The impacts of climate change on the endangered species : vulnerability and adaptation in China

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1 Climate change and biodiversity March 30,2009 The impacts of climate change on the endangered species : vulnerability and adaptation in China Wu, Jianguo wujg@craes.org.cn Climate change center, Chinese academy of environmental sciences Bonn, Germany

2 Outline Climate change Climate change and biodiversity Impacts of climate change on endangered species in China Adaptation to climate change for the biodiversity Conclusion and suggestion

3 Observed Global Climate Change IPCC(2007)

4 Global Climate Change Scenarios IPCC(2007)

5 Change in Surface Temperature annual precipitation in China for Past 50 Years Temperature Anomaly (C) 年中国平均气温变化趋势 年中国年降水量变化趋势 The surface temperature in China has been increasing since the last l century. The long-term warming trend is similar to the global average. The warming in winter is the most significant. The maximum warming was found in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China. (Wang et al.,2002)

6 Future Climate Change Scenarios In China XU YING LONG

7 Temperature precipitation Annual Annual Winter Winter Summer Summer

8 Biodiversity and climate change The rate and magnitude of climate change will affect biodiversity either directly or in combination with the drivers other factors.

9 There is more evidence, from a wider range of species and communities in terrestrial ecosystems than reported in the TAR, that recent warming is already strongly affecting natural biological systems. There is substantial new evidence relating changes in marine and freshwater systems to warming. The evidence suggests that both terrestrial and marine biological systems are now being strongly influenced by observed recent warming. Biodiversity will be affected by climate change and sea-level rise, with an increased risk of extinction of some species. Significant disruptions to ecosystems e from disturbances (e.g., fire, insect outbreaks) are expected to increase and changes in climate could also increase the probability of abrupt, non-linear changes in many ecosystems. [IPCC Synthesis Report 2001] Roughly 20-30% (varying among regional biotas from 1% to 80%) of species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction if global mean temperatures exceed 2-3 C above pre-industrial levels. The resilience of many ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be exceeded by 2100 by an unprecedented combination of change in climate, associated disturbances (e.g., wildfire, insects), and other global change drivers. (IPCC,2007)

10 Plant species diversity Animal species diversity The distribution of plant species diversity index of forest ecosystem in China It is very plentiful in biodiversity in China,and there are many y endangered species.

11 Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species is particularly important mainly because existing conservation network and theoretically selected areas will not perform adequately if not taking into account of change of species distributions following climate change.

12 The impacts of climate change on the endangered plants in China (A2 scenario) s Tetraena mongolica miaxim Cornulaca alaschanica tsien Kaschgaria brachanthemoides Ammopiptanthus nanus Artemisia sphaerocephala Stilpnolepis centiflora Dipteronia sinensis , , , , , , , , ,

13 Epehdra lepidosperma Kingdoniauniflora balf Chinese tulip tree Picea neoveitchii mast

14 Abies chensiensis Sabina przewalskii

15 Climate change would cause a changing in distribution of plants some species would enlarge their distribution some would decrease the distribution many would change the spatial pattern

16 The impacts of climate change on the animal distribution in China (A2 and B2 scenarios) Tibetan bear Wild Bactrian camel Snow leopard Wild yak

17 kiang Gazella subgutturodsa

18 Asiatic black bear Stone marten Stone marten

19 Climate change would cause changing in distribution of endangered animal Some animal would enlarge the distribution Some would decrease the distribution Many would change the spatial pattern

20 The impacts of climate change on species diversity species diversity under Baseline scenario species diversity under A 2 scenario in year period

21 How to protect endangered species following climate change would be challenge for the conservation biodiversity

22 The adaptation to climate change for biodiversity conservation successful adaptation is an adjustment by an ecosystem or community to a new or changing environment without simplification or the loss of structure, functions and components. Adaptation activities may include scientific, technological, institutional, behavioral, political, financial, regulatory and, or individual adjustments.

23 National strategy of adaptation to climate change Ecosystem and biodiversity adaptation to climate change are important subject for the National strategy of adaptation to climate change in China

24 The frame at different level of Biodiversity conservation adaptation tion to climate change Understanding the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change The Grade and risk of species dearth, extinction under the climate change Climatic adaptation, the range of geography distribuaton,the population size Autonomous adjustments: dispersal and migration of species, resilience of ecosystem Assessment present conservation strategies and measures for potential adaptation options: increasing resilience of nature reserve, networks of reserve with connecting corridor, captive breeding, pest control, helping migration Species Ecosystem Vulnerability Region, landscape national level conservation species in situ or in different place, genes conservation, plan of natural conservation Conservation,restoration and rebuilding of ecosystem control water and soil losing, desertization and saline control Adaptation strategies and policy for conservation biodiversity

25 Protected area is important for adaptation of biodiversity to climate change Protected Areas: Buffering Nature against Climate Change, World's Protected Areas Threatened By Climate Change

26 There are many nature reserves at different level in China, management and program of the nature reserves at present are lack of considering about the impacts of climate change.

27 More world's protected territory is vulnerable to impacts of climate change 75 species protected by nature conserve under baseline scenario 75 species protected by nature conserve in year under A2 scenario

28 Effective responses depend on an understanding of likely regional climatic and ecological changes. Monitoring environmental change, including climate, and associated ecosystem responses is vital to allow for adjustments in management strategies. Strategies to cope with climate change are beginning to be considered in conservation, and highlight the importance of planning guided by future climate scenarios. adaptation to climate change in the management objectives and strategies of conservation areas

29 Expansion of reserve systems can potentially reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change Reserve systems may be designed with some consideration of long-term shifts in plant and animal distributions, natural disturbance regimes and the overall integrity of the protected species and ecosystems Reducing existing threats to biodiversity to build resilience into natural systems and species, incorporation of climate change information into management tools for biodiversity managers, assisting the natural adaptation of species and ecosystems through improved on-reserve and off Enlarge conservation areas where appropriate, Create and restore buffering zones and habitat mosaics around conservation areas Implement ex-situ conservation and translocation strategies

30 Adaptation to climate change Ql lian mountain nature reserve An xi nature reserve Tai bai mountains nature reserve Blue eared pheasant Wild house Giant panda

31 Climate change, protected area and biodiversity conservation ,2008,XI NING

32 Gan su an xi national nature reserve An xi nature reserve

33 In situ conservation endangered plant for adaptation to climate change Shortleaf Anabasis transplant experiment April 25,2008 May 13,2008 August 20,2008 Experiment of Endangered Species Ammopiptanthus mongolicus Maxim 2008 年 4 月 25 日 2008 年 5 月 13 日 2008 年 8 月 20 日

34 Ex situ conservation endangered plant for adaptation to climate change

35 保护区北片的红砂 + 黑柴荒漠 2008 年 9 月保护区北片的霸王 + 红砂荒漠 2008 年 9 月 第一季度 第二季度 第三季度 第四季度 Monitoring climate, and associated species and ecosystem responses.

36 monitoring animal behavior for adaptation to climate change 监测岩羊 Monitoring Habitat of animal for adaptation to climate change 4 月 15 日 10 月 17 日

37 building livestock shed for adaptation of wild house to extreme climate event Artificial supply fodder for adaptation of wild house to extreme climate event building artificial watering trough for adaptation of wild house to climatic drought

38 Ql lian mountain nature reserves restoration vegetation protected habitat monitoring species and ecosystem built grate around grassland for the animal control forest fire for adaptation to climate change

39 Tai bai mountains nature reserve monitoring behavior of giant panda for adaptation to climate change 秦岭细鳞鲑 ex situ conservation Qinling lenok for adaptation to climate change

40 Species adaptation measurements to climate change 序 号 名称目前状态脆弱性气候变化后选择脆 弱 性 可靠性 1 阿拉善单 中国特有, 已知分布 易危 VU 适宜分布区消失 ; 建议就地保护的同时迁 极 中长期内有效 刺蓬 地点少于 10 个, 种群 Bab(ii,iii) 地保护, 再具体, 从种子 无性繁殖 栖 高 持续衰退 息地保护到基因保存, 减少其它影响, 其 他物种也一样 2 矮沙冬青中国为次要分布区, 濒危 EN 适宜分布区消失 ; 建议就地保护, 开展繁殖 极 当前和短期内有 已知分布地点少于 5 Blab(ii)+2a 试验和引种驯化 高 效 个, 种群持续衰退 b(ii) 3 白沙蒿未列入适宜分布区消失 ; 就地保护, 栖息地恢复极 高 当前和短期内有 效 4 白梭梭中国为次要分布区, 易危 VU 新疆的适宜分布区面积减小, 内蒙古的东 中 当前和中长期内 推测过去 3 个世代内 A2c 北部出现新的分布区 ; 建议在原分布区新 等 均有效 致危因素没有停止, 疆, 进行就地保护, 进行栖息地保护与恢复 ; 种群至少减少 30% 同时在内蒙古东北部进行迁地保护, 帮助 迁徙 5 百花蒿一年生草本, 生于沙 丘 未列入适宜分布区消失, 人工帮助繁殖极 高 中长期内有效 6 斑子麻黄中国为次要分布区, 濒危 EN 其适宜分布区消失, 建议就地保护, 减少非 极 当前和短期内有 已知分布地点少于 5 B2ab(ii) 气候变化不利影响 高 效 个, 种群持续衰弱

41 Conclusion and suggestion Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity is important for conservation biodiversity. The impacts of climate change on the nature reserve include impacts of vegetation, topography, soil and other factors, and many uncertain existed about impacts of climate change on factors.

42 The impacts of climate change on nature reserve also include the species viability, changing of habitat, ecosystem structure and function, landscape structure and function,vulnerability and so on. Management strategies for effectively conservation biodiversity must expand protection of future patterns of biodiversity under climate change.

43 Thanks!