WHR to Power Market Potential and Target Market Opportunities

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1 WHR to Power Market Potential and Target Market Opportunities Presented by: Ken Darrow September 29-30, 2010 icfi.com 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.

2 Topics WHR Markets Industrial Markets Energy Consumption WHR targets WHR to Power examples WHR quantity estimates WHR Power Potential Stationary Engine Exhaust Natural Gas Compressor Stations Summary of existing systems WHR power potential estimate Barriers Conclusions 2

3 U.S. Energy Use by Sector Industrial 30 Energy Consumption (Quads) Residential Transportation Commercial Year 3

4 Industrial Energy Intensity is Declining Btu/$ Production ($2000) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Energy use per real dollar of production has declined by 19% 1998 to 2006 Reasons for the decline Energy intensive basic materials processing has been moving offshore Industry is implementing efficiency measures MECS Survey Years 4

5 Industrial Energy Consumption by Sector Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Paper Primary Metals Metals Based Durable Industries Food Nonmetallic Mineral Products Other Industry ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Energy Consumption TBtu 5

6 Industrial Energy Consumption by End-Use 16% Lights/Motors 4% Lease & Plant 32% Boiler/CHP Total 2006 energy consumption about 26 Quads Process heating is primary WHR to power target 26% of total industrial energy use 22% Feedstocks High Potential Selected Apps. Low Potential 26% Process Heat Source: ICF Some high temp heat generated in exothermic processes with feedstocks Compressor station drives in Lease and Plant WH temperature from CHP and boilers generally too low for economic power 6

7 Sources of Heat Loss in Process Heating Arvind Thekdi, Forging Industry Association Presentation 7

8 Target Industrial Process Heating Applications Calcining Cement, Lime, pet-coke Smelting/agglomeration primary metals, Metal and non-metal melting glass, primary metals, metals casting Fluid heating refining, chemicals Heat treating primary metals, forging, metal products Metal heating forging, metal products Curing and forming rubber, plastics Drying Clay products, wood products, food Process boilers concentrated in refineries, chemicals, paper, food and primary metals 8

9 WHR on Lime Kiln Pleasant Gap, PA Graymont, Ltd tpd lime kiln installed in MW WHR power system 9

10 WHR on Pet-Coke Calciner Port Arthur Steam Energy 1800 F exhaust from kiln recovered from 3 pet-coke calcining kilns 450,000 lb/hr of steam production for refinery process use and also 5 MW of power production Waste Heat Boiler, Unit 4 280,000 MT/year CO 2 emissions offset 10

11 WHR on Electric Arc Furnace Proposed 3 MW system on 50 ton EAF Recovery of 2200 F exhaust gases TESPL proposed system for EAF in India 11

12 WHR on Glass Melter 700 MT/day float glass melter TESPL Installation at St. Gobain Glass, India 1230 kw WHR to Power air cooled ST 12

13 Comparison of WHR Estimates Temperature Range o F BCS Study (TBtu) 77 o F Basis 300 o F Basis UTRC Study (TBtu) 60 o F Basis 300 o F Basis Low < , Medium High > Total 1, , BCS/DOE, 2008 based on 12 target processes consuming 8,500 TBtu/year plus boiler use UTRC/ORNL, 2004 based on analysis of EPA National Emissions Inventory Database, coverage weighted toward large emissions sources 13

14 o F Manufacturing Sector Waste Heat by Temperature < Waste Heat TBtu Source: UTRC/ORNL, F Basis 300 F Basis UTRC 2004 Study for ORNL WH estimated from EPA NEI database Total waste heat to ambient estimated at ~3 Quads/year most at low temperature Practical WH estimate to 300 F is 420 TBtu/year 14

15 WHR Utilization Temperature Ranges Passive Heat Exchangers (> F) Mechnical Vapor Compression Heat Pumps (< F) Absorption Heat Pumps ( F) Organic Rankine Cycle CHP ( F) Kalina Cycle CHP (250-1,000 0 F) Steam Rankine Cycle CHP (>500 0 F) ` Waste Heat Stream Temperature ( o F) 900 1,000 15

16 Theoretical Limits of Work from WHR 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ideal Heat Engine Theoretical Maximum Efficiency Heat Source Temperature ( o F) Carnot Efficiency 16

17 Upper Bound of Industrial WHR to Power Potential ~3,000 TBtu/year of energy to ambient temperatures Theoretical work capability based on UTRC measured WH by temperature at Carnot Efficiencies and 80% load factor equals ~40 GW 30-50% of Carnot efficiency for Rankine cycle (steam, ORC, Kalina) equals GW of power generation capacity 17

18 Summary of Industrial WHR to Power Potential NAICS Industry Source Power Generation Potential (MW) 311 Food UTRC Paper UTRC Petroleum and Coal Products UTRC 2, Chemicals UTRC Nonmetallic Minerals , Glass BCS Cement BCS Lime RED Primary Metals Primary Iron and Steel BCS Primary Aluminum BCS Silicon, Ferrosilicon RED , 3315 Metal Casting BCS Fabricated Metals UTRC 79 All other Industry UTRC 74 Total Power Generation Potential, MW 5, Synthesis of 3 Sources: UTRC, BCS, and RED 5,728 MW of WHR Power Potential UTRC and BCS based on WHR available to 300 F RED estimates based on example plants extrapolated to total industry production

19 Industrial WHR Power Barriers WHR competes with passive heat exchangers that can recycle heat to the process or elsewhere in the facility generally the first approach to WHR Most high temperature WH is dirty and therefore difficult and expensive to recover Industrial processes may lack space and integration with the process may be difficult Batch processes, seasonal operations, and other low load factor processing reduces economic benefits of WHR Heat transfer from atmospheric pressure exhaust gases is less than from hot water temperature ranges that work in geothermal applications will not work in industry 19

20 WHR to Power at Natural Gas Compressor Stations 15 ORC cycle power plants at natural gas compressor stations in North America by designed by Ormat 75 MW from 247,000 HP total compressor power 10 systems under construction or planned equaling 62 MW Information current as of mid

21 WHR Power Potential at NG Compressor Stations WHR to Power Production Rate Installed WHR to Power 75,500 kw Capacity Compressor HP for Installed 504,000 HP Systems Output Potential 0.15 kw/hp Technical Potenial Total U.S. Compressor million HP WHR to Power Potential 2,532 MW Projected Economic Market Gas turbine drive >15,000 HP 900 MW > 5,250 hours/year operation Source: Hedman, ICF 21

22 NG Compressor Stations Barriers Proximity to grid connection Availability of land for the WHR power plant Seasonal load patterns on some stations Small gas turbines and IC engines currently not economic targets for WHR power Availability of RPS or green power purchase agreements 22

23 Conclusions WHR to power potential from industrial facilities and natural gas compressor stations is estimated at 7-9 GW Track record for installing WHR to power systems is much stronger for natural gas compressor stations than for industrial installations where experience, especially U.S. experience, is much lower High priority industrial targets in cement and other calcining operations, glass melting, and metal melters. Large waste heat opportunity in chemicals and refineries needs to be better characterized 23

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