Proposed Project. Integrated Water Resources Management Using Remote Sensing Data in Upper Indus Basin

Transcription

1 Proposed Project Integrated Water Resources Management Using Remote Sensing Data in Upper Indus Basin

2 Background Snowmelt contributes more than 6% of water resources of Upper Indus Basin Most of the moisture input, fresh water storage and supply of runoff in U.I.B. occur in mountain zones between meters above sea level (m.a.s.l). But hydrological and metrological stations are below 3 m Without knowledge of conditions above 3 m, and development of monitoring network, effective water resources management and forecasting system is severely hindered

3 Objectives Integrated river basin management using remote sensing data in high elevation areas of Pakistan Development of a system to monitor and forecast flows from snow and ice basins located in Upper Indus Basin Study of metrological-hydrological aspects of the Upper Indus Basin in relation to the development of water resources management and forecasting system (model + data base and network + communications), for river control works and water users (irrigation, power, water supply and flood warning)

4 Project Title: Organization Integrated Water Resources Management Using Remote Sensing Data in Upper Indus Basin Proposing Organization: Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Implementation Organization: Water Resources Research Institute Main Office: Islamabad, Pakistan Regional Site: Gilgit, Pakistan

5

6 Indus and Upper Indus Basin Upper Indus Basin

7 HINDU KUSH KARAKARM China U Afghanistan I B HIMALYAS Iran Pakistan India Nepal Indus Basin International Areas Country/Region Area (sq. km) China 92,981 India 67,34 Kashmir 179,486 Afghanistan Pakistan 529,135 Total Area 944,569 Area (%) to 8% of the UIB becomes snowcovered during most of winter season In UIB, seasonally snow covered areas are typically between 15 m and 5 m Snowline retreats to elevation about 45-5 m during July and August IB: Indus Basin UIB: Upper Indus Basin

8 Pilot Area: Gilgit Basin Gilgit Basin U I B UIB: Upper Indus Basin

9 Gilgit Basin 72 E 73 E 74 E 75 E Monthly runoff and precipitation comparison 72 E N 36 N DEM High : 7592 Low : N 76 E 37 N Precipitataion (mm), Runoff (mm) Precipitation Runoff Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 73 E 74 E 35 N 75 E 76 E Inter-station and seasonal precipitation variability Area(%) >6 m 4.1 >5 m 29.8 >4 m 66.8 >3 m 84.5 >2 m A(3895) 16 Gilgit basin area 262 km 2 B(3719) 14 C(245) Annual precipitation = 3 D(2156) mm 12 E(146) Annual runoff = 8 mm F(1372) 1 G(1251) 8 Two main tributaries, Gilgit and Hunza 6 Hunza River at Daniyor km 2 4 Gilgit River at Gilgit 1295 km 2 2 Monthly Precipitation (mm) Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

10 Phase-I (two years) Methodology Selection of pilot area Strengthen of existing metrological observation network To establish on-line metrological observational network for data transfer Data acquisition system

11 Phase-II (Two years) Phase-III (two years) Methodology Estimation of snowcover area Estimation of snowmelt Stream flow simulation and integrated water resources management Impact of climate change Using GOES outputs, prediction and forecasting of streamflow and water resources Expansion of the system to wider area

12 Expected Outcome Integrated water resources management (stream flow simulation and reservoir operation) Stream flow forecasting including flood forecasting Impact of climate change on snowcover, snow depth and streamflow

13 Results: Snowcover 1997 Snowcover on January 1, 1997 Snowcover on February 11, 1997 Snowcover High : 1 Snowcover High : 1 Low : Low : Snowcover on February 21, 1997 Snowcover on March 1, 1997 Snowcover High : 1 Snowcover High : 1 Low : Low :

14 Snowcover on April 11, 1997 Snowcover on May 21, 1997 Snowcover on June 1, 1997 Snowcover on July 1, 1997 Snowcover on August 21, 1997 Snowcover on November 21, 1997

15 Discharge Results: Gilgit River at Alam GBHM SRM Monthly runoff and precipitation comparison 25 Present-study Mar_98 Apr_98 May_98 Jun_98 Jul_98 Aug_98 Sep_ GBHM = Meteorological data based distributed hydrological model RDSRM = Remote sensing based distributed snowmelt runoff model Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Precipitataion (mm), Runoff (mm) Precipitation Observed Observed SRM GBHM Precipitation Runoff Mar_98 Apr_98 May_98 Jun_98 Jul_98 Aug_98 Sep_ Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mar_ Apr_ May_ Jun_ July_ Aug_ Sep_ Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed Precipitation Observed SRM GBHM Monthly Precipitation (mm) Discharge (m 3 /sec) Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Mar_98 Apr_98 May_98 Jun_98 Jul_98 Aug_98 Sep_ Inter-station and seasonal precipitation variability 2 A(3895) B(3719) C(245) D(2156) E(146) F(1372) G(1251) 2 Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Mar_ Apr_ May_ Jun_ July_ Aug_ Sep_ Mar_ Apr_ May_ Jun_ July_ Aug_ Sep_ Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

16 Afghanistan China LEGEND Glaciers Glacier with GLOF (Glacier Lake Outburst Flood) Peak India-China border Upper Indus river Pakistan India border India-Pakistan border China Border Gilgit Basin Kashmir (Disputed Territory) Upper Indus Basin India Tibet Glacial ice area = 22 km 2 35 destructive GLOF have been recorded over the past 15 years (Hewitt, 1982)

17 Shimshal river valley and its main Glaciers, Landsat Imagery (13/8/1998) Glacier Length (km) Width (km) Snout (m) Malangutti Khurdopin Khurdopin Virjerab Malangutti Yazgil Yazgil Yukshin Batura glacier in Hunza river basin as imaged on Landsat (13/8/1998) Batura Glacier Length (km) Width (km) Snout (m) Pasu Batura Ghulkin Baltoro (62 km long) glacier constitutes a surface of sq. km

18 Forcing data Data Set Precipitation, Air temperature Evaporation Solar radiation Discharge Global dataset DEM data from HYDRO1K NOAA/AVHRR for snowcover estimation Land use/cover (USGS) Soil data (FAO)

19 Topographical Data Satellite Data Meteorological Data Snowcover Model Snowcover area (%) Discharge Distributed Hydrological Model (GBHM) Daily/hourly hydrograph Coupling Snowmelt Model Snowmelt at each grid Snow Melt T Remote Sensing based Distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model (RDSRM) Snowmelt runoff

20 Energy Budget net Radiation Short- + Longwave sensible Heat latent Heat Heat Flux of Precipitation Q S Q L Q H Q E Q P Snow pack Q M Melting Temperature Change Q C Ground Q G Ground Heat Flux Q M = Q S + Q L + Q H + Q E + Q P + Q G

21 Q s Q L Q H Q E Q P Snowmelt & Snowmelt Runoff Energy and Mass Pathways Energy available for melt ENERGY INPUTS Snowpack Surface Atmosphere Atmosphere Internal Energy Storage (Negative Heat Storage) Snowpack Q M Snowmelt M Snowpack Water Storage Direct Surface Runoff Meltwater Ground Surface Q G Infiltration Unsaturated Soil Zone Soil-Water Storage Interflow Snowmelt Runoff Water Table Saturated Soil Zone Groundwater Storage Runoff from Saturated Areas Baseflow STREAMFLOW OUTPUT

22 Distributed Hydrological Model Grid-based Model for Large River Basin (Yang, 2) 网格 Basin Sub-basin Grid Hillslope GIS for River Basin DEM Catchment and River Network Sub-basins Soil Map Land cover map & LAI Land use map Hillslopes

23 Discharge Results: Discharge Results: Rain and snowmelt contribution to runoff RDSRM & observed runoff Snowmelt runoff contribution to total runoff Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation(mm) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Mar_98 Apr_98 May_98 Jun_98 Jul_98 Aug_98 Sep_ Discharge (m 3 /sec) Mar_ Apr_ May_ Jun_ July_ Aug_ Sep_ 2 2 Precipitation(mm) Snowmelt runoff (m 3 /sec) Snowmelt runoff percent to total runoff March April May J une J uly Aug S ep Precipitation Observed RDSRM March April May June July Aug Sep 2 1 Snowmelt Runoff (m 3 /sec) Snowmelt runoff fraction to total runoff Summer rain contributes only 17% to river discharge

24 Discharge results: Hunza Basin, tributary of Gilgit River Discharge (m 3 /sec) 1 Precipitation Observed RDSRM Precipitation (mm) March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Precipitation(mm) March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Discharge (m 3 /sec) Precipitation Observed RDSRM Precipitation(mm) March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov 1 RDSRM = Remote sensing based distributed snowmelt runoff model