EU and US have no BTAs, both the EU and the US have BTAs aganst Chna, both the EU and the US have mport tarffs aganst Chna (wth no export rebates), only EU has BTAs aganst Chna, only EU has mport tarff aganst Chna, only US has BTAs aganst Chna, only US has tarff aganst Chna. We agan make calculatons for dfferent carbon prcng assumptons of $25 /ton, $50/ton, $100 /ton, and $200 /ton. We report Hcksan EVs as a percentage of ncome. Generally n these results carbon prcng wthout BTAs ncreases domestc welfare and also decreases or ncreases other country s welfare due to terms of trade effects. Ths s llustrated n case 2.1. Here, carbon prcng n the EU wthout BTAs ncreases EU s welfare, reduces Chna s welfare, and ncreases US s welfare. These results occur because Chna faces a hgher consumer prce for mported goods from the EU and reduce ther consumpton of EU goods. Wth carbon prcng assumed at $25 /ton, $50/ton, $100 /ton, $200 /ton, welfare changes are stll small; for the EU %, %, % and % of ncome, for the US %, %, % and % of ncome, and Chna %, %, % and % of ncome. Import tarffs ncrease the welfare of the country wth carbon taxes, and reduce the welfare of other countres. In case 1.3, compared wth case 1.1, EU s mport tarffs ncrease EU welfare, but reduce US and Chna welfare, due to possble terms of trade effects. Ths n large part also reflects the small sze of barrers, whch gven elastctes n the model are below optmal tarffs. BTAs ncrease the welfare of all countres, snce export rebates by the carbon prcng country reduce the mport prces n other countres, ncreasng other country consumpton. In case 1.3, compared wth case 1.1, EU s mport tarffs ncrease the welfare of EU, US and Chna. Cases 2 and 3 show smlar results. 19

20 Table 3-2 Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Measures on Welfare (Hcksan EV as % of GDP) Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. EU Carbon Prcng 1.1 No BTA $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 1.2 EU BTA aganst Chna, US US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 1.3 EU tarff aganst Chna, US US % % % % Chna % % % % 2. US Carbon Prcng EU % % % % 2.1 No BTA US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 2.2 US BTA aganst Chna, EU US % % % % Chna % % % % 2.3 US tarff aganst Chna, EU 3. EU and US Carbon Prcng 3.1 No BTA EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 3.2 EU and US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % Chna % % % % 3.3 EU and US tarff aganst Chna EU % % % % US % % % % Chna % % % % 20

21 EU % % % % 3.4 Only EU BTA aganst Chna US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 3.5 Only EU tarff aganst Chna US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 3.6 Only US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % Chna % % % % EU % % % % 3.7 Only US tarff aganst Chna US % % % % Chna % % % % 21

22 Table 3-3 reports mpacts on country emssons. Agan, these are small, but n total the effects reduce global emssons. Carbon prcng wthout BTAs reduces the emssons of each countres usng carbon prcng and ncreases other country s emssons. They reduce global emssons, but leakage effects arse. In case 1.1, EU carbon taxes wthout BTAs reduce the emssons of the EU and ncrease the emssons of Chna and the US. Wth carbon prcng assumed at $25 /ton, $50/ton, $100 /ton, or $200 /ton, the changes n EU emssons are %,-0.417%,-0.836% and % respectvely. The changes n US emssons are 0.094%,0.187%,0.376% and 0.755% respectvely, and changes n Chna s emssons are 0.098%,0.196%,0.394% and 0.791% respectvely. Global emssons change by %, %,-0.013% and % respectvely, wth only small effects. In case 2.1, US carbon taxes reduce the emssons of the US and ncrease the emssons of Chna and EU. In case 3.1, both EU and US carbon prcng reduce EU and US emssons and ncreases Chna s emssons. Although BTAs allevate leakage effects as expected, they also counteract the emssons reducton effects of carbon prcng. In case 1.2, wth carbon prcng assumed at $25 /ton, $50/ton, $100 /ton, or $200 /ton, global emssons change by %,-0.001%,-0.003%, and % respectvely. Compared wth case 1.1, BTAs make the global emssons reductons smaller. Ths s because Chna and EU emssons ncreases are smaller and the EU emssons ncrease rses due to border measures n the form of export rebates and mport tarffs. Cases 2.2, 3.2,3.4, 3.6 show smlar results. Table 3-3 also reports the emssons effects of carbon prcng wth carbon tarffs alone (no export rebates). Comparng case 1.3 wth 1.2, the effects of carbon tarffs are smlar to BTAs. They allevate leakage effects as expected, and also counteract the emssons reducton effects of carbon prcng. The effects of carbon tarff are a lttle smaller than BTAs. 2.3, 3.3, 3.5, 3.7 show smlar results to case

23 Table 3-3 Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Measures on Emssons (Energy Use) (% Change n Emssons) Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. EU Carbon Prcng $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU % % % % 1.1 No BTA 1.2 EU BTA aganst Chna, US 1.3 EU tarff aganst Chna, US 2. US Carbon Prcng US 0.094% 0.187% 0.376% 0.755% Chna 0.098% 0.196% 0.394% 0.791% Total % % % % EU % % % % US 0.027% 0.055% 0.109% 0.219% Chna 0.032% 0.064% 0.127% 0.255% Total % % % % EU % % % % US 0.055% 0.109% 0.219% 0.440% Chna 0.039% 0.077% 0.155% 0.312% Total % % % % EU 0.196% 0.393% 0.789% 1.590% 2.1 No BTA 2.2 US BTA aganst Chna, EU 2.3 US tarff aganst Chna, EU 3. EU and US Carbon Prcng 3.1 No BTA 3.2 EU and US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % Chna 0.188% 0.377% 0.756% 1.526% Total % % % % EU 0.053% 0.106% 0.212% 0.424% US % % % % Chna 0.060% 0.119% 0.239% 0.477% Total % % % % EU 0.088% 0.177% 0.355% 0.714% US % % % % Chna 0.081% 0.162% 0.326% 0.654% Total % % % % EU % % % % US % % % % Chna 0.286% 0.575% 1.158% 2.348% Total % % % % EU 0.066% 0.132% 0.263% 0.528% US % % % % 23

24 3.3 EU and US tarff aganst Chna 3.4 Only EU BTA aganst Chna 3.5 Only EU tarff aganst Chna 3.6 Only US BTA aganst Chna 3.7 Only US tarff aganst Chna Chna 0.101% 0.202% 0.405% 0.816% Total % % % % EU 0.058% 0.115% 0.231% 0.464% US % % % % Chna 0.120% 0.241% 0.484% 0.977% Total % % % % EU 0.054% 0.109% 0.218% 0.442% US % % % % Chna 0.210% 0.422% 0.848% 1.713% Total % % % % EU 0.046% 0.092% 0.185% 0.376% US % % % % Chna 0.218% 0.437% 0.880% 1.780% Total % % % % EU % % % % US % % % % Chna 0.177% 0.355% 0.715% 1.448% Total % % % % EU % % % % US % % % % Chna 0.189% 0.379% 0.763% 1.546% Total % % % % 24

25 Tables 3-4 and 3-5 show the mpacts of carbon prcng and border measures on trade flows n the form of mports and exports. Table 3-4 compares the effects of carbon prcng wthout BTAs, wth BTAs, and wth only a tarff on mports. Carbon prcng generally ncreases mports of domestc countres and reduces mports of other countres. In case 1.1, the EU s carbon tax ncreases EU s mport of hgh and low emsson ntensve goods, and reduces US and Chna s mports of hgh and low emsson ntensve goods. In case 2.1, US s carbon tax ncreases US s mports and reduces Chna s mports. In case 3.1 ont EU and US carbon prcng ncreases both EU and US s mports and reduces Chna s mports. Wth BTAs carbon prcng reduces country s mport due to the mport tarff, and other country s mports ncrease due to the export rebate of the carbon prcng country. For the case of only an mport tarff wthout an export rebate, mports of the country wth a carbon tax decrease further and other country s mports ncrease less compared wth full BTAs. In case 3.2, EU and US BTAs aganst Chna ncrease EU mports compared to the case wthout BTAs. Ths s because the energy ntensty of EU producton s lower than the US the EU s carbon motvated mport tarff rate and export rebate rate s lower than that of the US. 25

26 Table 3-4 Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Measures on Imports % Change of Imports of Hgh Emssons Goods % Change of Imports of Low Emssons Goods Carbon Prcng Assumed Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. EU Carbon Prcng $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU 0.105% 0.211% 0.422% 0.845% 0.163% 0.327% 0.654% 1.308% 1.1 No BTA US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 1.2 EU BTA aganst Chna, US US 0.076% 0.151% 0.302% 0.604% 0.043% 0.086% 0.173% 0.345% Chna 0.077% 0.154% 0.308% 0.617% 0.043% 0.085% 0.168% 0.333% EU % % % % % % % % 1.3 EU tarff aganst Chna, US US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 2. US Carbon Prcng EU 0.005% 0.011% 0.021% 0.042% 0.017% 0.034% 0.070% 0.144% 2.1 No BTA US 0.201% 0.403% 0.806% 1.616% 0.277% 0.554% 1.106% 2.207% Chna % % % % % % % % EU 0.114% 0.228% 0.456% 0.913% 0.035% 0.070% 0.140% 0.280% 2.2 US BTA aganst Chna, EU US % % % % 0.084% 0.167% 0.325% 0.617% Chna 0.082% 0.164% 0.328% 0.654% 0.043% 0.084% 0.165% 0.321% 2.3 US tarff aganst Chna, EU EU % % % % % % % % US % % % % 0.015% 0.028% 0.048% 0.069% Chna % % % % % % % % 3. EU and US 26

27 Carbon Prcng 3.1 No BTA EU 0.111% 0.221% 0.443% 0.889% 0.181% 0.362% 0.725% 1.456% US 0.186% 0.373% 0.746% 1.495% 0.252% 0.504% 1.007% 2.009% Chna % % % % % % % % EU 0.143% 0.284% 0.566% 1.124% 0.246% 0.491% 0.980% 1.951% 3.2 EU and US BTA aganst Chna US 0.150% 0.301% 0.609% 1.241% 0.223% 0.444% 0.883% 1.746% Chna 0.148% 0.295% 0.593% 1.194% 0.097% 0.192% 0.382% 0.759% EU 0.096% 0.191% 0.379% 0.752% 0.205% 0.410% 0.818% 1.626% 3.3 EU and US tarff aganst Chna US 0.107% 0.215% 0.437% 0.899% 0.186% 0.372% 0.738% 1.457% Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % 0.077% 0.155% 0.310% 0.622% 3.4 Only EU BTA aganst Chna US 0.264% 0.528% 1.056% 2.111% 0.333% 0.666% 1.330% 2.655% Chna 0.052% 0.104% 0.211% 0.430% % % % % EU % % % % 0.054% 0.108% 0.216% 0.434% 3.5 Only EU tarff aganst Chna US 0.254% 0.507% 1.014% 2.027% 0.322% 0.644% 1.288% 2.570% Chna % % % % % % % % EU 0.261% 0.521% 1.039% 2.066% 0.349% 0.698% 1.394% 2.784% 3.6 Only US BTA aganst Chna US 0.072% 0.147% 0.301% 0.634% 0.142% 0.282% 0.560% 1.102% Chna 0.035% 0.071% 0.147% 0.317% 0.032% 0.064% 0.130% 0.270% 3.7 Only US tarff aganst Chna EU 0.247% 0.494% 0.984% 1.954% 0.332% 0.664% 1.326% 2.644% US 0.039% 0.081% 0.169% 0.370% 0.116% 0.231% 0.458% 0.899% Chna % % % % % % % % 27

28 Table 3-5 compares the effects of carbon prcng wthout BTAs, wth BTAs, and wth only a tarff on exports. Cases 1.1, 2.1 and 3.1 ndcate that carbon prcng reduces the exports of the country or countres usng carbon prcng, and ncreases the exports of other countres. Countres wthout carbon prcng thus have a compettve advantage. Wth BTAs, as shown n case 1.2, 2.2, 3.2,3.4 and 3.6,wth EU BTAs aganst Chna, US BTAs aganst Chna,and both EU and US BTAs aganst Chna, Chna s exports fall n value terms compared wth no BTAs. When there s only a carbon tarff and no export rebates n the carbon prcng country, carbon tarffs reduce all countes exports compared to BTAs. 28

29 Table 3-5 Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Measures on Exports (Value Term) % Change of Exports of Hgh Emssons Goods % Change of Exports of Low Emssons Goods Carbon Prcng Assumed Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. EU Carbon Prcng $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU % % % % % % % % 1.1 No BTA US 0.015% 0.031% 0.061% 0.123% 0.045% 0.091% 0.181% 0.361% Chna 0.024% 0.047% 0.095% 0.191% 0.064% 0.129% 0.257% 0.514% EU % % % % % % % % 1.2 EU BTA aganst Chna, US US 0.031% 0.063% 0.127% 0.256% 0.090% 0.179% 0.356% 0.704% Chna 0.010% 0.020% 0.040% 0.082% 0.054% 0.108% 0.214% 0.423% EU % % % % % % % % 1.3 EU tarff aganst Chna, US US % % % % 0.058% 0.116% 0.230% 0.453% Chna % % % % 0.042% 0.083% 0.165% 0.325% 2. US Carbon Prcng EU 0.025% 0.050% 0.101% 0.204% 0.038% 0.077% 0.152% 0.300% 2.1 No BTA US % % % % % % % % Chna 0.051% 0.103% 0.206% 0.414% 0.104% 0.209% 0.418% 0.834% EU 0.006% 0.013% 0.028% 0.065% 0.146% 0.291% 0.574% 1.119% 2.2 US BTA aganst Chna, EU US % % % % % % % % Chna 0.006% 0.012% 0.025% 0.056% 0.106% 0.212% 0.419% 0.819% 2.3 US tarff aganst Chna, EU EU % % % % 0.114% 0.226% 0.445% 0.863% US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % 0.096% 0.192% 0.379% 0.740% 29

30 3. EU and US Carbon Prcng 3.1 No BTA EU % % % % % % % % US % % % % % % % % Chna 0.075% 0.150% 0.302% 0.609% 0.169% 0.338% 0.677% 1.355% EU 0.064% 0.127% 0.254% 0.506% 0.066% 0.131% 0.257% 0.499% 3.2 EU and US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % 0.048% 0.095% 0.191% 0.382% Chna 0.016% 0.033% 0.068% 0.146% 0.169% 0.338% 0.671% 1.323% EU 0.041% 0.082% 0.163% 0.323% 0.040% 0.080% 0.156% 0.297% 3.3 EU and US tarff aganst Chna US % % % % 0.002% 0.004% 0.009% 0.020% Chna % % % % 0.137% 0.273% 0.541% 1.065% EU % % % % % % % % 3.4 Only EU BTA aganst Chna US % % % % 0.020% 0.039% 0.078% 0.154% Chna 0.061% 0.122% 0.245% 0.496% 0.151% 0.301% 0.601% 1.199% EU % % % % % % % % 3.5 Only EU tarff aganst Chna US % % % % 0.009% 0.017% 0.034% 0.068% Chna 0.037% 0.074% 0.149% 0.305% 0.137% 0.274% 0.547% 1.090% EU 0.057% 0.113% 0.225% 0.446% 0.070% 0.139% 0.274% 0.531% 3.6 Only US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna 0.031% 0.062% 0.128% 0.271% 0.188% 0.374% 0.745% 1.477% 3.7 Only US tarff aganst Chna EU 0.049% 0.097% 0.192% 0.380% 0.062% 0.124% 0.243% 0.469% US % % % % % % % % Chna 0.007% 0.015% 0.033% 0.080% 0.169% 0.337% 0.670% 1.328% 30

31 In Table 3-6, we analyze the mpacts of carbon prcng and BTAs on producton. As shown n cases 1.1, 2.1 and 3.1, carbon prcng wthout BTAs ncreases the value of producton of all countres as prces rse wth the added cost of carbon n the carbon prcng country. But wth BTAs, the value of producton n the country wth carbon prcng ncreases, and other country s producton value decreases compared to the case of no BTAs. A carbon tarff alone has smlar effects to those of BTAs, though the effect s relatvely smaller. 31

32 Table 3-6 Impacts of Carbon Motvated Border Measures on Producton (Value Terms) % Change of Hgh Emssons Goods Producton % Change of Low Emssons Goods Producton Carbon Prcng Assumed Carbon Prcng Assumed 1. EU Carbon Prcng $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton $25 /ton $50 /ton $100 /ton $200 /ton EU % % % % % % % % 1.1 No BTA US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 1.2 EU BTA aganst Chna, US US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 1.3 EU tarff aganst Chna, US US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 2. US Carbon Prcng EU % % % % % % % % 2.1 No BTA US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 2.2 US BTA aganst Chna, EU US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 2.3 US tarff aganst Chna, EU EU % % % % % % % % US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 32

33 3. EU and US Carbon Prcng 3.1 No BTA EU % % % % % % % % US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 3.2 EU and US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 3.3 EU and US tarff aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 3.4 Only EU BTA aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 3.5 Only EU tarff aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % EU % % % % % % % % 3.6 Only US BTA aganst Chna US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 3.7 Only US tarff aganst Chna EU % % % % % % % % US % % % % % % % % Chna % % % % % % % % 33

34 4. Conclusons In ths paper, we present models from a numercal mult country general equlbrum model wth endogenous determned energy extracton whch we use to analyze the potental mpacts of carbon motvated border adustments on welfare, trade, and emssons. We calbrate our model to 2006 benchmark data, and usng the calbrated parameters analyze the mpacts of EU and US s carbon motvated BTAs on welfare, emssons, trade flows and productons. We compare cases of no carbon prcng, carbon prcng wth BTAs, carbon prcng wth only a carbon tarff n a model wth the US, the EU, Chna and a resdual rest of the world. The most strkng feature of model results s that the mpacts, whle of the sgn predcted, are generally very small. Ths, n turn, reflects the relatvely small barrers nvolved f carbon emssons n producton n the mportng country are used. If BTAs are unform across ndustres when the carbon content of the goods are same, prce level effects result n neutral mpact. Smallness of result thus also reflects the mpact of dfferences n carbon emssons ntensty across producton rather than the level of emssons ntensty. Carbon motvated BTAs are not neutral when border tax adustments are sector specfc and our results show ths, but as we emphasze produce small welfare mpacts. Ths s n contrast to larger mpacts of measures based on carbon content of commodtes as dscussed n Mattoo et al (2009). As for the effects of BTAs on emssons, though BTAs allevate leakage effects as expected, they also counteract the emssons reducton effects of carbon prcng. For trade flows, compared wth no BTAs, BTAs reduce mports of the domestc country, and ncrease the mports of other countres. EU or US BTAs aganst Chna reduce exports n value terms by Chna. Wth BTAs, the value of producton n the mplementng country ncreases wth carbon prcng, and the value of producton n other countres falls compared to the case wth no BTAs. The negotaton n Copenhagen n December 2009 and to follow s to set a new seres of arrangements n place on clmate change whch wll come to play after 2012 n Post-Kyoto world. Developng countres, such as Chna, Brazl, Inda who dd not partcpate n the Kyoto negotaton face pressures from the developed world to partcpate n the new round of negotaton, and the prospect of border tax adustments f they do not partcpate s a maor consderaton for them. 34

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