Robyn Jenkins May 2012

Transcription

1 UK Future Energy Scenarios Robyn Jenkins May 2012

2 The UK energy landscape is changing Sustainability Existing power station closures ~25% Affordability Security of supply of total capacity by 2020 Gas from UK sources ~25% of total supplies by

3 The need for change No renewable target 15% of energy from renewables No renewable target 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions vs % reduction in CO 2 emissions vs % reduction in CO 2 emissions vs 1990 Electricity % of end use energy 15% 499 % of end use energy ~20% ~200 % of end use energy ~50% ~15 Gas % of end use energy 42% 184 % of end use energy ~40% 184 % of end use energy ~35% 184 Oil % of end use energy 43% 247 % of end use energy ~40% 247 % of end use energy ~15% 247 End use oil & gas excludes oil and gas used in power generation 3

4 The future: efficiency, decarbonisation and electrification Electricity Heat Transport Smart Meters & Appliance efficiency Insulate and reduce Efficiency and innovation Heat pump Decarbonised electricity Gas backup & embedded generation new homes & retrofit Biomethane De-carbonise heat and decarbonise transport CNG 4

5 Our scenarios Our scenarios are Electricity generation capacity (GW) designed to 150 explore a range of possible outcomes Gone Green: Renewable and carbon targets are hit Electric cars (m) Slow Progression: 2020 targets are not hit until after Accelerated Domestic heat pumps (m) Growth*: 15 Faster deployment of offshore wind than in Gone Green 10 5 Annual gas demand (TWh) 1,200 1, * Accelerated Growth only varies from Gone Green in the mix of power generation all other variables e.g. demand, EV s, heat pumps etc are the same as for Gone Green. 5

6 Gone Green: some key themes 2020 targets 15% of energy from renewables 37% reduction in CO target 60% reduction in CO target 80% reduction in CO Generation mix is radically overhauled Transmission is a key enabler connecting & balancing new, diverse sources of energy Electricity demand increases, driven by electric cars & heat pumps; gas demand declines Distribution network capacity significantly increases Carbon Capture & Storage is deployed at significant scale Significant technology uncertainty, disruptors may emerge 80% reduction in CO2 is achieved Consumer energy behaviour is unrecognisable from today 6

7 Are the 2020 targets achievable? 2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW) Gone Green target Currently connected Contracted projects at an average of 306MW each 78 average projects required (a 60% conversion rate) 2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable Data source: National Grid TNQCU November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage. 7

8 A line of sight to achieving the 2020 renewables target 2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW) Gone Green target Currently connected Contracted Under construction Consents approved Awaiting consents Scoping 2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable Data source: National Grid TNQCU November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage. 8

9 A line of sight to achieving the 2020 renewables target 2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW) Tidal Wave Gone Green target Currently connected Contracted Biomass Woodchip Onshore wind Offshore wind Securing offshore wind, particularly round 3, is critical Data source: National Grid TNQCU November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage. 9

10 Where will our gas come from? Sources of gas change significantly Day to day variability could increase 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 2010/ /21 0% Avg. Sep Avg. Dec UKCS Norway LNG UKCS Norway LNG Continent Unconventional Continent Unconventional Storage 10

11 The transmission delivery challenge existing electricity it network interconnectors potential wind farm sites potential nuclear sites Norway Ireland Netherlands Belgium France France 11