Market Shifts: New Infrastructure in the Northeast
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1 Market Shifts: New Infrastructure in the Northeast Colette Breshears, Natural Gas & Infrastructure Intelligence April 5, 2017 US: EU:
2 Agenda Genscape who are we & who am I Where we ve been Swelling production in new areas of the country Dramatic price crash in 2014 Where we are and where we re going Production now on the rebound Demand growth Pipeline reversals and build-out shifting supply/demand balances What does this mean for Ohio? Rover, Leach XPress, NEXUS 2
3 Genscape: Data and Intelligence for Global Commodity and Energy Markets Spring Rock Produc/on Genscape is the originator of independently measured oil storage volumes, pipeline flows, refinery and power plant electricity output. Provides fundamentals-driven market intelligence Subscribers have access to market data - Cushing Volumes 48 hours before EIA data - 30-min flow updates and real-@me alerts on key pipelines Founded in 2011, acquired by Genscape in April 2012 Detailed 5-year Natural Gas, Oil and NGL Produc@on forecasts for the U.S. and Canada Genscape s analy@cal forecas@ng arm Team that is rapidly growing, with various industry backgrounds ranging from petroleum engineers to traders 3
4 Supply Shift ð Infrastructure Shift US: EU:
5 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Historically where we were Winter 2008/2009 Production (Bcf/d) ~60 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 5
6 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Historically where we were Winter 2008/2009 Production (Bcf/d) ~60 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 6
7 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Historically where we were EIA,
8 Infrastructure Shifts: Demand Growth what changed Residential and Commercial Use Heating, Cooling, Cooking etc. Electric Generation Natural Gas fired power plants Supplanting coal and fuel oil plants Industrial and Chemical Use Metals, Plastics, Pharmaceutical Methanol generation Natural Gas Vehicles Very low demand source Mexican Exports Growth in all the same areas as the US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Global export opportunities Population Growth Industrial Growth Export Growth 8
9 Infrastructure Shifts: Demand Growth what changed EIA,
10 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now what changed Winter 2016/2017 Production (Bcf/d) ~79 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 10
11 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now what changed Winter 2016/2017 Production (Bcf/d) ~79 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 11
12 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now where we are Winter 2016/2017 Production (Bcf/d) ~79 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 12
13 2014 price crash ð lingering effects 13 Market Shifts: New Infrastructure US: in +1 the 502 Northeast EU: , 4089 Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved. 2016, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.
14 With Price, Rigs Dropped Oil And Horizontal Rigs were at an all time high in Oct 2014; total rigs now recovering at levels last seen in Mar Lower 48 Rigs 600 Total Rigs by Play Gas Oil Horizontal Permian Haynesville Marcellus/Utica Eagle Ford Bakken Source: Spring Rock, Rig Data 14
15 With Price, Rigs Dropped: Rigs (still) lost since October Out of 1,252 rigs dropped since October 2014, 724 rigs were horizontal (~58%) Oil -1, Gas Rig Count Change Since 10/24/14 Source: RigData, Spring Rock 15
16 With Price, Rigs Drop: Forecast for the lower Rigs 323 Rigs Forecast Peaking this summer after adding 386 rigs in a year At current forward prices Gas Rigs Oil Rigs Source: RigData, Spring Rock 16
17 With Rig Recovery, Production Recovers: Production forecast for Yr/Yr Decline Vs. Expected 2017 Decline (MMcf/d) , , Oil Lower ,887 Associated Gas ,395 At current forward prices Data from 3/27/17 Source: Spring Rock 17
18 What does this mean for Ohio and the Utica? 18 Market Shifts: New Infrastructure US: in +1 the 502 Northeast EU: , 4089 Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved. 2016, Genscape Incorporated. All rights reserved.
19 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now and Future Infrastructure is the balancing force between supply and demand Reversals: low-hanging fruit - almost all complete New Projects: greenfield pipelines and laterals Supplement reversals Development of new markets EPP,
20 Infrastructure Shifts: What does this mean for Ohio? +14 Bcf! Project Name Owner Company Start Date State Status Capacity Northern Supply Access Project Boardwalk Pipeline Partners Apr-17 OH/IN/KY/TN/MS/LA 284 Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) Zone 3 Addi/onal Capacity Tallgrass Energy Partners May-17 OH/IN/IL Announced 150 ET Rover Pipeline Phase I - Supply Laterals and Mainline Energy Transfer Partners Jul-17 OH Under Early Construc/on 3,250 Access South Spectra Energy Nov-17 OH/MS Under Early Construc/on 320 Adair Southwest Project Spectra Energy Nov-17 OH/KY Under Early Construc/on 200 Appalachian Lease Project (TEAL) Phase 1 Spectra Energy Nov-17 OH EA/EIS Issued 638 ET Rover Pipeline Phase II - Michigan Market Segment Energy Transfer Partners Nov-17 OH/MI Cer/ficate Issued 1,300 Leach XPress Columbia Pipeline Group Nov-17 PA/OH/WV Under Early Construc/on 1,500 Lebanon Extension Project Spectra Energy Nov-17 OH/PA Under Early Construc/on 102 NEXUS Gas Transmission Spectra Energy Nov-17 OH/MI EA/EIS Issued 1,500 Abandonment and Capacity Restora@on Project Kinder Morgan Dec-17 OH/KY EA/EIS Issued - B-System Project Columbia Pipeline Group Sep-18 OH Pre-Filed TBD Central Corridor Pipeline Extension Duke Energy Sep-18 OH Announced 168 ANR East Project TransCanada Corpora/on Nov-18 OH/IN/MI Announced 2,000 Appalachian Lease Project (TEAL) Phase 2 Spectra Energy Nov-18 OH EA/EIS Issued 312 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - SEML Modifica@on TransCanada Corpora@on Nov-18 OH/LA Open Season Completed 190 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - Tie-Line Expansion TransCanada Corpora@on Nov-18 OH/MI/IN Open Season Completed 558 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - Willow Run Horsepower Expansion TransCanada Corpora@on Nov-18 OH/MI Open Season Completed 140 Mountaineer Xpress Columbia Pipeline Group Nov-18 OH/PA/WV Filed 2,700 Sweden Valley Dominion Transmission Dec-19 OH/PA Announced 120 Buckeye XPress Columbia Pipeline Group Nov-20 OH Open Season Completed 700 Midwest Market Access Project (MMAP) TransCanada Corpora/on Nov-20 OH/IN Open Season
21 Infrastructure Shifts: Integration with Production Northeast production is extremely dependent on infrastructure export capacity - So much supply it can t escape However, production is still independent of capacity 28,000 More closely linked to local hub prices and 24,000 E&P Behavior 20,000 at 3/27/17 forward prices Incremental MMcf/d since mid ,000 12,000 8,000 Rock Springs Leidy Southeast Full Leidy Southeast Par@al OPEN Phase I 4,000 TEAM Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Produc/on Forecast vs.pipeline Expansions callouts represent significant projects, includes Genscape s es@mated start dates Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Lebanon West II AIM Sep-15 Nov-15 REX Z3 Expansion Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Northern Access 2016, Rover Phase 2 Leach XPress, Rover Phase 1 Gibraltar NEXUS Ohio Valley Connector Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Mountaineer, Empire North TEAL Nov-17 Atlan@c Sunrise MARC II Jan-18 Diamond East Mar-18 May-18 Cons@tu@on PennEast, Appalachia to Market Export, no demand Export + Demand Regional Produc@on Growth Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 21
22 Infrastructure Shifts: What does this mean for Ohio? Rover Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: July/November 2017 (our EISD currently November 17/March 18) Risk to stated date: High construction Capacity: 3,250 MMcf/d (Phase 1: 1.95 Bcf/d; Phase 2: 1.3 Bcf/d) Shippers: Ascent (1100), Antero (800), Range (400), Southwestern (200), Gulfport (150), EQT (150), Rice (100), Eclipse (100), unknown (100) Nexus Does not have Certificate Stated In Service: November 2017 (our EISD currently January 2018, moving out) Risk to stated date: High lack of FERC Quorum HUGE factor Capacity: 1,500 MMcf/d Shippers: Union Gas (150), Enbridge (150), Columbia Gas of Ohio (50), DTE Gas, DTE Electric, CNX, Noble, Chesapeake 22 Leach XPress Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: November 2017 Risk to stated date: Medium-High Capacity: 1,500 MMcf/d Shippers: Kaiser Francis (400), Ascent (400), Range (300), Noble (200), Gulfport (100), Uncontracted (100) REX Zone 3 (online)
23 Infrastructure Shifts: Rover 23
24 Infrastructure Shifts: Challenges for Pipelines Permitting Federal: FERC, USACE State: DEQ, DEP, etc. County: Township City Landowner Protest and Legal Action Public Opinion Construction Eminent Domain Weather Supplies Protest and Legal Action $ $$ $$$$ 24 Source: FERC filings, Genscape flight
25 Fin Q&A Incremental MMcf/d since mid ,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 Leidy Southeast TEAM Jul-14 Sep-14 Leidy Southeast Full OPEN Phase I Nov-14 Rock Springs Jan-15 Produc/on Forecast vs. Pipeline Expansions callouts represent significant projects, includes Genscape s es@mated start dates Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Lebanon West II AIM Sep-15 Nov-15 REX Z3 Expansion Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Northern Access 2016, Rover Phase 2 Leach XPress, Rover Phase 1 Gibraltar NEXUS Ohio Valley Connector Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Mountaineer, Empire North TEAL Nov-17 Atlan@c Sunrise MARC II Jan-18 Diamond East Mar-18 May-18 Cons@tu@on PennEast, Appalachia to Market Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Export, no demand Export + Demand Regional Produc@on Growth 25
26 Closing Slide To follow up, request a free trial or learn more, visit: genscape.com/natural-gas-infrastructure-intelligence Contact Me: Colette Breshears Natural Gas & Infrastructure Intelligence cbreshears@genscape.com (best) Skype: cbreshears_1 AIM: colettebreshears@gmail.com USA Louisville Genscape, Inc Garvin Place Louisville, KY Europe Amsterdam Genscape International, Inc. Damrak 20A 1012 LH Amsterdam The Netherlands info@genscape.com US: EU:
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