Examining Reservoir Water Retention During SAGD. Thursday January 31 st, 2013
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1 Examining Reservoir Water Retention During SAGD Thursday January 31 st, 2013
2 Forward-looking information and advisories This presentation contains "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking information is included in this presentation with respect to, among other things: estimates of reserves and resources and future net revenue associated therewith; forecast netbacks and the anticipated benefits thereof; anticipated timing associated with the phased development of Alberta Oilsands Inc.'s ("AOS'") Clearwater, Hangingstone, Grand Rapids and Algar Lake properties (including anticipated timing for receipt of regulatory approvals, delineation, drilling, completion project plans, commencement of construction, first-steam, commencement of production and timing of stakeholder consultations); expectations of future production and bitumen production goals; the anticipated application of certain technologies to enhance production; funding requirements and capital expenditures associated with such development; achieving commerciality; future development of AOS' conventional assets and its reserves and resource base; and general operational and financial performance in future periods. Withrespecttoforward-lookinginformationcontainedinthispresentation, AOShasmadeassumptionsregarding, amongotherthings: thefuturegrowth of AOS, operating costs; future prices for crude oil, natural gas, bitumen and refined products; AOS' ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations and to access existing credit facilities and capital markets to meet its future obligations; the legal and regulatory framework representing royalties, taxes and environmental matters where AOS conducts its business; and future economic conditions. Although the forward-looking information contained in this presentation is based upon assumptions which management of AOS believes to be reasonable, AOS cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with this forward-looking information. Forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties. A number of factors, many of which are beyond the control of AOS could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking information. Some of the risks that could affect the future results of AOS and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forwardlooking information of AOS include: the need to obtain required approvals and permits from regulatory authorities; the impact of competition; compliance with and liabilities under environmental laws and regulations; the uncertainties of estimates by AOS' independent consultants with respect to the company's reserves and resources; the volatility of crude oil, natural gas, bitumen and refined product prices; economic conditions in Canada and globally; changes to royalty regimes and government regulations regarding royalty payments; risks associated with exploring for, developing, producing, processing, storing and transporting crude oil, bitumen and natural gas; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems; imprecision in estimating capital expenditures and operating expenses; imprecision in estimating the timing, costs and levels of production and drilling; imprecision in estimates of future production capacity, potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration and development projects or capital expenditures; and changes to regulations and legislation applicable to the Corporation and the interpretation thereof including tax and environmental legislation and regulations in the provinces of Canada in which AOS conducts its business. These and additional risks and uncertainties relating to the business and operations of AOS are described in detail in its most recently filed Annual Information Form, which is available on SEDAR at Statements relating to "reserves" and "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the described reserves and resources, as the case may be, exist in the quantities predicted or estimated, and can be profitably produced in the future. "Contingent resources" means those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage. "Prospective resources" means thosequantitiesofpetroleumestimated,asofagivendate,tobe potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chanceofdiscoveryandachanceofdevelopment. It should be noted that reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources involve different risks associated with achieving commerciality. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources described in this presentation. Further, there is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources described in this presentation will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certaintythatitwillbecommerciallyviabletoproduceanyportionoftheprospectiveresources.theprospectiveresourceestimatessetforthherein have been risked for the chance of discovery but not for the chance of development and hence are considered partially risked estimates. If a discovery is made, there is no certainty that it will be developed or, if it is developed, there is no certainty as to the timing of such development. In addition, the estimated future net revenues and values contained in this presentation do not necessarily represent the market value of such reserves or resources. In addition to the foregoing, investors are cautioned that this presentation contains forecasted netbacks. The forecasted netbacks represent AOS' revenue, less royalties and certain operating expenses. The forecasted netbacks contained herein do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principals and therefore areunlikelytobecomparabletosimilarmeasures presented by other companies and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Management believes that forecasted netbacks are useful supplemental measures as they provide an indication of the ability of AOS to fund future growth through capital expenditures. The forward-looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this presentation, and AOS assumes no obligation to update or revise it to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. Becauseoftherisks,uncertaintiesandassumptionsinherentinforward-lookinginformation,prospectiveinvestorsinthesecuritiesofAOSshould not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information. The disclosure of barrels of oil equivalent ("boe") in this presentation may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ration of6mcf:1bblisbasedonanenergy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. 2
3 Introduction reservoir water retention to assess volume of water returned new recovery techniques to alter steam injected how water retention varies with steam injected (Using Clearwater West Pilot Project as an example results broadly applicable) 3
4 Clearwater Phase I 4
5 Basic SAGD Depiction In steam chamber Initially at Swi, oil is 1-Swi With steaming, Sw is Swi plus condensed steam water retention So drops with time 5
6 Oil sands water permeability Kaz Oldakowski, U of A Thesis, Mechanical Properties of Oil Sands 6
7 History Match UTF 7
8 Aherne and Birrell - UTF 8
9 Conclusions (Aherne and Birrell) 9
10 Conclusions (Aherne and Birrell) 10
11 Typical single well model: 11
12 Pad model using symmetry: 12
13 Single well vs. pad model Opti - Mobile Water Effect Oil Rate Time in days ISOR Oil - Leaky Oil - Immobile ISOR-Leaky ISOR-Immobile 13
14 SAGD VRR Calculation - Exotherm Model VRR CSOR chamber voidage Date 14
15 SAGD VRR Calculation - Tucker Project Total VRR Chamber Voidage CSOR Mar-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Date 15
16 Glacial Channels 16
17 Location of Quaternary channels 17
18 Hydrogeology of Athabasca 18
19 Hydrogeologic cross-section McMurray Water moves down through Clearwater McMurray drains into river valleys 19
20 Initial pore pressures Simulator will take a long time to stabilize Rainfail / surface recharge? Low permeability, piezometers take a long time to equalize Piezometer may not be stabilized in poor quality McMurray 20
21 Possible intersection Water in Quaternary channel is likely moving down air conditioning for the reservoir This will kill you SAGD project! 21
22 Lean Zones (Gas) 22
23 End of Solvent Injection Solvent will leak into lean zones water too! Need to plan for this Solvents reduce SORs and have worked in a number of projects 23
24 Suncor MacKay RMR report 24
25 MacKay Caprock Leakage 25
26 Modelling of leakage over project 26
27 Pressure moves up (through shale!) Need to know cap rock permeability 27
28 Top gas and top water 28
29 Heterogeneity included 29
30 Hard to balance ideally: 30
31 Reservoir with bottom aquifer 31
32 Steady improvement but low 32
33 Build model with all zones 33
34 BHL Underburden This is a subcrop a karst surface 34
35 Other indicators Drops or sinkholes in BHL top indicating collapse? Core a bit into the BHL then look at the core Do you lose circulation of mud? if so, mud loss in sand is unlikely what is more likely is fractures take a drink 35
36 Increased efficiency lower losses 36
37 Water leakage through BHL 37
38 Top water and gas - balancing Steam pressure too low cold water influx plus gas Steam pressure too high get steam loss Gravity segregation will occur in thief zone possible simultaneous loss of steam and influx of cold water Difficult to set an operating pressure when top of McMurray undulates. Pressure gradient in steam chambers very low aquifer pressure varies with hydrodynamic potential. 38
39 Conclusions - 1 Some water is retained in idealized ( Butler ) SAGD Project Oil sands transmit water! Reduces steam chamber pressure Might appear to be damage around wells Model pads not individual wells! Include the water losses Do VRR calculations for SAGD projects Different patterns talk to each other More water can be produced than injected! 39
40 Conclusions - 2 Other losses will occur Zones above (may not be serious) Low losses to shale Porosity and permeability above Wabiskaw sands Zones below (impairs production) Aquifer Fractured basement Underlying formations Sink holes Laterally (low water permeability helps some!) Oilsands have permeability to water Lean zones gas and oil Quaternary channels Needs to be aggressively addressed 40
41 Conclusions - 3 Minimize water requirements Solvents Operating pressure match to surroundings This will increase efficiency, but may reduce rates Think out of the box look carefully at what the boundaries really are Generally bad surprises Holistic or global view Omissions in loss analysis are normally optimistic Water Retention is a significant issue in project design and approval 41
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