Science for Decisions: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Dr. Marcia McNutt Director, U.S. Geological Survey June 3, 2010

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1 Science for Decisions: Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Dr. Marcia McNutt Director, U.S. Geological Survey June 3, 2010 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2 DOI s s Science Strengths Breadth of expertise, including oil characterization, hydrodynamics, wildlife health, geo-spatial analyses, and risk and vulnerability studies History of interdisciplinary research and model development Institutional ability to sustain long-term, regional-scale research efforts Resource management / science partnerships Land holdings in the Gulf region for natural laboratories

3 Objective of DOI Science Response Document, understand, and predict short and long-term effects of the DH oil spill on wide range of species ecosystems ecosystem services cultural resources coastal communities

4 Lessons Learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Think long term regarding impacts and recovery (1-2 decades) Need to consider both offshore marine and coastal ecosystems and multiple levels of food chain Pre-spill data critical for assessing injury to resources and recovery Natural variation in marine and coastal ecosystems will confound understanding of recovery

5 Pre-Impact Assessment

6 Fate of Oil Spill Contaminants

7 Transport of Oil Spill Contaminants Projections of where surface and submerged oil will travel Oceanographic modeling (working with NOAA and MMS) Inundation models (originally for hurricanes) Coastal zone processes Barrier islands to mainland wetlands Mitigation efforts Building temporary sand berms on/docs/sand_berm_ pdf

8 Near- and long term impacts on wildlife and coastal ecosystems Oil and dispersants will impact all levels of the food chain in coastal ecosystems will have adverse impacts on the resilience of coastal wetlands Determine the spatial extent and degree of damage to coastal ecosystems Some coastal areas will be more resilient, e.g. determine which are the most vulnerable habitats Support the development of remediation and restoration plans Science to support management decisions

9 Impacts on coastal communities Impacts on fishing, tourism, and other economic drivers Impacts on cultural resources, archeological sites, historic structures, and ethnographically significant resources Current community exposure to hurricane hazards Coastal communities one year after the oil spill

10 Tools to aid long-term recovery Integrate geospatial information, such as DOI lands, other protected public areas; natural capital; private capital assets; and coastal infrastructure Tools to facilitate oil spill response efforts, restoration and mitigation activities Modeling tools to evaluate the economic and social impacts of restoration activities Model changes in ecosystem function and economic impacts from restoration actions

11 Products Anticipated products include: Maps, Databases, Ecosystem predictive models Oil volume estimates Products to assist resource management decisions Synthesis reports and articles

12 Volume of Oil Flow Rate Technical Group Federal scientists, independent experts, university representatives Four independent teams developing best methods to assess spill BP provided some raw data Overlap in preliminary team assessments: 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day Assessments to be refined; one team still working to establish upper bounds

13 Flow Rate Technical Group Mass Balance Team

14 Flow Rate Technical Group Mass Balance Team Preliminary Results Methodology peer reviewed and published Assessment formed from data collected May 17 Oil in 15 percent of area assessed, minus that evaporated, skimmed, burned or dispersed Lower and upper bounds: 130,000 to 270,000 barrels total Calculated average: 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day

15 Flow Rate Technical Group Plume Team BP p.l.c

16 Flow Rate Technical Group Plume Team Preliminary Results Limited video for assessment caused challenges Conservative estimates for average plume velocity and gas-oil ratio Established lower bound only: 12,000 to 25,000 barrels a day Now studying recently provided higher quality video to refine assessment, establish an upper bound

17 Flow Rate Technical Group RITT Assessment

18 Flow Rate Technical Group RITT Assessment Preliminary Results Provided lower bound flow estimate by combining RITT readings with observations of oil leaking from riser Flow meters calibrated by third party measured oil-gas ratio in plume Lower bounds of flow assessed at least 11,000 barrels of oil per day May 25

19 Flow Rate Technical Group Nodal and Reservoir Teams Continuing to work assessments No preliminary results available Anticipate initial draft results mid-month

20 White House Science Summit Convened by White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, hosted by EPA Invitation to academic community through Consortium for Ocean Leadership Provided first opportunity for high-level academic input Excellent turnout; leaders (deans, institute directors and presidents) of major research institutes Identified important issues; proposed field programs

21 White House Science Summit Strong agreement on issues that needed to be addressed Toxicity of dispersants and subsurface oil Where is oil going, how fast, what will it be like once there Seafood safety Photochemistry effects in oil Petrochemicals that may interfere with chemical signaling What limits microbial actions to metabolize oil Volume of oil released Long-term effects of oil in the environment Best use of satellite data Effects of air quality of VOCs, controlled burns, flaring gas from RITT, etc Detecting oil that may be sunken in canyons and swept up in storms When is oil a trigger causing irreversible decline to already impacted ecosystem How clean is clean in remediation context; can something be too clean Human dimensions, such as communicating real vs. perceived risk, economic analyses, etc.

22 Approaches Mobilizing UNOLS ships to use sonars to remotely sense oil in the water column, followed by gliders with fluorometers to map subsea oil in three dimensions AUVs equipped with water samples to show actual concentration of dispersed oil in water along with associated microbial communities Oxygen sensors on gliders and AUVs to monitor respiration of microbes insider versus outside of dispersed oil Use of satellites to track oil from space using Synthetic Aperture Radar and other sensors Taking advantage of Ocean Observing Systems

23 Wrap up Questions?