Integrated Assessment

Transcription

1 Regular process for global reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment, including socio-economic aspects Integrated Assessment How do we approach this?

2 Integrated Assessment What do we mean by integration? What are the elements that we should assess? How far have these been assessed? What else can we assess?

3 Integrated Assessment of the Environment

4 This includes a massive range

5 Integrated Assessment of Human Activities

6 The third dimension of integration Bringing together: Environmental Economic Social

7 Putting this together The main sections of the Possible Outline of the First Global Integrated Assessment: Part III Ocean Processes Part V Human Activities Part VI Marine Biodiversity Integrated under Part IV Food Security & Safety as a cross-cutting issue Part VII Overall Integration

8 Basic Framework and examples of cell content Dimension/ Aspect Ocean Processes Biological Diversity Human Activities Environmental Ocean currents, Primary production, etc Economic Effects of El Niño, State of coral reefs, effects of fishing discards Coral reefs as tourist attractions, etc Pollution from land-based sources, etc Shipping as part of world trade, etc Tsunamis, etc Aesthetic impact Tourism, etc Social of coral reefs, etc

9 Integrating environmental assessment The environmental aspects are themselves a matrix of interactive elements: Geological structure (rocks, sediments ) Water column (water quality, temperature, salinity, currents, ) Biota (the different trophic levels) Can we measure whether we have overall a healthy and sustainable marine environment?

10 How to envisage this ecosystem envelope? The allium analogue

11 DPSIR Drivers the underlying forces that drive change in the environment both material and societal. Pressures the channels through which these forces affect the environment again, both material and societal; States the resulting states of the environment, including socio-economic uses of it; Impacts the resulting impacts of these pressures and states on biological diversity and human well-being. Responses the ways that society has responded and the results of those responses But we must NOT get into discussions of policy.

12 Measuring the vectors Physical elements (Oceanography geology, currents, sedimentation..) Chemical elements (Water quality salinity, nutrients, contaminants..) Biological elements (Numbers, health and reproductive success of the various species..)

13 Range of Vectors In each broad division we need to consider a wide range of elements For example, among the biological elements, we must consider at least 9 categories: Phytoplankton - Zooplankton Macrophytes - Crustacea and molluscs Other benthic species Fish - Marine Reptiles Sea Birds - Marine Mammals

14 Selecting information What can be crucial to avoid information overload? Possible criteria include: The miner s canary Keystone functions Predominant species Economically significant species Boundary conditions

15 The miner's canary

16 CBD & FAO Ecologically and biologically significant areas Vulnerable marine ecosystems

17 Overviews Aggregating Measures (summarising the combined effects of different elements): Especially top predators, Overviewsfor example, in the North Sea: grey seals sea-bird populations

18 Linkages Measurements that can link S (status) to P (pressures) For example: mercury and/or organochlorine compounds in sea-bird eggs proportion of dead sea-birds found with oil contamination on shore-lines. satellite surveillance of chlorophyll a concentrations in surface sea water.

19 Integrating economic assessment Levels of economic activity Inputs & Outputs Economic outcomes External burdens Use of capital

20 Levels of economic activity What are the levels of maritime economic activities? How are these levels changing? Can we assess the factors that are leading to these changes?

21 Inputs and outputs The availability of inputs, such as: Trained manpower; Necessary equipment; Knowledge of how to operate; Knowledge of the state of the oceans; affects the outputs from maritime economic activities. Can we assess how the balance is changing?

22 External burdens Taking benefits from the oceans involves both internal and external burdens. Internal burdens are those carried by the people who receive the benefits. External burdens are those which are suffered by everyone else (including damage to the environment) The polluter pays principle aims to minimise external burdens Can we assess where the polluter is not paying?

23 Economic outcomes What are the economic outcomes of the human uses of the marine environment? Outcomes for livelihoods Outcomes for communities dependent on the marine environment Wealth generation

24 Use of capital What is the level of capital use in maritime economic activities? What are the links between the levels of maritime economic activities and the capital employed? Can we assess the factors affecting the provision of capital to maritime activities?

25 UK evaluation of gross value added by maritime economic activity

26 Integrating social assessment A spectrum of relationships between societies and the seas: Social groups who earn a living entirely at sea Social groups part of whose livelihood comes from the sea Communities dependent on those who earn their living from the sea Social groups who have intermittent contact with the sea Social groups who rarely even see the sea

27 Social aspects Health Income levels and livelihoods Degree of community dependency Other aspects of well-being (relaxation, aesthetic enjoyment.)

28 Health Relevant statistics on health could include Life expectancy of those in marine work; Injury rates of those in marine work; Distribution and impact of marine-related illnesses

29 Livelihoods of marine workers How can we assess the livelihoods of those wholly or partially dependent on the marine environment? Relevant statistics on income of marine workers could include: Levels in different parts of the world; Relative levels of pay for marine work compared with pay for other work within the region

30 Community dependency How can we assess the extent to which communities are dependent on the sea? Are there assessments of the reliance of societies on the marine environment?

31 The goal - healthy and sustainable seas