TIGHT OIL/ SHALE GAS REVOLUTION. RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 2013
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1 TIGHT OIL/ SHALE GAS REVOLUTION RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213
2 GLOBAL OIL & GAS RESOURCES SOURCE: TOTAL Global resources Liquids Gas ~3,5 Gb ~2,5 Gboe 1 Oil shale Unconventional resources ** 8 35 EHO Tight / Shale Oil Unconventional resources YTF and recovery increase Well defined resources CBM Shale Gas Tight Gas Gboe View 2/3 years before 212 view CBM Shale gas Tight gas Tight / shale oil* Years of production at current pace Already produced * Incl. NGLs from shale and tight gas ** Excl. Extra Heavy Oil & oil shale RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 2
3 OIL & GAS WORLD RESOURCES: CONVENTIONAL SOURCE: TOTAL 33% 14% 12% 8% 3% 3% 46% FSU North America Europe 29% 8% 5% 11% 8% Africa Middle East 7% 13% Asia South America Conventional oil Conventional gas RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 3
4 OIL & GAS WORLD RESOURCES: CONV. & UNCONV. SOURCE: TOTAL 23% 27% 22% North America 2% 3% Europe 32% 16% 12% FSU Middle East 14% 5% South America 1% 1% Africa 7% Asia 17% Tight oil* Extra heavy oil Conventional oil Shale gas CBM Tight gas Conventional gas * Incl. shale oil and liquids associated to shale gas RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 4
5 GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND SOURCE: TOTAL Oil production capacity* 1 8 Mb/d America Middle East Tight oil** EHO 6 Africa Asia, CIS Europe Decline New capacity Spare capacity 5% 4% * Excl. biofuls, CTL & refinery gains ** Incl. NGLs from shale gas RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 5
6 US: STATUS OF UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Oil (source DOE/Total) Gas (source DOE/Total) 9 7 kbpd Bcfd NGL: tight oil & wet shale gas* NGL: other Crude: tight oil & wet shale gas* Crude: other Shale Gas Tight Oil / Wet shale gas CBM Tight Gas Other 2 Onshore rigs in activity (source DOE) janv.-5 janv.-6 janv.-7 janv.-8 janv.-9 janv.-1 janv.-11 janv.-12 Oil rigs Gas rigs *Includes contribution from conventional fields re-developed with unconventional techniques RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 6
7 NORTH AMERICA: BREAK-EVEN* VS. RESOURCES SOURCE: TOTAL BASED ON IHS CERA DATA $ 12 /b Tight oil & wet gas plays $/b at delivery point 1 Wet gas plays Tight oil Gb $ 12 /MBtu 15 Shale gas & gas associated to tight oil plays $/b at delivery point Dry gas Wet gas and gas associated to tight oil 1 5 * Crude or gas prices that lead to an IRR of 1% real term (full cycle) Tcf RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 7
8 NORTH AMERICA (USA): DOMESTIC DEMAND Bcfd 7 Gas consumption vs production (USA - Source DOE) 1% Power generation: gas vs coal (USA - Source DOE) 6 8% 5 6% Pipeline, Lease/Plant fuel Residential Commercial Industrial Electric Power Dry gas production 4% 2% % % Coal % Gas RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 8
9 NORTH AMERICA: LNG EXPORT Theoretical LNG export capacity based on all demands MTPA 25 Shell BC Alaska Petronas 2 Kitimat Colonne1 Post FID (Sabine Pass) Pre FID Authorized capacity (US FTA + Canada)* Authorized capacity (US Non FTA & FERC)* Sabine Pass Golden Pass Freeport Cove Lake Charles Cameron Other GOM projects (Corpus Christi, Excelerate ) * Authorization status February 213: US FTA (Free Trade Agreement) 21 MTPA (including Sabine Pass ) US non FTA/FERC 16 MTPA (Sabine Pass) Canada 34 MTPA RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 9
10 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 NORTH AMERICA: IMPACT OF TIGHT OIL Refineries Total Refinery WTI & LLS vs. Brent Edmonton 14 $/b Puget Sound 12 Billings Saint Paul 1 Chicago 8 6 Cushing Wood River WTI LLS Brent Houston Supply vs. demand* (crude & NGL) Port Arthur Mbpd * 225: Total demand scenario Imports US + Canada production RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 1
11 TIGHT OIL / SHALE GAS: CURRENT STATUS NON EXHAUSTIVE REVIEW Probability of a significant commercial production by 23 Strong Moderate Low! Quebec! New York!!! Example of country or region with hydraulic fracturing prohibition or moratorium RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213
12 CONCLUSIONS Extent and pace of tight oil and shale gas development in North America are flabbergasting Unconventional boom will impact international crude and LNG markets but high prices environment remain most probable in the long term Resources outside North America are potentially huge, but their development should not be as fast as in USA Unconventional resources are a game changer Hydrocarbon resources perceived as less scarce than before Many new opportunities for IOCs outside oil & gas historical areas Lower dependency (or even independency) of North America on Middle East and Russia resources Cheap energy price giving a strong competitive advantage to the American industry RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19,
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