Adapting to Climate Change in Western National Forests
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1 Adapting to Climate Change in Western National Forests David L. Peterson 1, Jessica E. Halofsky 2, Natalie Little 3 ¹USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station ²University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences 3 USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Region
2 What is climate change adaptation? An effort to lower the potentially negative consequences of climate change AND transition ecosystems and natural resources to a warmer climate. C mon, c mon it s either one or the other.
3 What is climate change adaptation? Fine tuning and prioritizing current planning and management Component of sustainable resource management A form of risk management Required by the 2012 Planning Rule C mon, c mon it s either one or the other.
4
5 The adaptation process 1. Education Hold workshops and webinars to increase climate change knowledge. 2. Vulnerability Assessment Review climate projections and identify resource sensitivities. Start with a sciencemanagement partnership 3. Adaptation Planning Develop sciencebased adaptation options. 4. Implementation Incorporate adaptation strategies into existing management plans.
6 Adapting to climate change Information & tools Climate Change Resource Center U.S. Forest Service
7 Adapting to climate change Information & tools
8 Adapting to climate change Information & tools
9 Adapting to climate change Information & tools Climate Change Adaptation Library
10 No, we don t need more research At least not for adaptation
11 How do we manage for resilient landscapes in a warmer climate? Tripod Fire 2006 Okanogan Wenatchee NF 175,000 acres
12 Extreme weather + increased disturbance: The primary challenge
13 Adaptation strategy Increase landscape diversity Diversify spatial distribution of forest age and structure Implement thinning and fuel treatments across large landscapes. Orient the location of treatments in large blocks to modify fire severity and spread.
14 Adaptation strategy Treat large disturbances as an opportunity Develop management strategies and on-theground actions for implementation following wildfire and insect outbreaks. Include long-term experimentation. Get the plans approved.
15 Adaptation strategy Incorporate risk assessment Quantify or at least estimate the risk of climate change effects on natural resources Current 2050
16 Adaptation strategy Incorporate risk assessment Quantify or at least estimate the risk of climate change effects on natural resources. Use risk assessment to guide adaptation responses.
17 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER
18 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER Vulnerability Higher peak flows in fall and winter
19 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER Vulnerability Higher peak flows in fall and winter Adaptation strategy Design infrastructure to accommodate higher peak flows
20 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER Vulnerability Higher peak flows in fall and winter Adaptation tactics Install larger culverts Decommission roads in floodplains Relocate campgrounds subject to flooding
21 Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES
22 Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES Vulnerability Higher stream temperatures will degrade habitat
23 Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES Vulnerability Higher stream temperatures will degrade habitat Adaptation strategy Restore and maintain cold-water habitat
24 Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES Vulnerability Higher stream temperatures will degrade habitat Adaptation tactics Map cold-water habitat Restore side channels Increase shade in riparian areas
25 Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION
26 Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION Vulnerability Wildfire will burn more area and over a longer fire season
27 Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION Vulnerability Wildfire will burn more area and over a longer fire season Adaptation strategy Increase resilience of forest ecosystems to more frequent fire
28 Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION Vulnerability Wildfire will burn more area and over a longer fire season Adaptation tactics Reduce stand densities Accelerate hazardous fuel treatments Manage for diversity of stand ages
29 Vulnerabilities and adaptation SUMMER RECREATION
30 Vulnerabilities and adaptation SUMMER RECREATION Vulnerability Increasing temperatures and earlier snowmelt
31 Vulnerabilities and adaptation SUMMER RECREATION Vulnerability Increasing temperatures and earlier snowmelt Adaptation strategy Provide sustainable recreation opportunities in response to changing demands
32 Vulnerabilities and adaptation SUMMER RECREATION Vulnerability Increasing temperatures and earlier snowmelt Adaptation tactics Understand changing patterns of use Adjust capacity of recreation sites Adjust timing of road and trail closures
33 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WINTER RECREATION
34 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WINTER RECREATION Vulnerability Shorter winters with less snow, and wetter or icier snow
35 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WINTER RECREATION Vulnerability Shorter winters with less snow, and wetter or icier snow Adaptation strategy Increase recreation management flexibility
36 Vulnerabilities and adaptation WINTER RECREATION Vulnerability Shorter winters with less snow, and wetter or icier snow Adaptation tactics Expand facilities in areas where concentrated use increases Develop options for diversifying snow-based recreation
37 Adaptation Partnerships (complete or in progress) Olympic Southwest Washington North Cascadia South Central Oregon Blue Mountains Intermountain Northern Rockies
38 Typical assessment topics Vegetation (ecological disturbance) Wildlife Water Fish New assessment topics Recreation Infrastructure Ecosystem services Cultural resources
39 Products and outcomes Climate change thinking and awareness Climate change partnerships Data gathering and information sharing Website ( USFS General Technical Report Reference for climate change projections and effects Menu of adaptation options Journal articles Follow-up projects in the region
40 Products and outcomes
41 Products and outcomes The most important outcome is building organizational capacity to address the effects of climate change on natural resources.
42 Implementing adaptation strategies and tactics
43 Making a partnership work Engage leadership, CC coordinators Develop a sense of commitment and trust Communicate well and often (face time) Negotiate a realistic schedule Choose your battles wisely Work with partners share experiences Focus on sustainable resource management
44 The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) A science-management partnership whose goals are to: Increase climate change awareness Assess vulnerability of natural resources Develop adaptation strategies and tactics
45 IAP Vision and Strategy Identify key resources critical to adaptation action plans Provide specialist training to apply climate change knowledge in land management Guide national forest planning and NEPA analysis Create partnerships with similar benefiting projects Synthesize information into a published General Technical Report
46 IAP Geographic Areas
47 IAP Focus Areas Hydrology, Soil, and Water Resources Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Vegetation and Disturbance Terrestrial Animals Recreation Infrastructure Cultural Heritage Ecosystem Services
48 Resource concerns: a sneak peek Lower water availability in summer Effects of higher stream temperature on fish Effects of less snow on winter recreation
49 Resource concerns: a sneak peek Increased occurrence of wildfire and insects Higher temp. + more fire will reduce carbon storage More fire will reduce habitat for greater sagegrouse
50 Partnerships National Park Service Bureau of Land Management Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Science Centers Tribes States NGOs Universities Conservation Groups
51 IAP Timeline Spring 2015: Kickoff meeting and partner webinar May 2015 April 2016: Compile information for the vulnerability assessment March 2016: Webinars describing assessment results May-June 2016: Adaptation workshops June 2016-June 2017: Complete final report and peer review Late 2017: Published General Technical Report
52 March Webinars (all 9-11 am MST) March 3: Biogeography, Climate and Hydrology March 10: Vegetation and Ecological Disturbance March 17: Aquatic and Terrestrial Species March 24: Recreation and Infrastructure March 31: Cultural Heritage and Ecosystem Services
53 Two-Day Workshops May 4 & 5: Ogden, Utah (Uintas and Wasatch Front) May 11 & 12: Boise, Idaho (Middle Rockies) May 18 & 19: Salt Lake City, Utah (Plateaus) May 25 & 26: Reno, Nevada (Great Basin) June 1 & 2: Idaho Falls, Idaho (Southern Greater Yellowstone)
54 For information on webinars and workshops, and to subscribe to the listserv, see:
55 Discussion Adaptation is a marathon, not a sprint
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