Energy and poverty. IEF Seminar December, 8 and 9

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1 Energy and poverty IEF Seminar December, 8 and 9 Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC President Association for the Development of Energy in Africa

2 World energy consumption (toe/capita) North America Europ & F.S.U Latin America 1.0 North Africa 1.0 SS Africa 0.1 R. South Africa 2.7 Middle East 2.7 South East Asia 1.0

3 Commercial energy consumption and income in Commercial energy consumption per capita (toe) Bahrain UAE 10 Kuwait Source : AIE Energy balances of OECD & Non OECD countries S 112*2 December 2008 Kazakhstan Russia Ukrainian Libya Bulgaria Iran S Africa Venezuela Malaysia Poland Lebanon China Mexico Jordan Syria Brazil I.Coast Algeria Nigeria Tunisia Egypt Togo Colombia India 0 Senegal Angola S. Arabia Argentina Brunei Hungary South Korea Malta Cyprus N Zealand Spain Greece Singapore Income per capita ($) Israel France Germany Japan Italy UK Finland Canada Australia Denmark Netherlands Switzerland USA Norway

4

5 Energy consumption in Africa Mtoe Electricity Electricité (primary) primaire Coal Charbon Natural Gaz naturel gas Oil Pétrole Source : BP Statistical Review AF004 October 2009

6 The energy divides North and South Africa: two specific areas Divide between Africa and the rest of the world (15% of world population for 3% of world energy consumption) 7% Divide between North Africa-South Africa and the rest of Africa 3% Divide between urban and rural areas: Urban areas look like energy Region energy consumption proportion Energy barriers

7 Even though Africa, China and India have a comparable population profile, they show diffent oil industry pattern Two situations in Africa: Oil producing regions ( North Africa, Gulf of Guinea) and NOPAC* *Non Oil Producing African Countries Oil production, consumption and export Introduction to Africa oil industry Africa China India Production (Kb/d) Consumption (Kb/d) Consumption per capita (T/cap) West Africa North Africa Reserves Mb 65 Production Kb/d Consumption Kb/d 1508 Total energy consumed per capita Toe/cap 0.7 Reserves Mb 36 Production Kb/d Consumption Kb/d 485 Total energy consumed per capita Toe/cap 0.14 Central Africa Reserves Mb 16 Production Kb/d Consumption Kb/d 118 Total energy consumed per capita Toe/cap 0.1 South Africa East Africa Reserves Mb 0 Production Kb/d 0 Consumption Kb/d 270 Total energy consumed per capita Toe/cap 0.09 Reserves Mb 0 Production Kb/d 202 Consumption Kb/d 582 Total energy consumed per capita Toe/cap 2.38

8 Africa: a strategic oil producer European Union North America North Africa 49% of the production in North Africa Asia - Pacific Gulf of Guinea 20% of the production in Nigeria Angola: a giant producer with production amouting 18.5% of the continent production Africa s share in world production Oil exports (proportional flow) Regional share of the total continent s production

9 Refining and petroleum products trading in Africa Upstream: - Limited refining infrastructure North Demand 66 MT 51 % Production 82 MT 61 % - Existing refineries are very often obsolete - African refineries are crippled by costs due to their low capacities Downstream: - The low consumption forces a slow and costly distribution by road - Costs are high and the prices are subsidized. Refining in Nigeria Capacity 22 MT Production 8 MT West/Central Demand 23 MT 18 % Production 15 MT 13 % South Demand 30 MT 28 % Production 30 MT 28 % East Demand 11 MT 8 % Production 3 MT 3 %

10 Coal: Production and consumption Consumption of the Coal produced in 2008* 251** Mt South Africa Coal Figures Primary energy mix proportion: 82.6 % Proved reserves: 54 Bt Production : 251 Mt R/P ratio: > 200 years ESKOM Number of coal-fired power stations : 13 out of 20 SA coal-based electricity proportion: 90 % Liquid from coal/ Total liquid: 1/3 ESKOM (50 %) Exports (30 %) Sasol (17 %) Others*** (2 %) Production and consumption of coal in South Africa have grown steadily over the past 25 years at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent Source: **SACMA (South Africa Collieries Managers Association) /Presentation «ESKOM recovery plan» by Koos Jordan, June 2009 Sasol Annual report (produces 43 Mt pa for gasification) * The production in 2008 was 251 Mt but the actual consumption in 2008 was 266 Mt as 15 Mt of dumps were used *** Others include Households, Metallurgical, Transport,

11 Natural Gas in Africa Gas consumption and production in Africa Europe Africa is an important gas producer (7.9 % of world reserve and 7% of world production) Nevertheless all the regions don t display the same gas profile: West Africa Reserves TM3 5.2 Production GM3/y 29.5 Consumption GM3/y 12.1 North Africa Reserves TM3 7.8 Production GM3/y Consumption GM3/y West and North Africa are the main gas producing areas - South Africa is a net gas importer Europe North America Gas export flow Export zone Central Africa Reserves TM3 0.3 Production GM3/y 2.3 Consumption GM3/y 2.3 South Africa Reserves TM3 0.1 Production GM3/y 2.9 Consumption GM3/y 4.2 East Africa Reserves TM3 0.2 Production GM3/y 2.1 Consumption GM3/y 0.9

12 Hydroelectricity in Africa Potential

13 Situation Large consumption of biomass (wood, residues...) desertification health problems time lost by women and children Lack of electricity in towns (outages, blackouts) in rural areas Need for better availability of oil products storage tanks roads!! Are renewables a solution?

14 Recommendations C3 Construction of large power plants Facilities for electricity distribution to the poors LPG Use of Natural Gas C2 COST Construction of oil products storage Small electricity generators Refineries adaptation New standards for buildings C1 Improved cooking stoves Governance (EITI) Improvement of oil E/P contracts DIFFICULTY F1 F2 F3

15 Cooperation interconnections of grids will allow better use of power generation capacities cooperation for refining facilities can allow savings

16 Do not forget education lack of education before the independence lack of skilled manpower need for education/training The African Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

17 BP Statistical Review of Word Energy 2009 PetroSA Annual Report 2008, Operations Review United States Energy Information Agency (EIA.DOE), Country Analysis Briefs/ South Africa SACMA (South Africa Collieries Managers Association), Presentation ESKOM Recovery Plan by Koos Jordan Sasol 2009 Annual Review Department of Minerals and Energy (dme.gov.za), Electricity Journal Energy for Africa, N 5 May 2008, Energy in South Africa by Jean Pierre FAVENNEC ESKOM, Power Stations and pumped storage scheme SAPIA (South Africa Petroleum Industry Association), Annual Report 2008 What future for Coal in South Africa?, by Doug Low, August The future of Coal in ESKOM S Energy mix, by Rob Lines, January 2007 South Africa Oil & Gas Report, Q3 2009, Oil demand in South Africa is forecast to rise from an estimated 551,000b/d in 2008 to 570,000b/d in 2013 PBMR (Pebble Bed Modular Reactor) Website Bibliography

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