MUNICIPAL SERVICE REVIEW AND SPHERE

Transcription

1 MUNICIPAL SERVICE REVIEW AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN PREPARED BY CITY OF LATHROP FOR SAN JOAQUIN LAFCO SEPTEMBER 2009

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... E-1 1. Introduction A. LAFCO and the Sphere of Influence B. California Environmental Quality Act Sphere of Influence Plan A. Determinations Present and Planned Land Uses Present and Probable Need for Public Facilities and Services Present Capacity of Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services Social and Economic Communities of Interest B. Sphere Analysis Existing and Projected Population Sphere Capacity C. Development Projections Municipal Service Review A. Growth and Population Projections Population and Demographics Population Projections Development Projections Determination B. Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs or Deficiencies Fire Protection Law Enforcement Water Supply, Conservation and Treatment Wastewater Collection and Treatment Stormwater Drainage Determination C. Financial Ability of Agency to Provide Service Development Fees SEPTEMBER 2009 i

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2. Tax Assessment General Plan Policies Connection and Usage Charges Special Districts and Benefits Districts Determination D. Status of and Opportunities for Shared Facilities Background Determination E. Accountability for Community Service Needs, Including Governmental Structure and Operational Efficiencies Background Determination References List of Tables 2-1 SOI Capacity Growth Projections Growth Rate Method Growth Projections Housing Unit Method Population and Housing Trends City of Lathrop Groundwater Well Capacity Water Demand Management Measures Water Supply and Demand During Normal Years WDR Recycled Effluent Discharge Limitations WDR Recycled Water Constituent Limits Projected Wastewater Flow List of Figures 2-1 Existing City Limits and SOI General Plan Land Use Map Existing Williamson Act Contracts and 30-Year Horizons Lathrop Population Projection Growth Rate Method Lathrop Population Projection Housing Unit Method Fire Station Locations Police Station Location Lathrop Water Service Area Lathrop Wastewater Service Area ii SEPTEMBER 2009

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Lathrop (City) has prepared this Municipal Service Review (MSR) for the San Joaquin Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) in compliance with the 2000 Cortese- Knox-Hertzberg Act, which requires each LAFCO to prepare an MSR for each service provider with a Sphere of Influence (SOI). This MSR will be used by San Joaquin LAFCO to reaffirm the Lathrop SOI consistent with the City s 1991 General Plan, as amended through December 19, State law and San Joaquin LAFCO Service Review Policies (updated February 15, 2008) require an MSR to make five written determinations. This MSR is organized to provide a section for each of the following determinations: Growth and Population Projections Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs or Deficiencies Financial Ability of the Agency to Provide Service Status of, and Opportunities for, Shared Facilities Accountability for Community Service Needs, including Governmental Structure and Operational Efficiencies 1. Sphere of Influence Plan San Joaquin LAFCO is only reaffirming Lathrop s existing SOI at this time in conjunction with its review of the MSR. The City s SOI contains two primary unincorporated areas, one area north of the City s boundary and one area south. The majority of area (2,185 acres) is located north of the Central Lathrop Specific Plan area and has no General Plan land use designation. There is an additional smaller area northeast of the City boundary (approximately 200 acres) along Roth Road that is designated Freeway Commercial and Light Industrial. In addition, there are approximately 690 acres south of the City boundary prezoned for industrial uses, of which 384 acres are a part of the proposed Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan. In total, the City s SOI contains 3,075 acres of land. The City s ten-year horizon includes the Lathrop Gateway Business Park area, as the City anticipates annexation of this area in the near future. The City s thirty-year horizon assumes the eventual annexation of all areas within the City s existing SOI, including the area located to the north of the City and the remaining area south. Chapter 2, Sphere of Influence Plan, includes the four determinations (Present and Planned Land Uses, Present and Probable Need for Public Facilities and Service, Present Capacity of Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services and Social and Economic Communities of Interest) required by State law for SOIs. As the SOI Plan does not propose any changes to the existing SOI, the determinations discussed in Chapter 2 are regarding the City s ability to provide adequate services to existing and future populations within the existing SOI. SEPTEMBER 2009 E-1

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2. Determinations The following five determinations affirm the City s ability to provide adequate services to existing and future populations within the existing SOI. A. Growth and Population Projections There is a tremendous amount of growth planned within the City given existing entitlements for several large residential projects and future development anticipated in Lathrop, east of Interstate 5 (I-5). However, the major planned residential developments are now on-hold in light of the current economic and housing market conditions. Growth within the City s SOI within the ten-year horizon would be limited to the 384 acres Lathrop Gateway Business Park south of the City boundary. The remaining unincorporated area in the City s SOI would eventually be annexed to the City within the 30-year horizon but there are no current development proposals nor plans to do so in the near term. The MSR presents two growth projections that result in substantially different results. The Growth Rate Projection Method estimates that the City s population would reach 33,852 by The Housing Unit Method acknowledges existing entitlements for a significant amount of residential development and estimates that the City s population would reach 65,434 by the year For the purposes of this MSR, the Housing Unit Projection Method was selected to analyze the City s ability to provide adequate public services as this is the worst case scenario for potential growth in the City. However, adjustments to the City s population were made recognizing the downturn in the economic and housing market. B. Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs and Deficiencies 1. Fire Protection To meet the 3-4 minute standard response time as outlined in the General Plan, the Lathrop- Manteca Fire District would have to expand the number of fire stations and personnel. The Fire District has developed a Master Plan to provide adequate coverage for the potential urban growth of the City. The planning efforts have anticipated the fire protection necessary to provide services throughout the City limits and SOI, and propose a total of four new fire stations. Furthermore, additional personnel and equipment can be added to the existing fire stations to accommodate future needs. The City prepared a Capital Facilities Fees document in 2005 that evaluated the need for fire service in the proposed development and attributed a cost to each development area. The cost would in turn be used for the construction of necessary fire protection facilities for the Fire District. These fees have been incorporated into the City's development impact fees. 2. Law Enforcement The proposed development projects in the City would result in additional demands for police service. Capital costs for new facilities and equipment would be funded through development impact fees and the operational costs would be funded through the increased tax base. In E-2 SEPTEMBER 2009

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY accordance with the General Plan, a new police station is planned in one of several locations to meet future law enforcement demand throughout the City and SOI. 3. Water Supply, Conservation and Treatment The City currently uses both surface water and groundwater as the water supply source. The City's most recent water supply planning document is the 2008 Water Supply Study (WSS). This study evaluates existing and anticipated water supplies and demands and provides alternatives for additional sources of water to meet buildout demands within the City and SOI. The 2008 WSS evaluated the existing water system in supply reliability, and provided water shortage contingency plans. The City identified ten water supply and management alternatives which could be implemented to compensate for the limited use of groundwater. The City plans to implement an optimized combination of these alternatives to ensure reliable water supplies for the future. The recommended water system improvements to meet the City s future demands include the installation of arsenic treatment facilities in the immediate future in Well Nos. 6-10, water blending of surface and groundwater to reduce total dissolved solids (TDS), development of non-potable water sources, and continued implementation of water conservation programs. The City could also implement one or more of the other water supply alternatives as deemed necessary. According to the 2008 WSS, the City would have a net surplus of 2,907 acre feet of water at buildout of the major planned developments within the City and SOI. The City has also completed a Potable Water Master Plan that identifies required infrastructure as new development projects are built. With the 2008 WSS, the Potable Water Master Plan will need to be updated to incorporate the recommendations of the WSS. 4. Wastewater Collection and Treatment Wastewater from the City is currently treated at the City s Water Recycling Plant (WRP-1-MBR), the Crossroads Publicly Owned Treatment Works (POTW), and the Manteca-Lathrop Wastewater Quality Control Facility (WQCF). The City owns WRP-1-MBR and the Crossroads POTW, and 14.7 percent of the WQCF by contract. The City's Wastewater Collection Master Plan and Wastewater Treatment and Disposal Master Plan (prepared in 2000 and updated in 2004) and the 2006 Lathrop 5-year Plan are the primary documents that outline the City s long term strategy for meeting future discharge and capacity requirements for a planning horizon that extends to build-out. The Wastewater Treatment and Disposal Master Plan projects new development would increase the total wastewater discharge to an average dry weather flow of approximately 11.9 million gallons per day (MGD) at build-out. The City has plans for upgrading the existing WRP- 1-MBR to increase the treatment capacity, upgrade the treatment technology, and improve operational flexibility of the plant. With these improvements the WRP-1-MBR would have a treatment capacity of 3.12 MGD. The City also plans to construct a second water recycling plant (WRP-2) with a capacity of 3.12 MGD to accommodate anticipated growth. A total combined treatment capacity is planned by the City at buildout of 11.9 MGD through a combination of expansions at the WRP-1-MBR, WRP-2, WQCF and Crossroads POTW. The 11.9 MGD of capacity would be able to adequately serve the major planned development within the City and SEPTEMBER 2009 E-3

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SOI. The City s current Wastewater Discharge Requirement (WDR) from the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board limits the treatment capacity of the City to 6.24 MGD. The City's wastewater planning documents have been continually updated to identify the collection and treatment requirements anticipated at buildout within the City and SOI. 5. Stormwater Drainage The City has developed a Stormwater Management Plan, Best Management Practices (BMPs), and Stormwater Development Standards to address storm water quality within the City and meet the Clean Water Act National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) requirements. The BMPs are intended to maintain surface water quality discharged from the City. New development within the City is required to comply with these requirements. The City is also responsible for monitoring and reporting on BMPs. The Stormwater Development Standards specify design requirements to be used during development design that, in turn, meet the NPDES requirements for the City. Any significant urban expansion would require major additions to the City s stormwater collection system. The General Plan requires that new development must address stormwater issues and mitigate increased stormwater runoff. Additionally, development is required to construct stormwater infrastructure such as curbs, gutters, and detention basins. These requirements ensure that adequate infrastructure would be in place at buildout within the City limits and SOI. New development would be required to prepare a drainage master plan to serve as addendums to previous master plans. To ensure that appropriate funding is available when public services (e.g., law enforcement and fire protection) and water, wastewater and stormwater drainage infrastructure is needed, developers are required through Development Agreements to cover all the costs of needed infrastructure upfront even if they are only responsible for a portion of cost. Developers are then reimbursed at a later time (e.g., when additional development fees are collected) for any payments in excess of their responsibility. C. Financial Ability of Agency to Provide Service The City has existing funding mechanisms available for the provisions of expanded services to meet future needs for fire protection, law enforcement, water, wastewater, and storm water drainage infrastructure. Law enforcement is funded primarily through tax-revenues in the General Fund and fire protection is funded primarily by property tax revenue, while water, wastewater, and storm water drainage are funded through connection and user fees administered by Enterprise and Special District Funds. The City receives funds for the provision of public services through development fees, property taxes, and connection and usage fees. As land is developed within the City or annexed into the City from the SOI, these fees would apply. The cost of providing on-going services for annexed land is offset by the increased tax base provided by new development. Taxes, including property and sales tax, are expected to provide 66 percent of the City s General Fund for the fiscal year. In addition, the General Plan requires new development to pay its fair share to offset capital, maintenance, and operating costs for law enforcement, water, E-4 SEPTEMBER 2009

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY wastewater, and storm drain. The City s Public Works, Finance, Planning, and Building Departments are responsible for continuous oversight to ensure that the fee structure is adequate. D. Status of Opportunities for Shared Facilities The City has existing and planned shared facilities, both within the City and through relationships with other service providers, including the City of Manteca and San Joaquin County. These shared facilities include fire protection, law enforcement, water supply and wastewater collection and treatment. Multiple planning processes are in place to identify future opportunities for shared facilities that would improve levels of service in a cost effective manner, and contribute to meeting General Plan goals. These planning processes include the City s annual budgeting process, and planning studies for utilities and processes to identify deficiencies in fire and law enforcement services. E. Accountability for Community Service Needs, Including Governmental Structure and Operational Efficiencies The City s ability to serve the anticipated growth within the existing SOI is not expected to have a significant effect on the City s governmental structure or its ability to provide the required services. The areas within the City s SOI are either agricultural/open space or designated for industrial/commercial use and, as reported in Chapter 3 of this MSR, can be adequately served by the City. In addition, mechanisms are in place within the City s departments to effectively provide public participation in the planning and development process to address future growth within the SOI. The City will continue to work with service providers and neighboring municipalities, such as the South San Joaquin Irrigation District and the City of Manteca to address government structure options to provide efficient and cost effective public facilities and services. The City s use of its budget process and long-range infrastructure planning processes ensure that it is able to provide directly, and through contract, adequate levels of service in a costeffective manner within its service areas. Long-term planning processes include capital improvement plans, urban water management plan, wastewater management plan and developer fee review. Contribution to these planning processes by City departments, as well as community input will ensure management effectiveness. The City has demonstrated the ability to work with other service providers and municipalities to ensure that adequate services are provided in a cost effective and efficient manner. Efforts to ensure effective government structure for the provision public services and utilities demonstrates the City s foresight to plan for future services needed for potential growth within the SOI, as well as for the planned development and population increases anticipated within the City s. Assuming the City continues to evaluate existing government structure and seek opportunities for improvement, no significant barriers are expected in regards to government structure during the ten- and thirty-year planning horizons. SEPTEMBER 2009 E-5

9 INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION The City of Lathrop (City) has prepared this Municipal Service Review (MSR) for the San Joaquin Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) in compliance with the 2000 Cortese- Knox-Hertzberg Act, which requires each LAFCO to prepare an MSR for each service provider with a Sphere of Influence (SOI). This MSR will be used by San Joaquin LAFCO to reaffirm the Lathrop SOI consistent with the City s 1991 General Plan, as amended through December 19, State law and San Joaquin LAFCO Service Review Policies (updated February 15, 2008) require an MSR to make five written determinations. This MSR is organized to provide a chapter for each of the following determinations: Growth and Population Projections Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs or Deficiencies Financial Ability of the Agency to Provide Service Status of, and Opportunities for, Shared Facilities Accountability for Community Service Needs, including Governmental Structure and Operational Efficiencies A. LAFCO and the Sphere of Influence The primary role of LAFCO is to implement the 2000 Cortese-Knox-Hertzberg Act consistent with local conditions and circumstances (Government Code Section et seq.). According to the 2000 Cortese-Knox-Hertzberg Act, the purpose of LAFCO is to: Promote orderly growth and urban development Promote cooperative planning efforts among cities, the county, and special districts to address concerns regarding land use and development standards, premature conversion of agricultural and open space lands, efficient provisions of services, and discouragement of urban sprawl Serve as a master plan for future local government reorganization by providing longrange guidelines for efficient provision of public services Guide consideration of proposal and studies for changes of organization and reorganization An SOI is defined as a plan for the probable physical boundaries and service area of a local agency, as determined by the Commission (Government Code Section 56076). In simple terms, an SOI is a planning boundary within which a city or district anticipates to grow over time. The purpose of an SOI is to encourage logical and orderly development and coordination of local government agencies so as to advantageously provide for the present and future needs of SEPTEMBER

10 INTRODUCTION the county and its communities. SOIs serve a similar function for LAFCO determinations as general plans do for cities and counties. An MSR must be prepared to establish or update an SOI, which addresses the five determinations previously outlined. LAFCO is required to prepare the MSR and adopt written determinations either prior to, or in conjunction with, any action to establish or update an SOI. Adopted LAFCO policies emphasize the use of existing plans, data and information currently available for preparation of MSRs rather than requiring preparation of new service documents. San Joaquin LAFCO s procedural guidelines require documentation through preparation of an MSR of the City s ability to meet the requirements of the 2000 Cortese-Knox-Hertzberg Act. The Sphere Plan, along with the MSR and the City s 1991 General Plan, provides the basis for reaffirming the City s existing SOI. B. California Environmental Quality Act Since this MSR is an informational document used for future actions that LAFCO or the City have not approved, adopted or funded, it is considered exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) pursuant to Section (Feasibility and Planning Studies) of the CEQA Guidelines. A Notice of Exemption pursuant to CEQA will be prepared and filed by LAFCO. 1-2 SEPTEMBER 2009

11 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN 2. SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN The Sphere of Influence (SOI) Plan for the City of Lathrop (City) described in this chapter analyzes the City s ability to serve existing and future residents within the existing SOI. LAFCO is responsible for the sufficiency of the documentation and the SOI Plan s consistency with State law and LAFCO policy. In reaffirming the Lathrop SOI, LAFCO must consider and prepare determinations for the following four factors pursuant to Government Code Section of the 2000 Cortese-Knox-Hertzberg Act: Present and planned lands uses in the area, including agricultural and open space lands Present and probable need for public facilities and services in the area Present capacity of public facilities and adequacy of public services that the agency provides or is authorized to provide Existence of any social or economic communities of interest in the area if the commission determines that they are relevant to the agency In order to reaffirm Lathrop s SOI, LAFCO is required to conduct a review of municipal services provided within the City and existing SOI. The standards, policies and procedures for service reviews are contained in San Joaquin LAFCO s policies and procedures. San Joaquin LAFCO requires that the SOI Plan include maps and explanatory text that describe the boundary of the service area and the City s sphere. The SOI Plan must be consistent with the determinations of the Municipal Service Review (MSR). San Joaquin LAFCO is only reaffirming Lathrop s existing SOI at this time in conjunction with its review of the MSR. Detailed determinations as to the City s ability to provide adequate services to existing and future residents within the existing SOI are contained in subsequent chapters of this MSR. The City s SOI contains two primary unincorporated areas, one area north of the City s boundary and one area south. The majority of area (2,185 acres) is located north of the Central Lathrop Specific Plan area and has no General Plan land use designation (refer to Figure 2-1, Existing City Limits and SOI). Currently, this area is being used for the application of recycled water and agricultural/open space purposes. According to the City of Lathrop Comprehensive General Plan (General Plan), this area of the SOI was originally intended for the development of the City s Water Recycling Plant #2 (WRP-2). There is an additional smaller area northeast of the City boundary (approximately 200 acres) along Roth Road that is designated Freeway Commercial and Light Industrial. In addition, there are approximately 690 acres south of the City boundary prezoned for light industrial uses, of which 323 acres are part of the proposed Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan. The Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan proposes 203 acres of limited industrial, 50 acres of service commercial and 70 acres of office and commercial retail uses. In total, the City s SOI contains 3,075 acres of land. Table 2-1 (SOI Capacity) provides a summary of the land uses, acres and time horizon for annexation for the areas within the City s existing SOI. SEPTEMBER

12 A Q U IN B R I G G S C A R L I N I N E D E E N D O S M S L O UPRR $!"^ L I M A CENTRAL LATHROP SPECIFIC PLAN ER RI V L UPRR R O B E R T S OW WILL V E E D IN N KLO U JOA Q U F R E W E R T S AN UPPER ROBERTS ISLAND K R O T H H A R L A M A N I L A N G LE FIS A I R P O R T B O W M A N PRIEST C M A N T WOLFE C R O C K E R E E L E V FR EN CH H SNEED O T T W I N G E Y HO WARD M C K I N L E Y H O W A R D M AT HEW S M AT H E W S GROV E TREE R I V E R E S A N JO L R E I L A T H R O P W IN G LOUISE N S T A D MOSSDALE A LANDING G City of Lathrop CITY OF LATHROP I STEWART TRACT R T E T R A D I S E M Y ay Mossdale Landing South I V E R TO D A RC teew MaIT SE G Y Orop Park N S A C O H E N R JO AQUI PA INE N A W D E L T A E P R M AD U G A h Lat iness lan s Bu cific P e Sp AIRPORT Mossdale Landing East SA RIVER ISLANDS M C K I N L E Y E L A N D H W O O E I V H C R PESCADERO BRONZAN OS S D E AL E D A R W O O D W A R D OU GH R U PR f( & % CA LI FO R N IA L I N E B L E R R Y N I L E V E N T H A E E H RR TO UP E T H I C BR F O PESCADERO P US SL C NE M AN P AI C TO M A R B O R Y Lathrop Sphere of Influence S K A S 0 R R L 7,000 Feet 14,000 Feet Approximate JN O R Z E G City Limits N H T D A N T A N M A C A R TH U R O SCHULTE Source: San Joaquin LAFCO, 2008 E N MC MULLIN U GH Parcels S ELEVENTH SL O G R A N T R M A L D E R L A U R E L MA C ARTHUR P A R UP A I R P O R T ON L M GH SA OU SL O L D R City of Lathrop MSR Existing City Limits and SOI Figure 2-1 A

13 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN Table 2-1: SOI Capacity Land Use Acres Time Horizon 1 No Land Use Designation 2, Industrial /10 2 Commercial Office/Retail Total: 3, Estimated time horizon for annexation to the City acre of the 670 acres would be annexed to the City in the ten-year horizon. A. Determinations This section includes the four determinations required by State law for SOIs. As this SOI Plan does not propose any changes to the existing SOI, the determinations discuss the City s ability to provide adequate services to existing and future populations within the existing SOI. 1. Present and Planned Land Uses Present and planned land uses are appropriate for serving existing and future residents of the City. The General Plan includes goals, policies and implementing programs aimed at managing growth and conserving open space and agricultural land. The General Plan s main concept is the redevelopment and expansion of the City as a New Town. Planned land uses within the City include low, medium and high density residential, office, retail, industrial, commercial and agricultural/open space. Figure 2-2 (General Plan Land Use Map) illustrates the City s current land use configuration. Additionally, given the City s agricultural background, there are numerous Williamson Act contracts within the City and within the City s SOI. These Williamson Act contracts are illustrated in Figure 2-3 (Existing Williamson Act Contracts). Many of these contracts are not being renewed to allow future development of urban uses such as the projects described below. In general, the City has large areas of undeveloped land previously used for agriculture but that have been rezoned for future residential, commercial and industrial uses. There are several large development projects planned for the City. These approved and/or pending projects include: River Islands The 4,995-acre River Islands development would be located west of the San Joaquin River on Stewart Tract and Paradise Cut. The development proposes a mixture of low, medium and high density residential units. In total, River Islands would consist of 11,000 homes. The development also proposes a 260-acre employment center, a 47-acre town center, 265 acres of parks and two schools. The completion date for this project is SEPTEMBER

14 Source: City of Lathrop ,000 Feet 4,000 Feet Approximate City of Lathrop MSR General Plan Land Use Map Figure 2-2

15 Source: San Joaquin County GIS Systems, ,000 Feet 14,000 Feet Approximate City Limits SOI Williamson Act Contract City of Lathrop MSR Existing Williamson Act Contracts Figure 2-3

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17 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN Mossdale Landing Mossdale Landing is a mixed-use master planned community that is anticipated to be completed by Construction at Mossdale Landing began in 2003 and approximately 1,300 residential units have been constructed thus far. An additional 1,236 low density and 409 medium density units are anticipated by project completion. In addition, the development is allocating approximately thirty-five acres of land for two schools, 40 acres for parks, and 25 acres for commercial development. Mossdale Landing East Mossdale Landing East (formerly referred to as Lathrop Station) is proposed to be completed by The proposed development includes 100 existing low-density residential units and will add 151 low density, 293 medium density and 82 high density units. The development will include 6.5 acres of village commercial, 13.2 acres of service commercial and 27.5 acres of highway commercial land uses. Mossdale Landing South Mossdale Landing South is a proposed 104-acre development that was to be completed by The development will consist of 297 medium density residential units. In addition, the project proposes 28 acres of commercial, 25 acres of open space and 9.5 acres of parks. Historic Lathrop Infill and Other Developments East of I-5 The portion of the City east of Interstate (I-5) is anticipated to expand and add density in the future. Currently, this area consists of approximately 2,886 low density and 78 medium density units, commercial and industrial areas, and a few public parks. Future residential growth of this area is expected on undeveloped/underutilized and redeveloped parcels consolidated from large lots where low density residential units would be demolished. All new residential projects are projected to consist of medium density residential units (i.e., small lot sizes). By General Plan build-out, the area will consist of 2,746 low density and 894 medium density residential units increasing the total existing residential unit count by 1,112 total units. Central Lathrop Specific Plan The Central Lathrop Specific Plan proposes development of 1,520 acres located west of Interstate 5. Project completion was anticipated by The Specific Plan proposes approximately 6,790 low, medium and high density residential units and 11.5 acres of office/commercial land uses. The project also includes two schools and 200 acres of recreational land use and open space. Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan The Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan proposes a commercial and industrial development of approximately 384 acres to be completed by The City anticipates annexation of this area by The project proposes approximately 203 acres of limited industrial, 51 acres of service commercial and 70 acres of office and commercial retail uses, which would result in approximately 4.7 million square feet of service commercial, limited industrial, distribution, and research and development related uses, and approximately 920,000 square feet of commercial office and retail uses. SEPTEMBER

18 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN Of the approved and/or pending projects described above, only the Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan is located outside the City Limits but within the SOI, and is anticipated to be annexed to the City by In total, there are approximately 21,370 residential units, 340 acres of office, 150 acres of retail/commercial, 203 acres of industrial land uses, and 542 acres of land designated for parks, schools and open space planned for the City (total includes future development in east Lathrop). 2. Present and Probable Need for Public Facilities and Services The City currently provides adequate services to meet the needs of the existing population. Services provided in the City include fire, police, animal control, water, wastewater and stormwater drainage. New development within the City and within the City s SOI would lead to population growth and the need for additional services. The anticipated tax base that would result from new development would provide the necessary funding for these services. Development fees would address the capital costs of new development, and General Plan policies are in place to ensure the provision of adequate services for current and future populations. For details regarding the City s ability to meet the needs of the existing and future population, refer to Chapter 4 (Present and Planned Capacity). 3. Present Capacity of Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services The City s existing SOI contains two primary areas for growth and development outside the City boundary. Approximately 200 acres are located northeast of the City boundary (adjacent to Roth Road) and contain land designated by the General Plan as Freeway Commercial and Light Industrial as well as 2,185 acres north of the Central Lathrop Specific Plan area with no land use designation, which are used for agricultural/open space purposes. In addition, there are 690 acres of land prezoned for light industrial uses in the southeast portion of the City, of which 384 acres are part of the Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan. The Lathrop Gateway Business Park is within the SOI and proposes development of commercial and industrial land uses. The City does not propose any change to its existing SOI. The determinations included in Chapter 3 of this MSR indicate that the public facilitates and services provided by the City are adequate to meet the needs of the current population, and would be improved so as to meet the needs of future populations. 4. Social and Economic Communities of Interest As the City is not proposing a change to its existing SOI, there are no adjacent social and economic communities of interest that would be impacted at this time. B. Sphere Analysis The following section provides the City s projected development for ten- and thirty-year sphere horizons. 1. Existing and Projected Population According to U.S. Census data, the population of the City was 10,445 in The most recent population estimate for the City developed by the California Department of Finance (CDF) 2-8 SEPTEMBER 2009

19 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN indicates that the City s population, as of 2008, is 17,429. The population projections included in the City s General Plan were not used in this MSR because they are not based on the most current Census data and only extend through As such, the CDF 2008 estimate was used as a basis for the population projections described below for both the Growth Rate and Housing Unit Methods. Two population projections were prepared as part of this MSR using a growth rate method and a housing unit method. The following describes both methodologies and explains which method and corresponding population projections were analyzed in this MSR. Population projections using the growth rate method are shown in Table 2-2 (Growth Projections Growth Rate Method) and are based on the San Joaquin County Council of Government s (SJCOG) population projections adopted by SJCOG in 2004 and the CDF s population projections for However, these numbers were modified significantly to reflect current economic and housing market conditions that have led to the postponement of major planned residential projects, as well contributing to the large amount of recent foreclosures. As such, adjustments to the growth rate were made for these projections. The growth rate begins at one percent of growth per year for the first five years and increase by 0.5 percent increments every five years for the duration of the thirty year time horizon. Table 2-2: Growth Projections Growth Rate Method Year Growth Rate Estimated Population Net New Population Compound Growth , % 18, % 19,729 1,413 2, % 21,780 2,051 4, % 24,641 2,861 7, % 28,563 3,922 11, % 33,852 5,289 16,423 The population projections presented in Table 2-2 take into account the following factors: 2000 Census figures Historical trend analysis ( ) Local growth measures (e.g., Lathrop s Sub-Area Plans) Build-out and zoning spatial analysis Major approved residential projects and projections in advanced planning (as of 2008) Age structure of local populations Local jurisdiction input Current economic and housing market conditions (including foreclosures) Planned residential projects currently on-hold As shown in Table 2-2, the City is expected to grow at a rapid rate over the next 30 years. By the year 2038, the City is expected to add approximately 16,423 people, which would increase the City s total population to 33,852 residents. SEPTEMBER

20 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN Population projections using the housing unit method are shown in Table 2-3 (Growth Projections Housing Unit Method) and are based CDF s population estimate for 2008, the 2000 U.S. Census average persons per household for the City (3.54) 1, approved residential units in the City, and a six percent vacancy rate. This growth projection method incorporates the major residential developments and potential future development in east Lathrop previously described in this chapter (totaling 21,370 units). However, given current economic and housing market conditions, the major residential developments are now on-hold. As such, the housing unit method assumes no new units would be built over the next five years, and that only 13,375 units of the planned 21,370 units would be built over the next 30 years (approximately 60 percent). The majority of the projected growth is assumed to begin after 2023, when housing market conditions are anticipated to be more favorable. Thus, the projections in Table 2-3 show no increase in population in the first five years and an increase of 11,990 people by 2023 and 53,985 people by The population projections shown in Table 2-3 are significantly higher than those in Table 2-2 and represent the worst case scenario for the City. As such, the housing unit growth projections were used in this MSR to analyze the City s ability to provide adequate public services. Table 2-3: Growth Projections Housing Unit Method Year Estimated Population Net New Population Compound Growth , , ,424 5,995 5, ,419 5,995 11, ,424 12,005 29, ,429 12,005 41, ,434 12,005 53,985 As shown in Table 2-3, by the year 2038 the City is expected to add 53,985 residents, which would increase the City s total population to 65, Sphere Capacity Figure 2-1 shows the current City boundaries and SOI. The City s SOI contains two primary unincorporated areas. The majority of area to the north of the City s boundary has no General Plan land use designation and is currently used for agricultural/open space purposes. A small portion of this area along Roth Road contains Freeway Commercial and Light Industrial land use designations. The area to the south of the City s boundary has the General Plan designations of Light Industrial, General Industrial and Service Commercial. The area south of the City s boundaries contains 690 acres of land prezoned for light industrial uses, including the Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan area, which proposes a commercial and industrial development of approximately 323 acres. Annexation of the Lathrop Gateway Business Park area is expected by The project would include approximately 203 acres of limited industrial land use, 50 acres of service commercial land use and 70 acres of office and 1 City of Lathrop General Plan Population and Housing Trends and Projections (Table II-1) were not used in this MSR as these numbers are based on 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census information and are no longer representative of the City s current conditions SEPTEMBER 2009

21 SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PLAN commercial retail uses. The City is not requesting any changes to the land use designations within their SOI. Refer to Table 2-1 for a summary of the types of land uses, acres and estimated time horizon within the City s existing SOI. Neither of the unincorporated areas within the City s SOI would result in a significant amount of population growth. The commercial/industrial area adjacent to Roth Road the Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan area, and the area south of Highway 120 would require the extension of public services from the City, but would not affect the City s ability to provide adequate public services to these areas (refer to Chapter 3, Present and Planned Capacity). C. Development Projections This section describes the City s Limits and SOI at two points in time: at a ten-year sphere horizon, and at a thirty-year sphere horizon. Figure 2-4 (10- and 30-Year Horizons) illustrates the existing City Limits, SOI and the ten- and thirty-year sphere horizons. As shown in Figure 2-4, the City s ten-year horizon includes the Lathrop Gateway Business Park area, as the City anticipates annexation of this area in the near future. The 323-acre Lathrop Gateway Business Park proposes approximately 4.7 million square feet of service commercial, limited industrial, distribution and research and development related uses, and approximately 920,000 square feet of commercial office and retail uses. The City s thirty-year horizon assumes the eventual annexation of all other areas within the City s existing SOI. The build-out of the projects already within the City and shown in Figure 2-1 are no longer anticipated by 2038, as current economic and housing market conditions resulted in the postponement of these projects and may result in smaller scale developments (i.e., less units). Nevertheless, these projects are expected to add a significant amount of new residents to the City through the year In addition to residential development planned for the City over the next 30 years, a significant amount of industrial, commercial and recreational uses are also planned. Although these uses would not increase the City s population, they would require the need for municipal services and, therefore, are analyzed as part of this MSR. According to the Housing Unit Growth Projection method, the City s total population is expected to increase by 5,995 reaching a population of 23,242 by By 2038, the City s population is expected to reach 65,434. However, the existing SOI is not expected to add a significant amount of population growth to the City since the areas within the SOI do not propose any residential land use designations. SEPTEMBER

22 Q UIN B R I G G S M FIS K S B O W M A N C C K I N L E Y WOLFE C R O C K E R E E L E V FR EN CH PRIEST SNEED O T T W I N G E Y HO WARD M A N T H H O W A R D M AT HEW S M AT H E W S GROV E TREE R I V E R E S A N JO A L C A R L I N N O T H E D E UPRR L I M A R E I S ER L D O S L O A I R P O R T N UPRR R O B E R T S WILL OW I R IV E V E E D IN N U JOA Q U F R E W E AN UPPER ROBERTS ISLAND H A R L A M A N N G LE L A T H R O P E S SA T N E STEWART TRACT D A RC FIFTH Y I R T E N S H D A O City of Lathrop CITY OF LATHROP A PA INE C O H E N R D E L T A W A JO AQUI P LOUISE N M C K I N L E Y H L A N D O W E C I V M A N T H E Y R ON L M GH SA OU SL O L D R CAMBRIDGE W IN G I V E T R P A R A D I S E M TO R U AIRPORT C E AL OS S BRONZAN M R E D A W O O D W A R D P A SL OU GH P PR R IN E C TO M A R B O R U ( f & % FO R N IA F SO L I N E B L R Y N I L E V E N T H A E E R H RR TO UP E T H I C BR E Y S Lathrop Sphere of Influence K A S S Parcels R L O R E N Z G N H City Limits U GH E T D A N T A R MC MULLIN 10-Year Horizon N M A C A R TH U R O SCHULTE 30-Year Horizon SL O ELEVENTH Source: San Joaquin LAFCO, ,000 Feet 14,000 Feet Approximate A I R P O R T LI CU CA M AN PESCADERO G R A N T RR D UP A L D E R L A U R E L MA C ARTHUR PESCADERO City of Lathrop MSR 10- and 30-Year Horizons Figure 2-4 A

23 GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS 3. MUNICIPAL SERVICE REVIEW A. Growth and Population Projections This section identifies future growth projections for the City of Lathrop (City) and its Sphere of Influence (SOI) that need to be taken into consideration when planning for the provision of services. A detailed discussion of existing and future municipal services to meet the future demand identified in this section is presented in Section B (Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs and Deficiencies) of this Chapter. 1. Population and Demographics The City and San Joaquin County (County) experienced dramatic population growth between 1990 and 2005 and are expected to continue to grow rapidly over the next 30 years. The following is a discussion of the County and City s historic and anticipated population growth, as well as their demographic profiles. San Joaquin County In general, San Joaquin County s population has been growing at a faster pace than the state and the nation. The strongest growth in the County was in the 1980 s and between 2000 and In general, the County has grown more then two percent per year, which is approximately one and a half times the nation s annual growth over the past 35 years. This trend in exponential growth seen between 2000 and 2005 has been followed by three years of substantial slowdown in population growth. Nonetheless, according to the San Joaquin Council of Government s (SJCOG) Regional Analyst publication, the County is expected to continue growing at a rapid rate as a result of both natural population increases and strong migration. From 2005 and beyond, San Joaquin County is expected to grow at a faster rate than the state and the nation. Between the year 2005 and 2030, the population is expected to grow an average of 1.9 percent per year, well above the state s one percent and the nation s 0.8 percent projected growth rates. 1 It is anticipated that the County s population will triple its 1970 population in 2020 and reach over one million residents in The racial profile of the County has begun to shift as a result of the recent population increase. The share of White population is expected to shrink and that of other races including Hispanic, Asian and African Americans will increase as the County continues to grow. According to SJCOG s Regional Analyst, the Hispanic or Latino population is expected to increase the most with a 10 percent (three percent per year) increase from 2005 to At three percent per year, the Hispanic population will surpass the White population in the County between 2010 and The next largest increase would be the Asian population with a five percent increase by San Joaquin Council of Governments, Research Analyst, July 2008 SEPTEMBER

24 GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS City of Lathrop The City in many ways parallels the historic growth seen in San Joaquin County over the last decade and a half. As such, between 1990 and 2005, the City witnessed an extremely high amount of growth. In 1990, the City had a total of 6,841 residents. 2 By 2005, the City had grown to a population of 12,369, almost doubling its population in 15 years. According to the California Department of Finance (CDF), Lathrop s current population is 17,429. SJCOG predicts a 4.36 percent growth rate for the City over the next 25 years given build out of the City of Lathrop Comprehensive General Plan (General Plan) combined with planned or approved development projects. The 4.36 percent growth rate is more than twice the growth rate predicted for the rest of San Joaquin County. Although the economic downturn has slowed growth, the City is expected to continue to grow exponentially over the next 30 years and could reach a population of approximately 65,000 by year Table 3-1 (Population and Household Trends) illustrates the City s growth and trends over the past 18 years. Table 3-1: Population and Household Trends Year Population 6,841 8,713 10,445 12,810 17,429 Housing Units 2,095 2,598 2,991 3,577 4,917 Average Household Size # Single Family Units 1,687 2,169 2,473 3,059 4,132 # Multi-Family Units Source: California Department of Finance, 2008 (incorporates U.S. Census data) As shown in Table 3-1, the City s population has grown significantly over the past 18 years. In fact, the City s percent increase in population from 2007 to 2008 of 6.5 percent ranks fifth in the state. Also of particular note is the significant increase in residential units in the City, which from 2000 to 2008 increased by approximately 60 percent. The City s population like the County s population is becoming more and more diverse as the Central Valley continues to grow. As such, the racial profile of the City has begun to mirror the changes seen in San Joaquin County, with the share of White population decreasing and that of other races including Hispanic or Latino, Asian and African Americans increasing. With the planned addition of a substantial amount of residential units over the next 25 years, the City s racial composition will continue to evolve. 2. Population Projections There are various methodologies available to project population trends for a city. For the purposes of this MSR, two methods were utilized to forecast the City s population as described below. 2 U.S. Census Data, SEPTEMBER 2009

25 GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS Growth Rate Projection Method The Growth Rate Projection method is based on SJCOG s population projections that were adjusted based on the most recent population projections calculated by the CDF and recent economic and housing market conditions. The economic downturn has caused the major planned developments identified in Chapter 2 (Sphere of Influence Plan) to be placed on-hold and has also resulted in a significant number of foreclosures. Given that SJCOG s projections are over three years old, they do not take into account the current economic conditions of the City, SJCOG s 4.36 percent annual growth rate was adjusted to one percent over the next five years, with increase of 0.05 percent every five years after These growth rates were applied to CDF s population projections and used to extrapolate the City s population by the year Figure 3-1 (Lathrop Population Projections Growth Rate Method), illustrates the City s growth over the next 30 years using the adjusted Growth Rate Projection method. Figure 3-1: Lathrop Population Projection Growth Rate Method 40,000 35,000 33,852 30,000 Population 25,000 20,000 15,000 17,429 18,316 19,729 21,780 24,641 28,563 10,000 5, Year As shown in Figure 3-1, the City s population is expected to increase to a total of 33,852 residents by Housing Unit Projection Method The Housing Unit Projection method is based on CDF s 2008 population projection for the City. This method incorporates approved and/or pending projects that are scheduled to be constructed by As outlined in Chapter 2 (Sphere of Influence Plan), there are several large developments projects proposed, as well as future development in east Lathrop that would result in 21,370 residential units. However, as previously discussed, many of these projects are now on-hold. As such, the Housing Unit Projection Method assumes no new units would be built over the next five years, and that only 13,375 units of the planned 21,370 units would be built over the next 30 years (approximately 60 percent). The majority of the projected growth is SEPTEMBER

26 GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS assumed to begin after 2023, when housing market conditions are more favorable. The number of anticipated units includes a six percent vacancy rate to reflect a realistic housing market condition. The adjusted housing units per year were then multiplied by the City s average household size (3.59), which results in a total population count. As shown in Figure 3-2 (Lathrop Population Projection Housing Unit Method), according to the Housing Unit Projection method, the City s population would be 65,434 by the year 2038, which is more than three times the current population. Thus, the projections in Table 2-3 show no increase in population in the first five years and an increase of 11,990 people by 2023 and 53,985 people by Figure 3-2: Lathrop Population Projection Housing Unit Method 70,000 60,000 65,434 50,000 53,429 Population 40,000 30,000 29,419 41,424 20,000 10,000 17,429 17,429 23, Year For the purposes of this MSR, the Housing Unit Projection method was selected to analyze the City s ability to provide adequate public services under the worst case scenario for potential growth in the City. Therefore, it was used to determine the City s needs and deficiencies outlined later in this chapter. 3. Development Projections This section provides an overview of projected development to accommodate growth in the City. Further detail related to development projections is provided in Chapter 2. Recent Annexations The San Joaquin Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) approved the City s Vernalis annexation in December 2007 to allow the property to be utilized for the storage of recycled water produced by the City s water recycling plant. In addition, the Lathrop Gateway Business 3-4 SEPTEMBER 2009

27 GROWTH AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS Park Specific Plan area is proposed for annexation to the City in the near future (by 2011). There are no other anticipated annexation proposals for the other areas of the City s SOI. Sphere of Influence As described in Chapter 2, the unincorporated areas within the existing SOI consist of existing agricultural/open space, the area designated as Freeway Commercial and Light Industrial by the General Plan near Roth Road, and the Lathrop Gateway Business Park Specific Plan area. These areas would not result in a significant amount of population growth but would require public services. Nevertheless, future development would not result in a substantial impact on the City s ability to provide services. 4. Determination Although there is no anticipated population growth within the City s SOI, there is a tremendous amount of growth planned within the City given the future development of several large residential projects and future development anticipated in Lathrop, east of Interstate (I-5). Growth within the City s SOI within the ten-year horizon would be limited to the 323 acres Lathrop Gateway Business Park south of the City boundary. The remaining unincorporated area in the City s SOI would eventually be annexed to the City within the 30-year horizon but there are no current development proposals nor plans to do so in the near term. SEPTEMBER

28 MUNICIPAL SERVICE REVIEW AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE PRESENT AND PLANNED CAPACITY AND ADEQUACY B. Present and Planned Capacity for Public Facilities and Adequacy of Public Services, Including Infrastructure Needs or Deficiencies The purpose of this section is to evaluate the infrastructure needs and efficiencies of services provided by the City of Lathrop (City), especially as they relate to current and future users. Infrastructure needs and deficiencies are evaluated in terms of supply, capacity, condition of facilities, and service quality with correlations to operational, capital improvement, and finance plans. This section addresses the provision of the following services, some of which are directly provided by the City and others which are provided through contract or special district: Fire Protection Law Enforcement Water Supply, Conservation, and Treatment Wastewater Collection and Treatment Stormwater Drainage 1. Fire Protection The Lathrop-Manteca Fire Protection District (Fire District) provides fire protection for the City in addition to several other areas. The Fire District was established in 1936 to provide fire protection for the township of Lathrop, rural Lathrop and rural Manteca. The Fire District was organized under the laws of the State of California, Health and Safety Code Section 13800, known as the Fire Protection District law of It is governed by a five member Board of Directors who are elected at-large to serve a four-year term. Since 1936 the Fire District has developed into a pro-active Fire Department covering 100 square miles including the City. The Fire District's employees consist of 33 career personnel and 10 reserve firefighters that staff four strategically located fire stations, including two in Lathrop. The Fire District is organized to maintain career personnel on duty, 24 hours a day, year round, to respond to emergencies from the fire stations. The Fire District's main fire station is located in the center of the City. Existing Facilities and Services The authorized career personnel strength of the Fire District includes 33 uniformed employees, one interim Fire Chief, one Division Chief, 12 Fire Captains and 18 Firefighters / Engineers. A reserve firefighter roster of members is maintained to augment the fire suppression force. In the Administrative Office, there are three non-safety employees: a Business Manager for the Fire Chief, a Fire Inspector, and a Fire Permit Clerk. Since the incorporation of the City in 1989, the Fire District has developed plans to provide adequate coverage for potential urban growth of the City. The Fire District service area includes unincorporated areas in the vicinity of Lathrop. The service area also completely surrounds the City of Manteca. If the City of Manteca increases its City boundaries, this will in turn decrease the Fire District's service area, and funding base. In 3-6 SEPTEMBER 2009

29 PRESENT AND PLANNED CAPACITY AND ADEQUACY order for the Fire District to maintain its funding source, funding mechanisms should be implemented if the Fire District service area changes. These funding mechanisms will be determined when LAFCO prepares its MSR for the Rural Fire Districts. The Fire District-wide fire suppression force is organized into three shifts consisting of ten members each. Each of the shifts is on duty for rotating periods of 24 hours. A minimum of two members are on duty at each of the satellite fire stations at all times. Three members are assigned to the main station and three members are assigned to the station located in Mossdale Landing also located within the City Limits. 1 The locations of the fire stations within the Lathrop- Manteca Fire District are presented in Figure 3-3 (Fire Station Locations). The Fire District currently has a response time of three minutes for 90 percent of the population and five minutes of all rural areas. 2,3 The Fire Marshal administers the District s fire prevention and code enforcement program. Plan checks are done by the Fire Marshal along with the more complex inspections. Fire Company personnel conduct inspections and annual re-inspections. Additional fire safety programs include smoke detector installation for the elderly and disabled and fire safety and awareness in the schools. 4 The Fire District responds, not only to fires of all types, but also medical emergencies, traffic accidents, and river rescues. The Fire District is an active member of the San Joaquin County Hazardous Materials Response Team. The Fire District is also part of the Urban Search and Rescue Team. 5 Provisions for Future Growth and System Improvements The Hazard Management Element of the City of Lathrop Comprehensive General Plan (General Plan) includes policies to ensure that adequate fire personnel related facilities are funded and provided to meet future growth. These policies include: Policy 1 The City will continue to give high priority to the support of police protection, and to fire suppression and prevention and life safety functions of the Fire District. Ultimate expansion of the City's fire service is to include additional stations affording adequate response within a maximum of 3-4 minutes to all parts of the urban area. Policy 2 The City will work to maintain a fire flow standard of 3,000 gpm for all commercial and industrial areas of the community, and 1,500 gpm for residential areas, to assure the capability to suppress urban fires. In strategic 1 Lathrop-Manteca Fire Protection District website, September 24, Lathrop-Manteca Fire District, Lathrop-Manteca Fire District Master Plan, Fred Manding, Fire Chief, Personal Communication, January 22, Lathrop-Manteca Fire Protection District website, September 24, Ibid SEPTEMBER

30 Station 33 Station 34 Station 31 Station 32 Lathrop-Manteca Fire District City of Manteca Fire District French Camp Fire District Montezuma Fire District Not to Scale City of Lathrop MSR Fire Station Locations Figure 3-3