ENERGY SLIDESHOW. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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1 ENERGY SLIDESHOW Updated: July 5, 2018

2 ENERGY PRICES

3 Brent & WTI & Crude Brent Oil Crude Oil Dollars per barrel Brent (Jun 29 = $75.24) WTI (Jun 29 = $74.03) 95% confidence bands for WTI NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 6/29/18. Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.

4 Henry Hub Natural & Marcellus Gas Natural Gas Dollars per million British thermal units 7 6 Henry Hub (Jun 29 = $2.95) Marcellus (Jun 29 = $2.15) 95% confidence bands for Henry Hub NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 6/29/18. Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices. SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.

5 Retail Gasoline & Diesel Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel Retail price per gallon PADD Gasoline Diesel 1 $2.77 $3.23 1A $2.88 $3.28 1B $2.91 $3.39 1C $2.65 $ $2.76 $ $2.60 $ $2.97 $ $3.39 $3.75 U.S. $2.84 $3.24 NOTES: Prices are for 7/2/18. PADDs are Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. Prices include all taxes. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

6 GLOBAL PETROLEUM

7 World Oil Supply & Demand World Oil Supply & Demand Million barrels per day Q World production World consumption Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

8 World Oil Supply & Demand Implied Change in World Oil Stocks Million barrels per day Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

9 OPEC OPEC Oil Production Crude Oil Production & Rig Count Million barrels per day May NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

10 OECD Commercial Inventories OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Million barrels 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 May ,800 2, average 2,600 2, NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

11 OECD Commercial Inventories World Oil Production Outages Million barrels per day 3.0 OPEC May Non-OPEC NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

12 NATIONAL OUTLOOK

13 U.S. Oil U.S. Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day U.S. natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

14 U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count U.S. crude oil production Million barrels per day U.S. oil rig count Number of active rigs 1,700 1, Apr Jun 858 1,300 1, NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 6/12/18. Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

15 Gasoline Demand U.S. Oil & Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) Support activities for oil and gas operations Oil and gas extraction Apr May NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16 Crude Oil & Product Inventories Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Million barrels range average Apr 435 May 437 Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

17 Gasoline Demand Natural Gas Inventories Trillion cubic feet range average Apr 1.4 May 1.8 Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

18 Gasoline Gasoline DemandInventories Million barrels range average Apr 240 May 239 Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

19 Gasoline Distillate DemandInventories Million barrels range average Apr 121 May 117 Jun 118 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 6/29/18. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

20 Gasoline Demand Vehicle Miles Traveled Billion miles traveled Apr NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide. SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

21 Gasoline Demand Gasoline Consumption Million barrels per day range average Apr 9.19 May 9.50 Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 6/29/18. Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

22 REGIONAL ACTIVITY

23 Texas Texas Oil Production Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day Texas natural gas production Billion cubic feet per day NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

24 Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas Oil Production & Rig Count Texas crude oil production Million barrels per day Texas rig count Number of active rigs Jun 530 Apr NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month. SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

25 Texas Texas Mining Oil & Sector Gas Employment Number of jobs (thousands) Support activities for mining May Oil and gas extraction SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics;.

26 12-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 6/30/2017 to 6/29/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.

27 3-Month Total Rig Change by County *Change in total rigs, from 3/30/2018 to 6/29/2018. SOURCES: Baker Hughes;.

28 Crude Oil Production by State NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for April SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

29 Natural Gas Production by State NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for April Series depicted is marketed natural gas production. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

30 Crude Oil Production by Region Million barrels per day Permian Basin Eagle Ford Bakken Niobrara Other areas NOTE: Series depict estimates after April SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

31 Natural Gas Production by Region Billion cubic feet per day Appalachia Permian Basin Haynesville 5 Other areas Eagle Ford NOTE: Series depict estimates after April SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

32 Energy Survey Business Activity In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm s level of business activity increased, not changed or decreased? Diffusion index Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease. Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter. SOURCE:.

33 Breakeven Prices for New Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel Permian (Midland) Permian (Delaware) Bakken $47 $49 $50 Permian (Other) SCOOP/ STACK Other U.S. (Shale) $52 $53 $54 Other U.S. (Non-shale) Number of responses $55 NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 65 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, SOURCE:.

34 Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells Dallas Fed Energy Survey In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? Dollars per barrel Permian (Midland) SCOOP/ STACK $25 $27 Permian (Delaware) $30 Other U.S. (Shale) $32 Permian (Other) Bakken $37 $38 Other U.S. (Non-shale) Number of responses $40 NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 66 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, SOURCE:.

35 Additional Resources Energy Indicators A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector Quarterly Energy Update Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets Dallas Fed Energy Survey A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District Energy in the 11 th District Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin Other energy articles and research Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.

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