The Great Deflation in Oil: Impact on the Polyester Chain
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1 Information Analytics Expertise The Great Deflation in Oil: Impact on the Polyester Chain Indian Polyester June, Mumbai Ashish Pujari, Senior Director (Aromatics & Fibers) Ashish.Pujari@ihs.com / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2 Contents Why have Crude Oil prices fallen? Oil Price Outlook Effect on Economic Forecasts Polyester Demand 2
3 Recap of 214 and Oil Price Drop Non-OPEC Supply Growth outstripped global demand in 214 Developed economies have entered a stage of structural declines in their oil usage Emerging economies not growing with the gusto of last decade nor is their growth as closely correlated to oil demand as it once was. Structural shifts in Chinese demand 214 crude demand growth was approximately 6 mb/d Total global supply grew by 2. MMb/d US supply growth alone was ~1.2 MMb/d alone more than total demand growth US crude production at record rates, reaching 9+ million barrels/day by end 214 3
4 US Crude Production Grew at Record Rates INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI US Crude Production Growth Thousand Barrels per Day 1,4 1,2 1, Total US Crude Production Thousand Barrels per Day 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,
5 Geopolitical Factors Kept ~3 MMb/d Oil off the Market Which Held off Price Declines Until Mid-214 Global Crude Production Outages Thousand Barrels Per Day Nigeria -5 Iraq Through mid-214, oil off the market countered-balanced the rise in supply from North America. -1, Libya -1,5-2, Iran -2,5-3, Non-OPEC -3,5-4, Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Iraq Nigeria Libya Iran Non-OPEC Saudi Arabia Kuwait Source: IHS, EIA 215 IHS Libyan factions reached agreements which returned 5, b/d to the market quickly, causing the first downdraft in oil prices. Baghdad and Erbil reached agreement in early December 214 which will allow 4, b/d to flow from KRG in 215. Markets suddenly realized the structural market imbalance. 5
6 2 nd Tipping Point: Saudi Arabia Stepped Back from Being the Market Balancer to Guard Market Share OPEC dynamics: OPEC Crude Production vs Call on OPEC MMb/d Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Source: IHS Energy Crude Oil Markets service Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Brent $/bbl Call on OPEC OPEC output Q4 213 Q1 214 INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI OPEC s roll-over of production reflects a willingness to incur short-term pain to let market find the weak producers. Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 $/bbl $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 215 IHS 6
7 Contents Why have Crude Oil prices fallen? Oil Price Outlook Effect on Economic Forecasts Polyester Demand 7
8 China Growth Slowing Change from Preceding Year in Chinese Oil Demand Thousand barrels per day 1,2 12% 1, 9.% 1% % 8% 6% 4 4.1% 3.4% 4% 2 2% Product demand growth CAGR (Rt. Scale) % 8
9 US Crude Oil Supply Year-on-year increases but month-to-month declines this year Millions of Barrels per Day Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Includes US Gulf of Mexico Source: IHS Energy North America services Total US Crude Production Base Production Dec New wedge INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Dec New wedge Base Production Dec New wedge 9
10 Balancing Supply/Demand Over Three Years INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Annual Growth in World Liquids Demand and Liquids Supply 1
11 What Affects Price Track Over Coming Months? INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI U.S. tight oil production response most important Magnitude and rate of response to low price (down swing) Turnaround speed of recovery when prices increase (upswing) Company strategies growth vs value Saudi actions Build/draws of inventories and market response Landed/floating storage (inc. offshore Iran) Drilled uncompleted wells in US 11
12 Near Term Reality Crude Price remains low as oversupply remains INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Quarterly Average Price, Dollar Per Barrel Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 WTI Brent 12
13 Brent Price Outlook to 22 Upward price correction coming! Brent Price Tracks (Rivalry Scenario) Dollars Per Barrel New math of oil: The call on OPEC replaced by a more complicated calculus the call on American crude oil at least in this timeframe : Oil prices under pressure until excess oil supply is removed : Price recovery from strong demand and lagging supply Project deferrals in , particularly in deepwater, have pronounced impact on supply Brent Current Brent Constant Demand growth of 6 million B/D over four years Non-OPEC supply recovers More OPEC supply growth needed as well 13
14 Contents Why have Crude Oil prices fallen? Oil Price Outlook Effect on Economic Forecasts Polyester Demand 14
15 Nearly $7B Transfers From Net Petroleum Producers to Net Importers; Another $4B Migrates Downstream Petroleum Flows Net Money Transfer Barrels Per day (M) 15 Away from Producers $B Per Year $4, Demand Between Countries $3,5 $2, Net Trade $1,5 $5 -$5-5 -$1,5 Middle East CIS Africa South America N. America Asia Europe 15
16 Lower Crude Prices Not Passed to Consumers INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI China Oil Price Index SE Asia Retail fuel price (base = June 214) 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% 4 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Crude Basket Retail Diesel Retail Gasoline -5% Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Philippines gasoline Indonesia gasoline Spot gasoline 16
17 Global Demand Growth Improves by Only.2 MMbbl/d YOY in 215 Due to Low Price and Small Change in GDP Net improvement in demand growth from oil price drop in 215 Thousand barrels per day 25 INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI 2 15 Other Diesel North America 1 5 Gasoline Price Latin America Europe Asia Pacific -5 CIS Middle East -1 Global Products Price&GDP Impact Regions Source: IHS 215 IHS 17
18 A gradual acceleration in the global economy INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Global real GDP growth will gradually pick up from 2.7% this year to 3.3% in 216. Consumer spending and homebuilding lead a solid US acceleration. Recoveries in the Eurozone and Japan will gain momentum, aided by monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and pent-up demand. China s growth will slow in 215 and 216, restrained by imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets. Several emerging markets are in recession this year Russia, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil. Growth paths in emerging markets will depend on structural reforms that raise productivity and allocate capital more efficiently. 18
19 The Great Divergence Over the past four years, global real GDP growth has been remarkably stable, between 2.5% and 3.% The composition of growth has changed fundamentally, however, with a gradual acceleration among the advanced economies and a sharp deceleration in the emerging world Four trends have driven this divergence: Debt and deleveraging The plunge in prices of oil and other commodities Central banks moving on different paths The rise of the US dollar and the fall in other currencies 19
20 The global economy s growth remains subpar in 215 Real GDP and industrial production Percentage Change Real GDP Industrial production Source: IHS 215 IHS 2
21 Global real GDP growth will pick up in INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Real GDP Percentage Change World Advanced countries Emerging markets Source: IHS 215 IHS 21
22 Extended low-oil scenario leads to higher GDP growth GDP accelerates for most; 5% boost to base (globally) by 22 35% 25% Economic Growth to 22 India offsets Brazil and Russia declines 15% North America and Europe benefit appears to be the greatest 5% -5% Africa APAC BRICs Europe L. America M. East & N. Africa N. America World Baseline Scenario % increase 215 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 22
23 Market strength still critical economic and substitution demand impact varies by product Demand Growth vs. Operating Rate Industry utilization 9% 8% 7% Ethylene Propylene ECU Ammonia Px Benzene Ethylene s S/D implies marketpricing strength Weaker market conditions for other products - variable by region Generally oversupplied Pricing depends on marginal costs Methanol 6%.% 1.% 2.% 3.% Increase in Demand 215 IHS, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 23
24 Contents Why have Crude Oil prices fallen? Oil Price Outlook Effect on Economic Forecasts Polyester Demand 24
25 Fiber Demand Increases in line with GDP Fiber, Million Metric Tons 11 Total Natural and Man-Made Fibers Fibers Growth in line with GDP Growth 4 46, 51, 56, 61, 66, 71, 76, 81, 86, GDP (Billion 21 $) 25
26 Textile Spending Growing Faster than Demand Index 125 INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Apparent Consumption in Textile & Apparel World Fiber Demand 26
27 Cotton: Steep cut in Production required to Bring Markets back to Long Term Balance Cotton, Million Metric Tons INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI 95/96 98/99 1/2 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 16/17 19/2 Asia NAM MDE & AFR Europe SAM Production 27
28 We Overlooked the Growth In Viscose Fibers! INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Million Metric Tons Growth Rate 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% High costs and environmental reasons had slowed down viscose consumption for decades. Driven by new capacity in Asia, viscose production increased by 5% in past 5 years. This has eaten into a potential 2 million metric tons of incremental polyester demand! Viscose Production Growth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate % Important to track developments in Other Fibers & Consumer Choice 28
29 Textile Pipeline Inventory Plays an Important Role INDIAN POLYESTER 215 / 19 JUNE MUMBAI Governing Principle Demand Four Year Trend Growth, but slow Inventory Pressure Order Quantity Retailers cut order sizes Lead Time since 213 Textile production moving closer to ~ 11 months ~ 9 months demand centres Safety Stock Cost of inventory Less variety Steep increase in prices 1 14 Average 2% growth lost per annum due to lower inventory Inventory rebuild can boost demand by upto 1% in any year 29
30 Global Polyester Demand By Region Million Metric Tons % 12% 6% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% Americas Europe Africa & Middle East Asia (Exclude China) China Stable Volumes, but percentages decline!
31 PSF: Expect Growth inline with GDP Million Metric Tons 28 Operating Rate Rate (%) 9% % 11% 2% -2% 1% % 2% 3% 75% 6% 45% % 15% World Capacity World Demand World Op Rate % 31
32 Filament: Continues to be Fastest Growing Polyester Million Metric Tons 6 5 Operating Rate (%) 9% Operating Rate 8% 7% 4 6% 3 2 7% 16% 11% 9% 6% 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% 3% 1 2% 1% World Capacity World Demand World Op Rate % 32
33 PET Demand Growing at Stable Volumes Million Metric Tons Operating Operating Rate Rate (%) 9% 75% % 8.5% 6.1% 4.2% 4.6% 4.% 4.5% 4.5% 6% 45% 12 3% % World Capacity World Demand World Op Rate % 33
34 Recycling Comes under Threat as Raw Material Prices Decline Thousand RMB Per Metric Ton 18 Thousand RMB Per Metric Ton 4.5 Million Metric Tons 25 Percentage 5% % % % % Jan-9 Feb-1 Mar-11 Apr-12 May-13 Jun % Price Difference Recycled Virgin PET Consumption Bottle Collection Lower differential could affect recycle consumption and boost virgin demand Potential upside 2.5 million mt over the next few years 34
35 Who Has The Money? Asia Polyester for DTY Cash Chain Margins Dollars Per Metric Ton Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15May-16 Oct-16 DTY margins MEG margins PTA margins PX margins Total Margins 35
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