GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD (GSPL)

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1 COMPANY UPDATE Sumit Pokharna Summary table (Rs mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales 11,732 11,598 10,365 Growth (%) EBIDTA 10,721 10,648 9,722 EBIDTA margin (%) PBT 8,258 7,676 6,438 Net profit 5,375 5,067 4,250 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) CEPS (Rs) BV (Rs/Share) DPS (Rs) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Net Cash (debt) (4,644) (3,243) (1,162) NWC (Days) (1) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) P/E (x) P/BV (x) P/CEPS (X) Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD (GSPL) PRICE: RS.62 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE TARGET PRICE: RS.69 FY15E P/E: 8.2X The Supreme Court has directed the union government to supply natural gas to Gujarat at the price it supplies to Delhi and Mumbai. Accordingly, the Centre has started supplying gas under the APM from 1st Dec'13. As per the ministry's guidelines, GAIL India will supply 6.4 mmscmd of domestic gas to Gujarat for supply to City Gas Distribution companies (CNG and PNG). If GAIL fixes Dahej in Bharuch as the delivery point, the gas delivery would be easier due to pipeline network connection between Petronet LNG and GSPL. This will result in higher gas volumes for GSPL in short to medium term, we opine. We believe the full benefit of higher gas transmission volume will be reflected in Q4FY14 and onwards. GSPL's management believes that the company's gas transmission volume has bottomed out and it doesn't expect to fall below the current level of ~ mmscmd, given the fact that falling Krishna-Godavari Basin D6 block's (KGD6) volume is expected to find support at the current level. However, potential uptick in gas volumes is expected from FY2015E, led by incremental LNG imports which will augur well for the stock performance in the near term. We expect GSPL to transport ~22 MMSCMD of natural gas in FY14E and MMSCMD in FY15E. We expect GSPL to report an EPS of Rs.9.0 and cash EPS of Rs.12.5 for FY14E and similarly an EPS of Rs.7.55 and cash EPS of Rs.11.1 for FY15E. We recommend ACCUMULATE on GSPL with a revised target price of Rs. 69/Share (Rs.62 earlier), given inexpensive valuations at 8.2x PE based on FY2015E earnings. GSPL has invested Rs. 3.5 Bn in Gujarat Distribution Network Ltd (GDNL) for a 40% stake (GDNL holds 74% stake in Gujarat Gas). GSPL also holds 29% stake in GSPC Gas, which holds 60% stake in GDNL, thus effectively taking GSPL's stake in Gujarat Gas to 42.5%.We have not taken the valuation of the CGD business into consideration while valuing GSPL. Domestic gas supply Recently, RIL has indicated to boost natural gas output from KG-D6 block in the Q by repairing a third of the wells shut at its main gas field. RIL is mobilizing a drilling rig for the D1 & D3 fields (D1 & D3, the largest of the 18 gas discoveries in the KG-D6 block) to commence a three-well work-over programme. Work-over is the process of performing major maintenance or remedial treatment on an oil or gas well. Similarly, domestic gas production is expected to increase with the increase in gas production from ONGC's marginal fields. Bhatinda-Srinagar gas pipeline project update. Bhatinda-Srinagar gas pipeline (BSGP) project has seen some major delays in commissioning the work. This project will require an investment of Rs.8.8 Bn and got the approval ~ three years back. GSPL has yet to submit the 'Intend' and sign Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to pave way for land acquisition. However, the survey for laying the pipeline, simultaneously from Srinagar and Bhatinda, has already been done. In our previous updates, we have clearly highlighted that we expect delays in these projects. As these projects have long gestation period (along with uncertainty) so on a conservative basis we have not considered the same in our valuation. Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2

2 Key risk remains - margins to be capped at 12%post tax ROCE PNGRB has already stated its intent to cap the cross country natural gas pipeline returns at 12% post tax ROCE or 18.18% pretax ROCE. However due to lack of clarity from PNGRB, GSPL continues to charge such high tariffs for transportation of natural gas through its pipelines. Going forward the major growth in GSPL is expected to come from inter-state pipelines across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. But these projects will take next 4-5 years, Thus its returns are expected to be capped in the near term. Key highlights Supreme Court directed the center to supply gas at lower price - Ray of hope The Supreme Court directed the union government to supply gas to Ahmedabad at the price it supplies to Delhi and Mumbai (as per the Administered Price Mechanism). This was ordered "to enforce the right of equality", as the court felt that the masses in Gujarat were forced to pay more in an unjust manner. The Centre has started to supply CNG to Gujarat consumers under the APM from 1st Dec'13. We believe part of the costlier RLNG (USD$ 12-14/mmbtu) will be replaced with cheap domestic gas price (USD$ 4.2/mmbtu or ~USD$8.4/mmbtu from FY15E). State energy minister, has demanded that GAIL should make Dahej as the delivery point instead of Hazira-Suvali as the delivery point. As GSPL's high pressure gas grid is not connected to the CGD network of Hazira-Suvali, it is mostly impossible to receive gas from there. In such a case, if GAIL fixes Dahej (gas supply pressure is around 80 to 90 bars) in Bharuch as the delivery point, the gas delivery would be easier due to pipeline network connection between Petronet LNG terminal at Dahej and GSPL. This will result in higher gas volumes for GSPL in short to medium term. As per the ministry's guidelines, GAIL will get 6.4 mmscmd of domestic gas to supply to CGDs for supplying CNG for transport and PNG for domestic sector. Adani Gas has been allocated MMSCMD for Ahmedabad and 18,000 scm for Vadodara. GSPC gas has been allocated 0.58 MMSCMD, Sabarmati Gas 0.17 MMSCMD and others. GAIL has offered PMT (Panna-Mukta-Tapti fields) gas at the price of $4.2 and $4.5/mmBtU, against the present price of imported LNG at around US $ 18.8/ mmbtu. Bumpy-ride: Bhatinda-Srinagar gas pipeline project update Bhatinda-Srinagar gas pipeline (BSGP) project has seen some major delays in commissioning the work. This project will require an investment of Rs.8.8 Bn and got the approval ~ three years back. GSPL has yet to submit the 'Intend' and sign Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to pave way for land acquisition. However, the survey for laying the pipeline, simultaneously from Srinagar and Bhatinda, has already been done. In our previous updates, we have clearly highlighted that we expect delays in these projects and as these projects have long gestation period (along with uncertainty) so on a conservative basis we have not considered the same in valuations. Brief background BSGP project has been proposed to make possible round-the-clock LPG supply to Kashmir which faces frequent shortage of cooking gas in winters due to closure of Srinagar-Jammu highway. Once the project is completed, several districts namely Kathua, Jammu, Samba, Udhampur, Ramban, Islamabad (Anantnag) and Srinagar would get connected through the pipeline in the first phase. LNG re-gasification infrastructure will ensure gas supply in India The growth of the GSPL is tied in with the way India's gas supplies develop. We believe in the short-run the growth will be fueled by imported RLNG and in the longer-run it will be supported by both RLNG and domestic gas. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3

3 We have evaluated the potential LNG supply in India over the next few years FY13- FY20E. Based on this, we believe RLNG can provide India a solution to its rising gas demand and falling domestic gas production. We forecast a huge amount of new LNG liquefaction capacity to be added over the next few years. In the near term, we expect incremental RLNG supply from Kochi terminal. The following are the re-gasification terminals that are planned in the near future in India: India's RLNG capacity to boost significantly over medium to long term Existing and proposed LNG import capacity in India (mtpa) Existing Petronet-Dahej 10 Operational Shell-Hazira 5 Operational Capacity Expected Capex (mtpa) completion Rs. Bn Comments RGPPL-Dabhol 5 Operational Low utilization until breakwater facility is ready by Petronet-Kochi 5 Operational 45 Low utilization given delays in pipeline connectivity Total 25 Expansion/new projects GAIL, APGIC, GDF Suez (FSRU) 4 CY MoU signed between Kakinada Sea Ports Limited and APGDC Shell-Kakinada (FSRU) 5 CY Draft environmental impact assessment report submitted Petronet-Dahej 5 2HCY16 37 Second jetty to add 2 mtpa of capacity by May 2014 GSPC, Adani-Mundra 5 CY Consortium looking for a third partner Petronet-Gangavaram 5 CY Pre-project activities completed; short-listing of EPC contractors started Shell-Hazira 5 CY2017 Proposed expansion of existing terminal IOCL-Ennore 5 CY Leasing of land of Ennore Port Ltd. approved by Union Cabinet IOCL-Dhamra 5 CY MoU signed between IOC and Dhamra port company ONGC-Mangalore 5 CY MoU signed between ONGC and Mitsui to conduct feasibility studies HPCL, Shapoorji Pallonji-Chhara 5 54 Detailed feasibility study for technical and commercial viability underway GSPC, Swan Energy-Pipavav 5 FEED underway for an FSRU GSPL-Sikka 5 DFR contract awarded to Technip Total 59 Source: Company, Indian Petro. As on November 2013 Indian companies have signed several long-term contracts over the past two years Long-term LNG supply contracted by Indian companies (mn tons) Supply Period Price Date Company (mtpa) (years) linkage Comments GSPC Mar-13 BG Group Expected to start from 2015 PLNG Apr-13 United LNG 4 20 Henry Hub Signed preliminary agreement; binding contract by end-cy2013 May-09 Exxon Mobil Crude oil Supply from Gorgon LNG terminal beginning 2015 Jul-99 RasGas JCC crude Supply started from 2004 Total 12.9 GAIL Apr-13 Dominion Henry Hub Contracted liquefaction capacity from 2017 onwards Oct-12 Gazprom Crude oil Expected to start from Dec-11 Cheniere Henry Hub Supply from Sabine Pass terminal beginning 2017 Total 8.3 Source: Company, Industry data Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4

4 GAIL has so far locked in ~8 mtpa of long-term gas contracts that will land in India from In the short to medium term, we expect the domestic gas demand will be met mostly from imported RLNG. Currently, India imports more than a quarter of its natural gas requirements. As per projection, India will have ~ 59 MMTPA RLNG capacities by FY18 from its current level of 25 MMTPA capacities. Three cross-country gas pipelines In H1FY14, GSPL has received the crucial environmental nod from the government for three natural gas pipeline projects. GSPL, with its partners, is planning to invest ~Rs.125 Bn in FY13-FY15 to lay three cross-country gas transmission pipelines (~3995 Kms i.e Rs.38.2 Mn / Kms). These pipelines will travel through Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, the National Capital Region, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has granted authorization for setting up the pipeline, which will be laid from Mallavaram in Andhra Pradesh to Bhilwara in Rajasthan (1,611 km), Mehsana in Gujarat to Bhatinda in Punjab (1,688 km) and Bhatinda to Jammu (512 km). It will have capacity to carry ~ 95 MMSCMD of gas. The laying of three major gas pipelines will facilitate the development of networks leading to National Gas Grid. Initially, the Gujarat-to-Jammu & Kashmir pipeline is expected to carry 20 mmscmd of gas which would be gradually increased to 40 mmscmd. The consortium comprises of GSPL (52%), IOCL (26%), BPCL and HPCL (11% each). Key assumptions behind the earnings model of GSPL Gas transmission volumes: On a conservative basis, we have modeled gradual increase in gas transmission volumes of mmscmd in FY14E, mmscmd in FY15E and mmsmcd in FY16E. However, we expect a major decline in gas volumes in FY18E with the commissioning of RIL's petcoke gasification project, which will substitute the requirement of re-gasified LNG, currently used in its refineries. In the last few quarters, the gas sales volumes of the entire industry has fallen due to lower domestic gas supply and higher price of imported LNG. The same can be seen in the below mentioned chart. However, we believe the trend will reverse in the medium to long term. Gas transmission volume for the industry is falling Source: Company Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5

5 In Q2FY14, GSPL's gas transmission volume was down by 4.5% QoQ and by 26.0% YoY due to decline in RIL's KG gas production and lower acceptability of costlier RLNG by customers. In Q2FY14, RLNG prices were higher on account of both higher spot prices and weak currency. However, in Q3FY14 the currency has appreciated significantly we believe this will lower RLNG prices and will increase the RLNG acceptability. In the medium term, a favourable LNG price scenario (on back of new import facilities and opening up of LNG markets) will aid volume growth. Additionally we expect the cross country pipeline project helping the company in the long term (4-5 years) to significantly expand the business beyond Gujarat. Gas transportation tariffs: On a conservative basis, we have modeled gas transmission tariff of Rs /Scm in FY14E, Rs.1.144/Scm in FY15E and Rs /scm in FY16E. The expected higher tariffs in FY2014 reflect benefit from use-or-pay contracts. In Q2FY14, the implied tariff has fallen by 3.2% QoQ to Rs. 1.37/ MSCM. Key triggers for stocks: 1). Clarity about tariff 2). Commissioning of the gas transmission pipeline and 3). Ramp-up in gas supply We recommend ACCUMULATE on Gujarat State Petronet with a price target of Rs.69 Valuation & Recommendation We expect GSPL to transport ~22 MMSCMD of natural gas in FY14E and MMSCMD in FY15E. We expect GSPL to report an EPS of Rs.9.0 and cash EPS of Rs.12.5 for FY14E and similarly an EPS of Rs.7.55 and cash EPS of Rs.11.1 for FY15E. We recommend ACCUMULATE on GSPL with a revised target price of Rs. 69/Share (Rs.62 earlier), given inexpensive valuations at 8.2x PE based on FY2015E earnings. GSPL has invested Rs. 3.5 Bn in Gujarat Distribution Network Ltd (GDNL) for a 40% stake (GDNL holds 74% stake in Gujarat Gas). GSPL also holds 29% stake in GSPC Gas, which holds 60% stake in GDNL, thus effectively taking GSPL's stake in Gujarat Gas to 42.5%.We have not taken the valuation of the CGD business into consideration while valuing GSPL. FIIs holding has increased in the last few quarter (%) Source: BSE Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6

GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD (GSPL)

GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD (GSPL) COMPANY UPDATE Sumit Pokharna sumit.pokharna@kotak.com +91 22 6621 6313 GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD (GSPL) PRICE: RS.113 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE TARGET PRICE: RS.124 FY16E P/E: 10.7X Softening of RLNG

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