Main Moderator: Cuong Hung Pham, Senior Operations Officer, World Bank Vietnam Country Office

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific Distance Learning Seminar Series 2011 Session 3 (July 28, 2011): Modernization of Hydrometeorological Services and Early Warning Systems Presenters: Curtis Barrett, Hydrologist Consultant in Hydrologic Forecasting Systems and End-to-End Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems, Washington DC, USA Elmer Claveria, Faculty Member, College of Engineering, Ateneo de Naga University, Naga, Philippines Hidetomi Oi, Senior Advisor for Disaster Risk Management, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tokyo, Japan Main Moderator: Cuong Hung Pham, Senior Operations Officer, World Bank Vietnam Country Office Key Topics Discussed: 1. Global evolution of hydrometeorological systems and technologies 2. Example cases of hydrometeorological EWS in developing countries 3. Assistance to developing countries for modernizing hydrometeorological services and EWS Executive Summary: This seminar aims to share knowledge and experiences on hydrological and meteorological services modernization initiatives for developing countries. The key points highlighted in the session are as follows: While the number of disasters has increased steadily in the last 50 years, the reported loss of life related to hydro-meteorological disasters has dramatically decreased, demonstrating that early warnings combined with emergency preparedness and response planning have made a significant contribution. Recent technological development in hydrometeorological services and early warning systems (EWS) has been successfully reducing damage caused by floods and other water-induced disasters. However, most developing countries cannot benefit from these developments due to lacking financial, technical, and human resources. According to the survey conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2006 to evaluate the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), 67% of NMHS that participated in the survey need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure, and 80% of NMHS need technical and management training. For modernization, ensuring interoperability of metrological data with systems to be set up is the primal principle but this should be developed through user-driven process that will make sure the development of such service modernization, operation and maintenance becomes sustainable in terms of different levels of the capacity of the countries. While waiting for opportunities to upgrade hydromet services and EWS in developing countries, some measures to fill the current gaps can be introduced. This is exemplified by two cases presented in the session: community-driven emergency information management system and low-cost rainfall monitoring equipment for local communities (see Summary). 1

2 At the same time, international cooperation and coordination is essential for the development of worldwide meteorological activities. Scientific and technical organizations such as WMO, UNESCO, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US (NOAA), and others have been contributing to these undertakings. Summary: 1. Global Evolution of Hydrometeorological systems and technologies Recent catastrophes play a major role in strengthening public demand for the modernization of hydrometeorological services (hydromet) and early warning systems (EWS). The inundation of New Orleans, USA by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the large flood in Monterrey, Mexico caused by Hurricane Alex in 2010 showed the world how much disruption and destruction could be inflicted by hydrometeorological hazards. The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Tsunami, which were both geological disasters involving the displacement of immense volumes of water, further emphasized the importance of early warning systems. In sudden-onset disasters like the March 11 Tsunami in Japan, every second counts in making accurate information available to those who need it most. Early warning systems help to reduce economic losses and lower the number of casualties from a disaster by providing information that allows individuals and communities to protect their lives and property. It is important to note that while the number of disasters and the associated economic losses have risen steadily from the 1950's to 2005, the reported loss of life related to hydrometeorological disasters has decreased by a factor of 10, demonstrating that early warnings combined with emergency preparedness and response planning can indeed significantly contribute to saving lives. Every dollar invested in meteorological and hydrological services produces an economic return many times greater, often 10 times or more, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The second priority for action of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) also stresses the need to identify, assess, and monitor disaster risk and enhance early warning systems. Availability of wellfunctioning early warning systems is essential to enable early actions to prevent or mitigate the impacts of potential disasters, especially now that it is anticipated that climate change may lead to more frequent occurrences of severe typhoons and flooding. To be effective, early warning needs to be timely, reliable, and easily understood. Most developing countries cannot benefit from current developments due lacking financial, technical, and human resources. In 2006, WMO conducted a capacity assessment of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in support of disaster risk reduction (DRR). A total of 139 NMHS participated and were assessed in the survey. The results showed that 67% of NMHS need strengthening or full modernization of infrastructure and that 80% of NMHS need technical and management training. In the modernized hydromet EWS system, forecasts and responses are comprehensively systemized from observations using satellites, weather balloons, and radars. This is done through decisionmaking on warning based on forecast model inputs until disseminating warnings to those at risk with alarms and geospatial products. When developing countries set up such systems and buy metrological data, ensuring the interoperability of such information and data with various systems is 2

3 primal principle for modernization. In selecting systems, it is essential to confirm whether modern hydromet ESW can be appropriate to the capacity of the country in sustainable maintenance and management. Moreover, the process of modernization should be user-driven particularly in determining types of data and services. In parallel, capable human resources of NMHS need to be trained for the modernization hydromet services and EWS. Figure 1: End-to-End System Forecasts and Response End-to-End Systems Critical Links to Provide Timely Warnings to Communities at Risk Monitoring Regional Monitoring, Analysis, and Communication s Telephone and Radio Timely Warning Dissemination Warnings Fisherman at Risk Regional Analysis and Forecasting Center National Emergency Response Centers Villages at Risk Radar Rainfall estimation and forecasts On-Site Historical Regional Data 7 Bases 2. Example cases of Hydromet EWS in Developing Countries Recent technological developments in hydromet and EWS have been successfully reducing damage caused by floods and other water-induced disasters. However, most developing countries cannot immediately benefit from these developments due to a lack of financial, technical, and manpower resources. However, while waiting for opportunities to upgrade hydromet and EWS capabilities to come, some efforts can already be made to fill then current gaps. Equipment which can be produced cheaply and maintained easily by local people using locally available materials should be developed. Such equipment may be suitable for early warning at the community level. In this session, two examples were presented: i. Community-Driven Social Welfare and Emergency Management Information System (More details in the presentation by Claveria) The Bicol region is among the most prone to typhoons in the Philippines. While the local authorities do their best to reduce deaths, injuries, and damage to properties, practitioners in the field of information technology at the local university are actively engaged in finding innovative yet inexpensive emergency management solutions. A survey among local government agencies revealed that they still rely on printed and manually drawn maps. Using these simple maps, it is challenging to aggregate different layers of information such 3

4 as the location of evacuation sites, flood hazard mapping, extent of recent and historical floods, incident reports, etc. Maintaining numerous maps by hand and sharing information on real time with relevant stakeholders would then be a huge task that is impractical and prone to inconsistencies. A more modern approach is needed. There should also be a more collaborative manner of participation from local communities and authorities. The intention is not to replace the existing methodology but to enhance it and augment its deficiencies. A proposed solution is the use of more resilient and ubiquitous communication system (SMS, MMS, Internet, and community radio). The Community-Driven Social Welfare and Emergency Response Information System manages an array of services such as a missing persons directory, ambulance and fire assistance request routing, and medical and heavy equipment directory. Any citizen can provide inputs into the system, subject to authentication and validation; hence the system is described as community-driven. Figure 2: System network for community-driven management of emergency information ii. Rainfall Monitoring Equipment with Alarm Unit (More details in the presentation by Oi) Monitoring of localized phenomena is essential for early warning especially for flash floods and landslides in small, steep catchments. In view of frequent disasters occurring all over the world, with so many communities at risk, stand-alone community systems should be promoted while awaiting large-scale, high-tech hydromet modernization. A low-cost, easy-to-make rainfall monitoring equipment with alarm unit has been distributed and used in different countries like Barbados, Costa Rica, Fiji, Philippines, etc. The amount of precipitation captured in a rain gauge is measured by a sensor and is communicated to an alarm unit. When the water level reaches a pre-set level, a flashing light and a buzzer are activated and pre-recorded messages are sent over the phone. Using this equipment, it is not necessary anymore to go out in the storm to check the rain gauge 4

5 reading. And even at midnight the level of rainfall can be obtained. The equipment is especially useful when installed in remote areas. Figure 3: Rainfall equipment with the alarm unit for community operated flood warning Early warning technologies have greatly benefited from recent advances in communication and information technologies and an improved knowledge on natural hazards and the underlying science. The two community-operated emergency management and early warning systems described above can work complementarily to the national hydromet system. Combining advanced and less sophisticated technology will be desirable in addressing various DRR concerns in the future. 3. Assistance to Developing Countries for Their Hydromet Modernization Every country faces a different mix of hydrometeorological challenges which have significant impact on the economic and social well-being of its population. If the current condition of the hydrometeorological services fails to meet the needs of the government, particularly its weather bureau and other climate-sensitive social and economic sectors of society, then there is an urgent need for hydromet modernization to reduce the risks to human life and potential damage to the economy as a result of adverse weather and climate events. However, as mentioned earlier, some developing countries don t have the capabilities to embark in hydromet modernization right away due to various constraints. Fortunately, there are different international organizations that can provide different types of assistance to developing countries. For example, the World Bank is assisting developing countries to 5

6 build end-to-end hydrometeorological forecast and warning systems. Recent World Bank projects supporting meteorological and hydrological agencies include Poland s Emergency Flood Recovery Project, Turkey s Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Project, and Russia s Hydromet Modernization Project. In the Russian experience, a socio-economic analysis was conducted to estimate annual average damages from weather hazards and to assess how much those damages would go down, and how much disaster response costs would change, as a result of improved weather forecasts. The estimated benefits of hydromet modernization were USD billion over a period of seven years, implying a benefit-cost ratio between 5:1 and 10:1. The result of the socioeconomic analysis convinced the Russian government to allocate resources to improve their hydrometeorological services. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) also has its own numerous initiatives in helping other countries establish or upgrade their early warning system, some dating as far back as the 1970s. Current projects in the Pacific Region aim to strengthen National Disaster Management Offices, to enhance the people s awareness of disaster prevention, and to help communities to setup and operate their own early warning system. Since the atmosphere has no national borders, international cooperation and coordination is essential for the development of worldwide meteorological activities. Scientific and technical organizations such as WMO, UNESCO, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US (NOAA), and others have been contributing to these endeavors, all in the belief that implementation of hydromet modernization programs can lead to substantial enhancement of service delivery as well as fulfillment of international and regional obligations of NHMS for weather and climate information. Further Information: Organization: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO facilitates international cooperation in the meteorological field to coordinate, standardize, and improve world meteorological activities. Publications: Background Paper on the Benefits and Costs of Early Warning Systems for Major Natural Hazards Publisher: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) (2009) Capacity Assessment of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Publisher: World Meteorological Organization (2008) Socio-economic benefits of meteorological and hydrological services Publisher: World Meteorological Organization (2007) 6