Climate Projections for the Chesapeake Bay

Transcription

1 Climate Projections for the Chesapeake Bay Dr. Bruce A. Wielicki NASA Langley Research Center December 5, 2013 VIMS

2 Human Influence on Climate Carbon Dioxide Trends: 100yr lifetime Methane Trends Sulfate Trends Global Temperature Trends From M. Prather University of California at Irvine

3 Global surface temperature change IPCC 2007 IPCC, 2007

4 What do physical climate models predict the change should be? Natural Forcings Cannot Explain Observations IPCC, 2007 Natural Forcings: Solar, Volcanic Eruptions Human Forcings: CO 2, Methane, Aerosols, Ozone, Land change

5 Climate Model Predictions: Add Human Forcing Natural Forcings And Human Forcings Do Explain Observations IPCC, 2007 Natural Forcings: Solar, Volcanic Eruptions Human Forcings: CO 2, Methane, Aerosols, Ozone, Land change

6 What do climate models predict regional change should be? IPCC, 2007

7 Global Temperature Predictions IPCC, 2007

8 Where is it 10 F Warmer on average? Water? Real Estate? Crops? Health? Denver Amarillo Illinois Mississippi Washington Tallahassee

9 What about the Southeast U.S.? U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed regional assessments of climate change Recent USGCRP assessment report on the Southeast U.S. released Fall, 2013 (340 page report) Report can be downloaded from: Sea level rise from a range of reports

10 SE Decadal Temperature Change Deg F Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

11 Annual & Seasonal Temperature Change 2065 Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

12 Change in Days with T > 95F, 2065 Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

13 Change in Days with T < 10F, 2065 Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

14 Annual & Seasonal Precipitation Change 2065 Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

15 Change Water Yield 2010 to 2060 Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

16 Water Supply Stress Index 2051 to 2060 b Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

17 Extreme Precipitation Index Increasing Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

18 Summer Extreme Precipitation Increase Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

19 IPCC Sea Level Rise, 2013 Report

20 Varying Reports, Papers: Sea Level Rise IPCC 2007 does not include major ice sheet melting, all newer studies do include Greenland and Antarctica Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

21 300 ft ft 150 ft -150 ft -300 ft -450 ft The Long Thaw Archer, 2009

22 Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: 1m, 2m, 4m color scale 4 m 2 m 1 m 1 meter (3 feet) 2 meter (6 feet) 4 meter (12 feet)

23 Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: 1m, 2m, 4m color scale 1 meter (3 feet) 2 meter (6 feet) 4 meter (12 feet) slr/us48prvi/index.html

24 Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: 1m, 2m, 4m color scale slr/us48prvi/index.html 1 meter (3 feet) 2 meter (6 feet) 4 meter (12 feet)

25 Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: 1m, 2m, 4m color scale 1 meter (3 feet) 2 meter (6 feet) 4 meter (12 feet) /slr/us48prvi/index.html

26 Backups

27 Human Influence on Climate Carbon Dioxide Trends: 100yr lifetime Methane Trends Sulfate Trends Global Temperature Trends From M. Prather University of California at Irvine

28 The Ice Ages: Temperature, Sea Level Sea Level varies by 100m (300ft) from glacial to Interglacial periods Paleo data used to estimate radiative energy climate forcing (doubled CO 2 = 4 W/m 2 Climate Model uses paleo forcing to predict temperature change and compares well to Paleo temperature data. Hansen, 2007

29 Climate System Energy Balance

30 Human Radiative Forcing of Earth's Energy Balance & Climate IPCC, 2007

31 How does the Earth Respond? Forces Acting On the Earth System Earth System Response IMPACTS Feedback Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

32 Major Climate System Elements Carbon Cycle Water & Energy Cycle Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Chaotic Nonlinear Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics

33 Summer Temperature Anomalies Climate of the Southeast U.S. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability, 2013

34 What is Climate? Climate is the long term average of weather. 14-day weather prediction limit: but no known limit to climate prediction. Weather data accuracy is 1 degree, but climate accuracy is 0.1 degree: a factor of 10 tougher measurement. Climate is much more than weather. ocean circulation, sea level, salinity biosphere, greenhouse gas chemistry, ice sheets, snow, sea-ice

35 Mean Temperatures Virginia Daily Means March 2010 Virginia Monthly Means March Global Annual Means F 49.9 F 58.2 F 56.9 F F 35.5 F F 40.3 F F

36 Where does March 2012 Fit? Virginia Monthly Means March F 55.5F March 2012 Record Heat in Virginia (117 years) 40.3 F F F

37 Rules of Natural Variability Its everywhere and occurs on all time and space scales in weather and climate Its largest at the smallest space/time scales. Yorktown temperature 7pm, 3/31/11 Its smallest at the largest space/time scales. Global average for 2000 to 2010 Dynamics dominates shortest time/space scales. Cold fronts, thunderstorms, hurricanes Energetics dominates largest time/space scales Seasons, ice ages, human carbon dioxide emissions

38 Seasonal Temperature Variability: Summer Hansen and Sato, 2011