Vision California will

Transcription

1 Vision California

2 Vision California will 1. Compile Regional and State-Wide Data 2. Develop Powerful Analytical Tools 3. Produce Scenarios and Metrics 4. Analyze the Benefits of HSR Investment

3 1. Compile Regional and State-Wide Data 29% - 26% 60% 53% - 65% - 60% 71% 29% - 49% 61% % % Population change, Jobs change, % 40% 86% 102% 28% 47% 16% 27% 31% 41% 30% 40%

4 2. Develop Powerful Analytical Tools Rapid Fire Model Map-Based Tool

5 Map-Based Model Place Types Scenarios & Outputs VMT Travel Mode GHG Emissions Air Pollution Energy Use Water Use Infrastructure Cost Household Costs Health Impacts GIS Model

6 Place-Based Rapid Fire Model Rapid Fire Environmental Land Consumption Emissions Pollutant Emissions Building Energy & Water Consumption Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled Gallons of Fuel Consumed Fuel Cost Emissions Fiscal Infrastructure Cost Household Costs for Utilities and Transportation

7 3. Produce Scenarios and Metrics Trend Blueprints

8 Scenario Concepts 1. Trend Business as usual base case 2. Blueprint Future Quilt of regional blueprints/plans 3. Ultimate Future Most Compact/Transit-Oriented

9 Environmental Greenhouse Gas Emissions Air Pollution Water and Energy Consumption Scenario Modeling Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled Transit, Walk, Bike Mode share Vehicle Emissions Fiscal State and Regional Infrastructure Cost Household/Business Costs Social Housing Diversity & Affordability Access to Jobs and Services Public Health Impacts Cost of Living Household Costs

10 4. Analyze the Benefits of HSR Investment

11 Vision California Goals 1. Quantify the Relationship b/t HSR and Varying Statewide Land Use Patterns 2. Expand Collaboration b/t HSR and other Agencies and Stakeholders

12 Linkage to Regional Transit Systems

13 Prioritized Development Areas SCAG Compass Regional Vision Illustrative Transit Nodes MTC/ABAG Priority Development Areas, 2009 SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Areas

14 Land Use Impacts on HSR Ridership

15 Rapid Fire Model Preliminary Results

16 California Rapid Fire Scenarios Place-Based Policy Options Rapid Fire Trend Green A1 Business as Usual A2 B2 C2 Green Policy Only Mixed Growth/ Green Policy Smart Growth/ Green Policy Trend Mixed Smart Land Use Options

17 California Rapid Fire Scenarios Place-Based Policy Options Rapid Fire Trend Green A1 Business as Usual A2 B2 C2 Green Policy Only Mixed Growth/ Green Policy Smart Growth/ Green Policy Trend Mixed Smart Land Use Options

18 Oakland Uptown

19 Same

20 Stapleton

21 same

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27 California Rapid Fire Scenarios Land Use Mix for Growth Increment ( ) Urban Compact Standard 5% 25% 10% 35% 70% 55% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy

28 Housing Product Mix Growth Increment ( ) 14% 16% 16% 54% Multifamily Attached Small Lot Large Lot 34% 30% 26% 10% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy

29 Housing Product Mix 2050 Total 24% Multifamily 29% 11% 20% 45% Attached Small Lot Large Lot 14% 23% 34% Business As Usual Smart Growth/Green Policy

30 Housing Choice Meeting Diverse Housing Needs 77% 17% 11% 30% 41% 26% 17% 28% 23% Singles living alone Other Households Married couples without children Married couples with children

31 Green Policy Package 2050 Polices Transportation Buildings Power Generation 3x Fleet Efficiency (54mpg) 50% Cleaner Fuels 80% More Energy Efficient 70% More Water Efficient 60% Renewable Power Portfolio

32 California 2050 GHG Emissions Getting to 80% Below CO 2 e MMT Buildings Travel Trend 2050 BAU + Smart Growth Vehicle Efficiency Low Carbon Fuels + Bldg Efficiency + Renewable Power 80% Below 1990 Joe DiStefano October 2009

33 A1/A2 v C2 Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi 2 ) More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined 5,533 3,800 square miles saved 1,760 Business As Usual Smart Growth

34 A1/A2 v C2 Infrastructure Cost for New Growth For New Growth to 2050 $24,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $4.3 Billion/Year Dollars Billions $377.8 $194 Billion Saved* $183.3 Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and dry utilities Business As Usual Smart Growth

35 A1/A2 v C2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in ,500 Fewer Miles Per Household 28,433 16,909 Flickr: trash-photography Business As Usual Smart Growth

36 A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050 Equivalent to more than 4 years of oil imports to the US Gallons Billions Billion Gallons Saved Business As Usual Smart Growth

37 A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Cost Cost Per Household in 2050 $4,500 Annual Savings Per Household in 2050 $6,952 $2,494 Flickr: TheTruthAbout Business As Usual Smart Growth

38 A1 v C2 Building Energy Energy Use Per Household in million BTU Annual Savings Per Household in 2050 BTU Millions Flickr: arbyreed Business As Usual Smart Growth

39 A1 v C2 Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050 Water Savings the Equivalent 2/3 of Lake Tahoe Acre Feet Millions Million Acre Feet Saved Business As Usual Smart Growth

40 A1 v C2 Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050 More than $13,000 Savings Per Household in 2050 $ 29,200 Home Energy & Water Auto Fuel + Ownership $ 15,800 Flickr: Diablo_Solar Business As Usual Smart Growth

41 A1 v C2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050 Emissions offset by 106,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering 2/3 of California. Passenger Vehicles Buildings MMT CO 2 e Reduced/Year New York Times 27 Business As Usual Smart Growth

42 Vision California