Next Generation CO 2 -EOR in the US and Globally
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1 Next Generation CO 2 -EOR in the US and Globally IEA: Oil and Gas Innovation in the Fossil Fuel Future European Seminar and Dialogue Michael E. Moore Managing Partner CO 2 -Global/Falcon ES Brussels February 23, 2006
2 Two Markets for Same Molecule Commodity CO 2 for use in Enhanced Oil Recovery in the US and Globally Sequestered CO 2 or Greenhouse Gas and resulting tradable offsets EU ETS and other markets waiting for protocols on geologic sequestration that are being developed MHI aggressively pushing for recognition by CDM Review Board last push on Jan 30, 2006 for geologic sequestration
3 IEA Global Overview Source:
4 Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum Source:
5 Magnitude of US Source and Sinks Source: Battelle/USEA Providing Low-Cost Energy in a Carbon Constrained World: The Role of Sequestration Jim Dooley Jan 19, 2005 DC USEA Briefing
6 Magnitude of Global CCS Source: IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide and Storage IPCC WG III 8 th Session Sept 22-23, 2005
7 Drivers
8 Emerging Carbon Markets Source: BP-Charles Christopher 2005
9 GHG Credit Trading Accelerating Source: Feb 1, 2006 The monthly volume of allowances traded in the European emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) rose to 67.8 million tonnes during the month of January 2006, almost doubling the previous record high. Avg near $30./ton or near $2.billion turnover last month. Last year total was $5.6 billion for entire year
10 Current Movements WRI Stakeholder meeting Feb 28 on Geologic Seq. Senators Domenici and Bingaman White Paper Feb MHI CCS CDM proposal BP-Edison Mission-Oxy California Project Feb SEC Proven Production Reserves: $61.00 Daiwa Securities indexing bonds against GHG credits FutureGen siting RFP goes out February 8 th
11 Knowledge Base Increasing GHG Trading embedded in many US multinationals US has seven regional partnerships Aggressive bidding on FutureGen State actions-california and RGGI Oil production requires more CO 2 Power generation has CO 2 pressures from institutional share holders, CCS is next step
12 Monetary Drivers Federal Off and On Shore Royalty Relief CO2 Energy Bill & Clean Coal EU ETS $~30.00 ton Commodity CO2 +$30.00/tn 10 yrs $ Research Grants SEC Crude Oil Value $61.00 Crude Oil WTI $ yrs Federal & State Economic Dev Funds US Offsets $ ton
13 Forward 10yr Curve WTI and Brent Source: Barclays Capital Daily Report Feb 21, 2006
14 US Equivalent GHG Value and Implied Value of Commodity CO 2 Source: Point Carbon Daily Report & Feb 21, 2006 Dates Used: Feb 21 th Close of Business euros x currency conversion = $32.38/ton 4% of Crude value per mcf of CO 2 -ARI Basin studies dlvd to the EOR project = $62.00 *.04 = $2.48/mcf * = $43.15 Implied commodity value of CO 2 /ton for EOR for the 10 year curve on crude oil
15 43 Billion Bbls of Oil by CO 2 -EOR Six Basin Studies Released by DOE April 20,
16 CO 2 -EOR Win-Win
17 Capital Driver for US CO 2 -EOR US Oil reserves accounting system for proven produce able reserves for 2006 valued closer to today s markets (~$61.00/bbl) stimulating major activity, 2005 saw values reflecting 2004(~$43/bbl) values, economics did not fit what could be booked
18 Infrastructure
19 Current Permian Basin Fields and Infrastructure for CO 2 -EOR
20 Jan 2006-Permian Basin Produced its 1 st Billion Barrels by CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery Source: Steve Melzer-Melzer Consulting-Midland
21 CO 2 Demand Exceeds Current Capacity Current movement of CO 2 to Denver City from all regional sources: ~2.0 bcf/d producing over 200,000bbls/day Current estimates based on 6 floods ready for CO 2 : 540mmcf/d of demand over supply.
22 US CO 2 driven EOR Projects and Infrastructure-Today and Tomorrow Source: Denbury Resources, Inc.,
23 CO 2 Source Activities Kinder Morgan and Exxon Mobil McElmo Dome expansion--problematic Occidental s Bravo Dome expansion new wells drop earlier well pressures Denbury s Jackson Dome Expansion 1tcf to 4.7tcf Cortes Pipeline system running at maximum capacity-adding additional compression capacity St.John s Dome development/expansion problems some leases moving into new hands Cat Head Mesa New Mexico-we are currently defining structure 3% helium content Exxon Mobil LaBarge gas processing expansion another 100mcf and already sold to Devon and Marathon for new EOR projects buyers left over Blue Source La Veda gas processing already sold to Kinder Morgan doubled to 60mcf Great Plains Gasification CO 2 expansion---already sold forward future expansion to Encana, several bidders left over Calpine running studies on CO 2 economics and storage options Gulf Coast for petcoke gasification plans currently on hold due to bankruptcy Regional group of Three Texas power producers doing same in central Texas Petchem Company exploring option to build capture, aggregation and distribution system in Louisiana-Gulf Coast amongst emitters Gasification planned or expanding in: Kansas, Illinois, Ohio, Montana, Wyoming and Louisiana?? What's BP up to: California announced, next?
24 Likely Area of Most US Activity Onshore Gulf Coast contains 18 billion barrels of stranded oil in portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast basins and the Mississippi Salt basin. There is an opportunity to recover an additional 6 billion barrels in the reservoirs assessed, and potentially up to 10 billion additional barrels when the results are extrapolated to all oil reservoirs in the Gulf Coast area. Offshore Louisiana- The use of CO 2 -EOR in offshore state and federal waters could extend the productive use of existing offshore oil platforms that might otherwise be prematurely abandoned. An additional six billion may be recovered from 99 large offshore (shallow water) reservoirs using state-of-the-art technology.
25 Other States and CO 2 -EOR-Sequestration Michigan group with CO 2 from Anthropogenic sources working on State Tax Credit for Capture-EOR- Sequestration valued against EU-ETS pricing Kansas just starting to explore options from coal gasification SE corner of state with CO 2 -EOR- Sequestration and state economic development assistance Oklahoma tax credits for infrastructure build out Illinois exploring similar measures driven by identified oil reserves and coal gasification interests California with identified reserves and CO 2 emissions pressures sets Carbon Cap on power generation North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, etc
26 OPEC Embraces CO 2 -EOR-Geologic Sequestration October 21, 2005 Washington, DC Peak Oil Forum held by the National Academy of Sciences: OPEC Secretary General Dr. Adnan Shehab-Eldin announces that OPEC incorporates CO 2 -EOR-Geologic Sequestration as part of long term member strategy to enhance reservoir production via CO 2 driven Enhanced Oil Recovery with anthropogenic CO 2 and it s consequent geologic sequestration and resulting GHG Credits for its Kyoto members. Saudi Arabia joins CSLF OPEC looking at joining international group Extends reservoir life as well as recoverables
27 Denbury Heavily Weighted CO 2 Play
28 Denbury s CO 2 View All Natural Occurring from Jackson Dome In accordance with SEC requirements, Denbury's proved reserves at December 31, 2005 were computed using unescalated year-end 2005 commodity prices of $61.04 per Bbl of oil (based on NYMEX prices) with necessary adjustments applied to each field to arrive at the net price received by the Company as of December 31, In 2004 that value was $43.45 Using these prices, the estimated discounted net present value of Denbury's proved reserves, before projected income taxes, at December 31, 2005, using a 10% discount rate ("PV-10 Value") was $3.22 billion, approximately 96% higher than the Company's PV-10 Value of $1.64 billion a year earlier. During 2005, the Company increased its proved CO 2 reserves from 2.7 Tcf at December 31, 2004 to 4.6 Tcf at December 31, 2005, a 74% increase (both volumes on a working interest basis). Approximately 1.0 Tcf was attributable to the discovery well at DRI Ice Field completed late in 2005 with the majority of the remaining reserve increase attributable to behind pipe reserves in the Company's existing wells in the Smackover formation. ~26,000bbs/day production
29 Denbury s Operations Source: Denbury s Feb 2006 Corporate Overview
30 China Wildcard By the end of 2005 ~28 million cars and trucks on the road population ~1.4 billion people By the end of 2005 the US had 220 million cars and trucks on the road-population just under 300 million In ,000 Americans learning Chinese million Chinese learning English.
31 China-India Demand Wildcard Source: NY Times and EIA Country Stats
32 Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) Corporate Partners
33 GCCC Mission The GCCC seeks to impact global levels of atmospheric emissions by conducting science and engineering studies that will enable the development of a viable CO 2 sequestration industry in the US Gulf Coast. Image shows concentrations of stationary sources of CO 2 superimposed on the thickness of the subsurface
34 GCCC Activities Source-Sink inventory CO 2 marketing for EOR/Carbon trading Field Demonstrations Frio Brine Pilot Gulf Coast stacked storage Proposed Permian historic field impact study Permian new field baseline Capture information exchange Public information Information to Texas Legislature Information to other Gulf Coast States Legislature
35 Main GCCC Results to Date Quantification of CO 2 market for EOR in GIS (spatial inventory) Sources: GIS data base of stationary sources and inventory of capture options Field demonstration of monitoring and modeling techniques to measure subsurface storage of CO 2, assure public and environmental safety and effectiveness of this process Significance of two phase trapping in assuring permanence Publication and outreach
36 Positive Attributes Source-sink proximity Significant infrastructure in place Geology well understood Large storage potential in terrestrial, oil reservoir, and saline aquifer stacked sinks Dual economic drivers: EOR and trade credits Economic feedback loop whereby State incentives for capture could be recovered via taxes and royalties on CO 2 EOR
37 Texas CO 2 -EOR Source Sink Size 2 Bcf/day of CO 2 currently injected for EOR in U.S. (20% anthro), predominately in carbonate reservoirs in the Permian Basin. Current U.S. CO 2 EOR Production = 205,877 bopd (4% of U.S. production, 66 active project, 50 in Permian Basin) CO 2 annual emissions from all fossil energy sources Texas = 667 million metric tons (based on consumption) Sequestration volumes available in CO 2 -EOR (15% recovery) Texas (excluding Permian Basin) = 726 million metric tons Conservative estimate (15 % recovery) of CO 2 EOR Potential Texas (excluding Permian Basin) = 5.7 BSTB Annual U.S. consumption is ~ 7 BSTB and production is ~ 3.2 BSTB
38 Inventory of CO 2 Miscible Reservoirs
39 Existing CO 2 Point Sources Power plants High concentration sources Other point sources (cement and iron)
40 Frio Brine Pilot Demonstrating the Potential for Large Volume Sequestration Highly collaborative project. Demonstrated that CO 2 can be injected into a brine formation without adverse health, safety, or environmental effects. Determined the subsurface distribution of injected CO 2 using diverse monitoring technologies. Demonstrated validity of conceptual models. Developed experience necessary for success of large-scale CO 2 injection implementation.
41 Stacked Storage Monitoring Elements Ecosystem monitoring: Chemical and biologic change Ground water monitoring for geochemical change Injection horizon: pressure, temperature, oil and CO 2 saturation during and postinjection, instrumented slant hole Characterization of deeper horizon in preparation for eventual disposal
42 Model for Stacked Storage in the Gulf Coast
43 Gulf Coast Carbon Center Tapping the Potential for Large Volume Storage of Carbon in the Gulf Coast Susan Hovorka Telephone (512) ; Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Michael E. Moore-Advisor
44 Conclusion Large scale CO 2 driven EOR & Sequestration systems developing internationally Politically, environmentally, and commercially beginning to makes sense Large scale and scalable, second life cycle in US Gulf Coast Motivated participant countries and asset holders Oil production subsidizes sequestration and in synch with national energy security issues in the US and EU Huge opportunity for regional emitters and sinks as well as technology, equipment, and service providers Oil producing regions benefit from developing positive economic impacts and extended asset life Michael E. Moore Managing Partner : CO2 Global/Falcon ES Emerging energy commodity market development for past +20 years Vice Chairman Coalition for Enhanced Oil Recovery 1776 Yorktown, Suite 500 Houston, Texas Main: Direct: Cell: Fax: mmoore@falcongasstorage.com
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