Energy trade and connectivity in Asia and the Pacific. Vladimir Krasnogorskiy
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1 Energy trade and connectivity in Asia and the Pacific Vladimir Krasnogorskiy
2 ENEA major trade flows 20,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Traded Volume (toe)
3 ENEA major trade flows 22 of 31 Traded Traded Volume Traded value shown Good Direction (toe) ($million) 1 Oil Russian Federation to China Oil trade $16 322,98 2 Coal Mongolia to China Coal trade $1 594,58 3 Coal Russian Federation to Rep. of Korea Coal trade $1 788,90 4 LNG Russian Federation to Japan LNG trade $4 733,57 5 Coal Russian Federation to Japan Coal trade $1 918,55 6 Coal Dem. People's Rep. of Korea to China Coal trade $1 153,81 7 Coal Russian Federation to China Coal trade $1 578,21 8 Oil Russian Federation to Japan Oil trade $5 682,87 9 Oil Russian Federation to Rep. of Korea Oil trade $3 662,41 10 Coal China to Rep. of Korea Coal trade $1 014,13 11 Coal China to Japan Coal trade $1 013,42 12 LNG Russian Federation to Rep. of Korea LNG trade $1 053,24 13 Oil China to Rep. of Korea Oil trade $232,76 14 LNG Russian Federation to China LNG trade $195,88 15 Oil Mongolia to China Oil trade $225,77 16 Electricity Russian Federation to China Electricity trade $51,30 17 Coal Rep. of Korea to China Coal trade $7,47 18 Oil China to Japan Oil trade $48,94 19 Coal Mongolia to Rep. of Korea Coal trade $18,39 20 Electricity Dem. People's Rep. of Korea to China Electricity trade $5,65 21 Coal Mongolia to Russian Federation Coal trade $0,43 22 Electricity Mongolia to Russian Federation Electricity trade 610 $0,43 TOTAL: ,48 $42 303,70
4 NCA major trade flows 7,000,000 Traded Volume (toe) 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0
5 NCA major trade flows 19 of 23 shown Traded Good Direction Traded Volume Traded value (toe)($million) 1 Oil Russian Federation to Kazakhstan Oil trade $2 502,42 2 Natural gas Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan Natural gas trade $177,34 3 Natural gas Russian Federation to Armenia Natural gas trade $325,97 4 Natural gas Russian Federation to Kazakhstan Natural gas trade $65,49 5 Coal Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan Coal trade $32,46 6 Natural gas Turkmenistan to Kazakhstan Natural gas trade $58,42 7 Electricity Kyrgyzstan to Kazakhstan Electricity trade $77,23 8 Coal Russian Federation to Kazakhstan Coal trade $29,19 9 Natural gas Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan Natural gas trade $48,62 10 Natural gas Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan Natural gas trade $20,50 11 Electricity Russian Federation to Kazakhstan Electricity trade $99,45 12 Electricity Azerbaijan to Russian Federation Electricity trade $24,98 13 Electricity Georgia to Russian Federation Electricity trade $17,98 14 Electricity Georgia to Armenia Electricity trade $4,70 15 Coal Georgia to Armenia Coal trade $0,19 16 Electricity Georgia to Azerbaijan Electricity trade $0,61 17 Electricity Russian Federation to Azerbaijan Electricity trade 828 $0,50 18 LNG Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan LNG trade 29 $0,08 19 Electricity Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan Electricity trade 9 $0, ,95 $3 486,21
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8 SSWA major trade flows 14,000,000 Traded Volume (toe) 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Iran to India Oil trade Iran to Sri Lanka Oil trade Afghanistan to Pakistan Coal trade Turkey to India Oil trade
9 SSWA major trade flows Traded Good Direction Traded Volume (toe)traded value ($million) 1 Oil Iran to India $9 488,81 2 Oil Iran to Sri Lanka $1 354,03 3 Coal Afghanistan to Pakistan $36,53 4 Oil Turkey to India $85,72 5 Coal Iran to India $14,63 6 Electricity Iran to Turkey $18,91 7 Electricity Iran to Pakistan $8,45 8 Coal Turkey to India $0,80 9 Coal Iran to Pakistan 959 $0,18 10 Natural gas Iran to Pakistan 16 $0,01 11 Oil India to Sri Lanka 6 $0, ,82 $11 008,14
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12 SEA major trade flows 12,000,000 Traded Volume (toe) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0
13 SEA major trade flows 22 of 57 shown Traded Good Direction Traded value Traded Volume (toe) ($million) 1 Coal Indonesia to Malaysia $1 638,73 2 Coal Indonesia to Thailand $1 014,26 3 Natural gas Myanmar to Thailand Natural $3 074,83 4 Natural gas Indonesia to Singapore Natural $4 603,86 5 Coal Indonesia to Philippines $661,08 6 Oil Malaysia to Thailand $2 192,03 7 Oil Malaysia to Indonesia $1 361,73 8 Natural gas Indonesia to Malaysia Natural $296,06 9 Oil Brunei Darussalam to Indonesia $1 004,93 10 Oil Indonesia to Singapore $665,17 11 Electricity Lao People's Dem. Rep. to Thailand $452,36 12 Oil Indonesia to Thailand $441,99 13 Natural gas Malaysia to Singapore Natural $247,36 14 Oil Malaysia to Philippines $240,29 15 Oil Indonesia to Malaysia $204,20 16 Coal Lao People's Dem. Rep. to Thailand $12,38 17 Oil Thailand to Singapore $150,43 18 Oil Philippines to Thailand $161,55 19 Oil Malaysia to Singapore $140,15 20 Oil Singapore to Philippines $149,70 21 Oil Brunei Darussalam to Thailand $104,87 22 Coal Indonesia to Cambodia $15,65 TOTAL: ,04 $19 139,20
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16 Subregional trade indices summary Number of flows Traded volume (toe) Value ($million) ENEA ,48 $42 303,70 NCA ,95 $3 486,21 SSWA ,82 $11 008,14 SEA ,04 $19 139,20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ENEA 32% 13% 55% Oil NCA 57% 32% 3% Pipeline gas LNG SSWA 98% 2% Coal Electricity SEA 16% 31% 51% 1%
17 Major APR importers 450,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Total imports (toe) Imported from APR 100,000,000 50,000,000 0
18 Major APR exporters 250,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 0
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20 Inter-APR major trade flows 20 of 371 Direction Traded volume (toe) Share of total value ($million) 1 Australia to Japan Coal trade ,4% $18 944,33 2 Indonesia to China Coal trade ,4% $6 323,61 3 Indonesia to India Coal trade ,2% $5 087,39 4 Australia to Rep. of Korea Coal trade ,4% $7 193,83 5 Indonesia to Rep. of Korea Coal trade ,0% $3 642,12 6 Iran to China Oil trade ,9% $21 820,15 7 Indonesia to Japan Coal trade ,5% $4 492,24 8 Australia to China Coal trade ,2% $5 149,73 9 Russian Federation to China Oil trade ,8% $16 322,98 10 Malaysia to Japan LNG trade ,6% $12 035,19 11 Australia to Japan LNG trade ,4% $10 744,38 12 Australia to India Coal trade ,3% $6 538,47 13 Iran to Japan Oil trade ,2% $12 196,93 14 Viet Nam to China Coal trade ,2% $1 830,00 15 Mongolia to China Coal trade ,0% $1 594,58 16 Iran to India Oil trade ,9% $9 488,81 17 Iran to Rep. of Korea Oil trade ,8% $9 358,36 18 Indonesia to Japan LNG trade ,6% $7 301,78 19 Kazakhstan to China Oil trade ,6% $8 858,66 20 Indonesia to Malaysia Coal trade ,6% $1 638,73 TOTAL: ,0% $ ,73
21 Trade indices summary Number of flows Traded volume (toe) Value ($million) ENEA $42 303,70 NCA $3 486,21 SSWA $11 008,14 SEA $19 139,20 APR $ ,73 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ENEA NCA SSWA SEA 16% 32% 13% 57% 31% 98% 55% 32% 51% 3% 2% 1% Oil Pipeline gas LNG Coal Electricity APR 28% 4% 13% 55% 0%
22 Asian Energy Highway?
23 Benefits of a large intergrated grid 1. Creation of a vast market resulting in competition and more stable prices (and energy security) 2. Wider opportunities for mitigating peak-loads and more efficient use of existing and new generating capacities (including renewable)
24 What is needed for creating a regionwide grid Raw estimates of feasibility direct implementation suspended implementation
25 What is needed for creating a regionwide grid direct implementation 1. Profound feasibility study 2. Investments 3. Implementation management 4. Regulatory frameworks
26 What is needed for creating a regionwide grid Suspended implementation (development at the subregional level with a view to interconnect in the future) 1. Making sure that the future interconnection is facilitated 2. Technical consultations between regulators 3. Regulatory consultations between regulators 4. Providing for recommendations for subregionally interconnected grids
27 Source: Global Energy Network Institute
28
29 Thank you for your attention!
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