Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Virginia and Chesapeake Bay:

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1 Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Virginia and Chesapeake Bay: Ecosystems and living resources J. Emmett Duffy Virginia Institute of Marine Science Virginia Governor s Commission on Climate Change April 2008 Initiative for Coastal Climate Change Research

2 Rising temperatures in Chesapeake Bay The data VIMS pier CBL pier Bay average warm years Temperature ( C) average year Both the average, and the maximum, annual temperatures have increased by more than 1 C over the last four decades Source: Pyke et al. draft. Climate change and the Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay Program STAC Report.

3 Climate effects on living marine resources Direct effects on animal and plant populations I. Changes in timing II. Changes in distribution III. Decline of foundation species

4 I. Changes in timing Spring is coming earlier in the Chesapeake (and elsewhere) 15 C is the temperature at which many Bay fishes spawn or begin migration Week of year when water temperature reaches 15 C 3 weeks sooner over 40 years Source: Austin, H.M Decadal oscillations and regime shifts, a characterization of the Chesapeake Bay marine climate. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32:

5 I. Changes in timing Animal and plant responses to earlier springs 1468 species studied Average 35-year time span Species of all types of animals and plants are completing life events earlier Source: Root, T.L. et al Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60.

6 II. Changes in distribution Marine fish ranges move north in responses to warming COD In the well-studied North Sea: 2/3 of species shifted ranges over 25 yrs ANGLERFISH All but one shifted Northward Shifting species have faster life cycles, smaller bodies, relative to species that have not shifted SNAKE BLENNY Geographic ranges of many marine fishes are changing as ocean waters warm Source: Perry, A.L. et al Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308:

7 II. Changes in distribution Likely changes in fish distribution in Chesapeake Bay LIKELY LOSS FROM BAY LIKELY DECLINE LIKELY INCREASE Range changes and extinctions are predicted for Chesapeake commercial species Source: National Wildlife Federation The Chesapeake Bay and global warming: A paradise lost for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts? (

8 II. Changes in distribution Northern waterfowl decline in response to warmer winters 1,000, ,000 USFWS 200, , , , ,000 50, Source: National Wildlife Federation The Chesapeake Bay and global warming: A paradise lost for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts? (

9 III. Decline of foundation species Bay grass collapse in response to warming Aug 2005 Heat wave 2005 Heat wave Sea surface temperature anomaly Bay eelgrass near southern limit Some beds have not rebounded from collapse after 2005 heat wave Eelgrass nursery grounds for juvenile fish and crabs have been lost Could we lose eelgrass for good? JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT Source: Douglass, J.G. et al. VIMS. Unpublished data.

10 III. Decline of foundation species Bay grass collapse in response to warming: implications Wildlife Commercial and sport fisheries Almost everything in the estuary depends on seagrass at some stage!

11 III. Decline of foundation species Wetland loss in response to sea level rise Example: Blackwater NWR, Maryland The Everglades of the North > 8,000 acres of marsh lost (~150 acres per year) Combination of sea level rise, erosion, subsidence, salt water intrusion, grazing by invasive nutria Largest population of bald eagles N of Florida Blackwater marsh Blackwater lake Source: US Fish & Wildlife Service (

12 Climate effects on living marine resources Indirect effects and interactions

13 Rising temperatures & tipping points Some general principles Biological responses to change often non-linear Threshold responses may result in sudden tipping points between alternative states (e.g., grass vs. mud) Changes between states may be difficult to reverse, even when pressures (nutrient loading, fishing) are relaxed Source: Scheffer, M. et al Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:

14 Rising temperatures & tipping points Match-mismatch between predators and prey - MISMATCH predator & prey cycles move apart Daphnia Diatoms MATCH Predator & prey cycles move closer - Changing climate can alter match in bloom time of predators and prey, disrupting food chains that support fishery species Source: Visser, M.E. and C. Both Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc. Royal Soc. London B 272:

15 Rising temperatures & tipping points Match-mismatch in the Chesapeake ecosystem? Mnemiopsis jellyfish (ml m -3 ) May 0 0 May April April Jellyfish are blooming earlier, consuming zooplankton and potentially depriving juvenile fish of food May June July Source: Condon, R Ph.D. dissertation, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia.

16 Rising temperatures & tipping points Match-mismatch in the Chesapeake ecosystem? Acartia adults (#//m3) Acartia adults (#//m3) SPRING SUMMER Spring Averages Summer Averages y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = Long-term decline of zooplankton may result from warming-induced jellyfish predation Source: Steinberg, D. and M. Brush. Virginia Institute of Marine Science. Unpublished data

17 Changing climate and complex interactions Chesapeake fish recruitment under different climate regimes Warming trend Bay spawners Climate Index cool dry River spawners Bay-Shelf spawners Recruitment of Virginia s fishes highly sensitive to decade-scale climate regime (temperature, river flows, North Atlantic Oscillation) Source: Austin, H.M Decadal oscillations and regime shifts, a characterization of the Chesapeake Bay marine climate. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32:

18 Rising temperatures & tipping points The case of the once mighty Virginia oyster Landings (millions of pounds) Dermo disease found in Chesapeake VA landings MD landings Source: NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office (

19 Rising temperatures & tipping points Winter warming and intensification of oyster disease (Dermo) Disease proliferates at high water temperatures, high salinities FEBRUARY Temperature (5-yr average) Disease prevalence Warm winter temps appear to favor disease outbreaks Combined overharvesting, disease, climate warming may have crossed tipping point Sea Surface Temperature ( C) AUGUST Disease prevalence (%) Oyster disease predicted to increase with warming, higher summer salinities Source: Ford, S.E Range extension by the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus into the northeastern United States: response to climate change? Journal of Shellfish Research 15:

20 Rising temperatures & tipping points Geographic spread of oyster disease (Dermo) Oyster disease moved steadily northward with warming winters Source: Ford, S.E Range extension by the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus into the northeastern United States: response to climate change? Journal of Shellfish Research 15:

21 Concluding thoughts Climate change is not a future threat. It is already changing the distributions, seasonal life cycles, and interactions of animals and plants on local and global scales. Many of these changes are already disrupting ecosystem services fisheries, water quality, shoreline protection on which society depends. Of special concern is the loss of foundation species such as submerged aquatic vegetation, marsh grasses, and oysters, which form the base of productive and diverse ecosystems that depend on them. We face the prospect that the world of wildlife that we know and many of the places we have invested decades of work in conserving as refuges and habitats for wildlife will cease to exist as we know them, unless we change this forecast [continued climate change]. Douglas Inkley, National Wildlife Federation Dealing with continuing change will require explicitly incorporating adaptive management into policy systematically analyzing and learning from successes and failures, and revising policy accordingly. Expect the unexpected. Initiative for Coastal Climate Change Research

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