U.S. natural gas and LNG exports

Transcription

1 U.S. natural gas and LNG exports For Hudson Institute Washington DC April 6, 216 By Victoria Zaretskaya Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977 EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions Hudson Institute April 6, 216 Hudson Institute April 6, 216 2

3 The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY) Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' U.S. dry shale gas production Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 215 and represent EIA s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). Hudson Institute April 6, 216 3

4 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 213 Projections Shale gas and tight oil plays 1 Other lower 48 onshore Tight gas 3 5 Coalbed methane 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case Hudson Institute April 6, 216 4

5 U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year History Projections Consumption Production Net exports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Hudson Institute April 6, 216 5

6 Cumulative liquefaction capacity additions over the time period will increase global capacity by over 3% LNG liquefaction capacity additions by basin, percent global total 6 35% 5 3% % 2% 15% % 5% Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin New liquefaction capacity (cumulative) % of global total.2 % Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press. Note: Capacity additions in include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-up Hudson Institute April 6, 216 6

7 New liquefaction capacity located in Australia and the U.S. will account for 36% of global liquefaction capacity by 22 LNG liquefaction capacity additions by country, Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press. Note: Capacity additions in include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-up Hudson Institute April 6, 216 7

8 North American natural gas prices are low compared to prices in the rest of the world Select global natural gas and crude oil prices with average monthly LNG prices in Japan U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg data Hudson Institute April 6, 216 8

9 Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 213 dollars per million Btu 12 History 213 Projections 9 High Oil Price Reference 6 Low Oil Price 3 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Hudson Institute April 6, 216 9

10 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History Projections 213 Alaska LNG exports Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada -1 High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Hudson Institute April 6, 216 1

11 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Today in Energy Natural Gas Weekly Update Hudson Institute April 6, 216 Hudson Institute April 6,