Integrated Analysis of Transportation Development and Air Quality Strategy in China

Transcription

1 Integrated Analysis of Transportation Development and Air Quality Strategy in China Professor Kebin He Institute of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University Harvard University, March 19, 2001

2 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 2

3 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 3

4 Overview of urbanization Increase of number for Chinese cities

5 Overview of urbanization Development of Chinese population and urbanization National population Urbanization rate(%) National population Urbanization rate Year

6 Urbanization Trends in China > <20 Urban Population (10,000)

7 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 7

8 Overview of motorization 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Vehicle Stocks in Thousand Passenger Vehicles Trucks Total Vehicles 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

9 Stock of civil autos by ownership, 1985~ Private-owned auto stock Non-private auto stock

10 Private-owned vehicle stock by purpose (1985~1997) Unit: 10,000 Private truck stock Private passenger vehicle stock

11 Share of private-owned vehicle stock by purpose (1985~1997) Unit:% share of private truck stock share of private passenger vehicle stock

12 Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Beijing 图 1-2 北京市机动车保有量变化趋势 ( 万辆 ) 年代

13 Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Shanghai Vehicle Population, Year Vehicles Motor Cycle Mopeds

14 Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Guangzhou 万辆 年代

15 Number of Motor Vehicles 4,500 4,000 Tokyo Total Tokyo Passenger cars Number of motor vehicles(thousans) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Tokyo Buses and Trucks Tokyo(ward area) Total Tokyo(ward area) Passenger cars Tokyo(ward area) Buses and Trucks Seoul Total Seoul Passenger cars Seoul Buses and Trucks Beijing Total Beijing Passenger cars and buses Beijing Trucks

16 Number of Passenger Cars 4,000 Number of motor vehicles(thousans) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Tokyo Passenger cars Seoul Passenger cars Beijing Passenger cars and buses

17 Number of Trucks and Buses 1, Tokyo Buses and Trucks Number of Trucks and Buses (thousans) Seoul Buses and Trucks Beijing Trucks

18 Motorization (Vehicles per 1000 people) Japan 500 Tokyo Tokyo Ward area Vehicles per 1000 people Korea Seoul China Beijing

19 Road Provision per Registered Vehicle (length of paved road/vehicle) 50.0 Road length per registered vehicle(km/vehicle) Tokyo(ward area) Seoul Beijing

20 Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Tokyo Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Tokyo(ward area) Taxi Tokyo(ward area) Buses Tokyo(ward area) Subway Tokyo(ward area) Tram/Train 1,000,

21 Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Seoul Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Seoul Taxi Seoul Buses Seoul Subway Seoul Tram/Train 1,000,

22 Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Beijing 10,000,000 Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Beijing Taxi Beijing Buses Beijing Subway Beijing Tram/Train 1,000,

23 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 23

24 NOx Concentration for Different Scale Cities NOx 浓度 (mg/m 3 ) > <20

25 Rates of NOx exceeding standard 超标率 (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% > <20 城市人口 ( 万人 )

26 China: Urban NOx Concentration NOx Concentration in Chinese cities year No. Of cities Non-attainment cities number Non-attainment for Class II standard Non-attainment for Class III standard rate (%) number rate (%) number rate (%) Nonattainment cities for Class III Beijing, Guangzhou, Lanzhou Beijing, Guangzhou Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai 26

27 Beijing: Air Pollutant Concentrations Air Quality in Beijing from (mg/m 3) year SO2 NOx CO TSP

28 BEIJING: NOx Concentration In 1998 Monthly NOx concentration distribution in NOx ( mg/ m ) # 3# 6# # and 3# monitoring stations are near to the arteries, and 6# monitoring station is far away from the arteries. 28

29 BEIJING: O3 Concentration in Ozone concentration in Beijing 3 O 3 Concentration in Beijing Number of nonattainment days Number of nonattainment hours Max. Hourly concentration (µg/m 3 )

30 Beijing: PM 2.5 Mass Concentration Levels in Weekly variations 9/24-9/30 10/6-10/14 10/21-10/27 11/4-11/11 11/18-11/25 12/2-12/9 12/16-12/23 12/30/99-1/6/00 1/13-1/20 1/27-2/3 2/10-2/ /24-3/2 3/9-3/16 3/23-3/30 4/6-4/13 4/20-4/27 5/4-5/11 5/18-5/25 6/1-6/8 6/15-6/22 6/29-7/6 7/13-7/20 7/27-8/3 8/10-8/17 8/24-8/31 9/7-9/14 9/21-9/28 Sampling Dates Chegongzhuang Tsinghua PM2.5 Concentrations (µg.m -3 ) Similar temporal variations at the two sites Strong weekly variations: max difference for two consecutive weeks is 2.5 times

31 Shanghai: NOx and SO2 Concentrations from 1990 to Concentration, mg/m NOx SO2

32 Shanghai: Pb and TSP Concentration 0.6 Concentration, mg/m Pb TSP

33 Shanghai: CO Concentration 3.0 Concentration, mg/m

34 03/20~03/ 图 1 PM2.5 周平均浓度的变化曲线 Fig. 1 Weekly PM2.5 variations at two sampling sties Tongji Univ. 70 Hainan Rd /17~05/24 06/14~06/21 07/12~07/19 08/09~08/16 09/06~09/13 10/04~10/11 11/02~11/09 11/30~12/07 12/28~01/03 01/24~01/31 02/21~02/28 Week 03/20~03/27 04/17~04/24 Conc. ( ug/m 3 )

35 Guangzhou: Air Quality in Guangzhou: Air Quality from (mg/m 3 ) year SO2 NOx CO TSP

36 CO 图 1-8 三个城市 N O x 浓度变化 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 年 98 年 99 年 北京广州上海 A i r P o l l u t a n t C o n c e n t r a t i o n i n T h r e e c i t i e s NOx 图 1-9 三个城市 TSP 浓度变化 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 年 98 年 99 年 北京广州上海 TSP 图 1-10 北京和广州 CO 浓度变化 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 年 99 年 北京 广州

37 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 37

38 Methodology: Model Description population Ave. speed registration mileage population Vehicle information Energy & traffic Cold/heat start Drive cycle I/M fuel Emission factor model Emission distribution Meteorlogical Diffusion model Transfer matrix Optimization model for control measure options Control targets Strategies and policy

39 Methodology: Grid system grid system is needed ( 364, 1.5km*1.5km grids ) In Beijing, the road system can be described briefly as a network, with ring roads (thick solid lines) and radial roads (fine red lines) as its arteries. 39

40 Calculation of Vehicle Emission Factors Modified Mobile5 model was used to calculate emission factors Modification items RVP Temperature Driving cycle conditions Speed I/M Other factors ( air conditioning used, overloaded and so on ) EF= FUN(CMFALUH)

41 MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Hourly traffic flow variation 1.00 Traffic flow hour 41

42 Three cases in Beijing Formulating mobile source control strategy from 1995 to 2010 Evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control measures since 1998 Prediction of air quality in

43 Case I: Mobile Source Emission Inventory (NOx, 1995, t / y) 43

44 Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Spatial distribution of annual average concentrations in 1995 CO NOx 44

45 Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Year Emissions,(t)) Pollution Share for Emission Pollution Share for Concentration (%) (%) Urban Area Downtown CO NOx 1995 年 年 年 年

46 Case I: Scenarios for control option Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ High-duty vehicles Motorcycles

47 Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY The reduction potential of different control strategies 10 thousand tons CO year 10 thousand tons year NOx

48 Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY CO concentration with control (ug/m3) 48

49 Case I: Government Action Beijing: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles Shanghai: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles Emission Standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles (GWPB1-1999) Standard for hazardous contents in gasoline (GWPB ) 49

50 Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase I Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Scrap m-bus % Scrap other % Temp. stop % return 544/day % retrofit % 50

51 Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase II Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Scrap m-bus % Scrap other % Temp. stop % return % retrofit % PCV % 51

52 Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase III Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Temp. stop 430 / week % return 94 / day % retrofit % 52

53 Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase IV Attainment rate for vehicle emission control reached 90%, which results in ton NOx reduction Measures for stationary sources is considered in the calculation 53

54 Effectiveness from four phases control measures emission reduction (baseline:1998 ) SO 2 NOx transport coal PM10 Phase % 4.52% 0.27% 0.4% Phase % 9.68% 2.86% 3.9% Phase % 12.84% 4.77% 8.8% Phase % 15.53% 6.84% 11.4% 54

55 Effectiveness from four phases control measures Air concentration reduction (model calculation) (baseline: 1998) After control Reduction rate SO 2 (μg/m 3 ) NOx (μg/m 3 ) PM10 (μg/m 3 ) % 16.5% 5.3% 55

56 Effectiveness from four phases control measures 四期措施后相对于 1998 年的削减率 削减率,% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 浓度监测值浓度计算值排放量 SO2 NOx PM10 56

57 Case III: Prediction of PM10 Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ High-duty vehicles Motorcycles

58 Case III: Prediction of NOx Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ High-duty vehicles Motorcycles

59 Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 59

60 Future plan for Beijing s Railroad 60

61 Clean transportation for Olympics Subway: 1.3 million person-trip / day in million person-trip / day in 2007 Mass Transit: 9 million person-trip / day in million person-trip / day in ,000 clean fuel vehicle, 1300 pure CNG 8 million bicycles 61

62 Future Consideration ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY CLEAN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY APPROPRIATE MAINTENANCE TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING CLEAN FUELS 62

63 THANK YOU! 63