METALS PRICING FEELS THE SPARK ALUMINUM, COPPER UP
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1 FEBRUARY 2018 Metals VOLUME 263 METALS PRICING FEELS THE SPARK STEEL PRICES STRONG ALUMINUM, COPPER UP IMPORTS RISE Despite competition from lower-cost imports, U.S. steel prices increased amid healthy demand and reduced overcapacity from China Pricing surged largely due to tight supplies and improved demand, with Section 232 speculations boosting Midwest aluminum premiums Total U.S. steel imports increased 15.5% in 2017, while unwrought aluminum imports increased 12.3%, buoyed in anticipation of tariffs
2 In This Issue MONITOR METALS GREATAMERICAN.COM FEBRUARY GREAT VOLUME Trend Tracker 10 Nickel 04 Overview 10 Stainless Steel 05 Carbon Steel 11 Monitor Information 08 Aluminum 11 Experience 09 Copper 12 Appraisal & Valuation Team 09 Zinc 13 About Great American Group Deals are a moving target. A constantly shifting mix of people, numbers, and timing. We re here to simplify this process for you. Our experts are dedicated to tracking down and flushing out the values you need, even on the most complex deals. So when the time comes to take your shot with Great American, you re always right on the money Great American Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
3 Trend Tracker Ferrous Metal Non-Ferrous Metal NOLVs Increasing Consistent Sales Trends Increasing Increasing Gross Margin Increasing Consistent Inventory Increasing Increasing Pricing Increasing Increasing NOLVS Ferrous: NOLVs increased versus the prior quarter, as seasonal scrap price increases and mill price hikes caused more favorable relationships between market price and inventory cost; NOLVs remained consistent versus the prior year due to similar metrics. Non-ferrous: NOLVs remained consistent with both the prior quarter and the prior year, as the large price increases for non-ferrous metals in early- to mid-2017 grew more gradual in the last quarter, tightening the spread between market price and inventory cost, although the relationship remained favorable. GROSS MARGIN Ferrous: Gross margins increased over the past quarter due to price increases, which positively impacted spot business deals. Non-ferrous: Gross margins were consistent over the past quarter, as margin increases have stabilized, although spot business continues to see margin gains. INVENTORY Ferrous: Inventory levels increased over the past quarter and year to accommodate higher demand in 2017, and due to the rising market penetration of steel imports. SALES TRENDS Ferrous: Sales increased due to higher dollar sales amid increased pricing, as well as higher shipment volumes from service centers in each month of the fourth quarter of 2017 versus Non-ferrous: Sales increased due to higher prices in 2017 versus 2016, as well as double-digit increases in shipment volumes from service centers in each month of the fourth quarter of 2017 versus Non-ferrous: Inventory levels increased over the past quarter amid the rising market penetration of imports. PRICING Ferrous: Prices increased over the past quarter due to seasonal price increases for scrap and recent price hikes by domestic steel mills. Non-ferrous: Prices increased over the past quarter, but at a slower rate than earlier in MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
4 Overview U.S. imports of steel and aluminum increased in 2017 in anticipation of higher prices in the event Section 232 investigations lead to potential tariffs or quotas. Nevertheless, overall steel, aluminum, and copper prices increased over the past year amid healthy demand and tightening supplies globally, particularly given China s capacity cuts. After delays in 2017, in mid-january 2018, the U.S. Commerce Department completed reports on its Section 232 national security probes into steel and aluminum imports, and submitted the results to President Trump, who has a 90-day window to make a decision on whether or not to impose new tariffs and/or quotas. But there is little consequence should the president procrastinate beyond the deadlines. And the continuing prospect of trade actions may drive prices upward. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute ( AISI ) and the U.S. International Trade Commission, total and finished U.S. steel imports totaled 38.1 million net tons and 39.5 million net tons, respectively, in 2017, increasing 15.5% and 12.1%, respectively, versus Finished imports accounted for 27.0% of the U.S. steel market in 2017 and 22.0% in December 2017, peaking at 30% in June. U.S. imports of unwrought aluminum increased 12.3% for the 11 months ended November 2017 versus the full year of 2016, and surged 88.8% from the 11 months ended November Steel prices generally increased in 2017 amid strong demand and capacity cuts. The Metals Service Center Institute reported that U.S. steel service center shipment volumes increased 4% in 2017 versus 2016, with service centers expected to enjoy a further uptick in demand early this year due to a reprieve from high import levels. The U.S. purchasing managers index, while slipping 0.2 percentage point to 59.1 in December 2017 versus the prior month, reflected manufacturing growth for the 17th consecutive month. U.S. auto sales totaled 17.2 million units in 2017, declining 1.8% from the prior year, due to cyclical demand and a glut of off-lease vehicles flooding the used car market. According to WardsAuto.com, most auto companies have cut production in the first quarter of 2018 in anticipation of a softer market. The oil and gas industry continues to slowly recover, with U.S. energy companies adding 12 oil rigs for the week ended January 26, 2018, marking the largest weekly increase since March. Oil drilling activity has risen in the wake of climbing oil prices, which averaged $63.38 per barrel in January 2018, up from $57.88 the prior month and $52.50 the prior year. Rising steel prices have also been supported by China s recent efforts to cut production, putting the country on track to use 88% of its capacity in 2018, although higher global capacity utilization is needed to provide sustained pricing power to steel mills. Northern China s production cuts in December were less effective than expected, as attractive profits persuaded steelmakers to be more flexible in determining the extent of their cutbacks. And despite continued growth of more than 6% in China s GDP, the country s current economic and environmental policies favor the growing reuse of steel. Most base metals enjoyed price increases on the London Metal Exchange ( LME ) in recent months, and surpassed expectations for a second consecutive year in Chinese capacity cuts helped boost aluminum and copper pricing higher than expected, while zinc prices climbed amid low mined supplies. Nickel experienced price volatility in MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
5 Carbon Steel SCRAP Shredded carbon steel scrap prices averaged $338 per gross ton in January 2018, increasing from $306 the prior month, and remaining above the January 2017 average of $ $340 $335 $330 $325 $320 $315 $310 $305 $300 $295 $290 $285 $280 $275 Carbon Shredded Steel Scrap - Domestic Delivered Mill Monthly Average Price/Gross Ton - Jan to 2018 UTILIZATION RATES As ferrous scrap is a key raw material for raw steel production, capability utilization rates for steel mills are an indicator of ferrous scrap demand. The AISI reported that domestic raw steel production totaled 1,719,000 net tons in the week ended January 27, 2018, up 1.5% from the previous week, but decreasing 1.0% from the same week in Capability utilization reached 73.8%, up from 72.6% the prior week, but down from 74.5% the same week the previous year. Adjusted year-to-date production through January 27, 2018 totaled 6,522,000 net tons at a capability utilization rate of 72.5%, down 2.6% from 6,697,000 net tons the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 74.5%. Week Ended Production (In Millions) Change Vs. Prior Year YTD December 30, ,100, % January 6, (5.0% January 20, (2.5%) January 27, (1.0%) Scrap prices have climbed as steel mills implemented price hikes, signaling strong demand. Despite consecutive scrap price increases in December and January, scrap could not keep up with price hikes on hot rolled coil. According to Steel Business Briefing, the spread between shredded scrap pricing and hot rolled coil pricing reached $395 per net ton in the last week of January, while the spread between No.1 busheling scrap pricing and hot rolled coil pricing reached $360 per net ton, marking the largest spread since July 2016 and the thirdlargest spread over the last five years. YTD January 27, (2.6%) Utilization rates above 80% typically denote optimal profitability, and market participants consider a level of 90.0% as healthy. Most of the U.S. steel industry has operated below 80.0% capacity utilization since November Although February is typically a month that sees a drop in scrap pricing, in early February 2018, the scrap market settled at sideways pricing compared to January, with minor exceptions. Most mills had no intentions to drive down scrap prices, as they sought to justify their own elevated pricing. 5 MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
6 Carbon Steel CARBON STEEL SHEET COIL Hot rolled coil prices averaged $682 per net ton in January 2018, up from $638 the prior month, and remaining above the January 2017 average of $616. Cold rolled coil prices averaged $848 in January 2018, up from $824 the prior month, and above the January 2017 average of $822. PLATE A36 steel plate prices averaged $761 per net ton in January 2018, increasing from $679 the prior month, and remaining above the January 2017 average of $ Steel Plate (A36) - Domestic FOB Southeast Mill Monthly Average Price/Net Ton - Jan to $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 Hot and Cold Rolled Coil - Domestic FOB Midwest Mill Monthly Average Price/Net Ton - Jan to 2018 $780 $760 $740 $720 $700 $680 $660 $640 $620 $600 $550 Hot Rolled Coil Cold Rolled Coil Steel mills enacted a series of price hikes over the past few months amid strong demand from the energy industry, more buyers seeking to max-out contract purchases, and a softening in recent import activity as trade-case action spooked many exporters from the U.S. market. In addition, U.S. mills have tight availability of hot rolled coil, depending on the item, and longer lead times, as many mills are full through March or require inquiries for delivery dates. Similar to hot and cold rolled coil, steel plate experienced a series of price hikes from steel mills in recent months. Higher prices were supported by rising ferrous scrap pricing and longer delivery lead times. According to Steel Business Briefing, once certain major line-pipe projects are awarded, plate availability may become extremely tight. The sideways scrap pricing in early February, a month that typically experiences lower scrap pricing, further buoyed the flat rolled steel market in February, with the daily Platts TSI U.S. hot and cold rolled coil assessments at $717 and $861 per net ton, respectively, as of February 1, Market participants indicated the upward pricing momentum is expected to continue over the next few months, especially if the Section 232 decision is favorable for U.S. mills. As of January 31, 2018, the Platts TSI A36 commodity plate assessment reached $792 per net ton. On January 31, Nucor also announced a price hike of $50 per net ton on all new orders of carbon, alloy, and heat-treated plate, marking the steel mill s fifth round of announced plate price increases since early November. 6 MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
7 Carbon Steel REBAR Prices for rebar, U.S. domestic ex-works Southeast, averaged $595 per net ton in January 2018, increasing from $569 the prior month and remaining above the January 2017 average of $547 per net ton. OCTG Prices for grade J55 electric resistance welded ( ERW ) material, 4 1/2 to 8 5/8, averaged $975 per net ton in January 2018, consistent with the prior month, but remaining above the January 2017 average of $ Rebar - Domestic EXW Southeast Monthly Average Price/Net Ton - Jan to J55 ERW Monthly Average Price/Net Ton - Jan to 2018 $600 $1,250 $590 $1,200 $580 $570 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $560 $1,000 $550 $950 $540 $530 $900 $850 $800 $520 $750 Recent rounds of mill price hikes have been accepted by the market, given tight supplies and longer lead times. After relatively stable pricing in recent months, J55 ERW OCTG prices increased to an average of $1,075 per net ton as of February 1, 2018, according to the S&P Platts monthly assessment. The recent price increase was largely driven by strengthening crude oil prices, as well as soaring prices for hot rolled coil and steel plate (both raw materials for OCTG). OCTG demand jumped as oil prices climbed in January, and following the seasonal customer de-stocking at the end of 2017, resulting in OCTG lead times extending into April at domestic mills. A measure of market uncertainty remains as the industry awaits the Trump Administration s decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel imports. Still, the sideways scrap market in early February bodes well for stronger rebar prices to continue. As of January 29, 2018, S&P Global Platts assessed Midwest rebar at an average price of $613 per net ton. In addition, prospective trade action threatened the supply outlook for OCTG. Both domestic and import prices are climbing, with a tighter spread between the two than historical levels. 7 MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
8 Aluminum Prices for P1020 primary aluminum ingot averaged $1.11 per pound in January 2018, increasing from $1.04 the prior month, and remaining above the January 2017 average of $0.90. Aluminum prices have risen as supplies tightened while demand increased, aided by the climbing costs of alumina, a key raw material used to produce aluminum. According to the World Bureau of Metals Statistics ( WBMS ), the global primary aluminum market logged a deficit of 1.6 million metric tons for the first 11 months of 2017, which was substantially higher than the deficit of 770,000 metric tons recorded for the entire year of Aluminum supplies have tightened in the wake of production capacity reductions in China and strong demand. It remains to be seen whether China s capacity cuts will be offset by new, low-cost aluminum supplies this year American Metals Market reports that participants in the aluminum foundry market noted strong demand this month from automakers producing large trucks and SUVs. Alumina costs jumped 56% from August to October 2017, after China shut down some production as part of environmental reforms, and prices are expected to remain fairly elevated until after China s winter production cuts are lifted in mid-march 2018, around the same time when new operations elsewhere are slated to ramp up. In addition, ahead of the Section 232 report date in mid- January, renewed concerns and speculations surrounding potential tariffs boosted U.S. Midwest P1020 aluminum premiums to a high of nearly three years. Midwest premium futures on the CME are set to rise over the next few months to July due to bullish speculation related to the outcome of the Section 232 report, according to American Metals Market. As the higher premiums have little to do with actual spot demand, some market participants expect the physical spot premium to hit a ceiling in the near term. In addition, high premiums could encourage more buyers to switch to aluminum scrap rather than P1020 ingot. 6 P1020 Primary Aluminum Ingot - Delivered Midwest Monthly Average Price/Pound - Jan to 2018 $1.12 $1.10 Aluminum demand grew 2.6% in the first 11 months of 2017, per the WBMS. Aluminum sheet output from U.S. aluminum producers capacity is rising in line with forecasts, buoyed by demand from automakers, who seek lighter-weight materials to meet fuel efficiency requirements. Novelis Inc. announced new capacity coming online, with plans to invest $300 million into a greenfield automotive rolling mill in Guthrie, Kentucky that will have a capacity of 200,000 metric tons. In addition, Braidy Industries plans to break ground on a $1.3 billion mill in Greenup County, Kentucky in the second quarter of $1.08 $1.06 $1.04 $1.02 $1.00 $0.98 $0.96 $0.94 $0.92 $ MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
9 Copper The market price for copper on the LME averaged $3.21 per pound in January 2018, up from $3.09 the prior month, and remaining above the January 2017 average of $2.60 amid tighter supply and improving demand. The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper deficit of approximately 175,000 tons for the first 10 months of 2017 due to stagnant growth in the global refined copper supply. Slower economic growth could decelerate China s growth in copper demand after the first half of this year, though emerging demand elsewhere will support prices. This year, copper demand is expected to benefit from further growth of the electric vehicle market, watery delivery challenges worldwide requiring piping for water transport, greater electrification, growth in renewable energy, and the rise of green construction. 7 Copper LME Monthly Average Price/Pound - Jan to 2018 $3.30 $3.20 $3.10 $3.00 $2.90 $2.80 $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 Zinc Zinc prices on the LME averaged $1.56 per pound in January 2018, up from $1.45 the prior month and above the January 2017 average of $1.23. Zinc performed the best out of the base metals last year, rising nearly 28%, as zinc remained in a supply deficit at the end of the year amid a lack of new Chinese mined supply or restarts by Glencore. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market deficit totaled more than 485,000 tons in the 11 months ended November In addition, LME zinc inventories continue to decline, further indicative of market tightness. The market is slated to remain in deficit in the near future, even with new mined supply and restarts, due to previous capacity closures. The constrained supplies are expected to support zinc prices, with an average price of $1.64 per pound expected for 2018, per AME Group. 8 $1.60 $1.55 $1.50 $1.45 $1.40 $1.35 $1.30 $1.25 $1.20 $1.15 Zinc LME Monthly Average Price/Pound - Jan to MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
10 Nickel 9 Nickel LME Monthly Average Price/Pound - Jan to 2018 $6.00 $5.80 $5.60 $5.40 $5.20 $5.00 $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 $4.20 $4.00 Nickel prices on the LME averaged $5.83 per pound in January 2018, rising from $5.18 the prior month and remaining above the January 2017 average of $4.53. Prospective demand from electric vehicles helped boost nickel pricing, along with tight supplies. According to the WBMS, the global nickel market ended in a deficit of 554,989 tons from January through October 2017, compared to the full-year deficit of 70,000 tons for However, a supply glut from Indonesia and lower nickel demand from China could place downside pressures on nickel pricing, according to BMI Research, with refined nickel production expected to jump from 2.08 million tons in 2017 to 2.11 million tons in Stainless Steel In January 2018, prices for grades 301 (7%), 304 (8%), and 316 stainless steel averaged $1.37, $1.44, and $1.97 per pound, respectively, increasing from the prior month and remaining above January 2017 levels. Pricing remained firm amid relatively healthy demand, with the market partially accepting base price hikes implemented by major stainless steel mills at the start of the new year. In addition, lead times increased to a range of six to seven weeks at the end of January, compared to four to six weeks previously. Surcharges have also increased in the wake of higher nickel pricing. Certain market participants believe that in light of the rise in base pricing and surcharges, the potential for yet another base price hike this quarter is unlikely. 10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 Stainless Steel Cold Rolled Coil LME Monthly Average Price/Pound - Jan to 2018 Grade 301 (7%) Grade 304 (8%) Grade MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
11 Monitor Information The Metals Monitor provides market value trends in both ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The commodity nature of steel scrap, aluminum ingot, copper cathode, and nickel often results in volatile market values. Our quarterly Metals Monitor reflects pricing and market trends in order to reflect significant developments in the metals markets. The information contained herein is based on a composite of GA s industry expertise, contact with industry personnel, industry publications, liquidation and appraisal experience, and data compiled from a variety of well-respected sources believed to be reliable. GA does not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this issue. Neither GA nor any of its representatives shall be liable for use of any of the information in this issue or any errors therein or omissions therefrom. Should you need any further information or wish to discuss recovery ranges for a particular segment, please feel free to contact your GA Business Development Officer. In addition, contact a GA Business Development Officer for a Metals Pricing Sheet or to make specific pricing requests. Experience GA s extensive record of metals inventory valuations features companies throughout the entire metal supply chain, including foreign and domestic metal- and steel-producing mills; metal converters that produce tubing and pipe, as well as expanded, grating, and perforated metal types; metal service centers/processors and distributors; structural and custom fabricators and stampers; manufacturers that utilize metals as raw materials; and scrap yards, recyclers, dealers, and brokers. GA has also appraised precious and specialty metals. GA has appraised metal products with applications in a wide variety of industries, including the automotive, construction, aerospace, industrial machinery, appliance, and electrical equipment markets. GA s appraisal experience includes valuations of major businesses in the metals industry, including the following sampling: Globally recognized vertically integrated manufacturers and distributors of steel tube. A vertically integrated producer of aluminum with over $1 billion in sales annually and over $130 million in inventory. One of the U.S. s largest scrap recycling processors, with nearly $550 million in sales annually. Well-known service centers across the nation, including a multi-division full-line steel service center. Moreover, GA has liquidated a number of companies with metal products, including Charleston Aluminum, Advanced Composites, Aluminum Skylight & Specialty Corporation, Anello Corporation, Apex Pattern, Balox Fabricators, BJS Industries, Buckner Foundry, Crown City Plating, GE Roto Flow, Laird Technology, Maddox Metal Works, Miller Pacific Steel, R.D. Black Sheet Metal, Valley Brass Foundry, and Southline Steel. GA has also been involved in liquidations of metalworking equipment for companies such as Adams Campbell Company, CAMtech Precision Manufacturing, Inc., Gregg Industries, Inc., International Piping Systems, Heat Transfer Products, PMC Machining and Manufacturing, Sherrill Manufacturing, Trans-Matic Manufacturing, Veristeel, Inc., and Weiland Steel, Inc. In addition, GA maintains a staff of experienced metals experts with personal contacts within the metals industry that we utilize for insight and perspective on recovery values. 11 MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
12 Appraisal & Valuation Team BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT Ryan Mulcunry Executive Vice President Northeast Region, Canada & Europe (857) David Seiden Executive Vice President Southeast Region (404) Bill Soncini Senior Vice President Midwest Region (773) Jennie Kim Vice President Western Region (818) Daniel J. Williams Managing Director New York Region (908) Drew Jakubek Managing Director Southwest Region (214) OPERATIONS Michael Petruski Executive VP, General Manager (704) Ryan Lutz Senior Project Manager (781) Kristi Faherty Managing Director (781) Chad P. Yutka, ASA Managing Director, CAVS Group (312) Barry Lauer Metals Consultant John Mitchell Metals Consultant Greg Trilevsky Metals Consultant Alex Tereszcuk Metals Consultant Dan Tracy Metals Consultant John Little Metals Consultant ASSET DISPOSITION TEAM Scott Carpenter President, GA Retail Solutions (818) Adam Alexander President, GA Global Partners (818) MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
13 About Great American Group Great American Group is a leading provider of asset disposition solutions and valuation and appraisal services to a wide range of retail, wholesale, and industrial clients, as well as lenders, capital providers, private equity investors, and professional services firms. In addition to the Metals Monitor, GA also provides clients with industry expertise in the form of monitors for the chemicals and plastics, technology, food, and building products sectors, among many others. For more information, please visit Great American Group, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of B. Riley Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: RILY), a diversified provider of collaborative financial and business advisory services through several subsidiaries, including: B. Riley & Co. LLC, a leading investment bank and a FINRA & SIPC member, which provides corporate finance, research, and sales & trading to corporate, institutional and high net worth individual clients; Great American Group, LLC; B. Riley Capital Management, LLC, an SEC registered Investment Advisor, which includes B. Riley Asset Management, a provider of investment products to institutional and high net worth investors, and B. Riley Wealth Management (formerly MK Capital Advisors), a multi-family office practice and wealth management firm focused on the needs of ultrahigh net worth individuals and families; and Great American Capital Partners, a provider of senior secured loans and second lien secured loan facilities to middle market public and private U.S. companies. B. Riley Financial, Inc. is headquartered in Los Angeles with offices in major financial markets throughout the United States and Europe. For more information on B. Riley Financial, Inc., please visit MONITOR METALS GREATAMERICAN.COM FEBRUARY GREAT VOLUME 263 LOS ANGELES (HQ) Burbank Blvd. Suite 400 Woodland Hills, CA T NEW YORK 299 Park Ave. 7th Floor New York, NY T ATLANTA 1200 Abernathy Rd. Suite 1700 Atlanta, GA T BOSTON 300 First Ave. Suite 201 Needham, MA T CHICAGO 200 West Madison St. Suite 2950 Chicago, IL T DALLAS Preston Rd. Suite 720 Dallas, TX T HOUSTON 9 Greenway Plaza Suite 2050 Houston, TX T MILWAUKEE West Park Pl. Suite 970 Milwaukee, WI T WILTON, CT 73 Old Ridgefield Rd. Suite 6 Wilton, CT T GERMANY Prinzregentenstr 18 5th Floor Munchen, Germany AUSTRALIA Level 29, Chifley Tower 2 Chifley Square Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia 2018 Great American Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13 MONITOR METALS FEBRUARY 2018
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