CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

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1 CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas September 15 The Marcellus Shale Paul Kralovic Advances in horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) are opening up new shale gas resources in North America, previously determined as non-productive or not feasible to produce. Among them are the Fayetteville Shale in northern Arkansas, the Haynesville Shale in eastern Texas and north Louisiana, the Eagle Ford in Texas, the Barnett Shale in Texas, and the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia. The latter is the largest producing shale gas basin in North America, surpassing the prolific and pioneering Barnett Shale in January 1 and the Haynesville Shale in September 1. 1 Figure 1.1 demonstrates the rapid production of shale gas in the US and the dramatic rise of the Marcellus Shale. Figure 1.1: US Dry Shale Gas Production As of September 15, the Marcellus Shale produced 15.7 Bcfd, accounting for approximately 37 percent of the total shale gas production in the US. 3 This is followed by East Texas s Eagle Ford at.9 Bcfd, the Haynesville at 3.9 Bcfpd and the Barnett Shale at 3. Bcfd. It is important to note that production in the Utica Shale in the US has increased dramatically from 1.5 Bcfd in September 1 to 3. Bcfd in September At the moment, however, the Marcellus Shale is the largest producing shale in North America by a wide margin. While much of the drilling activity is occurring in Pennsylvania, the Marcellus Shale spreads across several states, including West Virginia, Ohio and New York. Other shales in the northeastern US include the up-andcoming Utica Shale and the Devonian/Ohio Shale the former is the deepest and oldest of the three shale plays, while the latter are the shallowest and youngest. For the most part, the Marcellus Shale lies in between the other two. Figure 1. illustrates the location of the Marcellus Shale and the Utica Shale. Figure 1.: Map of the Marcellus Shale Formation Source: EIA CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Jon Rozhon, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at or contact us at info@ceri.ca. Source: Mining.com The Marcellus Shale is a black, low-density, organic-rich shale. The Devonian-aged Marcellus lies at a depth range of 5,-,5 ft., which is shallow compared to the 1,5-13,5 ft. of the Haynesville Shale, making it less costly for exploration and producing companies to extract. 7 Other attractive geological characteristics for producers is the thickness and porosity, the Marcellus Shale is 5- ft. and. percent, respectively.

2 Page The Marcellus Shale is the largest subset of the Appalachian Basin, which is the largest hydrocarbonbearing basin in the Lower-. University of New York and Pennsylvania State University geologists estimated the Marcellus to contain up to 5 Tcf, of which the same geologists estimate 9 Tcf is recoverable with current technology. 9 In January 1, the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimated that the play contains 11 Tcf of unproved technically recoverable natural gas. 1 Chesapeake Energy Co., the largest leaseholder in the core of the Marcellus Shale, suggests that their position alone may yield ultimate gross recoverable reserves of approximately Bcf and 3.1 Tcf of risked unproved resources. 11 While gas-in-place estimates vary, the Marcellus Shale is enormous. And these estimates do not include the underlying Utica Shale in the area. Positive geological characteristics combined with the close proximity of the shale to consuming markets gives the Marcellus Shale a lower cost advantage. While the rapid increase in production of the Marcellus is great news for gas producers and supporting industries in Pennsylvania and nearby states, the flood of lower cost Marcellus gas has had a profound effect on the gas flows of the US Northeast, Midwest and central Canadian markets. Negatively impacting gas from western Canada, Alberta gas is being pushed out of the Midwest and the increasing amount of lower cost Marcellus gas is further displacing western Canadian gas out of central Canada and US Northeast. 1 Marcellus production has decreased Canadian gas exports to the US, export volumes at Ontario and Québec border points dropping from 1.5 Bcfd in 1 to 775 MMcfd in US gas imports into Canada, delivered into Ontario and Québec border points, have increased from 93.1 MMcfd in to.1 Bcfd in 1. 1 Changing economics and gas flows are taking their toll, as natural gas production in Alberta (including conventional marketable natural gas, coalbed methane and shale gas) has decreased from 1.1 Bcfd in to 1. Bcfd in Over that same time period, conventional gas production decreased from 13.5 Bcfd to 9. Bcfd, with only 1 MMcfd from shale gas sources in the latter. 1 It is important to note, however, that while industry pundits suggest that Marcellus production could exceed Bcfd by, 17 the short-term outlook is less optimistic. The EIA is anticipating declines in the Marcellus Shale by approximately MMcfd in October. 1 The EIA is also expecting declines in the Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Permian and the Utica, making it four consecutive months of decreases in the six plays. 19 Gas flows have increased approximately ten-fold between 1 and 1, leaving Marcellus producers to face a lack of pipeline infrastructure outside of the Appalachian region. 1 While production of the play has climbed sharply, the takeaway capacity lags behind. Numerous pipeline expansions and reversals are, however, underway to accommodate the changing gas flows. Several projects, such as modifying the Rockies Express (REX) Pipeline are, however, impacting Canadian producers further. The original mandate was to deliver gas from Colorado to eastern Ohio and the higher-priced, consuming markets on the East Coast. While Rockies gas is also being pushed out, the eastern portion of the REX now transports natural gas westward from Ohio to Midwest markets, increasing competition for western Canadian producers. 3 Exports from Canada to the US Midwest region have decreased, from 5.1 Bcfd in 11 to 3.9 Bcfd in 1. Whether entering Ontario, Chicago and the Midwest or the Gulf Coast, Marcellus gas will likely continue to affect western Canadian gas. CERI is currently examining the future of Canadian gas exports in a study to be released in the Spring of 1. For additional information, go to Endnotes 1 EIA website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, US dry shale gas production figure data, energy_in_brief/article/shale_in_the_united_states.cfm EIA website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, shale_in_the_united_states.cfm 3 Market Realist website, Why the Marcellus Shale is important for US oil and gas, December 1, 1, marketrealist.com/1/1/marcellus-shale-important-us-oilgas/ EIA website, Energy in Brief, Shale in the United States, US dry shale gas production figure data, energy_in_brief/article/shale_in_the_united_states.cfm 5 ibid Mining.com website, Albert Gas All Dressed Up and No Place to Go? December, 1, alberta-gas-all-dressed-up-and-no-place-to-go/

3 Page 3 7 From Shale to Shining Shale, Deutsche Bank, July,, pp. 35. ibid 9 Congressional Research Services, Marcellus Shale CRS Report, October 1,, CRS-. 1 Penn States University, Marcellus Center for Outreach & Research, How Much Natural Gas Can The Marcellus Shale Produce?, pp Oilshalegas.com website, Marcellus Shale, Platt s Gas Daily, Marcellus to displace Rockies, Canada gas: Bernstein, May 13, 15, P=m&e= / GD_15513.xml?artnum=cd9ef-ba-9e-9feb- b9e5d1ba_1 13 National Energy Board, Canadian Energy Dynamics: Review of 1 - Energy Market Assessment February 15, dnmc/1/index-eng.html 1 National Energy Board, Gas Monthly Summary by Port- Volumes, GasStatistics.aspx 15 Finance Alberta, Marketable Natural Gas Production in Alberta, data/marketable-natural-gas-production-ab.pdf 1 ibid 17 Forbes website, Here's Why Marcellus Shale Play Is So Important For Chesapeake, September 1, 1, Platt s Gas Daily, EIA expects Marcellus declines, Haynesville gains, September 15, 15, Hanhttps://online.platts.com/PPS/ P=m&e= / GD_15915.xml?artnum=cebbbf95-e7-9b5-a3e _ 19 ibid ibid 1 Platt s Gas Daily, Pennsylvania gas producers feeling the squeeze, October 15, 15, P=m&e= / GD_15113.xml?artnum=c7b7d37-3d-93-bd1- a9de95bbd_ Appalachian pipeline developers facing challenges, October 19, 15, P=m&e= / GD_15119.xml?artnum=c5b31ebb-35b-59b-adfe- 1ab5f13f_3 3 National Energy Board, Market Snapshot: Decreasing Canadian Natural Gas Exports to the U.S. Midwest and East Regions, September 1, 15, ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/15/9-3dcrsngxprt-eng.html ibid

4 Page Henry Hub/AECO-C Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) Henry Hub/Chicago Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) 1 Differential Henry Hub AECO-C 1 15 Differential Henry Hub Chicago Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15-7 Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. Henry Hub/Rockies Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) Henry Hub/Southern California Beginning of Next Month Spot Price (US$/MMBtu) 15 Differential Henry Hub Rockies Differential Henry Hub Southern California Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-11 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

5 SOURCE: Canadian Gas Association. SOURCE: CERI, Canadian Gas Association, Statistics Canada. Page , Canadian Heating Degree Days 5-Year Avg US Heating Degree Days 5-Year Avg SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: CERI, NOAA, EIA. Canadian Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption Degree Days BCFPD 1, 7 Degree Days Consumption 1, Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption Degree Days BCFPD 1, Degree Days Consumption 1, Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15

6 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. Page

7 SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: NOAA. Page 7

8 SOURCE: Statistics Canada. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: EIA. SOURCE: EIA. Page Canadian Consumption By Sector (Bcfpd) 1 1 Industrial & Power Commercial Residential 1 1 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Consumption By Sector (Bcfpd) 1 1 Industrial Electric Power Commercial Residential 1 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Canadian Marketable Production By Province/Region (Bcfpd) 1 BC, Yukon, NWT AB SK E. Coast Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Marketable Production (Bcfpd) 9 US Total Louisiana GOM Federal Waters Texas Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

9 Page BC, Yukon, NWT Marketable Production (Bcfpd) Saskatchewan Marketable Production (Bcfpd) Alberta Marketable Production (Bcfpd) East Coast Marketable Production (Bcfpd) SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, NEB.

10 Page System Field Receipts TransCanada + Westcoast; Monthly Average (Bcfpd) Canadian Gas Exports to the US By Export Point - West (Bcfpd) Kingsgate Monchy Elmore Huntingdon Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug Alberta System Deliveries (Bcfpd) Empress McNeill AB-BC Alliance Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Canadian Gas Exports to the US By Export Point - East (Bcfpd) Emerson Iroquois Others Niagara Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 SOURCE: CERI. SOURCE: CERI. SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

11 SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB, EIA. SOURCE: NEB. Page 11 US Imports of Canadian Gas By US Region (Bcfpd) 1 West MidWest East 1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Total US Pipeline Gas Imports (Bcfpd) 1 1 Canada Mexico 1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul Average Canadian Export Price By US Region (C$/GJ) West MidWest East Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Canadian Gas Imports By Import Point (Bcfpd) Courtright Sarnia St. Clair Other Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

12 Page 1 Canadian Working Gas Storage (Bcf, Month-end) Canadian Storage by Region (Bcf, Month-end) 1, Year Avg West East Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. US Lower- Working Gas Storage (Bcf, Month-end) US Storage by Region (Bcf, Month-end),5,,5 East West Producing Region 5-Year Avg. 1 15, 3,5 3,5 3, 3,,5,5,, 1,5 1, 5 1,5 1, 5 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

13 Page 13 WC_IJ_WD Western Canada Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) Eastern Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 1 5-Year Avg Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 15 5-Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily.

14 Page 1 US Western Consuming Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 1 5-Year Avg US Producing Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg US Eastern Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg US Storage Injections/Withdrawals (Bcf, Month-end) 5-Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

15 Page 15 Eastern US LNG Imports By Facility (Bcf) 1 1 Cove Point Elba Island Everett NE Gateway Neptune 1 1 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 US LNG Imports By Origin (Bcf) Other Nigeria Trinidad Norway Qatar Yemen Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 US GoM LNG Imports By Facility (Bcf) Freeport Lake Charles Sabine Pass Cameron Golden Pass Gulf LNG Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Volume-Weighted Average LNG Price (US$/MMBtu) SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. Note: There were no LNG imports for the month of November 1. SOURCE: US DOE.

16 Page 1 Japan US LNG Exports to Japan (Bcf) Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 US LNG Re-Exports By Destination (Bcf) 7 Mexico Brazil Japan Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 SOURCE: US DOE, NEB. SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: EIA, US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

17 SOURCE: CERI, CAODC, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. Page 17 North American Active Rigs 3, US WCSB,5, 1,5 1, 5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 WCSB Active Rigs by Province Weekly Average 7 SK AB BC Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Canadian Rig Fleet Utilization Weekly Average Active Rigs 1, 9 Active Rigs Total Rig Drilling Fleet Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 Western Canada Active Rigs Weekly Average 7 5-Year Avg Week Number

18 SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. Page 1 US Total Active Rigs, Oil-directed Gas-directed Gas-directed %,, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 US Gulf of Mexico Active Rigs 1 Oil-directed Gas-directed 1 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 1% 9% % 7% % 5% % 3% % 1% % US Total Active Rigs,5 Total Oil-directed GoM Gas-directed Onshore Gas-directed, 1,5 1, 5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan- Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-15 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

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