Monoethylene glycol: Analysing global markets

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1 Monoethylene glycol: Analysing global markets Prepared by Kami Tang Pack Senior Consultant, Nexant E: 13 th March 2018 Presented at ICIS PET Value Chain Conference, Amsterdam, 2018

2 Nexant advises clients across the energy and chemicals value chains 2

3 Agenda Understanding market trends: Analysis of recent factors affecting cost of MEG Is EO cost or PET demand more closely linked to MEG margins? MEG markets: Capacities and future production How will global supply affect Europe? Conclusions 3

4 Factors impacting cost of MEG

5 MEG is primarily consumed as a feedstock with co-monomer PTA, in the production of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin Polyester Value Chain para-xylene Ethylene Oxygen PTA DMT Ethylene Oxide PET Melt Phase MEG DEG & TEG Antifreeze etc. PU, Gas Processing PET Fibre PET Bottle Grade PET Film Textile and Industrial uses Beverage and Retail Packaging Retail Packaging and Electronics Ethanolamines, Ethoxylates etc. Surfactants, Pesticides 5

6 The production costs of a typical integrated EO/MEG plant are dominated by the ethylene feedstock costs Global MEG production by process Coal Based 7% EO hydration 93% MEG is mainly produced by hydration of ethylene oxide (EO). The hazardous nature of EO restricts storage and transportation. Most MEG producers are either backintegrated into EO or hold long term offtake agreements with an adjacent EO supply source. Process technology for production of MEG from coal, via an oxalate intermediate has also been proven, but as yet only commercialized in China. 6

7 China Naphtha Cracker China Coal to Olefins China Methanol to Olefins SE Asia Naphtha Cracker US Ethane Cracker W Europe Naphtha Cracker MEAST Ethane Cracker MEAST EP (50:50) Cracker Dollars per ton ethylene Feedstock values shaped regional competitiveness with ethane and coal extending cost advantage over naphtha Ethylene Regional Cost Competitiveness Q Net Feedstock Utilities Fixed Costs Cash Cost 7

8 China Integrated Naphtha Cracker China Coal DMO SE Asia Integrated Naphtha Cracker US Integrated EP (80:20) Cracker W Europe Integrated Naphtha Cracker MEAST Integrated Ethane Cracker MEAST Integrated EP (50:50) Cracker Dollars per ton MEG Regional MEG cash cost follow ethylene trends MEG Regional Cost Competitiveness Q Net Feedstock Utilities Fixed Costs Cash Cost 8

9 MEG margin drivers

10 Cash margin $ per ton Brent Crude price, $ per bbl Coal-based MEG margins in China have lost advantage over naphtha in periods of low oil price China purchased ethylene China integrated ethylene China coal via DMO Brent crude 10

11 $ per ton Global PET Melt Phase OR, % MEG margins are largely driven by supply/ demand in PET markets % 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% China integrated ethylene PET MP Operating rate 11

12 * US$/ton Profitability is now in the refinery and PX part of the chain value chain Polyester Chain Cash Margin Western Europe (Leader Plant) PET Margin PTA Margin MEG Margin PX Margin Xylenes Margin Reformate Margin 12

13 New projects aiming to capture margin higher in the value chain New entrants into PTA such as the affiliates of the Rongsheng and Hengli groups demonstrated their ability to finance and execute capacity developments of unprecedented scale. Now applying these abilities to PX, investing tens of billions of dollars in new world-scale oil refineries, will aromatics capacity well beyond any previous projects anywhere in the world. 13

14 MEG Markets

15 MEG consumption growth soared to 7.4 percent in 2017 Regional MEG Demand, 2017-e (volume = 28.3 million tons) Western Europe 5% North America 9% Middle East 3% Asia Pacific 80% Regional MEG Demand Growth (percent Volume Growth) Africa Central Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Global Average South America Eastern Europe North America Western Europe

16 The concentration of the PET industry in Asia Pacific has supported high growth rates for MEG MEG Demand by Derivative, (Million tons) % 28.3 million 38.4 million PET Melt Phase Antifreeze MEG Demand Growth by Derivative (percent Volume Growth) PET Melt Phase Global Average Industrial Antifreeze

17 Chinese coal-based capacity growth slowed in 2017 but is set to revive over Four new EO/MEG plants expected in the US Global MEG Capacity Additions by Region, (Million tons) North America South America Western Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Pacific 17

18 Thousand tons Chinese fibre production growth reached the highest level for several years, causing a significant increase in operating rates for MEG China MEG Supply, Demand and Trade % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 0% Production Consumption Capacity Operating Rate Operating Rate, % 18

19 Thousand tons Decreased import requirement in China left more ME material available to ship to Europe in 2017 WE MEG Supply, Demand and Trade % % 60% 40% 20% Operating Rate, % 0 0% Production Consumption Capacity Operating Rate 19

20 Middle East exports to Asia are by far the largest volume Key Mono-Ethylene Glycol Grade Trade Flows (2017 and 2030 F) NA WE Asia SA ME

21 Conclusions

22 Conclusions (1) Recent factors impacting cost of MEG Ethylene is the cost driver Oil price impacts relative regional competitiveness (2) MEG margins History has shown that MEG margins are influenced by PET supply demand dynamics vs feedstock cost (3) MEG Capacity development impact on Europe More capacity will exit in WE due to limited downstream investments A new plant is not impossible in the longer term, but does not currently appear likely 22

23 1 King s Arms Yard, London, EC2R 7AF Telephone: Facsimile: This presentation was prepared by Nexant Limited ( Nexant ). Except where specifically stated otherwise in the presentation, the information contained herein was prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available and has not been independently verified or otherwise examined to determine its accuracy, completeness or financial feasibility. Neither NEXANT, nor any person acting on behalf of NEXANT assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of or for damages resulting from the use of any information contained in this presentation. NEXANT does not represent or warrant that any assumed conditions will come to pass. This presentation is integral and must be read in its entirety. The presentation is given on the understanding that the recipient will maintain the contents confidential except for internal use. The presentation should not be reproduced, distributed or used without first obtaining prior written consent by NEXANT. This presentation may not be relied upon by others. This notice must accompany every copy of this presentation. Nexant, Inc. San Francisco New York Houston Washington London Bahrain Bangkok Shanghai Kuala Lumpur

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