LNG: strategic challenge for the Mediterranean Shipping

Transcription

1 LNG: strategic challenge for the Mediterranean Shipping Michele FRANCIONI COO RINA Services S.p.A. 9 th MARE FORUM Italy 08 th May 2013

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3 A holistic approach Regulatory and Authorization Aspects Technical Solutions Logistic Scenario Financial Issues Social Perception

4 Regulatory and Authorization Aspects Regulation for gas fuelled ships Regulation and authorization procedures for on shore installations Regulation and authorization for on shore and inland water transport Common standards and procedures for LNG bunkering.

5 Regulatory and authorization aspects IMO IGF Code under development IMO continues work on rules for gas-fuelled ships Developing code of safety will support IMO s ongoing endeavours to reduce harmful emissions from shipping, says Mitropoulos. EU directive for inland water LNG transportation under consideration. On shore rules for LNG Terminals and local authorization.

6 Regulatory and Authorization Aspects Study on LNG bunkering rules and procedure, commisioned by EU, just published. Fig. is courtesy of The DMA

7 Technical Solutions Dual Fuel Engines Type C Store Tank with Tank room and gas preparation facilities Adequate materials Installation criteria to minimize damages consequent to collision Double pipe gas distribution systems Emergency shut down systems and redundancy of essential installation

8 Technical Solutions Pictures are courtesy of Wartsila All pictures are courtesy of Wartsila

9 Logistic Scenario Small scale LNG distribution LNG on shore storage & Terminals LNG truck and containers LNG feeder tankers LNG bunkering tankers

10 Logistic Scenario

11 Fig. is courtesy of The DMA

12 Financial Issues Actual context Market start up LNG price LNG / OIL Spread New & existing ships LNG as fuel implications

13 Actual context The market currently does not exist An effective mechanism to create such a market is needed The capital involved has to cover investments for : new LNG Fleet existing ship retrofit logistic infrastructures Not all existing infrastructures are fit to serve the LNG ship related market

14 Market start up Four Main Actors Shipowners New buildings & retrofits Strategic view Regulations Authorizations Gas supply & pricing Infrastructure develop. Management of logistic Shipbuilders & Makers Governmental Authorities Gas providers

15 Market start up Retrofit may represent a value for the shipowners: compliance with forthcoming legislation green label for their ships ship s life extended

16 LNG price Price highly dependent on the considered country Difference: from 3 to 19 $/MMBtu

17 LNG Price 650 USD/t (=15.3 USD/mmBTU) for HFO. 900 USD/t (=21.2 USD/mmBTU) for MGO. 13 USD/mmBTU for LNG (considering 4 USD/mmBTU + small scale distribution costs).

18 LNG Fuel Oil spread LNG price LNG market Spread LSFO - LNG Especially in Europe: Low Spread LNG-LSF (Low Sulphur Fuel) 80% of Imports are Long Term Contracted (Mostly South Europe) 20% is Flexible with Gas Market Indexation (Mostly North West Europe) LNG Prices in South Europe are Partly a Political Issue

19 LNG LSF Spread LNG price LNG market Spread LSFO - LNG LNG and LSFO Spread to be Managed Political Means to Manage LNG & LSF Spread Use of Risk Management Tools. Risk Management Tools Low influence in reducing variability Effective in Reducing Uncertainty in Risk-Taking Decisions. e.g.: lock the spread price long / short on Fuel Prices with appropriate hedging ratios exclude low spread values & high LNG prices create a ceiling and a floor

20 LNG LSF Spread LNG price LNG market Spread LSFO - LNG

21 New & existing ships LNG as fuel implications

22 Ship retrofit costs Conversions are costly Estimates from recent literature on this subject: LNG retrofit approx. 7,5 million USD (including 40 days offhire) Scrubber retrofit approx. 5,8 million USD (including 20 days offhire) Both solutions enable the vessel to trade in SECAs after without having to relay on gasoil

23 Ship retrofit costs Some Retrofitting Facts Retrofit as % of Vessel Type Vessel Value Tanker Aframax D/H 10yrs 43% Tanker Handysize 10yrs 48% Post Panamax Container 5yrs 70%

24 Financial issues summary Funding is Problematic due to Negative World Financial Outlook and Uncertainty on LNG Price LNG Fuelled new building are 20-25% more expensive Considering the retrofit cost as % of ship value, retrofitting is costly. However Opportunities Economies of scale and widespread use of LNG would reduce Equipment Cost The spread between MDO and LNG is not negligible Potential positive cash flows could come from Carbon Credits. LNG as fuel concept demand investments in terminals LNG Bunker Barges or Tankers and Feeder Tankers are to be designed and built (almost not existing today).

25 Social Perception LNG is flammable LNG is dangerously cold LNG is clean YES but Not In My Back Yard

26 Social Perception Transparent communication on real facts Overall, the LNG industry has an excellent safety record LNG has been safely delivered across the ocean for over 40 years over 45,000 LNG carrier voyages more than 100 million miles, without major accidents or safety problems either in port or on the high seas.

27 Social Perception Some countries have already solved the NIMBY issue

28 Thank You!