Energy Interconnection Study Malta - Europe

Transcription

1 Energy Interconnection Study Malta - Europe Dr Ing Alexis Bonneschky, Lahmeyer International, GE 7 Malta, 7 th August 2008 Last update:

2 Agenda Introduction of Lahmeyer International (LI) Abstract of Individual Tasks carried out in WP I, WP II and WP III Findings and Summary A-2

3 Company Profile Founded 1966 in Frankfurt am Main Headquarters Bad Vilbel, Germany Services Technical and economic planning and consulting services LI Group 6 Associated Companies Employees LI group: 883; LI: 526 Turnover LI group: 98 million Euro; LI: 81 million Euro Representatives in 50 Countries Projects in 140 Countries A-3

4 Lahmeyer International (LI) means Infrastructure Energy Hydropower and Water Resources Environment Technology Transportation Lahmeyer International is one of the leading companies world-wide that can offer the complete spectrum of engineering services with all associated disciplines. A-4

5 Deregulated Markets eg Memberstates of the EU Regulated Markets eg African / Asian Countries Energy Interconnection Study Malta Continental Europe LI s s Experience in System Expansion Planning Energy Market Opening in Western Europe and USA since the nineties 100% Regulated Energy Markets LI Activities since Guatemala 1974 A-5

6 Energy Division Involved LI Experts MEI A-6

7 Background of the Study in Malta Client: Objectives: Government of the Republic of Malta MRA - Malta Resources Authority - Enhancement of the existing power supply infrastructure in order to secure reliable energy supplies for the next decades; - Options to develop the power supply system include, e.g.: (i) Interconnector between Malta & Sicily; (ii) Capacity add-ons in local power generation; (iii) Fuel substitution / diversification. - Evaluation of the least cost expansion plan under consideration of: (i) Technical and economic feasibility; (ii) Security of supply; (iii) Environmental, legal and regulatory aspects. A-7

8 Agenda Introduction of Lahmeyer International (LI) Abstract of Individual Tasks carried out in WP I; WP II and WP III Findings and Summary A-8

9 WP I Background Analysis and Research A-9

10 WP I Background Analysis and Research Data Collection and Analysis Entire Energy Supply Chain in Malta; Review of Historical Energy Consumption Characteristics and Demand Forecast. Provision of Background Information Technology & Realised Projects (e.g. HVDC Interconnectors; Submarine Pipelines). Market Analysis Electricity Prices in Continental European Markets; Fuel Price Development. Dynamic Unit Cost EUR/MWh Gas Pipe Laying Vessel (Example) Evaluation of Existing - Units 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Plant's Operation as Percentage of Load Plant's Net Generation in GWh/a Wholesale Electricity Price Development in Continental Europe A-10

11 WP II Study on Energy (Interconnection) Options & Planning Criteria A-11

12 WP II Study on Energy (Interconnection) Options & Planning Criteria Assessment of the Existing Generating Units Under Consideration of Technical, Economic and Environmental Aspects. Evaluation of Planning Criteria Fuel Switches (e.g. Gasoil 0.2%S to 0.1%S); Requirements according to LCPD, NECD, NAP; System Reserve Requirements; Summer Capacity Derating. Assessment of Energy Supply Options (Technical, Economic, Environmental, Commercial and Regulatory Aspects) Fuel Supply (Natural Gas via pipeline or via LNG / CNG); Direct Electricity Supply Options (HVAC / HVDC Submarine Cable); Local Power Generation Options (conventional thermal, small and large scale renewable) Evaluation of Existing Units Fuel Delivery at Delimara Power Station (Gasoil) A-12

13 Existing System 500 MW 1,000 MW 1,000 [MW] 500 Delimara Marsa DPS Development / Retirement of the Existing System DPS Gas Turbine 2 DPS Gas Turbine 1 DPS Combined Cycle 2+1 exist DPS Steam Turbine 2 DPS Steam Turbine 1 MPS Gas Turbine 1 MPS Steam Turbine 8 MPS Steam Turbine 7 MPS Steam Turbine 6 MPS Steam Turbine 5 MPS Steam Turbine 4 MPS Steam Turbine 3 MPS Steam Turbine 2 MPS Steam Turbine Already in 2010 additional available capacity of nearly 20 MW is needed; In 2020 some 390 MW are required and in 2030 a gap of some 800 MW is expected. Peak Demand (sent-out) [MW] System Requirements [MW] A-13

14 WP III Generation System Simulation and Expansion Planning A-14

15 WP III Generation System Simulation and Expansion Planning Balancing of Future Demand-Supply Determination of the potential gap between demand and supply; DPS Scheduling of capacity additions to the system; Evaluation of the future operation and development of the existing generating units (LCPD; cap and allowances of emissions; retirement schedule) and new, most promising supply options (results of WP II). Power System Development Plan Establishment of the expansion plan under consideration of: The Least Cost Scenario; High system reliability; Lowest environmental impact. Lahmeyer International s In-House Software sxplan Simulation of the EMC Generation System (Transition Period) A-15

16 WP III Generation System Simulation and Expansion Planning Scenarios under Study Scenario 1: Reference Scenario (Load: Business as Usual); DPS Scenario 2: NEEAP Scenario (Energy Efficiency and DSM); Scenario 3: Wind Power I (up to 130 MW installed Capacity); Scenario 4: Wind Power II (up to 230 MW installed Capacity). Discussion of Major Regulatory Aspects Recommendations regarding: Interconnector schemes; Future conventional local generation; Future large scale renewable energy use. Establishment of a Regulatory Road Map Lahmeyer International s In-House Software sxplan Weekly Load and Wind Power Pattern 1st December Week Year: 2012 Power & Energy Power Output P Max P Min P Ave Energy Yield E_week E_day Ave MW 1.62 MW MW 3,215.5 MWh/w MWh/d Reference Wind Speed in m/s [MW] Maltese System's Demand Wind Power Penetration 0 1 hour/week 168 Simulation of 1 exemplary week, including large scale wind power generation A-16

17 Agenda Introduction of Lahmeyer International (LI) Abstract of Individual Tasks carried out in WP I, WP II and WP III Findings and Summary A-17

18 Results - New Local Conventional Thermal Generation Options: Gasoil based combined cycle technologies; Gas based combined cycle technologies; HFO based diesel generator units; Conversion of steam turbines and/or gas turbines. A-18

19 New Local Generating Units General Proceeding Pre-Selection of promising power generating plants as the result of: Overall electricity supply system assessments; Site inspections and discussions between LI and local engineers. Techno-Economic specification of the defined local generating options, including: Evaluation of location and basic design; Assessment of environmental key issues; Estimation of project s implementation time, as well as Capex and Opex. Economic Analysis based on the Assessment of the Dynamic Unit Costs (Life Cycle Costs) regarding a series of operation characteristics. DPS Potential Sites for new local generating units at Delimara Gas-Based 2+1 Combined Cycle Plants (~120 MW) are the most promising mid term local generation options! Investment: approx. 190 Mio EUR 1,500 EUR/kW installed Requirement: Gas Infrastructure and Gas Availability A-19

20 New Local Generating Units Energy Efficiency Today the generation system s average efficiency amounts to 30% only; Individual units average efficiency (during ) is: MPS steam turbines: 25% DPS steam turbines: 32% DPS combined cycle: 39% All single cycle gas turbines: 20% New power generating facilities can reach up to 47% (Gasoil fired plants) or up to 49% (Gas fired plants)! Losses in the conversion of fuel to electricity can be reduced by some 25%! Net Efficiency in % DPS 29% Exisitng HFO fired units 37% Existing Gasoil fired units Efficiency and Emissions 49% Ne w Gas-Based units Efficiency A-20

21 New Local Generating Units Reduction of Air Pollution Emissions Today the generation system s specific GHG emissions amount to 890 t CO2 per GWh as an average; The investigated new generating facilities comply with the Emission Limit Values for Nitrogen Oxides and Sulphur Dioxide (LCPD and NECD); New power generating facilities can reduce the GHG emissions up to some 420 t CO2 per GWh. Example: The introduction of gas use in the Maltese generation system by the year 2013 would reduce the overall annual CO2 emissions by approx 200,000 t (nearly 10%). Specific Emissions in t CO per GWh DPS 920 Exis itng HFO fired units 690 Existing Gasoil fired units Efficiency and Emissions 420 New Gas-Based units Emissions A-21

22 New Local Generating Units Power Generation Costs Today the costs of power generation are ~ 150 EUR/MWh. The most efficient plant (Gasoil fired DPS CCGT) incurs the highest variable costs; Life cycle costs for new local Gas-Based generating units are calculated within a range of 83 EUR/MWh (base load) up to 98 EUR/MWh (intermediate load); The switch to gas from 2013 on can reduce the specific power generation (overall system) to approx. 100 EUR/MWh (average annual fuel price increase of 3% is considered) Dynamic Unit Cost EUR/MWh DPS Dynamic Unit Cost EUR/MWh Life Cycle Power Generation Costs 0 0 Reference Case 2 Case GasOil-Based (20% Load) GasOil-Based (30% Load) GasOil-Based (50% Load) GasOil-Based (85% Load) EIA Price Forecast Constant Prices 3% a-a increase 0 Reference Case 2 Case Gas-Based (20% Load) Gas-Based (50% Load) Example: 120 MW Gasoil-Based Unit EIA Price Forecast Constant Prices 3% a-a increase Gas-Based (30% Load) Gas-Based (85% Load) Example: 120 MW Gas-Based Unit A-22

23 Results - Supply of Natural Gas Options: Gas supply via pipeline; Supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG); Supply of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). A-23

24 Gas Supply Options Proceeding Comparison of Options to bring Natural Gas to Malta Subsea Pipeline from Sicily to Malta; LNG Import and Regasification Terminal; Alternative Options (CNG / Regas-Vessels). DPS Techno-Economic Specification of the Options: Evaluation of Pipeline route / LNG Terminal location; Conceptual Design of Pipeline / LNG Terminal. Safety Assessment; Estimation of Project s Implementation time, as well as Capex and Opex. Economic Analysis based on the Assessment of the Dynamic Unit Costs (Life Cycle Costs) regarding a series of operation characteristics. General LNG Terminal Layout with two 30,000 m³ storage tanks at Delimara The Natural Gas supply scheme via LNG conversion is the recommended option! Investment: approx. 102 Mio EUR Storage Volume: up to 60,000 m³ A-24

25 Gas Supply Options Item Experience and Realised Projects Environmental Impact and Safety Security of Fuel Supply Long Term Balance of Demand & Supply Costs of Gas Supply Gas via LNG Conversion (+)(+)(+) LNG Technology is mature and very common DPS (+)(+) Environmental impact is small LNG Industry has excellent safety record (+)(+) flexible choice of LNG supply; flexible choice of shipper (+)(+) high flexibility regarding demand fluctuations and long term increase (+)(+)(+) low compared to present Gasoil supply costs Comparison LNG versus Pipelined Gas Gas via Pipeline (+)(+)(+) Offshore pipeline technology is mature and very common (+) Environmental impact is moderate Off-shore pipelines have excellent Safety Record (-) no flexibility; dependency on one supplier and one supply scheme only (-) limited flexibility; dependency on the designed pipeline capacity (+)(+) low compared to present Gasoil supply costs, but slightly higher than LNG A-25

26 Results - Interconnection to Continental Europe Options: High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) submarine cable schemes High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) submarine cable schemes A-26

27 Submarine Cable Options Proceeding Assessment of the system s reliability, including Available emergency instruments in case of loss of interconnection supply; Influences on the national grid. Definition of import rates and submarine cable capacities (one cable 100 MW scheme vs. two cable 200 MW); Techno-Economic specification of the defined local generating options, including: Basic design, routing and location; Assessment of potential hazards; Estimation of project s implementation time, as well as Capex and Opex. Economic Analysis under consideration of a series of operation characteristics. DPS General Tentative Location of the Converter Station in Pembroke Investment: between 99 Mio EUR (1 cable scheme) and 186 Mio EUR (2 cable scheme) Specific Capex: 990 EUR/kW installed to 930 EUR/kW installed 200 MW HVDC is the best option, but even in full load operation high electricity supply costs! A-27

28 Submarine Cable Options Energy and Capacity 100 MW submarine cable scheme (option 1 to 3) would provide a maximum of 845 GWh/a energy by some 96.5 MW load (losses subtracted). The quantum is equal to more than one third of today s annual electricity demand; 200 MW submarine cable scheme (option 4) could provide a maximum of nearly two thirds. In all cases the reserve margin of the Maltese supply system would increase from 60 MW to 100 MW (full load operation). Electricity Supply Costs Costs consider wholesale market prices in continental Europe, wheeling charges in Italy, and the transmission charges via the submarine cable; Supply costs amount to ~ 100 EUR/MWh in full load (maximum use) and increase up to 150 EUR/MWh in partial load (20% use). Dynamic Unit Cost EUR/MWh 100 DPS Dynamic Unit Cost EUR/MWh MW Option MW Option MW Option MW Option 4 General Average Load in MW Life Cycle Costs of 100 MW Submarine Cable Options Average Load in MW Life Cycle Costs of 200 MW Submarine Cable Option A-28

29 Results - Overall System A-29

30 Overall System Development: Delimara Marsa DPS Development of the available Capacity (Summer Conditions) A-30

31 Overall System Development (2/3): Development of Generation Cost and Required Investment Cost ( ) Commissioning : Fast Track 136 MW(net) HFO based Combined DGU Steam Turbine Set 173 Mio EUR Commissioning 2013: LNG Infrastructure including Regasification and Storage of 60,000 m³ Conversion of Combined DGU Steam Turbine Set to use LNG 102 Mio EUR 20 Mio EUR A-31

32 Overall System Development (2/3): Development of Generation Cost and Required Investment Cost ( ) Commissioning 2014: 125 MW(net) Gas based Combined Cycle Plant 190 Mio EUR Commissioning 2016: 200 MW Double Circuit Submarine Cable Interconnector 190 Mio EUR A-32

33 Annual Power Generation by Source 3,500 GWh/a 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Gasoil 0.1%S HFO 1%S ** Natural Gas Interconnector Power Large Scale Wind Power * * Amount considers the proportion of wind energy absorbed by the Maltese system; ** From Mid 2008 on HFO 0.7%S is applied by EMC in the remaining steam turbines CO2 Emissions can be reduced from >2 Mio t/a in 2008 to ~1.4 Mio t/a in 2020 A-33

34 Results of the Study: The Client The Malta Resources Authority received: - In-depth Analyses of Technical, Environmental and Economic Aspects of: (i) Interconnector options (HVAC/HVDC up to 200 MW). (ii) Capacity add-ons in local power generation under further consideration of issues regarding: - security of power supply, - general system characteristics/constraints, - legal framework. (iii) Fuel substitution / diversification solutions taking into account issues regarding: - security of fuel supply, - commercial requirements; - the introduction of large scale schemes for the use of renewable energy sources in the future. - A least cost expansion plan including: - an overall system development matrix, - a detailed regulatory road map for the next decades. A-34

35 Contact Dr Ing Alexis Bonneschky Head of Economics and Energy Efficiency Department Thank You for Your Attention! Friedberger Str. 173 D Bad Vilbel, Germany T: +49 / 6101 / F: +49 / 6101 / E: alexis.bonneschky@lahmeyer.de A-35