3.0 Trends and Forecasts

Transcription

1 3.0 Trends and Forecasts 3.1 Metropolitan Planning Area Population & Employment Land Use and Real Estate Development Freight Commodities

2 3.1 Metropolitan Planning Area There are numerous ways to define a region. For the past decade or so, the Middle Tennessee region generally has been defined by 10 counties that share strong economic and political ties. While the Nashville Area MPO s planning area includes only a portion of that 10 county area, it is important for the agency to consider the larger context that lies beyond the edges of its jurisdiction in order to understand the true needs of the region for which it plans. Figure 3-1 Middle Tennessee Region The Metropolitan Statistical Area The fourteen county Nashville Davidson Murfreesboro Franklin, TN Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is defined by the United States Office of Management and Budget (OMB) according to published standards that are applied to Census data. The general concept of a metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area is that of a core area containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with that core. The MSA is often the geography used when making comparisons among regions or metro areas of the nation. The Middle Tennessee or Cumberland Region The ten county geography associated with Middle Tennessee or Cumberland Region dates back to the late 1990 s when local leaders began conversations about the effects of the region s rapid economic growth. A 1999 study sponsored by the Vanderbilt Institute for Public Policy Studies yielded The Peirce Report which detailed the region s assets, liabilities, and challenges as it related to growth issues. The report also provided possible strategies to deal with those challenges. A oneday regional planning summit sponsored by Vanderbilt University and the Greater Nashville Regional Council was organized around issues raised by the report in This first major event served as the catalyst for the region s collaborative work that has been dedicated to planning for the future livability and economic vitality of the ten county region. Since that time, several regional organizations such as Leadership Middle Tennessee, Cumberland Region Tomorrow, the Nashville Civic Design Center, and most recently, the Middle Tennessee Mayors Caucus, have been established. NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

3 Census Urban Areas In preparation for classifying and disseminating demographic data collected through the decennial Census or the ongoing American Community Survey, the U.S. Bureau of the Census defines areas of the nation as being either urban or rural. This determination is made without regard to local municipal boundaries, instead focusing on actual distribution of residential, commercial, and other non residential land uses across the landscape. The Census defines areas as urban when the density of population or urban activity exceeds a minimum threshold. All portions of the U.S. not included in the urban area definition are considered rural. Once an urban area is defined, it is categorized as either an Urbanized Area (UZA) or an Urban Cluster (UC). Urban Clusters are urban areas with a population of at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people. Urbanized Areas are urban areas with 50,000 or more people. As the basic building block of an MPO, the Census defined UZA holds a lot of significance in the metropolitan planning process. Perhaps more importantly, Census urban areas are the basis for funding eligibility and distribution for a range of federal transportation grant programs. Figure 3-2 Census Urban Areas within the MPO Planning Area NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

4 3.2 Population & Employment Since 2008, the MPO has relied on population and employment forecasts provided by Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. Those forecasts are based on national economic trends and provide detailed predictions for socioeconomic information at the county level. According to the forecast, more than 3 million people will call the area home by the year More than 2.6 million of those are expected to reside within the seven counties within the Nashville Area MPO. Where those people live, work, and play, along with their socio economic characteristics, will significantly influence the need for investments into our region's transportation infrastructure. As we think about future investments in transportation, it is important to realize that by the 2040, our region will be larger than the present day Denver region and approach the size of the Seattle Puget Sound metropolitan area. Figure 3-3 Middle Tennessee Population Growth Trend, 1970 to 2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) The significance of Middle Tennessee s growth is further reinforced when one considers that more than half (52 percent) of the state s projected 2.5 million population increase between 2010 and 2040 is expected to occur within the 10 county area around Nashville. A closer look at those forecasts reveal that by the year 2040 three MPO counties will be ranked in the top 5 most populous across the state including Davidson (#2 with 813,000 people), Rutherford (#4, 593,000), and Williamson (#5, 536,500). Williamson and Rutherford counties are expected to add the most people during that time, leapfrogging Chattanooga Hamilton County in the rankings. Figure 3-4 Statewide Net Population Change by County, 2010 to 2040 NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

5 Within the region, Davidson County is expected to remain the most populous county of the region and the center of the region s job market. Williamson County is expected to see the largest rate of growth, as well as the largest net increase in population, more than doubling its population from 2010 through 2040, from 184,035 people to 536,434 a 191 percent increase. Figure 3-5 Population Trends by County, Year MPO Davidson Maury Robertson Rutherford Sumner Williamson Wilson TN MPO/TN , ,784 54,812 41, , ,281 81,021 67,675 4,894,492 20% ,221, ,891 69,498 54, , , ,638 88,809 5,703,719 21% ,499, ,133 81,141 66, , , , ,537 6,356,897 24% ,686, ,627 86,860 74, , , , ,854 6,767,159 25% ,877, ,587 92,767 81, , , , ,428 7,192,931 26% ,261, , ,690 97, , , , ,761 8,054,712 28% ,643, , , , , , , ,902 8,910,265 30% % 29% 44% 71% 125% 48% 191% 102% 40% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) Not only is population increasing at a rapid rate, so too is the demographic diversity of the region, particularly with respect to race, ethnicity, and age. By the year 2040, 15 percent of residents in the area will be 65 years or older, compared with about 11 percent today. Nationally, by the year 2030, experts expect just over one quarter of all households will have children living at home compared with about half of households back in the 1950s. The region s population also will be more racially and ethnically diverse. According to MPO forecasts provided by Woods and Poole Economics, the percentage of the population of Hispanic ethnicity will grow to 20 percent by 2040, from about 9 percent in Figure 3-6 Ethnic and Racial Diversity by County, 2015 to 2040 Hispanic Ethnicity Non Hispanic, Non White Total Ethnic and Racial Minority County Davidson 13% 34% 33% 34% 46% 68% Maury 6% 19% 13% 12% 19% 31% Robertson 7% 16% 8% 8% 15% 24% Rutherford 8% 14% 17% 22% 25% 37% Sumner 5% 13% 8% 9% 13% 22% Williamson 5% 12% 8% 8% 13% 21% Wilson 4% 12% 8% 9% 12% 21% MPO Area 9% 20% 19% 20% 28% 40% Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) Since the 1980s, the Nashville area has evolved into a truly metropolitan economy. Over the last two decades, rapid job growth across a variety of sectors has led to a strong and diversified economic base that excels in the healthcare management, automotive, and publishing industries. Still, the region continues to face challenges with manufacturing employment, mirroring trends at the national level as those jobs are automated or sent overseas. The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate and Service sectors are expected to see significant gains in the coming years. Figure 3-7 Employment Trends by County, Year MPO Davidson Maury Robertson Rutherford Sumner Williamson Wilson TN MPO/TN , ,239 32,943 16,299 63,121 42,000 41,284 27,719 2,777,447 23% , ,062 44,456 25, ,707 57,610 81,092 42,459 3,471,226 26% , ,778 39,998 28, ,805 55, ,263 51,639 3,581,414 27% ,067, ,974 43,100 30, ,853 60, ,235 57,918 3,846,687 28% ,180, ,738 47,043 33, ,093 66, ,311 65,133 4,155,814 28% ,442, ,177 55,746 39, ,490 80, ,802 81,960 4,848,844 30% ,759, ,137 65,609 47, ,416 95, , ,437 5,655,937 31% % 60% 64% 68% 103% 73% 156% 98% 58% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

6 Figure 3-8 Regional Employment by Industry/ Sector, Change Category Detailed Category Jobs % of Jobs Jobs % of Jobs Totals 971, % 1,759, % 81% Farm and Agricultural Services 10, % 13, % 23.7% Mining 1, % 1, % 22.5% Industrial Construction Employment 51, % 73, % 43.3% Manufacturing Employment 59, % 55, % 6.8% Trans, Comm, & Public Utilities 36, % 49, % 35.5% Wholesale Trade 40, % 55, % 37.3% Retail Retail Trade 177, % 315, % 77.3% Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 98, % 191, % 94.3% Office Services 390, % 857, % 119.5% Government 104, % 146, % 40.4% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) Figure 3-9 Percentage of Jobs by Sector and County, Year Category MPO Davidson Maury Robertson Rutherford Sumner Williamson Wilson TN Industrial 21% 18% 26% 37% 29% 28% 13% 29% 25% Retail 18% 18% 18% 17% 18% 19% 20% 22% 11% Office 61% 65% 56% 46% 53% 54% 67% 50% 64% Industrial 14% 13% 18% 25% 19% 19% 8% 20% 19% Retail 18% 15% 21% 16% 23% 21% 17% 26% 11% Office 68% 72% 61% 59% 58% 60% 75% 54% 71% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.(2012) 3.3 Land Use and Real Estate Development As suggested by the MPO s projection for an 81 percent increase in population between 2010 and 2040, the Nashville area is expected to see a major expansion of its developed land area. The ability to predict where people will likely live, work, shop, and play is a key ingredient in forecasting future transportation infrastructure needs. While predicting the future is no easy task, the MPO employs a state of the art geographic information system (GIS) land use allocation model to assist in the effort. The land use model is built upon the basic relationship between supply and demand. Supply in this case refers to the region s capacity to support additional development and is determined by evaluating the physical constraints of land, the regulatory environment, and market forces that drive private sector decisions. Demand is based on the region s economic outlook as expressed by the area s predicted population and job growth. The model has four general steps: 1. Identify Land Available for Future Development: The first step is to identify land that can physically accommodate growth. This analysis includes the identification of parcels of land throughout the region that are either already developed, or have some characteristic or factor that prevents or precludes future growth from occurring. Natural barriers such as bodies of water or steep slopes, or land protected by public policy or regulation (e.g., parks, conservation areas, etc.) are taken off the table and not considered available for future development. The result of this analysis produces a map of vacant green field parcels that have the capacity to support some amount of future growth. The following maps depict land that is considered environmentally constrained or already developed. NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

7 Figure 3-10 Land Availability Analysis Environmental Constraints & Existing Development 2. Identify the Development Capacity of that Land: The second step in the land use modeling process measures each parcel s capacity to support new growth and involves an in depth analysis of its land area, topographic features, and overlying land development regulations and land use policies. The following figure presents the generalized land use policies and land development regulations (or growth policy) that are used by the land use model. Figure 3-11 Future Land Use and Development Characteristics NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

8 3. Assess the Market Potential for Development: The third step in the land use modeling process accounts for the market potential of land by developing a measure of suitability, or level of attractiveness, for each parcel to develop at some point in the future. In taking this step, the MPO relied heavily on the input from real estate developers from across the region to identify the attributes that must exist in order to make a property a worthwhile investment. Using that local expertise, the MPO assigns a suitability score to each parcel based on its proximity to a long list of assets or liabilities that make it more or less attractive for development. Figure 3-12 Market Suitability for Land Development 4. Allocate New Growth to Suitable Land: Once the model has accounted for physical constraints, public policy, and market forces, the last step is to allocate the anticipated growth to individual parcels. In this final step, the model first looks to allocate future growth to parcels with the greatest market potential, but not to exceed any one parcel s available capacity for growth. Once a parcel has reached its full potential as defined by its own physical features as well as local policy and regulation the model removes the parcel from further consideration. The following figures present a series of maps showing the results of the land use modeling by decade across the seven county MPO area. The first map shows the parcels that were developed in The next three maps show the vacant parcels that are developed in each subsequent decade through Figure 3-13 Incremental Land Development Growth by Decade, 2010 to 2040 The next figure presents a series of maps which provide a view of the cumulative growth from the year 2010 to NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

9 Figure 3-14 Cumulative Land Development by Decade, 2010 to 2040 Finally, since the previous figures are showing parcels that are either developed (black) or not (white), the following figure provides an illustration of the intensity of that development, cumulatively 2010 and Figure 3-15 Cumulative Land Use Intensity by Decade, 2010 to 2040 Distribution of People and Jobs With the results of the land use model, the MPO is able to conduct additional analysis on the expected distribution of people and jobs. This is essential in order to understand the implications of regional growth on future traffic congestion. The following figures present the resulting forecast for the distribution of people and jobs throughout the MPO area, with a comparison made to the observed pattern of NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

10 Figure 3-16 Residential Growth by Census Block, 2010 to 2040 Figure 3-17 Employment Growth by Census Block, 2010 to 2040 NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/

11 3.4 Freight Commodities Along with population and job growth, the region is expected to see an increased demand for goods to serve the growing market and for raw materials to feed manufacturing and supply chains. Moreover, the freight and logistics industry itself is a critical component of the Nashville regional economy as the area benefits from the convergences of three major U.S. Interstates, and easy access to national markets. In fact, the Nashville region occupies a strategic location within North America. It is within 650 miles of half the U.S. population and sits at the nexus of major highways and rail routes. This location has made the region a transportation hub for many industries, which have produced enormous benefits to the many communities throughout the area. Forecasting commodity growth is an important part of planning for future transportation needs across the region. The following figure presents the anticipated tonnage of commodities between 2012 and 2040, reflecting an overall growth of 92 percent over the next couple of decades. Additional information about regional freight characteristics and forecasts is available on the MPO s website at Figure 3-18 Commodities by Weight, Growth Forecasts, 2012 to 2040 Top Commodities Total Growth Gravel and Crushed Stone 19,026,517 36,360,057 91% Non Metallic Mineral Prods. 7,497,131 16,212, % Coal 5,724,330 9,913,285 73% Gasoline and Aviation Turbine Fuel 3,801,290 4,056,902 7% Coal and Petroleum Products 3,390,012 3,596,226 6% Waste and Scrap 3,357,683 6,662,374 98% Other Prepared Foodstuffs, Fats and Oils 3,338,737 4,640,400 39% Other Agricultural Products 3,124,533 3,636,334 16% Natural Sands 2,180,983 5,425, % Fuel Oils 1,651,676 1,762,740 7% Motor Vehicles and Parts 1,641,308 5,348, % Articles of Base Metal 1,371,630 4,024, % Non Metallic Minerals 1,170,651 2,182,528 86% Milled Grain Prod. and Bakery Prod. 1,058,651 1,584,290 50% All other commodities 19,089,785 43,510, % Total 77,424, ,916,818 Source: MPO 2015 Regional Freight Study. TRANSEARCH Database. 92% NASHVILLE AREA MPO 2040 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN ADOPTED 02/17/