Center for Energy Studies. David E. Dismukes Center for Energy Studies

Transcription

1 David E. Dismukes Center for Energy Studies

2 GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Economic Overview In 2008, over 420 MMBbls of oil and 2.4 Tcf of natural gas were produced in the Gulf of Mexico OCS. Employs over 200,000 workers in the Gulf Coast region. Over 100,000 workers associated with offshore activities. Contributes almost $100 billion to Gulf Coast states GDP. GOM accounts for 30 percent of total U.S. crude oil production. Deepwater areas produced 76 percent of all GOM crude oil production in Note: Gulf Coast states include Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce; Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 2

3 GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Deepwater Exploration Trends Over the past 20 years, the water depth barrier has moved from 5,300 feet to over 9,500 feet. Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 3

4 GOM Offshore Oil and Gas Deepwater Statistics and Considerations Over $1.5 billion in surface structure and equipment needed to service deepwater wells. Drilling costs $80 million to $120 million per well. Drilling crews between 200 to 300 for large drilling project. Structures and wells are typically 100 miles to 200 miles from the coast. Water depths between 5,000 feet to 8,500 feet. Drilling depths of 15,000 feet to 28,000 feet (lower tertiary). 4

5 GOM OCS Deepwater Wells 250 Active deepwater wells are down relative to the earlier part of the decade, but still make considerable contributions to OCS production levels. Number of Wells > 7,500 ft 5,000-7,499 ft 1,500-4,999 ft 1,000-1,499 ft Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 5

6 GOM OCS Deepwater Crude Oil Production 600 The significant increase in deepwater crude oil production has been a major new source of domestic crude oil supply. Oil Production (MMBbl) Deepwater Oil Shallow-water Oil Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 6

7 GOM OCS Deepwater Natural Gas Production Deepwater natural gas production has remained relative constant in recent years, despite the overall GOM gas production plummet in Gas Production (Bcf) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Deepwater Gas Shallow-water Gas 1, Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 7

8 GOM OCS Deepwater Top Producers Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior. 8

9 U.S. Offshore Capital Expenditures The federal OCS, and its deepwater regions, account for a large share of the increasing capital investments for major oil companies. $20,000 $100 $90 (million $) $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel) $10 $ $0 Exploration Development Production WTI Crude Oil Price Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 9

10 U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast Deepwater production is forecast to increase by almost 20 percent between 2010 and Crude Oil Production (MMBbls per day) Projection Potential moratorium-created production risk Onshore Lower 48 GOM - Deep Water GOM - Shallow Water Offshore Pacific & Atlantic Alaska 10

11 Active Drilling Rig Trends in Louisiana N. Louisiana - Land S. Louisiana - Inland Water S. Louisiana - Land S. Louisiana - Offshore Number of Rigs, S. Louisiana Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Source: Baker Hughes. 11

12 Gulf of Mexico Offshore Rig Forecast Moratorium Impact 80 Forecasted activity $160 Number of Total Active GOM Drilling Rigs Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Historical Rigs Baseline Forecast Attrition Forecast Price of WTI WTI Futures Apr-20: Accident Moratorium-forecasted reductions in activity $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- Price of WTI per Barrel Sources: Dept. of Interior, Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, CME Group (NYMEX)

13 Moratorium Impacted Rigs Total pre-spill shallow-water activity currently down by about 31 percent. 70 Apr-20: Accident Other Active - Other Standby Active - Drilling Lost Activity Note: Active-Other includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories; Standby includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories. Other includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories. Source: RigData. 13

14 Moratorium Impacted Rigs Total pre-spill deepwater activity currently down by about 72 percent. 60 Apr-20: Accident Other Active - Other Standby Active - Drilling Lost Activity Note: Active-Other includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories; Standby includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories. Other includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories. Source: RigData. 14

15 Moratorium Impacted Rigs Impacted rigs anticipated to operate in very close proximity to Louisiana ports and support services. 15

16 Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment All Activities 16

17 Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Production 17

18 Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Drilling 18

19 Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment Support 19

20 Potential Moratorium Impacts Louisiana Only 20

21 Potential Moratorium Impacts (Short Run) Potential Parish Level Impacts 21

22 Long Run Issues Associated with Spill Some longer-run issues for Louisiana and Gulf Cost include: Intermediate-run implications (12-36 months) of current drilling moratoria and the decreased economic activity. The impacts that likely regulatory changes will have on GOM operations and costs that will impact investment profitability. Changes in operator liability requirements and the cost of insurance for GOM operations, particularly for independent operators that have a relatively large (in total) economic presence in Louisiana than the majors. New excise taxes, fees, surcharges, and the elimination of drilling incentives such as the Deepwater Royalty Relief Act and Energy Policy Act of 2005 EPAct deep-gas drilling incentives (shallow water, well depths in excess of 20,000 feet). Impacts on opening the Eastern GOM and elimination of potential economic opportunities for Louisiana service ports (Venice, Fourchon) and LA-based service companies. 22

23 Questions, Comments, & Discussion Center for Energy Studies 23