U.S. Natural Gas Markets Where Is It All Going to Go?
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1 U.S. Natural Gas Markets Where Is It All Going to Go? October 19, 217
2 Today s Agenda» Current Natural Gas Market Production Shifting gas flows Demand LNG, Power and Mexico Evolving values basis and price» Market Outlook Production New pipeline capacity Demand Rockies Canadian supplies Permian/Midcon» Where is it all going to go? 2
3 MMB/d U.S. Total Mb/d Permian MMb/d Production of Crude Oil and Natural Gas U.S. Crude Oil Production U.S. Crude Oil Production Permian Source: EIA/RBN 3
4 MMB/d Bcf/d U.S. Total Mb/d Permian MMb/d Production of Crude Oil and Natural Gas U.S. Crude Oil Production U.S. Lower U.S. 48 Crude Oil Dry Gas Production Production Permian Marcellus /Utica Source: EIA/RBN 4
5 BCF/D LNG Exports = Cheniere Sabine Pass Pipeline Deliveries to Cheniere s Sabine Pass LNG Source: Genscape 5
6 BCF/D Exports to Mexico: South Texas and West Texas 4.5 U.S. Natural Gas Exports to Mexico Source: EIA 6
7 Bcf/d Northeast Natural Gas Production vs. Demand Northeast Became a Net Production Region in Production Demand 1 5 7
8 MMCF/D Major Shift in Rockies Express Gas Flows REX East to West 3,5 3, Up 91 MMCF/D YTD 2,5 REX 2, 1,5 Up 977 MMCF/D Up 627 MMCF/D 1, 5 8
9 $/MMbtu $/MMbtu $/MMbtu $/MMbtu Northeast/Midwest Basis Trends vs Henry Hub $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 $. -$.1 -$.2 MichCon : $ : $. 217: -$.2 $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 $.1 $. -$.1 -$.2 Dawn : $ : $ : $ : -$ : -$ : -$.54 $.2 $.15 $.1 $.5 $. -$.5 -$.1 -$.15 -$.2 Chicago : $ : $. 217: -$.7 $.5 $. -$.5 -$1. -$1.5 -$2. -$2.5 Dominion South
10 Historical Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices & Forward Curve $/MMbtu $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5 $. History Forward Curve Source: CME/NYMEX 1
11 Natural Gas Production Forecast RBN Supply/Demand Methodology 1 Develop forward price scenario 2 Calculate Impact on Producer Economics 3 Estimate Producer Response 4 Compute Implications on..production Volume 5 Determine Market Response 11
12 $/Bbl $/MMbtu Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price Scenarios $75 Crude Oil: WTI Cushing $3.75 Natural Gas: Henry Hub $65 $55 $45 $35 $3.25 $2.75 $2.25 Advance Growth Cutback Advance Growth Cutback 12
13 Bcf/d Lower 48 Dry Gas Production Forecast Scenarios History / Advance Growth Cutback Scenario Bcf/d Per Year +6. Bcf/d Per Year Bcf/d Per Year Bcf/d Per Year
14 Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 14
15 Production (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback 3 Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 15
16 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback 36 Western Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 16
17 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Western Rockies Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 17
18 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Western Rockies Offshore Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 18
19 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Western Southeast Rockies Offshore Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 19
20 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Western Southeast Rockies Mid-Continent Offshore Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 2
21 Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) Production (Bcf/d) (Bcf/d) (Bcf/d) Regional Natural Gas Production Outlook Advance Growth Cutback Western Northeast Southeast Rockies Mid-Continent Offshore Texas Source: RBN (forecast) /PointLogic (historical) 21
22 Natural Gas Pipeline Projects--Northeast Midwest via Ohio (4.8) 22
23 MMcf/d Natural Gas Infrastructure Development East East- 1.7 Bcf/d Enbridge- Penn East Williams- Constitution 2, 1,5 1, Constitution Penn East
24 Bcf/d Natural Gas Infrastructure Development Atlantic EQT- Mountain Valley Dominion- Atlantic Coast Pipeline Williams- Atlantic Sunrise Atlantic Coast Mountain Valley Atlantic Sunrise 24
25 MMcf/d Natural Gas Infrastructure Development Gulf Kinder Morgan- SW Louisiana Supply Enbridge- Access South TransCanada/CPG- Leach/Rayne Xpress Mountaineer/Gulf Xpress Kinder Morgan- Broad Run Expansion 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Mountaineer/Gulf Xpress Broad Run Expansion SW. Louisiana Supply Leach/Rayne Xpress Access South 25
26 MMcf/d Natural Gas Infrastructure Development Midwest Energy Transfer- Rover NEXUS Midwest via Ohio (4.8) Enbridge- Lebanon Extension 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NEXUS Lebanon Extension Rover 26
27 MMcf/d Natural Gas Infrastructure Development Canada 6 National Fuel Gas- Northern Access National Fuel Gas- Empire North Expansion Northern Access Empire North Expansion
28 Bcf/d Bcf/d Marcellus/Utica Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions Gulf via Ohio MidWest (Ohio) South (Atlantic) East Canada Production (Growth) Northeast to Gulf Coast Production (Growth) Total 28
29 Displacement of Rover and Nexus Volumes Michcon Nexus Dawn Chicago SW Marcellus & Utica To the Gulf 29
30 More Rockies Gas West? 2. Rockies to NW (Ruby and NW Pipeline)» Kern River flows full into Southern California eliminating this as an outlet for incremental Rockies gas. Bcf/d » Rockies gas flows to NorCal and PNW has seen declines due to competitive Canadian flows and stagnant demand.. 3. Kern River Flows Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d 2. REX Flows East Rockies South» Southern flows to interconnecting California pipes have seen erosion as Midcon/Permian gas targets this premium market.» Best option for Rockies gas is still via REX which has significant west-toeast MVCs. 3
31 Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Canada Gas Is Holding Its Own Out West Western Canadian Inflows - Net Sumas Sumas Kingsgate Western Canadian Inflows KINGSGATE California Gas Fired Power Demand California.5. 31
32 Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Permian and Midcon Gas Chasing Markets 5. Midcon to Midwest Permian & Midcon Going West $. -$.1 -$.2 -$.3 -$.4 Waha Basis -$.5 Permian Going East to Texas Markets Permian Going to Mexico Flow Mexico Flow Southeast Flow East
33 BCF/D U.S. LNG Export Facilities and Outlook 25 Corpus (1-2) Freeport (1-3) Elba Island (1-6, 7-1) Cameron (1-3) Cove Pt Sabine (1-5) Low Exports High Exports High Export Scenario Expansions Cameron 4-5 Lake Charles 1-3 Corpus Christi 3 Sabine Pass 6 Cove Point Low Export Scenario Second Wave (Louisiana) Magnolia LNG/ LNG Ltd. Golden Pass 1-3/ Qatar Exxon Driftwood/ Tellurian Davant/ Louisiana LNG Pointe a la Hache & Lake Charles / Venture Global Monkey Island / SCT&E Cameron / G2 LNG Venice/ CE FLNG Second Wave (Texas) Port Arthur LNG/ Sempra Brownsville/ Annova LNG Brownsville/ 3 rd Point, Samsung Brownsville-Rio Grande / Next Decade Second Wave (Other) Pascagoula, MS / Kinder Morgan Jordan Cove, OR / Veresen 33
34 Bcf/d Pipeline Capacity and Demand Outlook For Mexico Max Waha to Mexico Exports Waha Exports Forecast Exports to Mexico (ex-waha) Pipeline Capacity
35 Bcf/d U.S. Gas Fired Power Generation (RBN s Growth Scenario)
36 Bcf/d Where Is It All Going to Go? US West/NE Supply Growth (RBN Growth) vs. Expansions to the Gulf NE Expansions South +8.2 Bcf/d Approved Approved NE Production Growth West US Production Growth Expansions to SE/Gulf West Expansions East +5.6 Bcf/d Southeast/Gulf 36
37 Marcellus/Utica vs. Rockies vs. Permian vs. Midcon Who Wins Who Loses? Production Demand REX Reversal Production Demand Rover/ Nexus Production Demand» The next wave of Marcellus/Utica production growth will move to Michcon/Nova via Rover and Nexus creating supply surpluses in the Midwest» With no alternative markets, Rockies gas will continue to move east into the Midwest» Midwest surpluses will compete with Permian associated gas production and Appalachian gas moving on pipeline reversals to the Gulf Coast» Midwest surpluses will further aggravate oversupplies competing for the only growth market in North America the Southeast/Gulf 37
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