Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future
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1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future Richard H. Truly, Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory Georgia Institute of Technology Workshop on Sustainable Energy Systems Atlanta, Georgia November 29 - December 1, 2000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Bechtel
2 2500 Nature vs. Humans (Weight of all air and land vertebrates) 2000 Millions of tons Source: Paul B. MacCready Educating for the Student s 25th Birthday, March 7, 2000 You are here. You will soon be here. 2
3 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Non-hydro Renewables Quadrillion BTUs Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas 20 Wood Crude Oil 0 Coal Source: , Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; , Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables , Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b. 3
4 Percent of Total Energy Consumed U.S. Energy Production by Source 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Wood Coal Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Crude Oil Non-hydro Renewables Source: , Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; , Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables 4
5 5
6 Atmospheric Concentration of CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (PPMV) Year Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, The Global Carbon Cycle. 6
7 World Population Growth Three Scenarios Source: National Geographic Society, Millennium in Maps, August
8 World Population Growth, Billions Developing Countries Industrial Countries Source: Population Reference Bureau 8
9 The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy GDP Per Capita ($000/person) Poverty Ethiopia El Salvador Bangladesh Japan France United Kingdom Mexico China Affluence South Korea Poland Russia Energy Consumption Per Capita (BTU/person) United States Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00 Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is
10 Views of the Future World Energy Production 600 Petroleum Industry Dept of Energy; IEA* Capacity Constraints Quadrillion BTUs (est.)! IEA* Energy Savings and Shell Sustained Growth Shell Dematerialization 300 * International Energy Agency Sources of data: Department of Energy, International Energy Outlook 1997, tables 11.1 and 11.2, and page 171; Shell, The Evolution of the World s Energy Systems, converted from exajoules to quads. 10
11 Shell Sustained Growth Scenario 1500 Surprise Geothermal Exajoules Solar Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. Source: Shell, The Evolution of the World s Energy Systems,
12 Renewable Energy Pathways Wind Energy Solar Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Electric Solar Buildings Biomass Electric Biomass Transportation Fuels Geothermal Energy Hydropower Solar Advanced Photoconversion Source: Technology Opportunities to Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oct
13 U.S. Renewable Energy Resources Solar Wind Megajoules/m 12 < > m/s mph m/s mph >7.0 m/s mph Bio mass G eothermal Agricultural resources residues Wood resources and residues Agricultural and wood residues Low inventory o Temperature <90C o Temperature >90C Geopressured resources 13
14 1999 Worldwide Non-Hydro RE Capacity Technology Installed Capacity (MW) Biomass * 35,000 Geothermal 8,250 PV * 800 Solar Thermal 350 Wind 10,000 Total 54,500 * Figures are rounded and approximate. Many biomass and PV generators are off-grid. PV capacity figures are taken from industry reports of cumulative sales. 14
15 Worldwide Photovoltaic Shipments 160 Megawatts per year Rest of World Europe Japan U.S Source: PV News, 1/7/99 15
16 Worldwide Wind Energy Installations 2800 Megawatts per year Rest of World Europe North America Source: International Energy Agency 16
17 Renewable Energy Cost Trends Photovoltaics 17 Cost of electricity ( /kwh) Cost of ethanol ($/gal) 0 Bioethanol Wind Cost of electricity ( /kwh) Geothermal Cost of electricity ( /kwh) Solar Thermal Cost of electricity ( /kwh) Biomass Power Cost of electricity ( /kwh) Source: Billman, Advances in Solar Energy submission, 1/8/99
18 Estimate of Renewable Energy Markets Millions of U.S. Dollars Over next five years India $1,000 - $1,500 Central America & Mexico $ $1,300 China $ $ 600 Southeast Asia $ $ 500 Brazil $ $ 500 Other Latin America and Caribbean $ $ 500 Africa and Middle East $ $ 300 Eastern and Central Europe $ $ 300 Total $2,950 - $5, estimate $5,900! Source: International Finance Corporation 7/7/97 18
19 World Energy Markets Offer Significant Potential North America 108 GW Latin America/ Caribbean 38GW Western Europe 114 GW Middle East/ Africa 33 GW Total World 593 GW Additional electricity capacity needed in various regions, Source: International Energy Outlook, 1997, Table A8 Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union 35 GW Developing Asia 204 GW Other 16 GW Japan/ Australia 61 GW Nations will spend $1 trillion this decade to meet new electric generating needs. (World Bank) The global market for energy efficiency technology and services is $84 billion per year. (International Institute for Energy Conservation) The global market for environmental technologies, (including the U.S.) could grow to $425 billion annually by the year (White House, Technology for a Sustainable Future ) 19
20 National Renewable Energy Laboratory ionly national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D iresearch spans fundamental science to technology solutions icollaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark iresearch programs linked to market opportunities 20
21 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies Efficiency (%) Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) 8 Solarex United Solar 4 RCA
22 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies Efficiency (%) Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) CuInSe 2 RCA Boeing Boeing University of Maine Boeing Boeing ARCO Solarex NREL EuroCIS Boeing United Solar
23 Best Research-Cell Efficiencies Multijunction Concentrators Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) NREL NREL Japan Energy NREL/ SpectroLab Efficiency (%) Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) CuInSe 2 RCA Boeing Boeing University of Maine North Carolina State University Boeing ARCO Boeing Solarex Varian Spire Boeing EuroCIS NREL United Solar
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25 25
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27 Future History Perspective Petroleum Refining Biomass Refining Emergence: First half of the 20th century Imperative: Industrialization Emergence: First half of the 21st century Imperative: Sustainability Advances in organic chemistry Advances in Biotechnology Biofuels Oil Fossil fuels Petrochemicals Chemical Engineering Biomass Biochemicals Power Feed Biocommodity Engineering 27
28 Bioenergy 28
29 Hydrogen Research Hydrogen from photoelectrochemical splitting of water PIX Carbon nanotubes for storage Mutant algal strains used to split water and produce hydrogen in the photobioreactor pictured in the background PIX
30 Buildings of the Future 30
31 Distributed Generation: Shaping the Utility of the Future? 31
32 Wind Energy - Colorado i i i Windsource program from Public Service Co. 20 MW installed in Ponnequin, CO Over 15,000 customers have chosen to pay a premium for green power 32
33 What We Need: An Integrated Approach Technologies: Low cost Reliable Accessible Policies: Stable Consistent Long-term Markets: Sustainable Worldwide Competitive 33
34 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future Richard H. Truly, Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory Georgia Institute of Technology Workshop on Sustainable Energy Systems Atlanta, Georgia November 29 - December 1, 2000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Bechtel
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