Towards a Greener Southern California: Regional Transportation Plan/ Sustainable Communities Strategy

Transcription

1 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION of GOVERNMENTS Towards a Greener Southern California: Regional Transportation Plan/ Sustainable Communities Strategy Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director

2 2 SCAG Quick Facts Nation s largest Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) and Council of Governments (COG) Ventura Los Angeles Orange San Bernardino Riverside Imperial 6 counties, 191 cities and over 18 million residents Governed by a Regional Council of 84 local elected officials 17 th largest economy in the world 9,000 lane miles of freeway 4 major airports Nation s global gateway for trade

3 What We ll Cover Demographic and Market Trends Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) SCAG s Future Planning Activities 3

4 Part 1 Demographic and Market Trends Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) SCAG s Future Planning Activities 4

5 Anticipated Future Growth 5

6 Population Growth by County 4 Million New Residents by

7 Where is Population Growth Coming From? SCAG Region 1,651,392 (97.3%) Southern California Sources of Population Growth, ,697,351 (100.0 %) 45,959 (2.7%) Births (less) Deaths Domestic Foreign Migration Total Increase Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year 7 7

8 Shift in Ages of the Population: SCAG Region Population By A ge Group % % % 53% 11% % Population (millions) Note: Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding Source: US Census Bureau, SCAG 8

9 Shift in Ages of the Population: SCAG Region Age 65+ Population will double 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 0 y y SCAG Region California Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, Sacramento, CA, December

10 Housing: U.S. Demographic Trends Household Type HH with Children 48% 32% 26% HH without Children 52% 68% 74% Single-person HH 13% 31% 34% Source: Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah. 10

11 Housing: U.S. Market Trends National Preference Existing Unit Type Total Share SCAG Region Attached 38% 42% Apartments 14% 37% Condos, Coops 9%* 24% Townhouses 15% 39% Detached 62% 58% Small Lot (<7,000 sf) 37% 60% Large Lot (>7,000 sf) 25% 40% Sources: National housing preference based on a low range of surveys reviewed by Arthur C. Nelson Leadership in a New Era, Journal of the American Planning Association, Fall 2006; existing per California Department of Finance, 2009 *Toll Brothers shifting product mix to 15% condominium; WSJ 12/06 11

12 Implications of Changing Demographics Increased demand in close-in suburb, central cities, and communities with shopping, health services, church and transportation The region may have surplus of large-lot homes and increase in demand for small lot homes Increase in demand for health care and social services Pressures on tax revenues Implications on transportation and community design 12 12

13 Part 2 Demographic and Market Trends Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) SCAG s Future Planning Activities 13

14 Planning Background - AB 32 Reduce GHG by 174 MMT by 2020 High Global Warming Potential Gas Measures, 11.6% Sustainable Forests, 2.9% Industrial Measures (Not Covered by Cap & Trade), 0.6% Recycling & Waste, 0.6% CA Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Standards, 18.2% SB 375 Regional Transportation- Regional Related GHG Light-Duty Targets, Vehicle Related 2.9% GHG T argets, 2.9% High Speed Rail, 0.6% Additional Reductions from Capped Sectors, 19.8% Goods Movement, 2.1% Low Carbon Fuel Standards, 8.6% Industrial Measures (Cap & Trade), 0.2% Million Solar Roofs, 1.2% Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles, 0.8% Vehicle Efficiency Measures, 2.6% Renewables Portfolio Standard, 12.2% Energy Efficiency, 15.1% 14 14

15 15 Planning Background - Purpose of SB 375 Achieve specified GHG emission reduction targets in 2020 and 2035 from autos and light duty trucks through land use and related policies Implement AB 32 (a small portion) Integrate RTP with other regional plans and processes Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA)

16 Planning Background - Purpose of SB 375 Part of AB 32 and enacted in SB 375 Southern California s Long Range Transportation Plan must include a plan to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Target 8% by % by 2035 Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions must be included in a Sustainable Communities Strategy

17 Planning Background Roles & Responsibilities of MPOs Prepare and adopt an Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as part of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Develop methodologies and technical tools to estimate GHG emissions Adopt public participation plan Conduct informational meetings and public hearings Develop and adopt a framework to address intra-regional relationships for sub-regional SCS, if necessary Develop overall guidelines & create public participation plans for sub-regional SCS, if necessary Develop an Alternative Planning Strategy (APS), if necessary 17

18 Timeline September 2009 Regional Targets Advisory Committee set targets for regions December 2011 Bottoms up development with cities, stake holders and elected officials Draft RTP/SCS released for review and public comment April 2012 Regional Council Adopted RTP/SCS 18 18

19 RTP/SCS Bottom-Up Development Process Cities met with to update and develop land use and SED forecasts 175 Data gathering sessions & planning workshops in Regional Council and Joint Policy Committee Meetings in Policy Committee and Subcommittee Meetings in 2011, including CEHD, EEC, T C, RT P Subcommittee, High-Speed Rail Subcommittee 30 Technical Committee Meetings in 2011, including Aviation TAC, P&P TAC, Transit TAC, Subregional Coordinators, Transportation Conformity Working Group 40 19

20 Recently adopted Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy Almost $525 billion in investments to improve the SCAG region s transportation system through 2035 $263 billion in capital investments $217 billion in system operations, preservation, and maintenance $45 billion in debt service to advance construction of projects

21 Highways and Arterials Summary Image courtesy Metro 2012 LACMTA

22 Goods Movement

23 Transportation Demand Management Active Transportation

24 Rail Transit Investments

25 Rail Transit Investments Today 25

26 Rail Transit Investments

27 Rail Transit Investments

28 Future HQTAs (2035) 28 28

29 Focusing Growth within the HQTAs 3% of total land area 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 97% 50% 40% 30% 20% 51% 53% HQTAs 10% Non-HQTAs 0% New Housing New Employment 29

30 Reversing the Past Trend 80% 70% 60% 66% 68% 50% 40% Single Family Multifamily 30% 20% 10% 34% 32% 0%

31 Benefits from the RTP/SCS Mobility Economy Location Efficiency Cost Effectiveness 31

32 Mobility Reduce Per Capita Travel Delay by 1/ minutes minutes 32

33 Economy generated each year on average with the Plan Not just construction workers, but jobs in all sectors of the economy 33

34 Location Efficiency: Projected Growth in Households to High Quality Transit Areas Over Projected TWICE household as many growth households will WITHOUT live in high quality transit Proposed Final opportunity RTP/SCS areas Plan. WITH Plan. 34

35 Cost Effectiveness: $2.90 Return for Every $1.00 Spent 35

36 Additional Benefits Land Consumption DECREASE by over 400 SQUARE MILES Household Savings annual SAVINGS of $3,400 per household in 2035 Heath Outcome REDUCE health incidences by 95,000 in

37 Part 3 Demographic and Market Trends Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) SCAG s Future Planning Activities 37

38 38 3 Key RTP/SCS Strategies allocate ONLY 13% capital investment to highways focus over 50% growth within 3% land area FROM 7:3 single- vs. multifamily units TO 3:7

39 39 Compass Blueprint Technical assistance to local governments for planning consistent with the 2012 RTP/SCS Demonstrate the local benefits of planning consistent with regional goals Create models to replicate throughout the region Livability, Mobility, Prosperity, Sustainability Planning Services & Tools Public Involvement Local Climate Action Plans Return-on-Investment Analysis Economic Development Strategies Urban Design Solutions Transit Studies Code Amendments Photo & Video Visualizations Multi-modal Transportation Modeling Parking Analysis Financing Strategies Scenario Planning

40 Compass Blueprint Demonstration Projects 133 Projects with a total SCAG contribution of $ 14 million Projects in all six SCAG region counties 86 different lead agencies 76 SCAG member jurisdictions Average project cost valued at $125, Calexico Gateway Sustainable South Bay Laguna Niguel WRCOG NEV Plan Downtown Fontana Ventura FWY Cap

41 Compass Blueprint Demonstration Projects Los Angeles Planning Dept Expo Line Station Visions The Expo Line presents opportunities for increased connectivity and economic development Compact, walkable transit-oriented development 800 acres Urban infill strategy Opportunity sites and prototypes Video fly-through visualizations Detailed land-use scenarios Regulatory changes 41

42 Compass Blueprint Demonstration Projects WRCOG Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV) Plan Proposed near-term and long-term low speed routes for NEV network: Riverside Corona Norco Moreno Valley Create NEV charging stations Provide separately marked parking Action plan and program Opportunities and constraints map 42

43 43 Compass Blueprint Demonstration Projects La Mirada Imperial Hwy Corridor Specific Plan 40,000-60,000 vehicles per day travel along the three-mile Imperial Highway corridor Developed a Specific Plan covering: 71 acres 433 dwelling Mixed-use land use policies Transit-oriented development Pedestrian and bicycle planning Parking districts Infrastructure plans for water system, wastewater, and storm drain systems

44 Compass Blueprint Demonstration Projects 44

45 New Sustainability Program Implementation Assistance for SCS Green Region Program Expanded Compass Blueprint Active Transportation General Plan Update Assistance Member Benefit 45

46 Thank You! 46 46