ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS SCENARIOS OF POLAND

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS SCENARIOS OF POLAND"

Transcription

1 d ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS SCENARIOS OF POLAND

2 This report was prepared under the direction of Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The principal authors are IEA senior analysts Paweł Olejarnik and Maria Argiri. Several members from IEA s Office of the Chief Economist also provided essential input. As this report is a Working Paper, comments and questions are welcome and should be directed to

3 Energy and CO 2 emissions scenarios of Poland OECD/IEA 2010d Executive summary Using the latest available energy and economic data, this report provides two scenarios for energy and CO 2 emissions in Poland s energy sector up to In the Reference Scenario, which assumes a continuation of current policies and an average annual GDP growth of 3.5%, Poland s primary energy demand reaches close to 115 Mtoe by 2030 or around one-fifth higher than in Compared to an average annual growth of 1.1% in the period , over the next 22 years Poland s energy demand is projected to grow by 0.7% each year. The projected growth in energy demand is driven by the transport sector (10 Mtoe) and power generation (8 Mtoe). Several key shifts occur in Poland s energy mix in the Reference Scenario. Importantly, both from an energy security and environmental perspective, the dominance of fossil fuels declines by ten percentage points to reach a share of 85% by This decline results from a growth in renewable energy, mainly wind and biomass, whose share nearly doubles by 2030 to reach 12%. Nuclear power is projected to be introduced towards the end of the period and accounts for 3% of the fuel mix in The dominance of coal in Poland s energy mix will weaken substantially, declining to 38% in 2030, from 56% in Poland s energy intensity has fallen by more than half since 1990, as the country transformed itself by scrapping and a modernising capital stock in the industry, buildings and power generation sectors, but significant potential for efficiency gains still remains. Today, the energy intensity of the Polish economy is around double that of the European Union average, but with a projected average annual decline of 2.7%, in 2030 Poland s energy intensity in the Reference Scenario remains only 5% higher than current level of the European Union. This improvement results in a halving of Poland s CO 2 intensity by 2030, with total CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion reaching 302 Mt or 2% higher than in With rising incomes and improvements in road infrastructure, Poland s vehicle fleet grows by more than 50% by 2030, highlighting the crucial importance of the transport sector when formulating energy policy. Fuelled largely by a surge in Poland s passenger light-duty vehicle ownership rate from just under 200 vehicles per thousand people in 2003 to above 400 in 2009, the transport sector accounted for nearly three-fourths of the increase in total final energy consumption over the last seven years. In 2008, for the first time, demand from the transportation sector exceeded that of industry and became the second most important sector in total final consumption after buildings. In the Reference Scenario, the transport sector accounts for more than 55% of the increase in final energy consumption between 2008 and Over three-fourths of the increase comes from oil consumption and another 20% from biofuels. Road oil demand is projected to grow on average by 2% per annum in the Reference Scenario, contributing the most to a rise in Poland s total oil demand from 25 Mtoe in 2008 to 31 Mtoe in New EU energy policies concerning fuel efficiency standards and biofuels, changes in the evolution of the composition of Poland s vehicle fleet, improved public transportation, as well as technological breakthroughs, can all change the projected transport energy demand in the Reference Scenario and consequently Poland s oil security. Efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions in the power sector, in compliance with European Union directives, are leading to significant changes in Poland s electricity mix, with the share of coal dropping substantially between now and In the Reference Scenario, Poland s electricity Page 3

4 Energy and CO 2 emissions scenarios of Poland OECD/IEA 2010 Page 4 generation grows by 1.7% on average per annum over the projection period to reach 225 TWh by 2030 a 45% increase compared with Electricity generation from coal increases moderately, from 143 TWh in 2008 to 150 TWh in 2030 and its share drops from 93% to 67%. There are significant opportunities to modernise the power generation fleet in Poland, as more than three-fourths of coal capacity is between 20 to 50 years old and a quarter of it is older than 40 years, emphasising the requirement for substantial new investment in the short and medium term. Despite improved generation efficiencies, these new investments depending on the choice of fuel can lock-in CO 2 emissions for at least a generation and scrapping them before the end of their lifetime is usually costly. Gas-fired generation is projected to rise nearly six fold by 2030, largely substituting for coal. Securing needed supply of gas, whether through pipeline and LNG imports and/or domestic conventional and unconventional production, will be crucial. Over 45% of the increase in electricity generation between 2008 and 2030 is projected to come from renewables, notably wind power and biomass. The share of renewables in total electricity generation increases from 4% in 2008 to 17% by 2020 and stays at this level up to 2030, based on incentives provided by the government. This increase is part of Poland s target, as defined in the European Union s renewables directive, to achieve 15% of renewables in the energy mix by Nuclear power makes inroads into Poland s electricity mix contributing to efforts to enhance security of supply and to achieve the transition to low-carbon electricity generation. Following a number of steps to shape a policy framework for nuclear power, the Polish government published a roadmap in August 2009, with the aim of commissioning a first plant in In the Reference Scenario nuclear power capacity reaches 1.6 GW in 2030, accounting for 5% of total electricity generation. The power sector could face challenges in raising the substantial investment needed to meet rising demand and to replace ageing power plants. In the Reference Scenario, total investment in the power sector over the period amounts to EUR195 billion (PLN688 billion) or 1.3% of GDP on an annual basis. Over two-thirds of this amount or EUR134 billion (PLN471 billion) is needed to build 92 GW of new capacity. The remaining is needed in distribution and transmission. Power sector investment needs are the highest in the period , when a total of EUR126 billion (PLN445 billion) is required. This is due to more replacement capacity being needed during this period, along with an increase in more capital-intensive nuclear and renewables-based capacity. The recent discovery of significant unconventional gas deposits in Poland could prove a game changer, both for Poland and possibly Europe, by helping to satisfy rising demand, reducing import dependency and slowing the growth in CO 2 emissions by encouraging fuel switching from coal to gas. Poland s unconventional gas resources are estimated to range from 1.5 to 3 trillion cubic metres, however, it may take between five to ten years before a complete assessment of the commercialisation of these resources is available. Motivated by the success story of unconventional gas in the United States, several major and independent oil and gas firms are now exploring for the prospects of shale and tight gas in Poland but exploitation of these unconventional sources should not be taken for granted. Barriers and obstacles that will first need to be overcome include the geological characteristics of the resources yet to be appraised, limitations on physical access to the resource base, the ability to comply with environmental and fiscal regulations, access to water and the proximity to existing pipeline infrastructure. This report also includes a climate-policy scenario corresponding to a global long-term stabilisation of greenhouse-gas concentration at 450 parts per million of CO 2 equivalent. The

5 Energy and CO 2 emissions scenarios of Poland OECD/IEA 2010d 450 Policy Scenario corresponds to an increase in global temperature of around 2 C. This will require innovative policies, an appropriate regulatory framework, the rapid development of a global carbon market and increased investment in energy research, development and demonstration. Poland s total primary energy demand in 2030 in the 450 Scenario is 9% lower than in the Reference Scenario at 104 Mtoe. In contrast to oil, natural gas and particularly coal, demand for nuclear power and renewables grow significantly above the levels achieved in the Reference Scenario. Total CO 2 emissions in the 450 Scenario fall from 296 Mt in 2008 to 196 Mt by Poland s CO 2 emission savings in this report are equal to 8.5% of the 1.2 Gt of additional abatement in the European Union, estimated in the IEA s World Energy Outlook End-use efficiency is the largest contributor, representing 38% (or 40 Mt) of the savings by Faster deployment of renewables is the second largest contributing measure, providing 25% (or 26 Mt) of the reduction, followed by the introduction of carbon capture and storage towards the end of the projection period, and the greater use of nuclear power. With policy makers around the world turning to electrification of the transport sector as a means of strengthening climate policy, improving energy security and providing new avenues of economic growth, the importance of strengthening of transmission and distribution networks along with decarbonising the power sector will grow. For example, CO 2 emissions per kilometre from an electric vehicle in the 450 Scenario are more than half the level if the electricity was generated using the fuel mix from the Reference Scenario. The profound shifts in energy demand and supply in the 450 Scenario require cumulative additional investment of EUR113 billion (PLN397 billion) in the period , primarily in the transport and power sectors. Importantly, two-thirds of this investment is needed the period , when the majority of abatement in CO 2 occurs. By 2030, annual incremental investment reaches 1.2% of projected GDP or EUR8.9 billion (PLN31.5 billion). The cost of the additional investments is offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits. Importantly, energy bills for industry, buildings and transport are EUR132 billion (PLN464 billion) lower over the projection period relative to the Reference Scenario, implying a significant reduction in spending on oil and gas imports. Ensuring strong economic growth in Poland in the decades ahead will undoubtedly require crucial decisions and investments in the energy sector that take account of the various constraints that are often interconnected. The Polish economy posted positive growth during the global financial and economic crisis and the underlying trends in this report assume that Poland s growth is expected to remain substantially higher than the European Union average over the projection period. In response to growing concerns over energy security and climate change, the Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 and the future National Programme for Reductions of Emissions aim at putting Poland on a sustainable energy path by promoting energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear and other advanced low-carbon technologies. This report provides a quantitative framework for the strategic decisions that need to be made in the Polish energy sector, in the context of existing and planned European energy and climate regulations and other likely developments in global energy markets. Page 5

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Mark Finley 14th February 216 Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD 1965 2 235 GDP 2

More information

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 24 Other Non-OECD Asia 18 OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $211 PPP, 213-35 9 Population Income per

More information

World Energy Outlook 2013

World Energy Outlook 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013 Paweł Olejarnik IEA Energy Analyst Warszawa, 15 Listopada 2013 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Spencer Dale, group chief economist Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop

More information

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum

More information

Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies

Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies Didier Houssin Director, Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency Colloque L Energie : enjeux socio-économiques

More information

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW Energy remains very high on the policy agenda in Poland. The government has made commendable efforts over the last years to comply

More information

Energy Technology Perspectives

Energy Technology Perspectives ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2 0 0 6 Energy Technology Perspectives Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 NIES Workshop Developing Visions for a Low Carbon Society through Sustainable

More information

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the

More information

Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017

Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017 Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017 March 2018 Key findings Energy: Global energy demand increased by 2.1% in 2017, compared with 0.9% the previous year and 0.9% on average over the previous five years.

More information

Energy Perspectives 2016 Long-term macro and market outlook

Energy Perspectives 2016 Long-term macro and market outlook Energy Perspectives 216 Long-term macro and market outlook Columbia University, 16 November 216 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist 2 Energy Perspectives 216 Macro and market outlook

More information

Special Report WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Special Report WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Special Report WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate

More information

Analyses market and policy trends for electricity, heat and transport Investigates the strategic drivers for RE deployment Benchmarks the impact and c

Analyses market and policy trends for electricity, heat and transport Investigates the strategic drivers for RE deployment Benchmarks the impact and c Paolo Frankl Head Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) Energy Seminar Tokyo, 7 March 2012 OECD/IEA 2011 Analyses market and policy trends for

More information

The Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050

The Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050 MEMO/11/914 Brussels, 15 December 2011 The Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050 Why is there a need for the Roadmap 2050? The EU has set itself the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80%-95% below

More information

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights William C. Ramsay Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency Singapore, 9 November 2007 Approach Co-operation with China s NDRC & ERI, India

More information

GE OIL & GAS ANNUAL MEETING 2016 Florence, Italy, 1-2 February

GE OIL & GAS ANNUAL MEETING 2016 Florence, Italy, 1-2 February Navigating energy transition Keisuke Sadamori Director for Energy Markets and Security IEA GE OIL & GAS ANNUAL MEETING 2016 Florence, Italy, 1-2 February 2016 General Electric Company - All rights reserved

More information

AmCham EU Position on Shale Gas Development in the EU

AmCham EU Position on Shale Gas Development in the EU AmCham EU Position on Shale Gas Development in the EU Page 1 of 5 4 January 2013 AmCham EU Position on Shale Gas Development in the EU Shale gas could play an important role in the EU energy mix and policymakers

More information

CONTENTS PART A TABLE OF GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES

CONTENTS PART A TABLE OF GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A PART B GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS SPECIAL FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS PART C CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 ENERGY, EMISSIONS AND UNIVERSAL ACCESS 3 OUTLOOK

More information

OECD/IEA London, 14 November 2017

OECD/IEA London, 14 November 2017 London, 14 November 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook: The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader

More information

Role of clean energy in the context of Paris Agreement

Role of clean energy in the context of Paris Agreement Role of clean energy in the context of Paris Agreement Peter Janoska, Energy Analyst, IEA COP 23, Bonn, 15 November 2017 IEA The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions

More information

with Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director

with Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director Interview Edited by Chiara Martini and Alessandro Federici (ENEA) with Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director As we have seen in submissions to COP21, energy efficiency is at the top of the agenda for a large

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case

Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case Annual Energy Outlook 21 Reference Case The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 29 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 29 1 How

More information

World Energy Investment 2017

World Energy Investment 2017 World Energy Investment 2017 Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director 11 July 2017 IEA OECD/IEA 2017 Global energy investment fell 12% in 2016, a second consecutive year of decline Global energy investment 2016

More information

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND ROADMAP STUDY. Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND ROADMAP STUDY. Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND ROADMAP STUDY Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION

More information

Climate change and the global energy transition

Climate change and the global energy transition Climate change and the global energy transition Dave Turk Acting Director Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks Global emissions stagnate, but there are regional variations Change in annual

More information

Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division

Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York NY, October 15, 2015 Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division Prologue Changing oil & gas prices 25 140 20 120 100 15

More information

Renewables for Africa and for the World

Renewables for Africa and for the World RENEWABLE ENERGY Renewables for Africa and for the World Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency SAIREC, Cape Town, 5 October 2015 Profound changes underway in energy markets

More information

Mexico Energy efficiency report

Mexico Energy efficiency report Mexico Energy efficiency report Objective: energy savings target of 2% for 12 and 18% for 30 Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=100)¹ 101-0.2% -- CO2 intensity (EU=100) 111 - -0.2% -- CO 2 emissions

More information

WIND POWER TARGETS FOR EUROPE: 75,000 MW by 2010

WIND POWER TARGETS FOR EUROPE: 75,000 MW by 2010 About EWEA EWEA is the voice of the wind industry actively promoting the utilisation of wind power in Europe and worldwide. EWEA members from over 4 countries include 2 companies, organisations, and research

More information

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Bargo Adibhatla May 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based

More information

Mexico Energy efficiency report

Mexico Energy efficiency report Mexico Energy efficiency report Objective: 18% energy savings target for 3 Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 17 -.3% -- CO 2 intensity (EU=1) 114 - -.2% -- CO 2 emissions per capita (in tco2/cap)

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition The Energy Outlook considers a base case, outlining the 'most likely' path for global energy markets over the

More information

RENEWABLE ENERGY: A KEY CLIMATE SOLUTION

RENEWABLE ENERGY: A KEY CLIMATE SOLUTION RENEWABLE ENERGY: A KEY CLIMATE SOLUTION Photograph: Shutterstock Energy decarbonisation is vital to keep the rise in global temperatures well below 2 C, in line with the aims of the Paris Agreement. This

More information

AmCham EU position on Shale Gas Development in the EU

AmCham EU position on Shale Gas Development in the EU AmCham EU position on Shale Gas Development in the EU Page 1 of 6 7 February 2014 AmCham EU position on Shale Gas Development in the EU Background A number of EU Member States are exploring the potential

More information

IEA Roadmap Workshop Sustainable Biomass Supply for Bioenergy and Biofuels September 2010

IEA Roadmap Workshop Sustainable Biomass Supply for Bioenergy and Biofuels September 2010 IEA Roadmap Workshop Sustainable Biomass Supply for Bioenergy and Biofuels 15-16 September 2010 Adam Brown Anselm Eisentraut Renewable Energy Division We need a global 50% CO 2 cut by 2050 Gt CO2 60 55

More information

Energy transitions and climate policy

Energy transitions and climate policy Energy transitions and climate policy The role of innovation and renewable energy technology Dolf Gielen Director IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre TU Delft Energy Initiative 2 November, 2017 1 PART

More information

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report Michael Waldron Senior Energy Market Analyst Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report Michael Waldron Senior Energy Market Analyst Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 13 Michael Waldron Senior Energy Market Analyst Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 13 Methodology and Scope OECD/IEA 13 Analysis of

More information

The challenges of a changing energy landscape

The challenges of a changing energy landscape The challenges of a changing energy landscape October 26 th 2016 Maria Pedroso Ferreira EDP Energy Planning maria.pedrosoferreira@edp.pt Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape 2 Challenges and opportunities

More information

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since industrialisation, the United Kingdom has relied heavily on fossil fuels for the bulk of its energy supply. This is by and large still

More information

Climate change and market based mechanisms

Climate change and market based mechanisms Climate Change Catastrophe: "Talk and Art" Event at Scandinavia House, New York, 10 June 2014 Climate change and market based mechanisms 1 Jouni Keronen, PhD, MBA The presentation was done as a private

More information

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan through FY2017

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan through FY2017 IEEJ December 216. All Rights Reserved. 22 December 216 The 425th Forum on Research Work Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan through FY217 Appropriate domestic energy policy measures are required to pursue

More information

Role of bioenergy and transport biofuels in energy and climate scenarios

Role of bioenergy and transport biofuels in energy and climate scenarios Role of bioenergy and transport biofuels in energy and climate scenarios Dr. Paolo Frankl Head, Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Biofuture Platform All-Member Meeting, IRENA Headquarters

More information

Accelerating the Global Energy Transition. Dolf Gielen and Luis Janeiro IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre

Accelerating the Global Energy Transition. Dolf Gielen and Luis Janeiro IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre Accelerating the Global Energy Transition Dolf Gielen and Luis Janeiro IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre Bonn University/IRENA lecture series - Renewable Future 12 October, 2017 1 Renewable Future

More information

Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management. John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs

Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management. John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs Efficiency has already been the largest recent source of incremental

More information

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNEXES INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

More information

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. In support of the G8 Plan of Action TOWARD A CLEAN, CLEVER & COMPETITIVE ENERGY FUTURE

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. In support of the G8 Plan of Action TOWARD A CLEAN, CLEVER & COMPETITIVE ENERGY FUTURE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY In support of the G8 Plan of Action TOWARD A CLEAN, CLEVER & COMPETITIVE ENERGY FUTURE 2007 REPORT TO THE G8 SUMMIT in Heiligendamm, Germany The International Energy Agency,

More information

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk United States Association for Energy Economics February 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including

More information

Tin Zaw Myint Energy Planning Department (EPD), Ministry of Energy (MOE), Myanmar.

Tin Zaw Myint Energy Planning Department (EPD), Ministry of Energy (MOE), Myanmar. Chapter 12 Myanmar Country Report Tin Zaw Myint Energy Planning Department (EPD), Ministry of Energy (MOE), Myanmar. Nay Aung Energy Planning Department (EPD), Ministry of Energy (MOE), Myanmar. June 2013

More information

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation Fuels Used in Electricity Generation for Energy and Climate Change Research Seminar May 17 th, 2012 Washington, DC by, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis Energy Information Administration

More information

Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability

Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability INTERNATIONAL AGENCY Transport, Energy and CO2: François Cuenot, IEA Expert Group Meeting on Transport for Sustainable Development, 27 August 2009 Index Transport Sector in the big picture Oil demand,

More information

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011 1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Email: acordesman@gmail.com Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy

More information

Assessment of Air Pollution and GHG Mitigation Strategies in Malaysia using the GAINS Model

Assessment of Air Pollution and GHG Mitigation Strategies in Malaysia using the GAINS Model Assessment of Air Pollution and GHG Mitigation Strategies in Malaysia using the GAINS Model K Maragatham 1, P Rafaj 2 1 Malaysia Nuclear Agency, Kajang, Malaysia 2 International Institute for Applied Systems

More information

RESIDENTIAL ENERGY Roadmap

RESIDENTIAL ENERGY Roadmap RESIDENTIAL ENERGY Roadmap 1. 2. Introduction to the residential roadmap to 25 Our homes account for more than a quarter of Irish energy-related carbon emissions. How we use energy in our dwelling is for

More information

Current Trends andfuture Bioenergy Trends

Current Trends andfuture Bioenergy Trends Current Trends andfuture Bioenergy Trends The State and Future of Bioenergy Tokyo International forum 17 November 2011 Adam Brown Senior Energy Analyst IEA, Paris Topics Current Trends in Biomass for Energy

More information

Europe s Coming Challenges in Meeting Decarbonisation Objectives

Europe s Coming Challenges in Meeting Decarbonisation Objectives Europe s Coming Challenges in Meeting Decarbonisation Objectives Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D. EPRI-IEA Workshop on Challenges in Electric Sector Decarbonisation 28 September 215, Paris EU electric sector

More information

North American Perspective on the Grand Transition

North American Perspective on the Grand Transition North American Perspective on the Grand Transition North America Regional Forum Ged Davis 12 September 2017 Mexico City World Energy Scenario Workshops Global Scenario Study Group Workshops (London: Mar

More information

2018 BP Energy Outlook

2018 BP Energy Outlook BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. The Outlook considers a number

More information

Indonesia energy efficiency report

Indonesia energy efficiency report Indonesia energy efficiency report Latest update: March 211 Objectives: - slower energy consumption growth than GDP growth by 22 - industrial energy intensity reduction target of about 1% per year until

More information

An independent assessment of the Clean Growth Strategy

An independent assessment of the Clean Growth Strategy An independent assessment of the Clean Growth Strategy Technical annex Industry Under the Climate Change Act, the government is required to publish a set of policies and proposals that will enable the

More information

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Energy Security in a Dangerous World

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Energy Security in a Dangerous World EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Energy Security in a Dangerous World World Energy Outlook 2004 paints a sobering picture of how the global energy system is likely to evolve from now to 2030. If governments stick with

More information

France Energy efficiency report

France Energy efficiency report France Energy efficiency report Objectives: o 139 TWh of end-user energy savings in 216 o 345 TWh of lifetime energy savings obligations for energy distributors over -213 Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity

More information

Please note that all IEA data is subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEA s website:

Please note that all IEA data is subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEA s website: Excerpt from: 2 - EXCERPT FROM RENEWABLES INFORMATION (2015 edition) The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Renewables Information (2015 edition). Please note that we strongly advise

More information

EU Climate Change & Energy Policy and Nuclear Fission Research

EU Climate Change & Energy Policy and Nuclear Fission Research EU Climate Change & Energy Policy and Nuclear Fission Research NUCLEAR 2015, Pitesti, Romania, May 2015 Research and Innovation Christophe Davies Project Officer European Commission DG Research and Innovation

More information

EIA s Energy Outlook Through 2035

EIA s Energy Outlook Through 2035 EIA s Energy Outlook Through 235 ReThink Montgomery Speaker Series Energy March 23, 21 Silver Spring, Maryland A. Michael Schaal, Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2018: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify

BP Energy Outlook 2018: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify 20 February 2018 BP Energy Outlook 2018: Energy demand grows as fuel mix continues to diversify The 2018 edition of BP s Energy Outlook is published today and considers the forces shaping the global energy

More information

Belgium Energy efficiency report

Belgium Energy efficiency report Belgium Energy efficiency report Objectives: 27.5 TWh of end-user energy savings in 216, including 2.8 TWh in industry Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 136 -- -1.4% - CO 2 intensity (EU=1)

More information

Tomorrow s Energy Scenarios 2017 Summary Booklet

Tomorrow s Energy Scenarios 2017 Summary Booklet Tomorrow s Energy Scenarios 2017 Summary Booklet Planning our Energy Future EirGrid Tomorrow s Energy Scenarios Summary Booklet Planning our Energy Future Page 1 Introducing scenario planning At EirGrid,

More information

WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS PART VI SCENARIOS AND TARGETS

WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS PART VI SCENARIOS AND TARGETS WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS PART VI SCENARIOS AND TARGETS Acknowledgements Part VI was compiled by Arthouros Zervos of the National Technical University of Athens, Greece (www. ntua.gr), and Christian Kjaer

More information

The Outlook to 2050 and the Role of Energy Technology

The Outlook to 2050 and the Role of Energy Technology 25 SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS This publication is a response to the Group of Eight (G8) leaders at their Gleneagles Summit in July 2005, and to the International Energy Agency's Energy Ministers who

More information

INDIA S ENERGY BASKET ANALYSIS: Dr. DC Patra Bharat Petroleum

INDIA S ENERGY BASKET ANALYSIS: Dr. DC Patra Bharat Petroleum INDIA S ENERGY BASKET ANALYSIS: TAKING INTO ACCOUNT TRANSITION FACTORING COP -21 Dr. DC Patra Bharat Petroleum Linear What will we see in the presentation? Disruptive Sustainable Indian Energy Scene Historical

More information

Gas security and emergency preparedness

Gas security and emergency preparedness Gas security and emergency preparedness Didier Houssin Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology G20 Energy Sustainability Working Group Melbourne, 11 February 2014 OECD/IEA 2012 2014 Gas is seeing

More information

The Future Role of Gas

The Future Role of Gas The Future Role of Gas GECF Global Gas Outlook 24 Insights Presentation for the 3rd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks Dmitry Sokolov Head of Energy Economics and Forecasting Department

More information

Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy Future?

Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy Future? Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy Future? Dr. Henri PAILLERE Senior Nuclear Analyst, Nuclear Development Division henri.paillere@oecd.org NC2I Conference, Brussels, 14-15 September 2015

More information

CLOSING THE CARBON GAP WWF S RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UK S EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLAN

CLOSING THE CARBON GAP WWF S RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UK S EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLAN CLOSING THE CARBON GAP: WWF S RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UK S EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLAN 13 CLOSING THE CARBON GAP WWF S RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UK S EMISSIONS REDUCTION PLAN CLOSING THE CARBON GAP: WWF S RECOMMENDATIONS

More information

Chapter 7. Indonesia Country Report. September 2016

Chapter 7. Indonesia Country Report. September 2016 Chapter 7 Indonesia Country Report September 2016 This chapter should be cited as Malik, C. (2016), Indonesia Country Report in Kimura, S. and P. Han (eds.) in Energy Outlook and Energy Saving Potential

More information

Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth

Overview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth Key Energy Issues to 225 The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 25 (AEO25), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could

More information

Chinese Energy Sector s Role in Low Carbon Transition

Chinese Energy Sector s Role in Low Carbon Transition Side-event Chinese Energy Sector s Role in Low Carbon Transition Paul SIMONS Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency Marrakech China Pavillon, 15 November 2016 The IEA works around the world

More information

The IEA outlook for gas. Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets

The IEA outlook for gas. Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets The IEA outlook for gas Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets For gas the Asian century is just starting 3 000 Mtoe Primary energy consumption 2 500 coal gas 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 - Asia Europe

More information

Energy policy at the crossroads. Finding the road to a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient Europe

Energy policy at the crossroads. Finding the road to a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient Europe Energy policy at the crossroads Finding the road to a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient Europe The European chemical industry is a primary process industry, comprising some 29,000 companies,

More information

Renewables London 04 October 2017

Renewables London 04 October 2017 Renewables 2017 London 04 October 2017 Context Policy support & technology progress continue to drive robust growth in renewables Solar PV broke new records in 2016, led by China Solar PV grew faster than

More information

Emissions scenarios for international shipping from an energy technology perspective. Renske Schuitmaker Paris, 20 November 2017

Emissions scenarios for international shipping from an energy technology perspective. Renske Schuitmaker Paris, 20 November 2017 Emissions scenarios for international shipping from an energy technology perspective Renske Schuitmaker Paris, 20 November 2017 International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Mobility Model The IEA is an autonomous

More information

IEA Flagship Publication, Energy Technology Perspectives

IEA Flagship Publication, Energy Technology Perspectives OECD/IEA - OECD/NEA IEA Flagship Publication, Energy Technology Perspectives 60 Sectors 60 Technologies 50 50 40 40 Gt CO2 30 20 10 0 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Power generation 41% Industry 19% Transport

More information

Belgium Energy efficiency report

Belgium Energy efficiency report Belgium Energy efficiency report Objectives: 27.5 TWh of end-user energy savings in 216 12% share of renewables for electricity suppliers in 212 Overview - (% / year) Primary intensity (EU=) 1 132 - -1.8%

More information

Sectoral Approaches in Electricity

Sectoral Approaches in Electricity INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Delivering a broader carbon market after Copenhagen Richard Baron Head of climate change unit, IEA Objective: delivering CO 2 mitigation in power generation globally Identifying

More information

Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 2017

Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 2017 Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 217 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc bp.com/statisticalreview bp.com/energyoutlook #Bpstats US new-well oil production per rig hasn

More information

European and Global Prospects of Carbon Capture and Storage Hot Topic Hour McIlvaine Company August 29, 2013

European and Global Prospects of Carbon Capture and Storage Hot Topic Hour McIlvaine Company August 29, 2013 European and Global Prospects of Carbon Capture and Storage Hot Topic Hour McIlvaine Company August 29, 2013 Jeffrey H. Michel, MSc. Hamburg, Germany Fossil fuel usage, particularly of coal, is altering

More information

Shale Gas. A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam. Richard G. Newell, Administrator

Shale Gas. A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam. Richard G. Newell, Administrator Shale Gas A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets? Flame European Gas Conference March 2, 2010, Amsterdam Richard G. Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, March SAIS, December 2, 2010 14, 2009 1

More information

Annual Energy Outlook 2018

Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Annual Energy Outlook 218 Columbia University, Center on Global Energy Policy February 13, 218 New York, NY John J. Conti, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information

More information

Welcome. State of Green. Polish delegation. September 23, 2014

Welcome. State of Green. Polish delegation. September 23, 2014 Welcome State of Green Polish delegation September 23, 2014 About State of Green / House of Green What is State of Green? State of Green is a public-private partnership founded by: The Danish Government

More information

ESRI Forum Current State and Prospects of GHG reduction targets. The EU s energy and climate strategy

ESRI Forum Current State and Prospects of GHG reduction targets. The EU s energy and climate strategy ESRI Forum Current State and Prospects of GHG reduction targets The EU s energy and climate strategy Christian Egenhofer Senior Research Fellow Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels Roppongi

More information

THE EU CAN INCREASE ITS CLIMATE TARGETS TO BE IN LINE WITH A GLOBAL 1.5 C TARGET

THE EU CAN INCREASE ITS CLIMATE TARGETS TO BE IN LINE WITH A GLOBAL 1.5 C TARGET THE EU CAN INCREASE ITS CLIMATE TARGETS TO BE IN LINE WITH A GLOBAL 1.5 C TARGET THE KEY IS TO APPLY PROVEN BEST PRACTICE POLICIES FROM MEMBER STATES ACROSS THE EU SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS, APRIL 2018

More information

Scenarios and R&D priorities in the 7th Framework Programme

Scenarios and R&D priorities in the 7th Framework Programme Scenarios and R&D priorities in the 7th Framework Programme Angel Perez Sainz European Commission Research DG- Energy Tel: +32.2.296.19.56. Email: Angel.Perez-Sainz@ec.europa.eu Slide n 1 / IEA Expert

More information

OME Context Present situation and prospects Recommendations

OME Context Present situation and prospects Recommendations RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION: Situation and prospects Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, RE&SD OME Eng. Henri BOYE, MEDAD Workshop Data Gathering on Renewable Energies for the New Member States

More information

World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics

World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics World Energy Outlook 2035: A focus on LNG supply and demand dynamics M.H. Siddiqui, Prescience, USA 1 Agenda The Energy Outlook in 2035 involving major landscape changes in supply, demand, fossil fuels,

More information

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016 Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016 Clean Energy Investment and Trends IETA Pavilion COP22, Marrakech November 10, 2016 Liwayway Adkins Environment and Climate Change Unit International Energy

More information

Brazil Energy efficiency report

Brazil Energy efficiency report Brazil Energy efficiency report Objective: 16 TWh of electricity savings by 23 Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 114 - -.1% -- CO 2 intensity (EU=1) 79 ++ -.8% -- CO 2 emissions per capita

More information

HyWays The European Hydrogen Roadmap

HyWays The European Hydrogen Roadmap HyWays The European Hydrogen Roadmap Action Plan Policy Measures for the Introduction of Hydrogen Energy in Europe 1 Summary The HyWays Roadmap has outlined that as a result of the introduction of hydrogen

More information

Climate change and EU policy -

Climate change and EU policy - Climate change and EU policy - why has so little been achieved? Bruegel Energy and Climate Exchange October 4 th 2012 Professor Dieter Helm Author of The Carbon Crunch: How we are getting climate change

More information