Renewable electricity: Non-OECD Summary OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe References...
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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword... 3 Acknowledgements... 4 Executive summary The role of renewables in the energy mix continued to expand in Strong market drivers, but increased risks for renewable power deployment ahead Higher renewable electricity deployment possible under enhanced case conditions Improving competitiveness, but market and policy frameworks keys for investment Biofuels for transport and renewable heat expanding, though with challenges Renewables at risk of falling short versus long-term clean energy scenarios References Analytical framework Renewable energy data present unique challenges Country-level approach underpins the renewable electricity analysis Outlooks for technology and investment guide the global picture Biofuels for transport and renewable heat round out the analysis References Renewable electricity: OECD Summary OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe References Renewable electricity: Non-OECD Summary Africa Asia China Europe and Eurasia Middle East Non-OECD Americas References Renewable electricity: Global technologies Summary Global trends in renewable power: Geographical diffusion Global trends in renewable power: Economic competitiveness MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2014
2 Bioenergy for power Geothermal power Hydropower Ocean power Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar PV Special focus: Solar PV reaching socket parity STE References Investment in renewable power Summary Trends in renewable electricity capacity investment Medium-term outlook for investment in new renewable power capacity References Renewable heat Summary Total FEH today Renewable energy use for heat: Market trends, forecast and policy frameworks Renewable heating technologies References Renewable transport Summary Global overview Regional forecasts Advanced biofuels industry References TABLES Glossary of definitions, terms and abbreviations LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Global renewable electricity production by region, historical and projected Figure 2 Cumulative change in gross power generation by source and region, Figure 3 Renewable electricity annual net capacity additions, historical and projected Figure 4 World renewable power capacity, baseline and enhanced case projections Figure 5 Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected Figure 6 Levelised costs of electricity (USD per megawatt hour [MWh]), beginning year Figure 7 World biofuels production, historical and projected MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT
3 Figure 8 World final renewable energy use for heat (including commercial heat) Figure 9 Global renewable electricity generation, the MTRMR 2014 forecast versus ETP DS Figure 10 Cumulative investment in new renewable power capacity Figure 11 OECD renewable electricity net capacity additions and projection (gigawatts [GW]) Figure 12 OECD renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh) Figure 13 OECD Americas projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 14 OECD Americas historical and projected renewable annual capacity additions Figure 15 OECD Americas power demand versus GDP growth Figure 16 OECD Americas total power capacity versus peak load, Figure 17 United States land-based wind LCOE ranges versus selected average wholesale prices.. 41 Figure 18 OECD Asia Oceania power generation mix and renewable generation Figure 19 OECD Asia Oceania historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 20 Asia Oceania countries power demand versus GDP growth Figure 21 Asia Oceania total power capacity versus peak demand Figure 22 Japan planned solar PV capacity by prefecture, March Figure 23 Japan solar PV LCOE ranges versus FIT and end-user price levels Figure 24 OECD Europe projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 25 OECD Europe historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 26 OECD Europe countries power demand versus GDP growth Figure 27 OECD Europe countries total power capacity versus peak load, Figure 28 EU-28 renewable electricity generation and projection and NREAPs in Figure 29 Current and projected annual generation shares of wind and solar PV Figure 30 Germany estimated levelised costs of power generation ranges, beginning year Figure 31 Non-OECD renewable net electricity capacity additions and projection (GW) Figure 32 Non-OECD renewable electricity generation and projection (TWh) Figure 33 Africa projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 34 Africa historical and projected capacity additions Figure 35 Africa selected countries power demand (left axis) versus demand growth and GDP growth (right axis) Figure 36 Africa selected countries total power capacity versus peak demand Figure 37 South Africa awarded and remaining capacity and tender prices under REIPPP Figure 38 Asia projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 39 Asia historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 40 Asia countries power demand versus demand growth and GDP growth Figure 41 Indonesia power generation by source and renewable share of total Figure 42 India LCOE of onshore wind and solar PV versus power market price and renewable energy certificates (RECs) Figure 43 China projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 44 China historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 45 China power demand versus GDP growth Figure 46 China power generation by source and renewable share of total Figure 47 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia power generation mix and renewable generation Figure 48 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 49 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia power demand versus GDP growth Figure 50 Middle East projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 51 Middle East historical and projected renewable capacity additions MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2014
4 Figure 52 Middle East countries power demand versus GDP growth Figure 53 Saudi Arabia power generation by source Figure 54 Non-OECD Americas projected shares of power mix and renewable generation Figure 55 Non-OECD Americas historical and projected renewable capacity additions Figure 56 Non-OECD Americas power demand growth Figure 57 Brazil energy auction results in 2013, tendered capacity Figure 58 World renewable electricity generation, historical and projected Figure 59 World renewable electricity net annual capacity additions, historical and projected Figure 60 World renewable power capacity, baseline and enhanced case projections Figure 61 Number of countries with non-hydro renewable capacity above 100 MW Figure 62 Historical and forecasted LCOEs (USD per megawatt hour [MWh]), beginning year Figure 63 Bioenergy power generation and projection by region Figure 64 Global wood pellet production (left) and wood pellet consumption by energy sector in the major consuming countries in the European Union 2012 (right) Figure 65 Geothermal power capacity and projection by region (TWh) Figure 66 Shares of PSP capacity in hydropower capacity in selected OECD countries in 2002 and 2012 (left) and share of mixed and pure PSP capacity in the OECD total (right) Figure 67 Hydropower capacity and projection by region Figure 68 Hydropower generation and projection by region Figure 69 Ocean power generation and projection by region Figure 70 Historical and projected system costs for typical offshore systems, beginning year Figure 71 Historical and projected LCOEs of typical offshore systems, beginning year Figure 72 Offshore wind generation projection by region (TWh) Figure 73 Equity market performance of selected wind turbine manufacturers Figure 74 Chinese wind turbine exports by company and destination Figure 75 Typical onshore wind total investment costs per kw in selected countries ( ) Figure 76 Historical and projected LCOEs for typical onshore systems, beginning year Figure 77 Onshore wind annual capacity additions by region (GW) Figure 78 Onshore wind generation projection by region (TWh) Figure 79 Typical solar PV system prices, by segment, beginning year Figure 80 Cost breakdown of solar PV system prices in Italy, Japan and the United States Figure 81 Historical and projected typical solar PV investment costs, beginning year Figure 82 Historical and projected LCOEs for typical solar PV systems, beginning year Figure 83 Solar PV manufacturer shipments by region versus total manufacturing capacity Figure 84 Solar PV annual capacity additions, historical and projected by region (GW) Figure 85 World solar PV capacity, baseline and enhanced case projections Figure 86 Solar PV capacity and deployment by market segment Figure 87 Solar PV electricity generation and projection by region Figure 88 Match of PV supply and power demand for a residential/commercial customer in France Figure 89 Comparison of self-use and self-sufficiency shares by system size and customer segment Figure 90 Comparison of variable component of electricity tariffs and solar PV LCOE Figure 91 Comparison of profitability index of a PV system at different shares of self-use for 3.5% (bottom line) and 7% cost of capital (top lines) Figure 92 Three different models for incentivising customer-owned PV Figure 93 Historical and projected LCOEs for STE, beginning year Figure 94 STE generation and projection by region MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT
5 Figure 95 World investment in new renewable power capacity, historical and projected Figure 96 Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected Figure 97 Investment indicators: Long-term government bond rates and utility equity performance Figure 98 Indicative costs of capital and LCOEs for new onshore wind, beginning Figure 99 World new investment in renewable power capacity, historical and projections Figure 100 Cumulative new investment in renewable power capacity historical, forecast and scenario analysis Figure 101 World final renewable energy use for heat (including commercial heat) Figure 102 Total FEH in buildings and industry, Figure 103 Modern renewable energy use for heat in buildings and industry, Figure 104 Share of renewable energy in total FEH in different world regions, Figure 105 Bioenergy heat production costs compared with electricity and natural gas-based heating Figure 106 Modern bioenergy use for heat in buildings and industry, Figure 107 Solar thermal heat production costs compared with electricity and natural gas-based heating Figure 108 Solar thermal energy use for heat in buildings and industry, Figure 109 Geothermal heat production costs compared with electricity and natural gas-based heating Figure 110 Geothermal energy use for heat in buildings and industry, Figure 111 World biofuel production Figure 112 EV stock development in different countries compared with ETP DS targets for world EV stocks in 2015 and Figure 113 Production costs of corn ethanol versus ethanol and gasoline spot price in the United States Figure 114 OECD Americas biofuel production and US biodiesel production and imports Figure 115 EU and Malaysian biodiesel production costs versus EU diesel and biodiesel spot prices Figure 116 OECD Europe biofuels production, Figure 117 Non-OECD Americas biofuels production (left) and comparison of ethanol and gasoline retail prices in Brazil (right) Figure 118 Argentinian biodiesel production and production economics Figure 119 Non-OECD Asia, Africa, China and Middle East biofuel production, Figure 120 Advanced biofuel production capacity, LIST OF MAPS Map 1 Net energy metering in the United States, status by state, July Map 2 Indonesia geothermal potential Map 3 China main wind resource sites and load centre Map 4 Interconnection of GCC countries LIST OF TABLES Table 1 World renewable electricity capacity and projection (baseline case) (GW) Table 2 World renewable electricity generation and projection (baseline case) (TWh) Table 3 IEA best-practice policy principles Table 4 Economic and technical lifetime assumptions in MTRMR 2014 (years) Table 5 Central assumptions for global LCOE ranges by technology (beginning of 2014) MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2014
6 Table 6 Top ten US states, 2013 capacity additions (MW) Table 7 OECD Americas main targets and support policies for renewable energy Table 8 OECD Americas cumulative renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 9 OECD Americas main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 10 Asia Oceania countries main targets and support policies for renewable energy Table 11 OECD Asia Oceania, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 12 OECD Asia Oceania main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 13 UK renewable capacity under development (February 2014) Table 14 Germany renewable deployment capacity corridors under the EEG Table 15 OECD Europe countries main targets and support policies for renewable energy Table 16 OECD Europe, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 17 OECD Europe main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 18 Africa countries main targets and support policies for new renewable energy capacities.. 86 Table 19 Africa, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 20 Africa countries main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 21 Thailand s renewable energy targets for 2021 (MW) Table 22 Non-OECD Asia countries main targets and support policies for new renewable energy capacities Table 23 Non-OECD Asia, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 24 Non-OECD Asia main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 25 China main targets and support policies for renewable energy Table 26 China renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW) Table 27 China main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 28 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia main targets and support policies for new renewable energy capacities Table 29 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 30 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, selected countries renewable capacity in 2013 and Table 31 Middle East countries main targets and support policies for renewable energy Table 32 Middle East, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 33 Middle East main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 34 Brazil power generation capacity targets under the PDE 2022 (GW) Table 35 Non-OECD Americas countries main targets and support policies for new renewable energy capacities Table 36 Brazil energy auctions, average contracted capacity prices (BRL/MWh) Table 37 Non-OECD Americas main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment Table 38 Non-OECD Americas, selected countries renewable energy capacity in 2013 and Table 39 World renewable electricity capacity and projection (GW) Table 40 Top five countries, projected increase in generation (TWh) over by technology Table 41 Top five countries, projected increase in generation (% change) over by technology Table 42 Bioenergy capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 43 Geothermal power capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 44 Hydropower capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 45 Ocean power capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 46 Offshore wind power capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 47 Onshore wind capacity and projection by region (GW) MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT
7 Table 48 Solar PV capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 49 Solar PV deployment category assumptions in MTRMR Table 50 Comparison of select distributed solar PV policy frameworks, June Table 51 STE capacity and projection by region (GW) Table 52 Renewable technologies, risks and types of investors Table 53 Examples of emerging investment vehicles for renewables Table 54 OECD country main targets and support policies for renewable heating and cooling Table 55 Non-OECD country main targets and support policies for renewable heating and cooling Table 56 Solar thermal heat installed capacity (GW th ) Table 57 World biofuels production Table 58 Global main targets and support policies for liquid biofuels Table 59 RFS2 volumes for different biofuels Table 60 Ethanol production (billion litres) Table 61 Biodiesel production (billion litres) Table 62 Total renewable electricity capacity (GW) Table 63 Renewable energy use for heat (EJ) Table 64 Total renewable electricity generation (TWh) LIST OF BOXES Box 1 Emissions reduction proposals could give longer-term renewable boost in the United States.. 35 Box 2 As deployment ramps up, US states debate rules for distributed solar PV Box 3 Transition ahead for Japan s power sector Box 4 EU renewable electricity faces challenges to meet 2020 targets and beyond Box 5 Wood pellets a niche product becoming an energy commodity Box 6 Evolving landscape for pumped storage hydropower Box 7 Why do solar PV system prices vary so much among markets? Box 8 Solar PV deployment segments vary by market Box 9 Guide to the renewable investment outlook Box 10 Cost of capital a key to reducing renewable generation costs Box 11 Renewable cooling in industry and buildings Box 12 Heat pumps: Efficient heating and cooling solutions, though not necessarily renewable Box 13 Solar thermal district heating in Denmark Box 14 Electric vehicles and renewable energy: Opportunities for synergy Box 15 IEA biofuel production cost analysis Box 16 EU long-term policy outlook MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2014
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