BIOFUELS LESSONS LEARNED
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1 BIOFUELS LESSONS LEARNED NGA POLICY ACADEMY MID-COURSE WORKSHOP MAY 15, 2014 MACKINNON LAWRENCE RESEARCH DIRECTOR 2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc. MARKET INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS BENCHMARKING
2 Introduction NAVIGANT RESEARCH PROVIDES IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CLEAN TECHNOLOGY MARKETS. The team s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. RESEARCH PROGRAMS: Smart Energy Smart Utilities Smart Transportation Smart Buildings RESEARCH OFFERINGS: Research Reports Subscription Research Services Custom Market Research Custom Market Analysis Market Sizing and Forecasting Primary Research Go-to-Market Services Strategic Advisory Sessions Commercial Due Diligence Technology Evaluation Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Navigant Research Bioenergy Portfolio BIOECONOMY Fuels Electrons Heat Chemicals Products» Reports Smart Waste Aviation and Marine Biofuels Biofuels for Transportation Markets Advanced Biofuels Country Rankings Market Data: Biofuels Market Data: Biomass Power Generation Industrial Biorefineries Renewable Biogas Waste to Energy Technology Market Green Chemistry Biopower Markets and Technologies Biofuels Markets and Technologies Algae-Based Biofuels Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Bioenergy Lessons Learned Lesson 1» Bioenergy scale up requires the sum of parts (all biomass is local) Lesson 2» Green attributes do not a market make Lesson 3» Interplay of shale gas and oil will dictate bioenergy development Lesson 4» Infrastructure remains the primary bottleneck Lesson 5» It s the supply chain, stupid Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Scaling up in a +$5 Trillion-per-Year Industry Oil Demand, World Markets: 2013» Amount of water that flows over Niagara Falls in one hour ~3,800 million gallons per day (MGD)» BP s Deep Water Horizon spill gushed approximately 206 million gallons of crude oil into the Gulf during a 3- month period» Global biofuels production = 85 MGD Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Global Biofuels Production Highly Concentrated Global Biofuels Market Share by Feedstock, World Markets: 2013 Rest of the World Mixed Argentina Soy China Wheat or Rice European Union Vegetable Oils Brazil Sugarcane United States Corn starch ~70% of Global Biofuels Production Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Bioenergy Scale Up Will Be Sum of Parts 1970s 2000s 2010s 2020s Algae Gases Palm MSW Rapeseed Sugarcane Jatropha Corn Grasses Soy Electrofuels Wood Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 Green Attributes Do Not a Market Make Representative Bioenergy Pathways: Solving the Three-Legged Stool Feedstock Product Scale Sustainable Affordable Coarse grains Ethanol Vegetable oil Biodiesel Used cooking grease Biodiesel Corn stover Cellulosic ethanol Miscanthus Cellulosic ethanol Jatropha/Camelina RDIF MSW RDIF Waste gases RDIF Carbon dioxide RDIF Algae RDIF Manure Heat/Power Wood pellets Heat/Power Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 Interplay of Shale Gas and Oil $40 Oil to Gas Ratio, United States: $35 $30 ($/bbl : $/mmbtu) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
10 Infrastructure Remains the Primary Bottleneck» +$500 billion in infrastructure investment required to meet global biofuel mandates over the next decade Estimated Biorefinery CAPEX by Pathway, World Markets: 2013 Thermochemical Cellulosic Heavy Oil (Upgrade) Tar Sands (Greenfield) Oil Shale (Greenfield) Sugarcane Ethanol Hydroprocessing Kitimat Refinery (Proposed) Corn Starch Ethanol Jubail Refinery (Saudi Aramco) Biodiesel New Refinery (Average) Trainer Refinery (Delta Sale) Carson Refinery (Tesoro Sale) $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $ Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 It s the Supply Chain, Stupid UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Feedstock Logistics Production Distribution End Users Growers Cooperatives Landowners Ag processors Forestry Biotech Processors Industrial Haulers Railroads Shipping Agribusiness Pellet mills Pulp and paper Food processors Breweries Waste management Industrial processors Startups Joint ventures Independent refiners Oil majors Gas station retailers Fuel marketers Oil & gas Haulers Railroads Shipping Autos Aviation Military Muni fleets Chemical refining Food and beverage Consumer goods Utilities (power) Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 Contact Us MAIN OFFICE 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO WORLDWIDE OFFICES United States: Europe: Asia Pacific: Boulder, Colorado Chicago, Illinois San Francisco, California Washington, D.C. Copenhagen, Denmark London, United Kingdom Seoul, South Korea General information: Sales inquiries: Mackinnon Lawrence: Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
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