ShaleGas:- Opportunities and Barriers: A UK Perspective. Professor Peter Styles, Applied and Environmental Geophysics Research Group

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1 ShaleGas:- Opportunities and Barriers: A UK Perspective Professor Peter Styles, Applied and Environmental Geophysics Research Group 1

2 Stop Press! SHEER 2.7 Million Euros HORIZON2020 Research Grant for research into issues associated with Shale Gas activities in Europe: Principal Partners Keele University, AMRA(Naples), IGF (Poland) Other Partners GFZ Potsdam, University of Glasgow, University of Laramie (USA), RSK Hydrogeology et al

3 The new Cold War: Gazputin And things have not improved at all with events of the last year or so

4 Shale Gas releases methane held in fractures and micropores in thick shale deposits that are the source rocks in conventional hydrocarbon settings

5 European Shale Gas and CBM plays

6 Bowland Shale, organic-rich and thick Formby natural oil seepage Age Marcellus (U.S.) Lublin (Poland) Bowland (UK) Devonian ( Ma) Extent <246000km 2 covering 5 U.S. and 1 Canadian states Silurian ( Ma) <23000km 2 covering the Lublin region of South- East Poland Carboniferous ( Ma) <17500km 2 covering West Lancashire Thickness Up to 270m (900ft) thick Up to 150m (490ft) thick Up to 790m (2600ft) thick Composition Sandstone, siltstone, black (organic) shale and grey shale Organic rich black shale Total organic carbon <20% 4 20% % Gas in place (estimated) 360 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) =10.2 Tcm 222 Tcf =6.2 Tcm Organic rich black shale, grey shale, sandstones and limestones 200 Tcf (North Sea 170 Tcf) =5.7 Tcm

7 However we need to consider the Goldilocks Effect This porridge(shale) is too Cold This porridge (shale) is too Hot This porridge(shale) is just Right!

8 Approximately 25 to 50 years of UK Gas Consumption even at an extraction ratio of 10%! GS Estimates of Resource available from Shale Gas in Northern England The estimate is in the form of a range to reflect geological uncertainty. The lower limit of the range is 822 tcf and the upper limit is 2281 tcf, but the best estimate for the resource is 1329 tcf.

9 After penetrating the shale, the rock must be hydraulically fractured, or fracced, to maximize the production of natural gas. Fresh water, sand, and additives are injected into the well under high pressure to enhance fractures in the rock and free more gas. These fractures start at the wellbore and extend as much as several hundred feet into the shale. Hydraulic Stimulation : Fracking Sand, is pumped into the fractures to keep the rock from closing when the pumping pressure is released, allowing the natural gas to migrate from the rock pores to the surface wellbore. Water and sand typically make up 99.5 percent of the liquid phase of fracturing fluids.

10 Hydrofracturing in the UK Not new!! >200 fracs Carried out for Water, Carried out for Engineered Geothermal Energy in Granite Carried out for Coal Bed Methane Microseismicity Monitored as long ago as 1988 Beckingham, Lincolnshire Hydrofrac Monitored by my (PS) Research Group (while at Liverpool) in 1988/1989 with BP!! 10

11 o o o o o o o o SIGNIFICANT BARRIERS IN PLACE IN UK AND EUROPE Not all shale gas can be produced due to environmental, technical and practical barriers -Britain's complicated planning and permitting regime is the biggest barrier to the development Population density around known reserves of onshore shale gas, according to a report from the Uncertain Institute geological of information Directors (IOD). Mineral ownership rights Ten different licences from four different public Land access & development costs agencies, involving two separate public consultations, Rigorous European environmental must be regime obtained before a single exploratory well can be drilled and hydraulically Lack of existing technical services, rigs, etc. fractured, according to the IOD report "Getting shale gas working Tax incentives/subsidies likely to be needed o Planning issues

12 Gas isn t on this cartoon yet!

13 Fraccing Chemicals other 0.5% A commonly held view! And perhaps with some justification in the US!

14 Shale Gas & Aquifers

15 Water Usage: CONTEXT About 2.5 Million Gallons of water / well A whole lifetime s water usage of a fracked well is equivalent to a years watering of a golf course! However, may be a much more critical issue in some Regions but not the UK

16 Atmospheric Methane Emissions McKay & CSIRO Reports

17 Where might Methane realistically leak from: Noble Gas Evidence is No s 5 & 7 and NOT the others!!!

18 Well Management Around 2150 onshore oil or gas wells have been drilled in the UK. Because companies merge or become insolvent, between 50 and 100 of these wells are orphaned and up to 53% have an unclear ownership. On this basis we (REFINE) recommend: 1. A one-off, UK-wide MOT be carried out on all UK onshore wells that can be located (up to 2150). ReFINE has started this process. 2. A survey every five years after decommissioning of new wells drilled for shale exploitation. 3. An investment fund for the cost of remediating future leakage of shale wells. 4. A review of existing well ownership and development of a policy for tracking subsequent well ownership. 5. The establishment of a public database showing incidents occurring at active well sites.

19 Cuadrilla Preese Hall 1 Borehole Induced Seismicity

20 Hydrofracturing Stages and Associated Seismicity at Preese Hall: Blackpool Earthquakes Earthquake activity was caused by fluid injection into a fault zone which failed repeatedly in a series of small earthquakes 20

21 Nature Research Highlight before Christmas (Although when we sent it to them they turned it down!)

22 Seismicity: thousands of fracking operations in USA Barnett Shale USA x 30,000 Lancashire, UK (2011) exceptional x 1, Not felt felt Our Threshold for Action

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24 3D micro-seismic mapping in real time (National Energy Board Canada) Maxwell (2012)

25 Suggested Respect Distances based on Observation and numerical Modelling

26 Environment Agency grants shale gas permit for Preston New Road The Environment Agency has today (16 January) granted the environmental permits Cuadrilla needs to carry out operations safely at their proposed shale gas exploration site at Preston New Road, Plumpton in Lancashire. The Environment Agency has over the last 6 months conducted a rigorous assessment of Cuadrilla s applications and carried out 2 periods of extensive public consultation. Lancashire County Council Defer The permits set out the conditions Cuadrilla must follow to protect groundwater, surface water and air quality and to ensure the safe storage, management and disposal of waste. Steve Molyneux, Environment Manager for Lancashire, said: After completing a rigorous assessment of Cuadrilla s application and the public consultation responses, we are confident the permits issued will ensure people and the environment are protected. The right controls are in place to manage waste and the flaring of gas safely, and protect local water resources. We value the feedback received during the public consultation and will continue to work with the local community. Should Cuadrilla begin exploration, we will ensure the permit conditions are enforced.

27 Lancashire Officers EIA Appraisal and recommendation for Denial of Consent to Councillors These were NOT identified as Problems Air Quality Archaeology and cultural heritage Greenhouse gas emissions Community and socio economics Ecology Hydrogeology and ground gas Induced seismicity Land Use Landscape and visual amenity Lighting Resources and waste Public health Water resources Only these were identified as Problems!! Noise Transport These are real issues but measures to deal with these are routine and applied in any industrial/agricultural activity

28 Permission Permits remain the biggest obstacle. To drill a single exploratory well, the operator needs A (PEDL) Petroleum Production and Development licence from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC); from the Environment Agency; o separate licences for o water abstraction, o groundwater activity, o borehole waste disposal, o mining waste disposal and naturally occurring radioactive material Notice to drill and a health and safety approval from the Health and Safety Executive; Land use planning permission from the local authority.

29 New Infrastructure Bill By removing barriers to deep underground drilling access, we are speeding up oil and gas and deep geothermal energy exploration. Realising this potential would help to help bolster our national energy security. Up to now, national oil and gas and geothermal exploration projects at depths around a mile or so beneath the ground could have been significantly delayed by one single landowner. UK introducing legislation so oil and gas and geothermal companies will be able to use underground land but only below 300m (1,000ft). These companies will still need to obtain all the necessary regulatory permissions, like planning and environmental permits.

30 Shale Gas Success Road Map OBTAINING GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT: Understanding the practicalities of both immediate and post-election governmental shale support to assess the sustainability of regulatory backing for UK shale and how it will materialize over the next 5 years GAINING LAND ACCESS: How to build relationships with local councils and landowners to achieve planning permission for key exploration sites WINNING PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE : How to get it and keep it- bringing the public on board by creating factual solutions for dismissing myths, educating the public and gaining mission-critical support CREATING A SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK: Developing an unconventional supply chain network to support shale development in the UK to ensure that once commercial shale is proven, there will be no delay in extraction VALIDATING THE RESOURCE: Assessing the latest depositional, seismicity and flow data to validate the resource and developing fracking and environmental operational plans for fully exploiting the resource ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING: Examining cost effective strategies for commercial-scale water and waste management in UK shale plays to maintain environmentally acceptable operations throughout development

31 The Triangle of Truth for Shale Gas Technically possible Economically Deliverable Societally Acceptable

32 Lardon and Guinevere The Nights of the Round Plastic Picnic Table Barton Moss (igas site) Protestors blog: We have run out of Gas, please send more!

33 The Only Energy Source We Want to Live Next To: But: If we are not prepared to engage in the process of Energy Production are we entitled to participate in the Consumption of Energy!??