January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist

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1 January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist

2 Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

3 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

4 Population, income and energy growth Population GDP Primary energy Billion Trillion $211 PPP Billion toe 8 OECD Non-OECD 1 OECD Non-OECD 12 OECD non-oecd Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

5 Industrialisation drives energy growth Billion toe Other non-oecd 6 India 3 OECD Energy Outlook 23 By region By primary use Billion toe Power generation 9 6 Industry 3 Other Transport Billion toe By fuel Coal Coal Gas Gas 3 Oil Oil *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear BP 213

6 Transport Industry Other Power Transport Industry Other Power The power sector leads primary energy growth Growth by sector and region, Growth by sector and fuel, Billion toe Billion toe RoW Middle East India OECD Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels -1-1 Oil Coal Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

7 Transport Industry Other Power India Primary energy demand by fuel Growth by sector and fuel, Mtoe Mtoe *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Final energy use Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels Gas Oil Coal Oil Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

8 Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 3 OECD OECD Billion toe FSU S&C America N. America Middle East Europe India Asia P. ex India Africa Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

9 Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy $211/boe Energy prices 5% Oil 4% Coal 3% 2% Gas 1% Hydro Nuclear Renewables* % *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook Oil - Brent Gas - basket Coal - basket BP 213

10 Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP).5 US.4 Billion toe 5 4 Energy and GDP Trillion $211 (PPP) GDP (RHS) 1.1 World EU* *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook Energy BP 213

11 Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP).5 US.4 EU*.3.2 Billion toe Energy and GDP Trillion $211 (PPP) GDP (RHS).1 World India *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook Energy BP 213

12 Energy supply growth Billion toe Demand 23 level Supply Renew.* Hydro Nuclear OECD Non-OECD 211 Oil Natural gas Coal Non-fossil Tight Other Other Shale *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

13 Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Billion toe Current resources Production in 23 Billion toe.9 Gas Oil.6.3. Resources data OECD/IEA 212 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

14 US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Onshore oil & gas rigs 211 Oil wells drilled and output Thousands Thousands Mb/d * Output (RHS) Bakken Canada Colombia Energy Outlook 23 *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data BP 213

15 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

16 High oil prices are reducing oil s share of primary energy Oil share of energy and GDP Oil share in sector % of energy % of GDP 6% 4% 2% Oil as % of primary energy Oil cost as % of GDP (RHS) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 75% 5% 25% Power Other Industry Transport % % Energy Outlook 23 % BP 213

17 Global transport demand Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road EU US light vehicles Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

18 Global transport demand (2) Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road EU US light vehicles India Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

19 Global supply growth and tight oil Liquids supply by type Mb/d 15 OPEC share (RHS) 45% % 23 OPEC NGLs OPEC crude Biofuels Oil sands Tight oil Other non-opec Mb/d Russia S. America N. America NGLs Tight oil output % of total (RHS) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

20 Global liquids balance Demand Supply Mb/d Other S&C Am. Mid East India 23 level Tight oil Biofuels Oil sands NGLs Iraq OPEC-11 NGLs OECD declines Non-OECD growth 211 Non-OPEC declines Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

21 Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC Unconventionals share of net global supply growth Mb/d Call on OPEC & spare capacity Mb/d 1% Biofuels 9 Spare capacity Call on OPEC (RHS) 36 75% Oil sands Tight oil % 25% 3 3 % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

22 Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Shale gas production Bcf/d Bcf/d Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other RoW Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US % of total (RHS) 18% 12% 6% % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

23 Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

24 Shale gas: regional growth (2) Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d EU Bcf/d Bcf/d India Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

25 Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 8 2% 1 Suppliers per importer 6 4 % of total consumption (RHS) 15% 1% Customers per exporter 2 LNG 5% 2 % Energy Outlook BP 213

26 Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d India Other non-oecd 23 level OECD 35 3 Other OECD N. America Middle East Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD 211 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

27 Non-fossil fuels Billion toe Renewables Biofuels Hydro Nuclear OECD Billion toe Non-OECD Renewables in power Biofuels Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

28 Growth of renewables in power 2% 15% Share of power generation Nuclear Renewable power Growth 211-3, and share of power % share 25% Growth (RHS) Share 211 2% Share 23 % p.a. 15% 12% 1% Non-OECD 5% Renewables 2-23 OECD % % 1% 5% % OECD Europe Other OECD Non-OECD 9% 6% 3% % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

29 Power generation and electricity use Electricity share of final consumption Shares of power output 5% 4% Other 1% 8% Oil Nuclear 3% 2% Industry 6% 4% Hydro Gas 1% Transport % % Coal Renew. % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

30 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

31 Oil and gas: reserves and production N. America Europe FSU Key: % share of global total 5% % 211 reserves 23 output Net importers 211 Net exporters 211 S. & C. America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

32 Tight oil and shale gas uncertainties Mb/d Range of tight oil forecasts (excludes NGLs) Range BP 75% 5% 25% Share of global supply growth Shale gas Tight oil Range of shale gas forecasts Bcf/d 12 Range BP % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

33 Energy imbalances: import profiles Energy imbalances Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Mtoe India EU US Toe per $Mln GDP PPP EU US India -6 Oil ,2 Gas Coal Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

34 Energy imbalances: export profiles Mtoe Energy imbalances Saudi Arabia Africa Russia Oil Gas Coal Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 12 Saudi Arabia 1 Russia 8 Africa Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

35 Energy and carbon emissions CO 2 emissions and primary energy Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion toe 5 Emissions from energy use Primary energy (RHS) % p.a. 8% 6% 4% 2% Gas % Oil -2% Growth of CO 2 emissions India EU US Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

36 Conclusion % p.a. 4% 3% 2% 1% % Income per capita Populatio n Economic growth Efficiency gains New supply Economic growth needs energy Competition and innovation are the key to meeting this need energy efficiency new supplies Energy security and climate change remain challenges Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

37 January 213

38 Alternative for #4 Billion Population Other non-oecd 2 India 1 OECD Energy Billion toe GDP Trillion, $211 PPP Energy Outlook BP 213

39 Transport Industry Other Power India Primary energy demand by fuel Growth by sector and fuel, Mtoe Mtoe *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Final energy use Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels Gas Oil Coal Oil Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

40 Global transport demand (with India forecast added, no history) Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road EU US light vehicles India Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

41 Alternative or additional Bcf/d Gas demand by sector Russia Bcf/d India Bcf/d 5 Transport 45 Other 4 35 Industry Industry 3 Power 25 2 India India 15 Power 1 OECD OECD 5 OECD Industry Power Oil India India India OECD OECD Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

42 Alternative for #21 - Version 1 Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d EU Bcf/d Bcf/d India Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

43 Alternative for #21 - Version 2 (different scales) Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d India Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

44 High oil prices are reducing oil s share of primary energy 1% 75% 5% 25% Oil share in sector Power Other Industry Transport Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars EU US light vehicles % Energy Outlook BP 213

45 Coal consumption Coal demand by region Coal demand by sector Billion toe Billion toe 5 5 Oil Other Industry Industry 2 India India India Other Other Non-OECD non-oecd 1 OECD OECD OECD India India India 1 Power Power OECD OECD Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

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