Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity?
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1 Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? Presentation by Khaled Mubarak Al-Mushaileh Vice President Europe Kuwait Petroleum International 30 th September 2016 Slide 1
2 About the Presenter Khaled Mubarak Al-Mushaileh, Vice President - Europe, Kuwait Petroleum International Chemical Engineer from University of Akron, Ohio, USA Over 30 years of experience in Petroleum downstream sector o Strategy and Finance as Q8 VP-S&F o Projects Planning o Operational Planning and Optimization o Plant Operations and commissioning KNPC experience till May 2013 (prior to joining Q8) : o Long Term Strategic Plan-2030 for Kuwait s Downstream sector o Initiated & led development of Strategic & Mega Projects : New Refinery Project (Al-Zour : 615 KBPD) Clean Fuels Project Permanent LNG import facility Gas Processing Trains (IV & V) Challenging situations of Q8 s European business : Refinery, huge Retail & B-to-B marketing, Aviation, Lubricants and a range of other allied services Led successfully a major acquisition and a major divestment Led master plan for Q8Oils with construction of a new state-of-the-art blending plant Slide 2
3 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared only for the Platts European Refining Summit The presentation is intended solely for the benefit of attendees and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without the prior written permission of Kuwait Petroleum International. The information upon which this presentation is based has either been supplied to us by consultants or comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed herein have been arrived internally and are being shared for purpose for discussions at the Conference, which are directional and not for commercial decisions, are however as on this date, subject to changes. We do not accept any liability or claims for your reliance upon them. Slide 3
4 Outline 1. Introduction to KPC/Q8 2. Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? 3. KPC Strategic role in Kuwait s downstream sector 4. Q8 downstream expansions in Asia and Europe 5. Closing remarks Slide 4
5 Introduction to Kuwait Petroleum International (Q8) Q8 is an international subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), the state-owned & world top 10 energy conglomerate responsible for Kuwait's hydrocarbon interests worldwide. Our business encompasses research, refining, marketing and sales of petroleum products outside Kuwait. Slide 5
6 KPC Organization KPC UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORTATION KOC Manages the domestic production of hydrocarbon KNPC Manages and operates 3 refineries, 1 gas plant, marine export facilities and supply petroleum products to local market (Filling stations, KAFCO, KOTC) and international market (Q8 and others) KOTC KGOC Manages Kuwaiti share of natural resources in the divided area Owns 50% of the two companies that work in the divided area. KUFPEC Invests in opportunities in exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas outside Kuwait Q8 Responsible of refining crude and marketing petroleum products to diverse customers outside Kuwait KAFCO Provide aviation fuel services in Kuwait National airport & two Kuwaiti military bases. It also operates & maintains the main fuel station in Ahmad Al-mubarak military base. PIC Manages petrochemicals businesses (aromatics, olefins and fertilizers): Operates 3 plants, Invested in 7 companies New company under establishment: KIPIC (Kuwait Integrated Petrochemical industries Company) Integrating the new domestic refinery project, LNG terminal, Aromatics plant Transports Kuwait oil & petroleum products around the world (covers 15% of total oil and petroleum product exports of KPC). It provides also marine services to oil tankers at Kuwaiti ports as well as operating LPG Filling Branch to provide gas cylinders to local market. Slide 6
7 KPC Downstream Mission & Vision Slide 7
8 Q Strategy 1 Secure outlet for Kuwaiti crude Add high-conversion refining capacity in expanding Asian markets 2 Integrate refining & marketing operations Capture additional value from integration of refining assets into respective retail 3 Pursue sustainable profitability Reduce exposure to unprofitable assets, invest in top-quartile assets, enhance existing portfolio performance 4 Integrate KPC Downstream Optimize integration of downstream businesses, with Petrochemicals & International Marketing Sustainable profitability is a key theme for Q8 to reshape its European & Asian portfolio Securing outlet for crudes produced & Maximization of the value of these hydrocarbons A mission not only of KPC or Q8 but all the ME crude producing countries Slide 8
9 Outline 1. Introduction to KPC/Q8 2. Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? 3. KPC Strategic role in Kuwait s downstream sector 4. Q8 downstream expansions in Asia and Europe 5. Closing remarks Slide 9
10 Challenges before ME crude exporting countries Securing outlet for crudes being oil based economies Extracting maximum value from crudes Meeting ever increasing energy demand as Gulf states transforming into key energy consumers: Growing populations Expanding middle classes Increasing consumerism The Middle East now using nearly 33% of the produced oil compared to just 20% in 2000 Oil and gas are the only energy sources in the Middle East at present Huge consumption of oil in Middle East region for electricity generation Fastest-growing area for petrochemical oil demand Slide 10
11 Middle East Fuel Demand (1/2) Demand by product Demand by sector ME accounts for around a tenth of global fuel MBD in 2015 and growing rapidly (expected to be 11.0 MBD in 2035) Demand increase in almost all sectors especially transportation and petchem Source : Wood Mackenzie Slide 11
12 Middle East Fuel Demand (2/2) Total Demand Demand and GDP growth Average annual demand growth for ME during 1.3%, (GDP 3.2%) The transport sector to remain main source of future oil demand growth Growing industrial demand for energy Source : Wood Mackenzie Slide 12
13 Middle East capacity additions: Currently, 49 refineries in ME with total capacity of 9.0 MBD Large number of projects ongoing for 2.9 MBD additions during Projects supported by several favorable factors Source : Wood Mackenzie Slide 13
14 Why capacity additions by Middle East crude exporters? Major factors favoring the capacity addition in Middle East: Access to cheaper crude supply through upstream integration Very low production costs riding upon o Cheaper energy supplies o Economies of scale o High refinery complexity o Tax incentives Strong demand parallel to high economic growth Easy access to capital markets Growing need to replace costly imports with domestic production Targeted profitable export markets in Asia and Western markets thanks to strategic location of ME Fastest-growing area for petrochemical oil demand As the European refining industry is declining, Asia and ME is expanding and positioning themselves as prime refinery centers with a competitive edge and the ability to dominate the global refining industry Slide 14
15 Global Diesel Trade outlook by 2020 Arrow width proportional to trade volume New Refining capacity moves Middle East to Diesel surplus, its exports directed towards Europe & Africa Source : Wood Mackenzie Slide 15
16 Middle East: Improving refinery yields: Refinery yields are forecast to change significantly by 2022 o Fuel oil yield drop: ~ 5% o Rise in diesel/gasoil yield: ~ 2% o The gasoline yield increases by 5%. The uplift is solely due to investment in high complexity new refining capacity and upgrading capacity Source : Wood Mackenzie Slide 16
17 Outline 1. Introduction to KPC/Q8 2. Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? 3. KPC Strategic role in Kuwait s downstream sector 4. Q8 downstream expansions in Asia and Europe 5. Closing remarks Slide 17
18 Kuwait: Growing domestic Fuel demand from Energy, Transport & Industries Taking advantage of factors supporting refinery capacity addition in ME, KPC has undertaken Clean Fuels Projects and 615 KBD New Refinery project apart various petrochemicals integration projects in Kuwait Feedstock availability Domestic Refining Domestic Fuel demand Gas processing (4 th and 5 th ) Trains : 3,880 MM SCFD Gas for MEW LNG imports Energy Balance KNPC, KOC, PIC requirements of LP and HP Gas MEW Fuel Oil and Gas Oil requirements K BPD Gasoline Refining Clean Fuels Project and New domestic refinery 1.4 million BPD Fuel demand transportation and industrial sector High Low Source : In-house Many Supply - Demand scenario considered Surplus to international marketing Slide 18
19 Outline 1. Introduction to KPC/Q8 2. Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? 3. KPC Strategic role in Kuwait s downstream sector 4. Q8 downstream expansions in Asia and Europe 5. Closing remarks Slide 19
20 Q8 Evolution Since 1983, Q8 has grown marvelously to a fully integrated international oil company. - moving ahead dynamically with a strong appetite for persistent growth Acquisitions Entries JV Exit Belgium Netherlands Denmark Sweden Italy Italy UK Denmark Italy Luxembourg (J.V.) Belgium Netherlands Germany Thailand & Spain Italy Sweden Thailand - UK Germany Denmark Denmark Vietnam NSRP Refining Italy Belgium Vietnam IQP Marketing Revamp Slide 20
21 Q8 Today Refining Supply Marketing Refineries Existing : Milazzo, Italy (50% JV, 268 KBPD) Under construction (EPC stage): NSRP, Vietnam (200 KBPD) Sales 445,000 barrels per day Turnover FY 2015/16 US $ 11.5 billion Full Time Employees 3,600+ Terminals : Naples - largest in Italy ( 3.0 MMTPA) Q8 Retail Around 5000 Service Stations Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Sweden, Italy, Denmark 3 Lube Blending Plants Belgium (Major revamp 2015) Sweden Italy Research & Development Q8 Research, Netherlands IDS - International Diesel Service Over 537 sites across Europe Q8 Aviation Supplying 200 Airlines spread over 70 airports Q8Oils Three Lubricant Plants Operation in over 50 countries Slide 21
22 Taking Advantage of D/S expansion opportunities in Asia & Europe Europe Downstream Strategic Perspective Kuwait Asia Portfolio Optimization : Refining and Marketing Competitive positioning and strong customer base Grow in Marketing (including Aviation and Lubricants) Rationalize and divestment of low value assets Enhance efficiency and ensure highest Safety & Quality standards Meet Kuwait's Energy demand Integrate across downstream to maximize value of hydrocarbons Local and Exports : Clean fuels High Efficiency & Environment protection Capture Refining and Marketing opportunities : providing a backbone to industrialization Integration to Petrochemicals (NSRP-Vietnam grass-root Project) Marketing expansion : Retail Stations, Aviation Fuel supplies and Lube operations Evaluate business options in other countries Slide 22
23 How Q8 is taking advantage of downstream expansion opportunities in Asia & Europe Q8 is highly geared for future opportunities and challenges Q8 initiatives/projects in Europe : Provide a strong disposal engine for Kuwaiti hydrocarbons in downstream Strengthen sales growth (in spite of marginal growth in Europe, Q8 sales has in recent years) Major strategic initiatives in Marketing : o Portfolio Optimization o Development of Automats segment o Network development & strengthening o Enhance network efficiency and products offerings o Strengthening Non-oil segment o Major investment in Lube blending plant at Antwerp : high quality & diverse Lubes Slide 23
24 How Q8 is taking advantage of downstream expansion opportunities in Asia & Europe Q8 initiatives/projects in Europe (contd.) : Enhancing Milazzo refinery yield and efficiency: conversion unit revamps, investment in power plant, Energy efficiency improvement Business restructuring: Efficiency improvement through refinery divestment Aviation: expanding through entry into new regional airports and 3 rd party contracts Leading Digitalization, Customer focus portfolio Leading in renewable energy developments, as part of our business orientation Expansion of lubricants business in Europe and outside in Middle East and Africa Keeping high focus in research through our research and development facility at Rotterdam Slide 24
25 How Q8 is taking advantage of downstream expansion opportunities in Asia & Europe Q8 initiatives/projects in Asia : NSRP-Vietnam refinery: mechanical completion by Dec. 2016, commissioning by mid JV Marketing company expected to start it s first Retail Station in Vietnam during FY Looking for similar viable projects in other Asian countries / new markets : o Refining : long term expensive investment, but a backbone to industrialization plans o Marketing expansion : Retail Stations, Aviation Fuel supplies and Lube operations o Country choice : developing economies and with investment-friendly policies Slide 25
26 Outline 1. Introduction to KPC/Q8 2. Middle East: Why do major crude exporters continue to add capacity? 3. KPC Strategic role in Kuwait s downstream sector 4. Q8 downstream expansions in Asia and Europe 5. Closing remarks Slide 26
27 Closing remarks Refining capacity additions by Middle East crude exporters are based upon: o High demand growth o Low production cost o Access to cheaper crude o Targeted profitable export markets KPC, too, has undertaken new refinery project and large clean fuels projects Q8, international arm of KPC, has adopted expansion and business growth strategies in Europe and Asia European refiners would face competitive threat due to: o High complexity capacity additions in Middle East and Asia and increased exports to Europe o Reduced exports to USA o Compliance with European Environmental regulations o Continued weak demand for domestic oil products European refiners enjoying a competitive advantage based on scale, location & level of complexity would be significantly better placed Slide 27
28 Thank You Slide 28
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