3/10/2010. Kristin McCully 10 & 15 March CH 4, N 2 0, CFCs, etc. Thermal expansion of water Melting of ice. IPCC 2007 Figure TS-1

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1 Lecture 16: Global Change Kristin McCully 10 & 15 March 2010 Major Global Changes Global Changes CH 4, N 2 0, CFCs, etc. Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Change Thermal expansion of water Melting of ice IPCC 2007 Figure TS-1 1

2 Observed Rise in Greenhouse Gases Observed Temperature & Sea Level Rise IPCC 2007 Figure SPM-3 IPCC 2007 Figure SPM-1 Geographic Distribution of Sea Level Rise Predicted Atmospheric CO 2 Increase IPCC (2007) 2

3 Predicted Global Warming IPCC 2007 Figure SPM-5 IPCC (2007) & Munday et al. (2008) Atmospheric CO 2 Observed & Predicted Global Change Observed Preindustrial ( ) 280 ppmv Now (2005) 379 ppmv Predicted ppmv ppmv Air temperature C C C Tropical SST (Santer et al. 2006) C C C Sealevel cm cm Ocean ph units units Precipitation 25% Extreme Weather Ocean currents frequency and/or intensity of tropical storms, droughts, floods Unknown Direct Impacts of Rising CO 2 Ocean Acidification Mangroves Experiments support Greatest effect in low salinity Increases water efficiency Increases N efficiency Unlikely major ecological impact Seagrasses Inconclusive evidence May also increase production & biomass of algal competitors Algae Little studied Coccolithophorids (calcifying phytoplankton) Ridgwell, Zeebe(2005) 3

4 Ocean Acidification CO 2 in atmosphere Preind. CO x CO 2 By ppm Ocean Acidification Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Food Web Photosynthesis Respiration CO 2 (aq) H 2 CO 3 Carbonic Acid 8 16 μmol/kg Ω= [Ca 2+ ][CO 3 2- ]/K sp Ω= Degree of saturation of seawater for CaCO 3 Calcium Ca 2+ Bicarbonate Carbonate Calcification Dissolution CaCO 3 HCO 3- + H + CO H μmol/kg 177 μmol/kg TCO ph Ω-arag L14 4

5 3/10/2010 Effects of Ocean Acidification on Calcifiers Impacts on Chemoreception in Fish Interfere with formation of CaCO3 shells or skeletons of benthic or plankton calcifiers Larvae & embryos may be particularly vulnerable Community impacts Munday et al. (2009) PNAS Effects of Lowered ph on Organisms Physiology: Respiration rate Blood chemistry Growth rate Chemoreception Reproduction Joanie Kleypas UC Santa Cruz April 2009 control suitable habitat unsuitable unreliable suitable habitat clue habitat Experiment - Coccolithophorid Decalcification < modern CO2 modern CO2 > modern CO2 Food Supply Eggs or Larvae Langer et al. (2006) 5

6 Effects of Global Warming on Mangroves Species have different thermal optima & tolerance ranges Change timing of flowering & fruiting Increase productivity when temperature not above upper threshold Expand range to higher latitudes Fine (2007) Effects of Global Warming on Seagrasses Different species have different thermal optima & tolerance ranges Geographic range shifts Altered growth & reproduction Effects of Global Warming on Coral Reefs Not expected to expand latitudinal range of coral reefs significantly Frequency of bleaching Calcareous & fleshy benthic macroalgae Often low temperature thresholds (Diaz-Pulidoet al. 2008) Alter physiology, life history, reproductive timing, geographic range of invertebrates & fishes Coral bleaching community impacts 6

7 = Coral Reef Bleaching Combined Effects of Temp & ph By corals or other zooxanthellate organisms (soft corals, giant clams, sponges, etc.) In response to Sedimentation Sewage or nutrient runoff Pollution Cold or heat stress Light Anthony et al PNAS Mass Coral Reef Bleaching High temperature (size of anomaly & duration) + extenuates stress Bleaching white skeleton shows through tissue Coral recovers or dies If dies Rapid colonization by algae Bioerosion (Loya) bleaching event at Gulf of Eilat Completely bleached Acroporaformosaat Halfway Island, GBR, February 2002 (Baker et al. (2008)) Mass Bleaching Timeline Figure 3a Baker et al. (2008) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences 7

8 Mass Bleaching Map Remote Sensing & Mass Bleaching Figure 3b Baker et al. (2008) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences Baker et al. (2008) Predicting Mass Bleaching Community Impacts of Coral Reef Bleaching Macroalgae cover Munday et al. (2008) Fish & Fisheries Species richness of fishes Habitat complexity Coral cover 8

9 Sea Level Change Effects of Rising Sea Level Local sea level rise depends on global (eustatic) sea level rise + local land movement (subsidence, uplifting) NW Kikai-jima SE Macleod & Salm(2006) (1) GBR passive margin R3 R2 R1 Okinawa Trough Eurasian Plate (2) Ryukyu Islands active margin R1 R2 RyukyuTrench Philippine Sea Plate R3 (3) PNG, Hawaii active margin R3 R2 R1 Relative Sea Level Effects of Rising Sea Level Coral reefs Reefs may increasingly fail to keep up with surface as SL increases (especially with other stress) drowned reefs Seagrasses Migrate landward Decline at deeper edge Changing currents may erode or bring more sediment No major effects on fishes or mobile invertebrates 9

10 Effects of Sea Level Rise on Mangroves Greatest challenge to mangrove systems Must grow upward in place or migrate shoreward Most vulnerable if Subsiding Low sediment supply Can t move shoreward Stressed by other disturbances Effects of Changing Weather RMS systems can recover from physical damage naturally with enough time Pioneer species Climax species More sediment movement & turbidity Most damaging to intertidal or shallow sessile organisms Mangroves will be in water more often stress Hurricane Floyd, /IOTD/view.php?id=471 Effects of Changing Weather But precipitation likely in most subtropical regions Effect of precipitation & evaporation on mangroves Salinity NPP, growth, seedling survival, diversity Conversion to hypersaline flats mangrove area Opposite effects if precipitation Figure TS.9 IPCC (2007) Effects of Changing Ocean Circulation & Upwelling Affect dispersal of propagules & larvae Change genetic connectivity Affect nutritional supply to plankton & indirectly to planktivorous animals 10

11 Managing for Resilience Preserve a wide variety of communities Preserve species & genetic diversity Establish baseline & monitor Understand & preserve connectivity Restore important communities Resources IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Mundayet al. (2008) Climate change and the future for coral reef fishes. Fish and Fisheries 9: Przeslawskiet al. (2008) Beyond corals and fish: the effects of climate change on noncoralbenthic invertebrates of tropical reefs. Global Change Biology 14: Baker et al. (2008) Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 80 (2008) Gilman et al. (2008) Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review. Aquatic Botany 89: Macleod & Salm(2006) Managing mangroves for resilience to climate change. IUCN. Bjorket al. (2008) Managing seagrasses for resilience to climate change. IUCN. 11

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